Rethinking how development assistance for health can catalyse progress on primary health care.

Global campaigns to control HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and vaccine-preventable illnesses showed that large-scale impact can be achieved by using additional international financing to support selected, evidence-based, high-impact investment areas and to catalyse domestic resource mobilisation. Building on this paradigm, we make the case for targeting additional international funding for selected high-impact investments in primary health care. We have identified and costed a set of concrete, evidence-based investments that donors could support, which would be expected to have major impacts at an affordable cost. These investments are in: (1) individuals and communities empowered to engage in health decision making, (2) a new model of people-centred primary care, and (3) next generation community health workers. These three areas would be supported by strengthening two cross-cutting elements of national systems. The first is the digital tools and data that support facility, district, and national managers to improve processes, quality of care, and accountability across primary health care. The second is the educational, training, and supervisory systems needed to improve the quality of care. We estimate that with an additional international investment of between US$1·87 billion in a low-investment scenario and $3·85 billion in a high-investment scenario annually over the next 3 years, the international community could support the scale-up of this evidence-based package of investments in the 59 low-income and middle-income countries that are eligible for external financing from the World Bank Group's International Development Association.

Scaling up community-based health insurance in Ethiopia: a qualitative study of the benefits and challenges.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has achieved impressive improvements in health outcomes and economic growth in the last decade but its total health spending is among the lowest in Africa. Ethiopia launched a Community-Based Health Insurance (CBHI) scheme in 2011 with a vision of reaching 80% of districts and 80% of its population by 2020. This study aimed to identify early achievements in scaling up CBHI and the challenges of such scale-up. METHODS: We interviewed 18 stakeholders working on health financing and health insurance in Ethiopia, using a semi-structured interview guide. All interviews were conducted in English and transcribed for analysis. We performed direct content analysis of the interview transcripts to identify key informants' views on the achievements of, and challenges in, the scale-up of CBHI. RESULTS: Implementation of CBHI in Ethiopia took advantage of two key "policy windows"-global efforts towards universal health coverage and domestic resource mobilization to prepare countries for their transition away from donor assistance for health. CBHI received strong political support and early pilots helped to inform the process of scaling up the scheme. CBHI has helped to mobilize community engagement and resources, improve access to and use of health services, provide financial protection, and empower women. CONCLUSION: Gradually increasing risk pooling would improve the financial sustainability of CBHI. Improving health service quality and the availability of medicines should be the priority to increase and sustain population coverage. Engaging different stakeholders, including healthcare providers, lower level policy makers, and the private sector, would mobilize more resources for the development of CBHI. Training for operational staff and a strong health information system would improve the implementation of CBHI and provide evidence to inform better decision-making.

Transforming Global Health by Improving the Science of Scale-Up.

In its report Global Health 2035, the Commission on Investing in Health proposed that health investments can reduce mortality in nearly all low- and middle-income countries to very low levels, thereby averting 10 million deaths per year from 2035 onward. Many of these gains could be achieved through scale-up of existing technologies and health services. A key instrument to close this gap is policy and implementation research (PIR) that aims to produce generalizable evidence on what works to implement successful interventions at scale. Rigorously designed PIR promotes global learning and local accountability. Much greater national and global investments in PIR capacity will be required to enable the scaling of effective approaches and to prevent the recycling of failed ideas. Sample questions for the PIR research agenda include how to close the gap in the delivery of essential services to the poor, which population interventions for non-communicable diseases are most applicable in different contexts, and how to engage non-state actors in equitable provision of health services in the context of universal health coverage.

Next generation maternal health: external shocks and health-system innovations.

In this Series we document the substantial progress in the reduction of maternal mortality and discuss the current state of science in reducing maternal mortality. However, maternal health is also powerfully influenced by the structures and resources of societies, communities, and health systems. We discuss the shocks from outside of the field of maternal health that will influence maternal survival including economic growth in low-income and middle-income countries, urbanisation, and health crises due to disease outbreaks, extreme weather, and conflict. Policy and technological innovations, such as universal health coverage, behavioural economics, mobile health, and the data revolution, are changing health systems and ushering in new approaches to affect the health of mothers. Research and policy will need to reflect the changing maternal health landscape.

Preterm birth: the role of knowledge transfer and exchange.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of death in children under age five. Healthcare policy and other decision-making relevant to PTB may rely on obsolete, incomplete or inapplicable research evidence, leading to worsened outcomes. Appropriate knowledge transfer and exchange (KTE) strategies are an important component of efforts to reduce the global PTB burden. We sought to develop a 'landscape' analysis of KTE strategies currently used in PTB and related contexts, and to make recommendations for optimising programmatic implementation and for future research. METHODS: In the University of California, San Francisco's Preterm Birth Initiative, we convened a multidisciplinary working group and examined KTE frameworks. After selecting a widely-used, adaptable, theoretically-strong framework we reviewed the literature to identify evidence-based KTE strategies. We analysed KTE approaches focusing on key PTB stakeholders (individuals, families and communities, healthcare providers and policymakers). Guided by the framework, we articulated KTE approaches that would likely improve PTB outcomes. We further applied the KTE framework in developing recommendations. RESULTS: We selected the Linking Research to Action framework. Searches identified 19 systematic reviews, including two 'reviews of reviews'. Twelve reviews provided evidence for KTE strategies in the context of maternal, neonatal and child health, though not PTB specifically; seven reviews provided 'cross-cutting' evidence that could likely be generalised to PTB contexts. For individuals, families and communities, potentially effective KTE strategies include community-based approaches, 'decision aids', regular discussions with providers and other strategies. For providers, KTE outcomes may be improved through local opinion leaders, electronic reminders, multifaceted strategies and other approaches. Policy decisions relevant to PTB may best be informed through the use of evidence briefs, deliberative dialogues, the SUPPORT tools for evidence-informed policymaking and other strategies. Our recommendations for research addressed knowledge gaps in regard to partner engagement, applicability and context, implementation strategy research, monitoring and evaluation, and infrastructure for sustainable KTE efforts. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based KTE, using strategies appropriate to each stakeholder group, is essential to any effort to improve health at the population level. PTB stakeholders should be fully engaged in KTE and programme planning from its earliest stages, and ideally before planning begins.

[Investing in health: the economic case. Report of the WISH Investing in Health Forum 2016]. / Invirtiendo en salud: el argumento económico. Informe del Foro sobre Inversión en Salud de la Cumbre Mundial sobre Innovación para la Salud 2016.

Developing country governments and aid agencies face difficult decisions on how best to allocate their finite resources. Investments in many different sectors -including education, water and sanitation, transportation, and health- can all reap social and economic benefits. This report focuses specifically on the health sector. It presents compelling evidence of the value of scaling-up health investments. The economic case for increasing these investments in health has never been stronger. Having made progress in reducing maternal and child mortality, and deaths from infectious diseases, it is essential that policymakers do not become complacent. These gains will be quickly reversed without sustained health investments. Scaled-up investments will be needed to tackle the emerging non-communicable disease (NCD) burden and to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). The value of investment in health far beyond its performance is reflected in economic prosperity through gross domestic product (GDP). People put a high monetary value on the additional years of life that health investments can bring -an inherent value to being alive for longer, unrelated to productivity. Policymakers need to do more to ensure that spending on health reflects people's priorities. To make sure services are accessible to all, governments have a clear role to play in financing health. Without public financing, there will be some who cannot afford the care they need, and they will be forced to choose sickness -perhaps even death- and financial ruin; a devastating choice that already pushes 150 million people into poverty every year. In low-income countries (LICs) and middle-income countries (MICs), public financing should be used to achieve universal coverage with a package of highly cost-effective interventions ('best buys'). Governments failing to protect the health and wealth of their people in this way will be unable to reap the benefits of long-term economic prosperity and growth. Public financing has the benefit of being more efficient and better at controlling costs than private financing and is the only sustainable way to reach UHC. In addition, people put a high economic value on the protection against financial risk that public financing provides. This report addresses three key questions: 1) What is the economic rationale for investing in health?; 2) what is the best way to finance health?, and 3) which interventions should be prioritized?

Prioritizing Surgical Care on National Health Agendas: A Qualitative Case Study of Papua New Guinea, Uganda, and Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the social and political factors that influence priority setting for different health services in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet these factors are integral to understanding how national health agendas are established. We investigated factors that facilitate or prevent surgical care from being prioritized in LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We undertook country case studies in Papua New Guinea, Uganda, and Sierra Leone, using a qualitative process-tracing method. We conducted 74 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders involved in health agenda setting and surgical care in these countries. Interviews were triangulated with published academic literature, country reports, national health plans, and policies. Data were analyzed using a conceptual framework based on four components (actor power, ideas, political contexts, issue characteristics) to assess national factors influencing priority for surgery. Political priority for surgical care in the three countries varies. Priority was highest in Papua New Guinea, where surgical care is firmly embedded within national health plans and receives significant domestic and international resources, and much lower in Uganda and Sierra Leone. Factors influencing whether surgical care was prioritized were the degree of sustained and effective domestic advocacy by the local surgical community, the national political and economic environment in which health policy setting occurs, and the influence of international actors, particularly donors, on national agenda setting. The results from Papua New Guinea show that a strong surgical community can generate priority from the ground up, even where other factors are unfavorable. CONCLUSIONS: National health agenda setting is a complex social and political process. To embed surgical care within national health policy, sustained advocacy efforts, effective framing of the problem and solutions, and country-specific data are required. Political, technical, and financial support from regional and international partners is also important.

How much donor financing for health is channelled to global versus country-specific aid functions?

The slow global response to the Ebola crisis in west Africa suggests that important gaps exist in donor financing for key global functions, such as support for health research and development for diseases of poverty and strengthening of outbreak preparedness. In this Health Policy, we use the International Development Statistics databases to quantify donor support for such functions. We classify donor funding for health into aid for global functions (provision of global public goods, management of cross-border externalities, and fostering of leadership and stewardship) versus country-specific aid. We use a new measure of donor funding that combines official development assistance (ODA) for health with additional donor spending on research and development (R&D) for diseases of poverty. Much R&D spending falls outside ODA--ie, the assistance that is conventionally reported through ODA databases of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This expanded definition, which we term health ODA plus, provides a more comprehensive picture of donor support for health that could reshape how policy makers will approach their support for global health.

[Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation]. / Salud global 2035: un mundo convergiendo en el lapso de una generación.

Prompted by the 20th anniversary of the 1993 World Development Report, a Lancet Commission revisited the case for investment in health and developed a new investment framework to achieve dramatic health gains by 2035. The Commission's report has four key messages, each accompanied by opportunities for action by national governments of low-income and middle-income countries and by the international community. First, there is an enormous economic payoff from investing in health. The impressive returns make a strong case for both increased domestic financing of health and for allocating a higher proportion of official development assistance to development of health. Second, modeling by the Commission found that a "grand convergence" in health is achievable by 2035-that is, a reduction in infectious, maternal, and child mortality down to universally low levels. Convergence would require aggressive scale up of existing and new health tools, and it could mostly be financed from the expected economic growth of low- and middle-income countries. The international community can best support convergence by funding the development and delivery of new health technologies and by curbing antibiotic resistance. Third, fiscal policies -such as taxation of tobacco and alcohol- are a powerful and underused lever that governments can use to curb non-communicable diseases and injuries while also raising revenue for health. International action on NCDs and injuries should focus on providing technical assistance on fiscal policies, regional cooperation on tobacco, and funding policy and implementation research on scaling-up of interventions to tackle these conditions. Fourth, progressive universalism, a pathway to universal health coverage (UHC) that includes the poor from the outset, is an efficient way to achieve health and financial risk protection. For national governments, progressive universalism would yield high health gains per dollar spent and poor people would gain the most in terms of health and financial protection. The international community can best support countries to implement progressive UHC by financing policy and implementation research, such as on the mechanics of designing and implementing evolution of the benefits package as the resource envelope for public finance grows.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of screening and preventive interventions for cardiovascular disease in Myanmar: an economic modelling study.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) remains a leading cause of mortality in Myanmar. Despite the burden, CVD preventive services receive low government and donor budgets, which has led to poor CVD outcomes. Methods: We conducted a cost-effective analysis and a budget impact analysis on CVD prevention strategies recommended by the WHO. A Markov model was used to analyse the cost and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) from healthcare provider and societal perspectives. We calculated transition probabilities from WHO CVD risk data and obtained treatment effects and costs from secondary sources. Subgroup analysis was performed on different sex and age groups. We framed the budget impact analysis from a healthcare provider perspective to assess the affordability of providing CVD preventive care. Findings: The most cost-effective strategy from the healthcare provider perspective varied. The combination of screening, primary prevention, and secondary prevention (Sc-PP-SP) (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER]: US$1574/QALY) is most cost-effective at the three times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita threshold, while at one time the GDP per capita threshold, secondary prevention is the most cost-effective strategy (ICER: US$160/QALY). Sc-PP-SP is the most cost-effective strategy from the societal perspective (ICER: US$647/QALY). Among age groups, intervention at age 45 years appeared to be the most cost-effective option for both men and women. The budget impact revealed the Sc-PP-SP would avert 55,000 acute CVD events and 28,000 CVD-related deaths with a cost of US$157 million for the first year of CVD preventive care. Interpretation: A combination of screening, primary prevention, and secondary prevention is cost-effective to reduce CVD-related deaths in Myanmar. This study provides evidence for the government and development partners to increase investment in and support for CVD prevention. These findings not only provide a basis for efficient resource allocation but also underscore the importance of adopting a total cardiovascular risk approach to CVD prevention, in alignment with global health goals. Funding: Pilot grant from Duke Global Health Institute, USA.

Strategic donor behaviour and country vulnerability in health aid transitions.

BACKGROUND: When countries reach the middle-income threshold, many multilateral donors, including Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi), begin to withdraw their official development assistance (ODA), known as graduation. We hypothesised that bilateral donors might follow Gavi's lead, except in countries where they have strategic interests. We aim to understand how bilateral donors behave after a recipient country graduates from Gavi support and how bilateral donors might treat Gavi support countries differently, based on 'strategic interest'. We also aim to identify countries that were more vulnerable to 'simultaneous' transitions and financial cliffs after Gavi transition. METHODS: This is an observational dyadic analysis using longitudinal data. We collected country-level data on 77 Gavi-eligible countries between 2009 and 2018 and paired donor and recipient country in a specific year to conduct dyadic analysis. We included Gavi graduation status and Gavi disbursement as explanatory variables. We controlled for (1) donor-recipient relationship variables that represent potential strategic relationships (eg, distance between donor and recipient country) and (2) recipient-level characteristics (eg, population, income). We used Odinary Least Squares regression, Tobit and two-part model in Stata SE 15.0. FINDINGS: We found a country would receive $3.1 million less all sector ODA from a bilateral donor, and $0.6 million less health ODA, after they graduate from Gavi. For every additional 1% ODA a country would receive from Gavi, it would receive 0.14% more ODA and 0.16% more health ODA from individual bilateral donors. Gavi's graduation status or disbursement brought more change in percentage term to health ODA than to total ODA. Additionally, Gavi's graduation was observed to have a larger negative impact on bilateral ODA in the longer term. Countries that sent more migrants, had been colonised, and received more US military assistance tended to receive more ODA. There are similarities and differences across different donors and bilateral donors tend to provide more ODA to nearby countries and countries receiving fewer exports from the donor. We found that former colonies did not see a decline in aid after Gavi graduation. CONCLUSION: Bilateral donors behave in a similar manner to Gavi when it comes to funding health systems in low and middle-income countries. Therefore, some countries may be at risk of losing donor resources for health from a multitude of sources around the same time. However, countries that have a strategic interest in bilateral donors may be spared from such funding cliffs. This research has important implications for global health donors' funding policies and approaches in addition to recipient countries' transition planning.

Investing in a global pooled-funding mechanism for late-stage clinical trials of poverty-related and neglected diseases: an economic evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: Poverty-related and neglected diseases (PRNDs) cause over three million deaths annually. Despite this burden, there is a large gap between actual funding for PRND research and development (R&D) and the funding needed to launch PRND products from the R&D pipeline. This study provides an economic evaluation of a theoretical global pooled-funding mechanism to finance late-stage clinical trials of PRND products. METHODS: We modelled three pooled-funding design options, each based on a different level of coverage of candidate products for WHO's list of PRNDs: (1) vaccines covering 4 PRNDs, (2) vaccines and therapeutics covering 9 PRNDs and (3) vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics covering 30 PRNDs. For each option, we constructed a discrete event simulation of the 2019 PRND R&D pipeline to estimate required funding for phase III trials and expected product launches through 2035. For each launch, we estimated global PRND treatment costs averted, deaths averted and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. For each design option, we calculated the cost per death averted, cost per DALY averted, the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: Option 1 averts 18.4 million deaths and 516 million DALYs, has a cost per DALY averted of US$84 and yields a BCR of 5.53. Option 2 averts 22.9 million deaths and 674 million DALYs, has a cost per DALY averted of US$75, an ICER over option 1 of US$49 and yields a BCR of 3.88. Option 3 averts 26.9 million deaths and 1 billion DALYs, has a cost per DALY averted of US$114, an ICER over option 2 of US$186 and yields a BCR of 2.52. CONCLUSIONS: All 3 options for a pooled-funding mechanism-vaccines for 4 PRNDs, vaccines and therapeutics for 9 PRNDs, and vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics for 30 PRNDs-would generate a large return on investment, avert a substantial proportion of the global burden of morbidity and mortality for diseases of poverty and be cost-effective.

Is Nigeria on course to achieve universal health coverage in the context of its epidemiological and financing transition? A knowledge, capacity and policy gap analysis (a qualitative study).

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess Nigeria's preparedness to finance and drive the universal health coverage (UHC) agenda within the context of changing health conditions and resource needs associated with the disease, demographic and funding transitions.Nigeria is undergoing transitions in the healthcare system that include a double burden of infectious and non-communicable diseases, and transition from concessional donor assistance towards domestic financing for health. These transitions will affect Nigeria's attainment of UHC. DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a qualitative study, including semistructured interviews with relevant stakeholders at national and subnational levels in Nigeria. Data from the interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Our study involved 18 respondents from government ministries, departments, and agencies, development partners, civil society organisations and academia. RESULTS: Capacity gaps identified by respondents included limited knowledge to implement health insurance schemes at subnational levels, poor information/data management to monitor progress towards UHC and limited communication and interagency collaboration between government agencies and ministries. Furthermore, participants in our study expressed those current policies driving major health reforms like the National Health Act (basic healthcare provision fund) appear adequate to support UHC advancement in theory, but policy implementation is a key challenge due to a lack of policy awareness, low government spending on health and poor evidence generation for information to support decisions. CONCLUSION: Our study found major gaps in knowledge and capacity for UHC advancement in the context of Nigeria's demographic, epidemiological and financing transitions. These included poor knowledge of demographic transitions, poor capacity for health insurance implementation at subnational levels, low government spending on health, poor policy implementation and poor communication and collaboration among stakeholders. To address these challenges, collaborative efforts are needed to bridge knowledge gaps and increase policy awareness through targeted knowledge products, improved communication and interagency collaboration.

Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes.

BACKGROUND: Considerable declines in malaria have accompanied increased funding for control since the year 2000, but historical failures to maintain gains against the disease underscore the fragility of these successes. Although malaria transmission can be suppressed by effective control measures, in the absence of active intervention malaria will return to an intrinsic equilibrium determined by factors related to ecology, efficiency of mosquito vectors, and socioeconomic characteristics. Understanding where and why resurgence has occurred historically can help current and future malaria control programmes avoid the mistakes of the past. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify historical malaria resurgence events. All suggested causes of these events were categorized according to whether they were related to weakened malaria control programmes, increased potential for malaria transmission, or technical obstacles like resistance. RESULTS: The review identified 75 resurgence events in 61 countries, occurring from the 1930s through the 2000s. Almost all resurgence events (68/75 = 91%) were attributed at least in part to the weakening of malaria control programmes for a variety of reasons, of which resource constraints were the most common (39/68 = 57%). Over half of the events (44/75 = 59%) were attributed in part to increases in the intrinsic potential for malaria transmission, while only 24/75 (32%) were attributed to vector or drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Given that most malaria resurgences have been linked to weakening of control programmes, there is an urgent need to develop practical solutions to the financial and operational threats to effectively sustaining today's successful malaria control programmes.

The impacts of donor transitions on health systems in middle-income countries: a scoping review.

As countries graduate from low-income to middle-income status, many face losses in development assistance for health and must 'transition' to greater domestic funding of their health response. If improperly managed, donor transitions in middle-income countries (MICs) could present significant challenges to global health progress. No prior knowledge synthesis has comprehensively surveyed how donor transitions can affect health systems in MICs. We conducted a scoping review using a structured search strategy across five academic databases and 37 global health donor and think tank websites for literature published between January 1990 and October 2018. We used the World Health Organization health system 'building blocks' framework to thematically synthesize and structure the analysis. Following independent screening, 89 publications out of 11 236 were included for data extraction and synthesis. Most of this evidence examines transitions related to human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS; n = 45, 50%) and immunization programmes (n = 14, 16%), with a focus on donors such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (n = 26, 29%) and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (n = 15, 17%). Donor transitions are influenced by the actions of both donors and country governments, with impacts on every component of the health system. Successful transition experiences show that leadership, planning, and pre-transition investments in a country's financial, technical, and logistical capacity are vital to ensuring smooth transition. In the absence of such measures, shortages in financial resources, medical product and supply stock-outs, service disruptions, and shortages in human resources were common, with resulting implications not only for programme continuation, but also for population health. Donor transitions can affect different components of the health system in varying and interconnected ways. More rigorous evaluation of how donor transitions can affect health systems in MICs will create an improved understanding of the risks and opportunities posed by donor exits.

Scaling up global health interventions: a proposed framework for success.

Drawing upon interviews with experts and a review of the literature, Gavin Yamey proposes a new framework for scaling up global health interventions.