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1.
Nature ; 609(7926): 299-306, 2022 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36071193

RESUMO

The potential of mitigation actions to limit global warming within 2 °C (ref. 1) might rely on the abundant supply of biomass for large-scale bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) that is assumed to scale up markedly in the future2-5. However, the detrimental effects of climate change on crop yields may reduce the capacity of BECCS and threaten food security6-8, thus creating an unrecognized positive feedback loop on global warming. We quantified the strength of this feedback by implementing the responses of crop yields to increases in growing-season temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration and intensity of nitrogen (N) fertilization in a compact Earth system model9. Exceeding a threshold of climate change would cause transformative changes in social-ecological systems by jeopardizing climate stability and threatening food security. If global mitigation alongside large-scale BECCS is delayed to 2060 when global warming exceeds about 2.5 °C, then the yields of agricultural residues for BECCS would be too low to meet the Paris goal of 2 °C by 2200. This risk of failure is amplified by the sustained demand for food, leading to an expansion of cropland or intensification of N fertilization to compensate for climate-induced yield losses. Our findings thereby reinforce the urgency of early mitigation, preferably by 2040, to avoid irreversible climate change and serious food crises unless other negative-emission technologies become available in the near future to compensate for the reduced capacity of BECCS.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Produtos Agrícolas , Segurança Alimentar , Aquecimento Global , Agricultura/métodos , Agricultura/tendências , Atmosfera/química , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Sequestro de Carbono , Produtos Agrícolas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Ecossistema , Retroalimentação , Segurança Alimentar/métodos , Aquecimento Global/prevenção & controle , Aquecimento Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Objetivos , Humanos , Nitrogênio/análise , Estações do Ano , Temperatura , Fatores de Tempo
2.
Nature ; 610(7932): 507-512, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36261550

RESUMO

Excessive agricultural nitrogen use causes environmental problems globally1, to an extent that it has been suggested that a safe planetary boundary has been exceeded2. Earlier estimates for the planetary nitrogen boundary3,4, however, did not account for the spatial variability in both ecosystems' sensitivity to nitrogen pollution and agricultural nitrogen losses. Here we use a spatially explicit model to establish regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen surplus from thresholds for eutrophication of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and nitrate in groundwater. We estimate regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen pollution and find both overuse and room for intensification of agricultural nitrogen. The aggregated global surplus boundary with respect to all thresholds is 43 megatonnes of nitrogen per year, which is 64 per cent lower than the current (2010) nitrogen surplus (119 megatonnes of nitrogen per year). Allowing the nitrogen surplus to increase to close yield gaps in regions where environmental thresholds are not exceeded lifts the planetary nitrogen boundary to 57 megatonnes of nitrogen per year. Feeding the world without trespassing regional and planetary nitrogen boundaries requires large increases in nitrogen use efficiencies accompanied by mitigation of non-agricultural nitrogen sources such as sewage water. This asks for coordinated action that recognizes the heterogeneity of agricultural systems, non-agricultural nitrogen losses and environmental vulnerabilities.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Ecossistema , Poluição Ambiental , Água Subterrânea , Nitrogênio , Agricultura/legislação & jurisprudência , Agricultura/métodos , Planeta Terra , Poluentes Ambientais/análise , Poluentes Ambientais/provisão & distribuição , Poluição Ambiental/análise , Poluição Ambiental/legislação & jurisprudência , Poluição Ambiental/prevenção & controle , Eutrofização , Água Subterrânea/química , Nitratos/análise , Nitrogênio/análise , Esgotos/química , Água/química , Abastecimento de Alimentos
5.
Annu Rev Public Health ; 45(1): 375-400, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38166503

RESUMO

Food insecurity affects an estimated 691-783 million people globally and is disproportionately high in Africa and Asia. It arises from poverty, armed conflict, and climate change, among other demographic and globalization forces. This review summarizes evidence for policies and practices across five elements of the agrifood system framework and identifies gaps that inform an agenda for future research. Under availability, imbalanced agriculture policies protect primarily staple food producers, and there is limited evidence on food security impacts for smallholder and women food producers. Evidence supports the use of cash transfers and food aid for affordability and school feeding for multiple benefits. Food-based dietary guidelines can improve the nutritional quality of dietary patterns, yet they may not reflect the latest evidence or food supplies. Evidence from the newer food environment elements, promotion and sustainability, while relatively minimal, provides insight into achieving long-term impacts. To eliminate hunger, our global community should embrace integrated approaches and bring evidence-based policies and practices to scale.


Assuntos
Insegurança Alimentar , Humanos , Saúde Global , Abastecimento de Alimentos/normas , Política Nutricional , Agricultura , Assistência Alimentar/organização & administração
6.
New Phytol ; 243(4): 1506-1521, 2024 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38874414

RESUMO

Intercropping leads to different plant roots directly influencing belowground processes and has gained interest for its promotion of increased crop yields and resource utilization. However, the precise mechanisms through which the interactions between rhizosphere metabolites and the microbiome contribute to plant production remain ambiguous, thus impeding the understanding of the yield-enhancing advantages of intercropping. This study conducted field experiments (initiated in 2013) and pot experiments, coupled with multi-omics analysis, to investigate plant-metabolite-microbiome interactions in the rhizosphere of maize. Field-based data revealed significant differences in metabolite and microbiome profiles between the rhizosphere soils of maize monoculture and intercropping. In particular, intercropping soils exhibited higher microbial diversity and metabolite chemodiversity. The chemodiversity and composition of rhizosphere metabolites were significantly related to the diversity, community composition, and network complexity of soil microbiomes, and this relationship further impacted plant nutrient uptake. Pot-based findings demonstrated that the exogenous application of a metabolic mixture comprising key components enriched by intercropping (soyasapogenol B, 6-hydroxynicotinic acid, lycorine, shikimic acid, and phosphocreatine) significantly enhanced root activity, nutrient content, and biomass of maize in natural soil, but not in sterilized soil. Overall, this study emphasized the significance of rhizosphere metabolite-microbe interactions in enhancing yields in intercropping systems. It can provide new insights into rhizosphere controls within intensive agroecosystems, aiming to enhance crop production and ecosystem services.


Assuntos
Microbiota , Rizosfera , Microbiologia do Solo , Zea mays , Zea mays/microbiologia , Zea mays/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Zea mays/metabolismo , Nutrientes/metabolismo , Raízes de Plantas/microbiologia , Raízes de Plantas/metabolismo , Raízes de Plantas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Agricultura/métodos , Solo/química , Biomassa
7.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(1): e16992, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37902125

RESUMO

The EU Soil Strategy 2030 aims to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural land to enhance soil health and support biodiversity as well as to offset greenhouse gas emissions through soil carbon sequestration. Therefore, the quantification of current SOC stocks and the spatial identification of the main drivers of SOC changes is paramount in the preparation of agricultural policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems in the EU. In this context, changes of SOC stocks (Δ SOCs) for the EU + UK between 2009 and 2018 were estimated by fitting a quantile generalized additive model (qGAM) on data obtained from the revisited points of the Land Use/Land Cover Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) performed in 2009, 2015 and 2018. The analysis of the partial effects derived from the fitted qGAM model shows that land use and land use change observed in the 2009, 2015 and 2018 LUCAS campaigns (i.e. continuous grassland [GGG] or cropland [CCC], conversion grassland to cropland (GGC or GCC) and vice versa [CGG or CCG]) was one of the main drivers of SOC changes. The CCC was the factor that contributed to the lowest negative change on Δ SOC with an estimated partial effect of -0.04 ± 0.01 g C kg-1 year-1 , while the GGG the highest positive change with an estimated partial effect of 0.49 ± 0.02 g C kg-1 year-1 . This confirms the C sequestration potential of converting cropland to grassland. However, it is important to consider that local soil and environmental conditions may either diminish or enhance the grassland's positive effect on soil C storage. In the EU + UK, the estimated current (2018) topsoil (0-20 cm) SOC stock in agricultural land below 1000 m a.s.l was 9.3 Gt, with a Δ SOC of -0.75% in the period 2009-2018. The highest estimated SOC losses were concentrated in central-northern countries, while marginal losses were observed in the southeast.


Assuntos
Carbono , Solo , Pradaria , Agricultura , Sequestro de Carbono , Produtos Agrícolas
8.
Int J Equity Health ; 23(1): 31, 2024 Feb 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38365766

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Migrant seasonal agricultural workers face conditions of material vulnerability such as inadequate housing difficulties prevent access to running water supplies. The purpose of this study is to explore the perceptions of professionals involved in the care and support of seasonal migrant agricultural workers, as it relates to water access and water consumption and their impact on these workers' health, in a context of COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A qualitative exploratory and descriptive study was conducted in 2021 as part of a larger research project, based on 63 personal semi-structured interviews with professionals who provided support to seasonal migrant agricultural workers in three Spanish autonomous regions. COREQ checklist was used for reporting. The interviews were recorded, transcribed, and imported into ATLAS.ti-9 for an inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: The results have been structured into two main themes: (1) Accessing and obtaining water; and (2) Health problems related to water consumption. Seasonal migrant agricultural workers experience barriers to obtaining safe water for hygiene, cleaning, food preparation and drinking. The implementation of regulations to reduce COVID-19 transmission resulted in improved hygiene levels in the migrants' quarters, including access to safe drinking water. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that water insecurity experienced by migrant seasonal agricultural workers in Spain results from their poor living conditions and causes health problems related to a lack of hygiene and the use of unsafe water. Sustainable solutions are needed beyond the pandemic in order to provide migrant workers with adequate living conditions and ensure their water needs are fulfilled.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Migrantes , Humanos , Fazendeiros , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Pandemias , Insegurança Hídrica , Estações do Ano , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Agricultura
12.
Nature ; 564(7735): 249-253, 2018 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30542169

RESUMO

Land-use changes are critical for climate policy because native vegetation and soils store abundant carbon and their losses from agricultural expansion, together with emissions from agricultural production, contribute about 20 to 25 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions1,2. Most climate strategies require maintaining or increasing land-based carbon3 while meeting food demands, which are expected to grow by more than 50 per cent by 20501,2,4. A finite global land area implies that fulfilling these strategies requires increasing global land-use efficiency of both storing carbon and producing food. Yet measuring the efficiency of land-use changes from the perspective of greenhouse gas emissions is challenging, particularly when land outputs change, for example, from one food to another or from food to carbon storage in forests. Intuitively, if a hectare of land produces maize well and forest poorly, maize should be the more efficient use of land, and vice versa. However, quantifying this difference and the yields at which the balance changes requires a common metric that factors in different outputs, emissions from different agricultural inputs (such as fertilizer) and the different productive potentials of land due to physical factors such as rainfall or soils. Here we propose a carbon benefits index that measures how changes in the output types, output quantities and production processes of a hectare of land contribute to the global capacity to store carbon and to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions. This index does not evaluate biodiversity or other ecosystem values, which must be analysed separately. We apply the index to a range of land-use and consumption choices relevant to climate policy, such as reforesting pastures, biofuel production and diet changes. We find that these choices can have much greater implications for the climate than previously understood because standard methods for evaluating the effects of land use4-11 on greenhouse gas emissions systematically underestimate the opportunity of land to store carbon if it is not used for agriculture.


Assuntos
Agricultura/estatística & dados numéricos , Biocombustíveis/estatística & dados numéricos , Pegada de Carbono/estatística & dados numéricos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Dieta/estatística & dados numéricos , Efeito Estufa/prevenção & controle , Solo/química , Animais , Biocombustíveis/provisão & distribuição , Brasil , Sequestro de Carbono , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/estatística & dados numéricos , Produtos Agrícolas/metabolismo , Fertilizantes/provisão & distribuição , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Agricultura Florestal/estatística & dados numéricos , Florestas , Aquecimento Global/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Gado/metabolismo , Chuva
13.
Environ Res ; 250: 118528, 2024 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38403150

RESUMO

Agriculture is a leading sector in international initiatives to mitigate climate change and promote sustainability. This article exhaustively examines the removals and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the agriculture industry. It also investigates an extensive range of GHG sources, including rice cultivation, enteric fermentation in livestock, and synthetic fertilisers and manure management. This research reveals the complex array of obstacles that are faced in the pursuit of reducing emissions and also investigates novel approaches to tackling them. This encompasses the implementation of monitoring systems powered by artificial intelligence, which have the capacity to fundamentally transform initiatives aimed at reducing emissions. Carbon capture technologies, another area investigated in this study, exhibit potential in further reducing GHGs. Sophisticated technologies, such as precision agriculture and the integration of renewable energy sources, can concurrently mitigate emissions and augment agricultural output. Conservation agriculture and agroforestry, among other sustainable agricultural practices, have the potential to facilitate emission reduction and enhance environmental stewardship. The paper emphasises the significance of financial incentives and policy frameworks that are conducive to the adoption of sustainable technologies and practices. This exhaustive evaluation provides a strategic plan for the agriculture industry to become more environmentally conscious and sustainable. Agriculture can significantly contribute to climate change mitigation and the promotion of a sustainable future by adopting a comprehensive approach that incorporates policy changes, technological advancements, and technological innovations.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Inteligência Artificial , Gases de Efeito Estufa , Gases de Efeito Estufa/análise , Agricultura/métodos , Mudança Climática , Desenvolvimento Sustentável/tendências , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Efeito Estufa , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos
14.
Phytopathology ; 114(2): 340-347, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38349678

RESUMO

Soilborne diseases cause significant economic losses in agricultural production around the world. They are difficult to control because a host plant is invaded by multiple pathogens, and chemical control often does not work well. In this study, we isolated and identified an endophytic Streptomyces sp. NEAU-DD186 from moss, which showed broad-spectrum antifungal activity against 17 soilborne phytopathogenic fungi, with Bipolaris sorokiniana being the most prominent. The strain also exhibited strong antibacterial activity against soilborne phytopathogenic bacteria Ralstonia solanacearum. To evaluate its biocontrol potential, the strain was prepared into biofertilizer by solid-state fermentation. Response surface methodology was employed to optimize the fermentation conditions for maximizing spore production and revealed that the 1:1 ratio of vermicompost to wheat bran, a temperature of 28°C, and 50% water content with an inoculation amount of 15% represented the optimal parameters. Pot experiments showed that the application of biofertilizer with a spore concentration of 108 CFU/g soil could effectively suppress the occurrence of tomato bacterial wilt caused by R. solanacearum and wheat root rot caused by B. sorokiniana, and the biocontrol efficacy was 81.2 and 72.2%, respectively. Chemical analysis of strain NEAU-DD186 extracts using nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry and mass analysis indicated that 25-O-malonylguanidylfungin A and 23-O-malonylguanidylfungin A were the main active constituents, which showed high activity against R. solanacearum (EC50 of 2.46 and 2.58 µg ml-1) and B. sorokiniana (EC50 of 3.92 and 3.95 µg ml-1). In conclusion, this study demonstrates that Streptomyces sp. NEAU-DD186 can be developed as biofertilizer to control soilborne diseases.


Assuntos
Doenças das Plantas , Streptomyces , Doenças das Plantas/prevenção & controle , Agricultura , Antibacterianos , Antifúngicos
15.
Phytopathology ; 114(5): 843-854, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38648074

RESUMO

Climate change is having a significant impact on global agriculture, particularly on vegetable crops, which play a critical role in global nutrition. Recently, increasing research has concentrated on the impact of climate change on vegetable crop diseases, with several studies being conducted in phytotrons, which have been used to explore the effects of increased temperatures and CO2 concentrations to simulate future scenarios. This review focuses on the combined effects of temperature and carbon dioxide increases on foliar and soilborne vegetable diseases, as evaluated under phytotron conditions. The influence of climate change on mycotoxin production and disease management strategies is also explored through case studies. The results offer valuable information that can be used to guide both seed and agrochemical industries, as well as to develop disease-resistant varieties and innovative control measures, including biocontrol agents, considering the diseases that are likely to become prevalent under future climatic scenarios. Recommendations on how to manage vegetable diseases under ongoing climate change are proposed to facilitate plants' adaptation to and enhanced against the changing conditions. A proactive and comprehensive response to climate-induced challenges in vegetable farming is imperative to ensure food security and sustainability.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Mudança Climática , Produtos Agrícolas , Doenças das Plantas , Verduras , Doenças das Plantas/prevenção & controle , Produtos Agrícolas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Temperatura , Micotoxinas/análise
16.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 673, 2024 Mar 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38431599

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Farmers face numerous barriers to accessing professional mental health services and instead report a preference for informal support systems, such as lay or peer networks. Farmers also experience barriers to investing time in maintaining or improving their wellbeing, stemming from sociocultural norms and attitudes that are widespread in agricultural communities. The Vocal Locals social network campaign is an ifarmwell initiative that aims to promote conversations about wellbeing and challenge attitudes and behaviours that contribute to farmers' poor mental health. METHODS: The Vocal Locals campaign was underpinned by the socio-ecological model which explains human behaviour as stemming from interactions between the individual, their closest social circle, the community, and broader society. The campaign ran in Loxton, South Australia, from June to August 2022. Ten community members (8/10 farmers) became 'Vocal Locals' and were supported to share 'calls-to-action' to encourage people in their social networks to engage in wellbeing-promoting activities. A broader communications campaign reinforced key messages and amplified Vocal Locals' activities in the community. The intrapersonal and community-level impacts of the campaign were evaluated via pre- and post-campaign surveys of Vocal Locals and community members respectively. RESULTS: Vocal Locals reported significantly lower psychological distress (p = .014), and higher positive mental wellbeing (p = .011), levels of general mental health knowledge (p = .022), and confidence helping someone with poor mental health (p = .004) following the intervention. However, changes in stigmatising beliefs about mental illness, confidence recognising poor mental health, and confidence and comfort speaking to others about mental health were non-significant. Community members who were familiar with the campaign reported having significantly more wellbeing-related conversations post-campaign compared to before (p = .015). Respondents also reported being more comfortable speaking to others about mental health or wellbeing (p = .001) and engaging more in activities to maintain or improve their wellbeing (p = .012) following the campaign. CONCLUSIONS: The Vocal Locals social network campaign is an example of how science and community can be brought together to achieve meaningful outcomes. The campaign may serve as a model for others who wish to challenge attitudinal or knowledge-related barriers to help-seeking and improve engagement in wellbeing-promoting activities in difficult-to-reach communities.


Assuntos
Transtornos Mentais , Saúde Mental , Humanos , Austrália , Transtornos Mentais/prevenção & controle , Transtornos Mentais/psicologia , Agricultura , Rede Social
17.
Bioethics ; 38(5): 469-476, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38642386

RESUMO

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent, global threat to public health. The development and implementation of effective measures to address AMR is vitally important but presents important ethical questions. This is a policy area requiring further sustained attention to ensure that policies proposed in National Action Plans on AMR are ethically acceptable and preferable to alternatives that might be fairer or more effective, for instance. By ethically analysing case studies of coercive actions to address AMR across countries, we can better inform policy in a context-specific manner. In this article, I consider an example of coercive antimicrobial stewardship policy in Canada, namely restrictions on livestock farmers' access to certain antibiotics for animal use without a vet's prescription. I introduce and analyse two ethical arguments that might plausibly justify coercive action in this case: the harm principle and a duty of collective easy rescue. In addition, I consider the factors that might generally limit the application of those ethical concepts, such as challenges in establishing causation or evidencing the scale of the harm to be averted. I also consider specifics of the Canadian context in contrast to the UK and Botswana as example settings, to demonstrate how context-specific factors might mean a coercive policy that is ethically justified in one country is not so in another.


Assuntos
Gestão de Antimicrobianos , Coerção , Humanos , Gestão de Antimicrobianos/ética , Canadá , Animais , Agricultura/ética , Gado , Política de Saúde , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Saúde Pública/ética
18.
Am J Ind Med ; 67(2): 110-118, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37982326

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk of pesticide poisoning, liver and renal failure, dermatitis, respiratory problems, hypersensitivity pneumonitis, keratitis, and epilepsy among pesticide-spraying personnel and to assess the effectiveness of a new method of aerial pesticide application in reducing this risk. METHODS: A total of 2268 pesticide spraying operators (1651 ground-based field crop operators and 617 aerial pesticide spraying drone operators) who passed the national certification examination between 2010 and 2020 in Taiwan were included. Ground-based operators served as the positive control group, while 2463 farmer controls were matched from the Farmers' Health Insurance database as the negative control group. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database were used to track possible pesticide-related disease cases. Logistic regression was employed to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: Drone operators had significantly reduced risks of dermatitis, asthma and chronic bronchitis compared to ground-based operators. This was observed in allergic contact dermatitis (OR = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.24-0.68), unspecified contact dermatitis (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.35-0.97), asthma (OR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.12-0.60), and chronic bronchitis (OR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.06-0.93), after adjusting for age, sex, working areas, and licensing years. However, no significant differences were found when comparing drone operators to matching farmers. CONCLUSIONS: Aerial pesticide spraying using drones may contribute to a decreased risk of dermatitis, asthma and chronic bronchitis, suggesting potential health benefits for operators. Further field pesticide exposure surveys are recommended to validate these findings and assess health risk indicators.


Assuntos
Asma , Bronquite Crônica , Dermatite , Exposição Ocupacional , Praguicidas , Humanos , Dispositivos Aéreos não Tripulados , Taiwan/epidemiologia , Exposição Ocupacional/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ocupacional/prevenção & controle , Fazendeiros , Agricultura
19.
Plant Dis ; 108(2): 241-255, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37408118

RESUMO

Nanoscale materials are promising tools for managing plant diseases and are becoming important players in the current agritech revolution. However, adopting modern methodologies requires a broad understanding of their effectiveness in solving target problems and their effects on the environment and food chain. Furthermore, it is paramount that such technologies are mechanistically and economically feasible for growers to adopt in order to be sustainable in the long run. This Feature Article summarizes the latest findings on the role of nanoscale materials in managing agricultural plant pathogens. Herein, we discussed the benefits and limitations of using nanoscale materials in plant disease management and their potential impacts on the environment and global food security.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Nanotecnologia , Nanotecnologia/métodos , Agricultura/métodos , Produtos Agrícolas , Doenças das Plantas/prevenção & controle , Gerenciamento Clínico
20.
J Environ Manage ; 354: 120419, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38422570

RESUMO

Modeling the long-term trends of contaminants in topsoil under controlled measures is critical for sustainable agricultural environmental management. Traditional mass balance equations cannot predict spatial variation and exchange flux of regional soil contaminants for it lacks a method of assigning input-output parameters to each simulated cell. To overcome this limitation, we allocate the estimated source contribution flux to the spatial grid cell in the regional chemical mass balance by integrated positive matrix factorization (P-RCMB) with historical trends quantification. Focusing on Cd and As, which are elements with elevated risks of food intake and volatilization/infiltration, the model is applied to 30 ha of agricultural land near the enterprise. Predictions indicate an additional 13.5% of the soil is contaminated, and approximately 2.57 ha may accrue after 100 years at the site, with an uncertainty range of 0.98-5.3 ha. Clean water irrigation (CWI) reduces contamination expansion by approximately 42%, including approximately 4813 g ha-1 yr-1 net As infiltration, playing a dominant role in preventing the formation of severely contaminated soil. Stop straw return, green fertilizers use, and reduced atmospheric deposition control the exchange flux of Cd (114.9 g ha-1 yr-1) in moderate/slight contamination areas. For the different contaminants' cumulative trends in dryland and paddy fields, achieving a net cumulative flux close to zero in marginally contaminated areas presents a viable approach to optimize current emission standards. if trade-off straw removal and additional fertilizer inputs, a straw return rate of approximately 40% in Cd-contaminated soil will yield overall benefits. This model contributes valuable insights and tools for policymaking in contaminated land sustainable utilization and emission standard optimization.


Assuntos
Poluentes do Solo , Solo , Cádmio , Poluentes do Solo/análise , Agricultura , Poluição Ambiental/prevenção & controle , Fertilizantes/análise
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