Effectiveness of UNAIDS targets and HIV vaccination across 127 countries.

The HIV pandemic continues to impose enormous morbidity, mortality, and economic burdens across the globe. Simultaneously, innovations in antiretroviral therapy, diagnostic approaches, and vaccine development are providing novel tools for treatment-as-prevention and prophylaxis. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the added benefit of an HIV vaccine in the context of goals to increase rates of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression in 127 countries. Under status quo interventions, we predict a median of 49 million [first and third quartiles 44M, 58M] incident cases globally from 2015 to 2035. Achieving the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 target was estimated to avert 25 million [20M, 33M] of these new infections, and an additional 6.3 million [4.8M, 8.7M] reduction was projected with the 2020 introduction of a 50%-efficacy vaccine gradually scaled up to 70% coverage. This added benefit of prevention through vaccination motivates imminent and ongoing clinical trials of viable candidates to realize the goal of HIV control.

Interruption of tuberculosis detection and care during the Ebola virus disease epidemic (2014-2015) in Liberia: time-series analyses for 2013-2017.

OBJECTIVE: Interrupted time-series analyses, using 5 years of routinely collected health information system data, were conducted to estimate the magnitude of impact of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic and determine trends in tuberculosis (TB) care services in Liberia. METHODS: A segmented linear regression model was used to generate estimates and predictions for trends for three TB service indicators before, during, and after EVD, from January 2013 to December 2017. RESULTS: It was found that the number of presumptive TB cases declined significantly at the start of the EVD outbreak, with an estimated loss of 3222 cases (95% confidence interval (CI) -5691 to -752; P = 0.014). There was also an estimated loss of 709 cases per quarter post-EVD (95% CI -1346 to -71; P = 0.032). However, over the post-EVD period, quarterly increases were observed in the proportion of smear-positive to presumptive cases (1.45%, 95% CI 0.38% to 2.5%; P = 0.011) and the proportion of treatment success to TB cases evaluated (3.3%, 95% CI 0.82% to 5.79%; P = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the EVD outbreak (2014-2015) negatively affected TB care services. Rigorous quantitative analyses can be used to assess the magnitude of interruption and advocate for preparedness in settings with limited healthcare capacity.

A review and agenda for integrated disease models including social and behavioural factors.

Social and behavioural factors are critical to the emergence, spread and containment of human disease, and are key determinants of the course, duration and outcomes of disease outbreaks. Recent epidemics of Ebola in West Africa and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) globally have reinforced the importance of developing infectious disease models that better integrate social and behavioural dynamics and theories. Meanwhile, the growth in capacity, coordination and prioritization of social science research and of risk communication and community engagement (RCCE) practice within the current pandemic response provides an opportunity for collaboration among epidemiological modellers, social scientists and RCCE practitioners towards a mutually beneficial research and practice agenda. Here, we provide a review of the current modelling methodologies and describe the challenges and opportunities for integrating them with social science research and RCCE practice. Finally, we set out an agenda for advancing transdisciplinary collaboration for integrated disease modelling and for more robust policy and practice for reducing disease transmission.