Hierarchical cluster analysis and nonlinear mixed-effects modelling for candidate biomarker detection in preclinical models of cancer.

BACKGROUND: Preclinical models of cancer can be of translational benefit when assessing how different biomarkers are regulated in response to particular treatments. Detection of molecular biomarkers in preclinical models of cancer is difficult due inter-animal variability in responses, combined with limited accessibility of longitudinal data. METHODS: Nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (NLME) was used to analyse tumour growth data based on expected tumour growth rates observed 7 days after initial doses (DD7) of Radiotherapy (RT) and Combination of RT with DNA Damage Response Inhibitors (DDRi). Cox regression was performed to confirm an association between DD7 and survival. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was then used to identify candidate biomarkers impacting responses to RT and RT/DDRi and these were validated using NLME. RESULTS: Cox regression confirmed significant associations between DD7 and survival. HCA of RT treated samples, combined with NLME confirmed significant associations between DD7 and Cluster specific CD8+ Ki67 MFI, as well as DD7 and cluster specific Natural Killer cell density in RT treated mice. CONCLUSION: Application of NLME, as well as HCA of candidate biomarkers may provide additional avenues to assess the effect of RT in MC38 syngeneic tumour models. Additional studies would need to be conducted to confirm association between DD7 and biomarkers in RT/DDRi treated mice.

Mixed effects modeling of radiotherapy in combination with immune checkpoint blockade or inhibitors of the DNA damage response pathway.

Dosage optimization to maximize efficacy and minimize toxicity is a potential issue when administering radiotherapy (RT) in combination with immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) or inhibitors of the DNA Damage Response Pathway (DDRi) in the clinic. Preclinical models and mathematical modeling can help identify ideal dosage schedules to observe beneficial effects of a tri-therapy. The aim of this study is to describe a mathematical model to capture the impact of RT in combination with inhibitors of the DNA Damage Response Pathway or blockade of the immune checkpoint protein - programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1). This model describes how RT mediated activation of antigen presenting cells can induce an increase in cytolytic T cells capable of targeting tumor cells, and how combination drugs can potentiate the immune response by inhibiting the rate of T cell exhaustion. The model was fitted using preclinical data, where MC38 tumors were treated in vivo with RT alone or in combination with anti-PD-L1 as well as with either olaparib or the ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) inhibitor-AZD0156. The model successfully described the observed data and goodness-of-fit, using visual predictive checks also confirmed a successful internal model validation for each treatment modality. The results demonstrated that the anti-PD-L1 effect in combination with RT was maximal in vivo and any additional benefit of DDRi at the given dosage and schedule used was undetectable. Model fit results indicated AZD0156 to be a more potent DDRi than olaparib. Simulations of alternative doses indicated that reducing efficacy of anti-PD-L1 by 68% would potentially provide evidence for a benefit of ATM inhibition in combination with ICB and increase the relative efficacy of tri-therapy.

Radiation in Combination with Immune Checkpoint Blockade and DNA Damage Response Inhibitors in Mice: Dosage Optimization in MC38 Syngeneic Tumors via Modelling and Simulation.

Clinical trials assessing the impact of radiotherapy (RT) in combination with DNA damage response pathway inhibitors (DDRis) and/or immune checkpoint blockade are currently ongoing. However, current methods for optimizing dosage and schedule are limited. A mathematical model was developed to capture the impacts of RT in combination with DDRi and/or anti-PD-L1 [immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI)] on tumor immune interactions in the MC38 syngeneic tumor model. The model was fitted to datasets that assessed the impact of RT in combination with the DNA protein kinase inhibitor (DNAPKi) AZD7648. The model was further fitted to datasets from studies that were used to assess both RT/ICI combinations as well as RT/ICI combinations followed by concurrent administration of the poly ADP ribose polymerase inhibitor (PARPi) olaparib. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was performed followed by internal validation with visual predictive checks (VPC). Simulations of alternative dosage regimens and scheduling were performed to identify optimal candidate dosage regimens of RT/DNAPKi and RT/PARPi/ICI. Model fits and VPCs confirmed a successful internal validation for both datasets and demonstrated very small differences in the median, lower, and upper percentile values of tumor diameters between RT/ICI and RT/PARPi/ICI, which indicated that the triple combination of RT/PARPi/ICI at the given dosage and schedule does not provide additional benefit compared with ICI in combination with RT. Simulation of alternative dosage regimens indicated that lowering the dosage of ICI to between 2 and 4 mg/kg could induce similar benefits to the full dosage regimen, which could be of translational benefit. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: This work provides a mixed-effects model framework to quantify the effects of combination radiotherapy/DNA damage response pathway inhibitors/immune checkpoint inhibitors in preclinical tumor models and identify optimal dosage regimens, which could be of translational benefit.

Estimation of FMO3 Ontogeny by Mechanistic Population Pharmacokinetic Modelling of Risdiplam and Its Impact on Drug-Drug Interactions in Children.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a progressive neuromuscular disease caused by insufficient levels of survival motor neuron (SMN) protein. Risdiplam (EvrysdiTM) increases SMN protein and is approved for the treatment of SMA. Risdiplam has high oral bioavailability and is primarily eliminated through hepatic metabolism by flavin-containing monooxygenase3 (FMO3) and cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A, by 75% and 20%, respectively. While the FMO3 ontogeny is critical input data for the prediction of risdiplam pharmacokinetics (PK) in children, it was mostly studied in vitro, and robust in vivo FMO3 ontogeny is currently lacking. We derived in vivo FMO3 ontogeny by mechanistic population PK modelling of risdiplam and investigated its impact on drug-drug interactions in children. METHODS: Population and physiologically based PK (PPK and PBPK) modelling conducted during the development of risdiplam were integrated into a mechanistic PPK (Mech-PPK) model to estimate in vivo FMO3 ontogeny. A total of 10,205 risdiplam plasma concentration-time data from 525 subjects aged 2 months-61 years were included. Six different structural models were examined to describe the in vivo FMO3 ontogeny. Impact of the newly estimated FMO3 ontogeny on predictions of drug-drug interaction (DDI) in children was investigated by simulations for dual CYP3A-FMO3 substrates including risdiplam and theoretical substrates covering a range of metabolic fractions (fm) of CYP3A and FMO3 (fmCYP3A:fmFMO3 = 10%:90%, 50%:50%, 90%:10%). RESULTS: All six models consistently predicted higher FMO3 expression/activity in children, reaching a maximum at the age of 2 years with an approximately threefold difference compared with adults. Different trajectories of FMO3 ontogeny in infants < 4 months of age were predicted by the six models, likely due to limited observations for this age range. Use of this  in vivo FMO3 ontogeny function improved prediction of risdiplam PK in children compared to in vitro FMO3 ontogeny functions. The simulations of theoretical dual CYP3A-FMO3 substrates predicted comparable or decreased CYP3A-victim DDI propensity in children compared to adults across the range of fm values. Refinement of FMO3 ontogeny in the risdiplam model had no impact on the previously predicted low CYP3A-victim or -perpetrator DDI risk of risdiplam in children. CONCLUSION: Mech-PPK modelling successfully estimated in vivo FMO3 ontogeny from risdiplam data collected from 525 subjects aged 2 months-61 years. To our knowledge, this is the first investigation of in vivo FMO3 ontogeny by population approach using comprehensive data covering a wide age range. Derivation of a robust in vivo FMO3 ontogeny function has significant implications on the prospective prediction of PK and DDI in children for other FMO3 substrates in the future, as illustrated in the current study for FMO3 and/or dual CYP3A-FMO3 substrates. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NUMBERS: NCT02633709, NCT03032172, NCT02908685, NCT02913482, NCT03988907.

Towards a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model of anti-VEGF therapy in patients with age-related macular degeneration.

PURPOSE: To develop a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model (popPKPD) of intravitreal bevacizumab treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) patients to learn about the PK/PD relationship and utilise it for dosing regimen decisions on future nAMD patients. METHODS: The Greater Manchester Avastin for Neovascularisation (GMAN) randomised clinical trial data was retrospectively utilised, and the best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and central macular retinal thickness (CRT, measured by optical coherence tomography) were the PD inputs to the model. Using the nonlinear mixed-effects method, the best PKPD structural model was investigated, and the clinical significance of the two different dosing treatment regimens (as-needed versus routine) was evaluated. RESULTS: A structural model to describe the change of BCVA from the baseline of nAMD patients was successfully obtained based on the turnover PD model concept (drug stimulates the "visual acuity response production"). The popPKPD model and simulation indicate that the routine regimen protocol improves patient visual outcome compared to the as-needed protocol. For the change in CRT, the turnover structural PKPD model was too demanding to fit to the given clinical data. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first popPKPD attempt in nAMD treatment that shows the potential of this strategy to understand/inform the dosing regimen. Clinical trials with richer PD data will provide the means to build more robust models.

Investigation of simplified physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models in rat and human.

Whole-body physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have many applications in drug research and development. It is often necessary to inform these models with animal or clinical data, updating model parameters, and making the model more predictive for future applications. This provides an opportunity and a challenge given the large number of parameters of such models. The aim of this work was to propose new mechanistic model structures with reduced complexity allowing for parameter optimization. These models were evaluated for their ability to estimate realistic values for unbound tissue to plasma partition coefficients (Kpu) and simulate observed pharmacokinetic (PK) data. Two approaches are presented: using either established kinetic lumping methods based on tissue time constants (drug-dependent) or a novel clustering analysis to identify tissues sharing common Kpu values or Kpu scalars based on similarities of tissue composition (drug-independent). PBPK models derived from these approaches were assessed using PK data of diazepam in rats and humans. Although the clustering analysis produced minor differences in tissue grouping depending on the method used, two larger groups of tissues emerged. One including the kidneys, liver, spleen, gut, heart, and lungs, and another including bone, brain, muscle, and pancreas whereas adipose and skin were generally considered distinct. Overall, a subdivision into four tissue groups appeared most physiologically relevant in terms of tissue composition. Several models were found to have similar abilities to describe diazepam i.v. data as empirical models. Comparability of estimated Kpus to experimental Kpu values for diazepam was one criterion for selecting the appropriate PK model structure.

A "middle-out approach" for the prediction of human drug disposition from preclinical data using simplified physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models.

Simplified physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models using estimated tissue-to-unbound plasma partition coefficients (Kpus) were previously investigated by fitting them to in vivo pharmacokinetic (PK) data. After optimization with preclinical data, the performance of these models for extrapolation of distribution kinetics to human were evaluated to determine the best approach for the prediction of human drug disposition and volume of distribution (Vss) using PBPK modeling. Three lipophilic bases were tested (diazepam, midazolam, and basmisanil) for which intravenous PK data were available in rat, monkey, and human. The models with Kpu scalars using k-means clustering were generally the best for fitting data in the preclinical species and gave plausible Kpu values. Extrapolations of plasma concentrations for diazepam and midazolam using these models and parameters obtained were consistent with the observed clinical data. For diazepam and midazolam, the human predictions of Vss after optimization in rats and monkeys were better compared with the Vss estimated from the traditional PBPK modeling approach (varying from 1.1 to 3.1 vs. 3.7-fold error). For basmisanil, the sparse preclinical data available could have affected the model performance for fitting and the subsequent extrapolation to human. Overall, this work provides a rational strategy to predict human drug distribution using preclinical PK data within the PBPK modeling strategy.

Integration of advanced methods and models to study drug absorption and related processes: An UNGAP perspective.

This collection of contributions from the European Network on Understanding Gastrointestinal Absorption-related Processes (UNGAP) community assembly aims to provide information on some of the current and newer methods employed to study the behaviour of medicines. It is the product of interactions in the immediate pre-Covid period when UNGAP members were able to meet and set up workshops and to discuss progress across the disciplines. UNGAP activities are divided into work packages that cover special treatment populations, absorption processes in different regions of the gut, the development of advanced formulations and the integration of food and pharmaceutical scientists in the food-drug interface. This involves both new and established technical approaches in which we have attempted to define best practice and highlight areas where further research is needed. Over the last months we have been able to reflect on some of the key innovative approaches which we were tasked with mapping, including theoretical, in silico, in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo, preclinical and clinical approaches. This is the product of some of us in a snapshot of where UNGAP has travelled and what aspects of innovative technologies are important. It is not a comprehensive review of all methods used in research to study drug dissolution and absorption, but provides an ample panorama of current and advanced methods generally and potentially useful in this area. This collection starts from a consideration of advances in a priori approaches: an understanding of the molecular properties of the compound to predict biological characteristics relevant to absorption. The next four sections discuss a major activity in the UNGAP initiative, the pursuit of more representative conditions to study lumenal dissolution of drug formulations developed independently by academic teams. They are important because they illustrate examples of in vitro simulation systems that have begun to provide a useful understanding of formulation behaviour in the upper GI tract for industry. The Leuven team highlights the importance of the physiology of the digestive tract, as they describe the relevance of gastric and intestinal fluids on the behaviour of drugs along the tract. This provides the introduction to microdosing as an early tool to study drug disposition. Microdosing in oncology is starting to use gamma-emitting tracers, which provides a link through SPECT to the next section on nuclear medicine. The last two papers link the modelling approaches used by the pharmaceutical industry, in silico to Pop-PK linking to Darwich and Aarons, who provide discussion on pharmacometric modelling, completing the loop of molecule to man.

Evaluation of area under the concentration curve adjusted by the terminal-phase as a metric to reduce the impact of variability in bioequivalence testing.

AIM: To quantify the utility of a terminal-phase adjusted area under the concentration curve method in increasing the probability of a correct and conclusive outcome of a bioequivalence (BE) trial for highly variable drugs when clearance (CL) varies more than the volume of distribution (V). METHODS: Data from a large population of subjects were generated with variability in CL and V, and used to simulate a two-period, two-sequence crossover BE trial. The 90% confidence interval for formulation comparison was determined following BE assessment using the area under the concentration curve (AUC) ratio test, and the proposed terminal-phase adjusted AUC ratio test. An outcome of bioequivalent, nonbioequivalent or inconclusive was then assigned according to predefined BE limits. RESULTS: When CL varied more than V, the proposed approach enhanced the probability of correctly assigning bioequivalent or nonbioequivalent and reduced the risk of an inconclusive trial. For a hypothetical drug with between-subject variability of 35% for CL and 10% for V, when the true test-reference ratio of bioavailability was 1.15, a crossover study of n = 14 subjects analysed by the proposed method would have 80% or 20% probability of claiming bioequivalent or nonbioequivalent, compared to 22%, 46% or 32% probability of claiming bioequivalent, nonbioequivalent or inconclusive using the standard AUC ratio test. CONCLUSIONS: The terminal-phase adjusted AUC ratio test represents a simple and readily applicable approach to enhance the BE assessment of drug products when CL varies more than V.

Model-Based Drug-Drug Interaction Extrapolation Strategy From Adults to Children: Risdiplam in Pediatric Patients With Spinal Muscular Atrophy.

Risdiplam (Evrysdi) improves motor neuron function in patients with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and has been approved for the treatment of patients ≥2 months old. Risdiplam exhibits time-dependent inhibition of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A in vitro. While many pediatric patients receive risdiplam, a drug-drug interaction (DDI) study in pediatric patients with SMA was not feasible. Therefore, a novel physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model-based strategy was proposed to extrapolate DDI risk from healthy adults to children with SMA in an iterative manner. A clinical DDI study was performed in healthy adults at relevant risdiplam exposures observed in children. Risdiplam caused an 1.11-fold increase in the ratio of midazolam area under the curve with and without risdiplam (AUCR)), suggesting an 18-fold lower in vivo CYP3A inactivation constant compared with the in vitro value. A pediatric PBPK model for risdiplam was validated with independent data and combined with a validated midazolam pediatric PBPK model to extrapolate DDI from adults to pediatric patients with SMA. The impact of selected intestinal and hepatic CYP3A ontogenies on the DDI susceptibility in children relative to adults was investigated. The PBPK analysis suggests that primary CYP3A inhibition by risdiplam occurs in the intestine rather than the liver. The PBPK-predicted risdiplam CYP3A inhibition risk in pediatric patients with SMA aged 2 months-18 years was negligible (midazolam AUCR of 1.09-1.18) and included in the US prescribing information of risdiplam. Comprehensive evaluation of the sensitivity of predicted CYP3A DDI on selected intestinal and hepatic CYP3A ontogeny functions, together with PBPK model-based strategy proposed here, aim to guide and facilitate DDI extrapolations in pediatric populations.

Investigating the impact of target lesion selection on drug effect evaluation and tumour growth rate determination using tumour growth inhibition models: Example of malignant pleural mesothelioma patients treated with cisplatin alone or in combination with pemetrexed.

In the last update of the RECIST criteria in 2009, it was proposed that the number of target lesions to be followed over time for response-to-treatment assessment be reduced from 10 to 5 lesions maximum, with up to 2 per organ. We explored the impact of reducing the number of target lesion on the assessment of drug effect in a randomised phase III clinical trial using a tumour growth inhibition (TGI) model. Tumour size measurements from 441 (out of 456) patients were used to build two datasets for which observations were the sum of longest diameters of all measurable lesions (ALL dataset) or following the RECIST 1.1 recommendations (R1.1 dataset). TGI models incorporating a categorical covariate for treatment group or a pharmacokinetic metric (i.e. dose; simulated area under the curve) were used to describe the longitudinal tumour size kinetics. Drug exposure was not superior to treatment group at describing drug effect. ALL and R1.1 individual estimates of drug effect appeared to be strongly correlated (r2=0.88). Including pharmacokinetic metrics in TGI models should be conducted carefully when no pharmacokinetic samples are available. Reducing the number of target lesion did not seem to compromise the determination of drug effect using TGI models.

Dose individualisation in oncology using chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: Example of docetaxel in non-small cell lung cancer patients.

AIMS: Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia has been associated with an increase in overall survival in non-small cell lung cancer patients. Therefore, neutrophil counts could be an interesting biomarker for drug efficacy as well as linked directly to toxicity. For drugs where neutropenia is dose limiting, neutrophil counts might be used for monitoring drug effect and for dosing optimisation. METHODS: The relationship between drug effect on the first cycle neutrophil counts and patient survival was explored in a Phase III clinical trial where patients with non-small cell lung cancer were treated with docetaxel. Once the association has been established, dosing optimisation was performed for patients with severe toxicities (neutropenia) without compromising drug efficacy (overall survival). RESULTS: After taking into account baseline prognostic factors, such as Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, smoking status, liver metastasis, tumour burden, neutrophil counts and albumin levels, a model-predicted drug effect on the first cycle neutrophil counts was strongly associated with patient survival (P = .005). Utilising this relationship in a dose optimisation algorithm, 194 out of 366 patients would have benefited from a dose reduction after the first cycle of docetaxel. The simulated 1-year survival probabilities associated with the original dose and the individualised dose were not different. CONCLUSION: The strong relationship between drug effect on the first cycle neutrophil counts and patient survival suggests that this variable could be used to individualise dosing, possibly without needing pharmacokinetic samples. The algorithm highlights that doses could be reduced in case of severe haematological toxicities without compromising drug efficacy.

IMI - Oral biopharmaceutics tools project - Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 4: Prediction accuracy and software comparisons with improved data and modelling strategies.

Oral drug absorption is a complex process depending on many factors, including the physicochemical properties of the drug, formulation characteristics and their interplay with gastrointestinal physiology and biology. Physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models integrate all available information on gastro-intestinal system with drug and formulation data to predict oral drug absorption. The latter together with in vitro-in vivo extrapolation and other preclinical data on drug disposition can be used to predict plasma concentration-time profiles in silico. Despite recent successes of PBPK in many areas of drug development, an improvement in their utility for evaluating oral absorption is much needed. Current status of predictive performance, within the confinement of commonly available in vitro data on drugs and formulations alongside systems information, were tested using 3 PBPK software packages (GI-Sim (ver.4.1), Simcyp® Simulator (ver.15.0.86.0), and GastroPlus™ (ver.9.0.00xx)). This was part of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Oral Biopharmaceutics Tools (OrBiTo) project. Fifty eight active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) were qualified from the OrBiTo database to be part of the investigation based on a priori set criteria on availability of minimum necessary information to allow modelling exercise. The set entailed over 200 human clinical studies with over 700 study arms. These were simulated using input parameters which had been harmonised by a panel of experts across different software packages prior to conduct of any simulation. Overall prediction performance and software packages comparison were evaluated based on performance indicators (Fold error (FE), Average fold error (AFE) and absolute average fold error (AAFE)) of pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. On average, PK parameters (Area Under the Concentration-time curve (AUC0-tlast), Maximal concentration (Cmax), half-life (t1/2)) were predicted with AFE values between 1.11 and 1.97. Variability in FEs of these PK parameters was relatively high with AAFE values ranging from 2.08 to 2.74. Around half of the simulations were within the 2-fold error for AUC0-tlast and around 90% of the simulations were within 10-fold error for AUC0-tlast. Oral bioavailability (Foral) predictions, which were limited to 19 APIs having intravenous (i.v.) human data, showed AFE and AAFE of values 1.37 and 1.75 respectively. Across different APIs, AFE of AUC0-tlast predictions were between 0.22 and 22.76 with 70% of the APIs showing an AFE > 1. When compared across different formulations and routes of administration, AUC0-tlast for oral controlled release and i.v. administration were better predicted than that for oral immediate release formulations. Average predictive performance did not clearly differ between software packages but some APIs showed a high level of variability in predictive performance across different software packages. This variability could be related to several factors such as compound specific properties, the quality and availability of information, and errors in scaling from in vitro and preclinical in vivo data to human in vivo behaviour which will be explored further. Results were compared with previous similar exercise when the input data selection was carried by the modeller rather than a panel of experts on each in vitro test. Overall, average predictive performance was increased as reflected in smaller AAFE value of 2.8 as compared to AAFE value of 3.8 in case of previous exercise.

Intravitreal Pharmacokinetic Study of the Antiangiogenic Glycoprotein Opticin.

Opticin is an endogenous vitreous glycoprotein that may have therapeutic potential as it has been shown that supranormal concentrations suppress preretinal neovascularization. Herein we investigated the pharmacokinetics of opticin following intravitreal injection in rabbits. To measure simultaneously concentrations of human and rabbit opticin, a selected reaction monitoring mass spectrometry assay was developed. The mean concentration of endogenous rabbit opticin in 7 uninjected eyes was measured and found to be 19.2 nM or 0.62 µg/mL. When the vitreous was separated by centrifugation into a supernatant and collagen-containing pellet, 94% of the rabbit opticin was in the supernatant. Intravitreal injection of human opticin (40 µg) into both eyes of rabbits was followed by enucleation at 5, 24, and 72 h and 7, 14, and 28 days postinjection (n = 6 at each time point) and measurement of vitreous human and rabbit opticin concentrations in the supernatant and collagen-containing pellet following centrifugation. The volume of distribution of human opticin was calculated to be 3.31 mL, and the vitreous half-life was 4.2 days. Assuming that rabbit and human opticin are cleared from rabbit vitreous at the same rate, opticin is secreted into the vitreous at a rate of 0.14 µg/day. We conclude that intravitreally injected opticin has a vitreous half-life that is similar to currently available antiangiogenic therapeutics. While opticin was first identified bound to vitreous collagen fibrils, here we demonstrate that >90% of endogenous opticin is not bound to collagen. Endogenous opticin is secreted by the nonpigmented ciliary epithelium into the rabbit vitreous at a remarkably high rate, and the turnover in vitreous is approximately 15% per day.

Impact of tumour size measurement inter-operator variability on model-based drug effect evaluation.

PURPOSE: During oncology clinical trials, tumour size (TS) measurements are commonly used to monitor disease progression and to assess drug efficacy. We explored inter-operator variability within a subset of a phase III clinical trial conducted from August 1995 to February 1997 and its impact on drug effect evaluation using a tumour growth inhibition model. METHODS: One hundred twenty lesions were measured twice at each time point; once at the hospital and once at the centralised centre. A visual analysis was performed to identify trends within the profiles over time. Linear regression and relative error ratios were used to explore the inter-operator variability of raw TS measurements and model-based estimates. RESULTS: While correlation between patient-level estimates of drug effect was poor (r2 = 0.28), variability between the study-level estimates was much less affected (9%). CONCLUSIONS: The global evaluation of drug effect using modelling approaches might not be affected by inter-operator variability. However, the exploration of covariates for drug effect and the characterisation of an exposure-tumour shrinkage relationship seems limited by the high measurement variability that translates to a poor correlation of individual drug effect estimates. This might be addressed by the use of more precise computer-aided measurement methods.

Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Rodgers and Rowland Model for Prediction of Tissue: Plasma Partitioning Coefficients: Assessment of the Key Physiological and Physicochemical Factors That Determine Small-Molecule Tissue Distribution.

In physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling, the large number of input parameters, limited amount of available data and the structural model complexity generally hinder simultaneous estimation of uncertain and/or unknown parameters. These parameters are generally subject to estimation. However, the approaches taken for parameter estimation vary widely. Global sensitivity analyses are proposed as a method to systematically determine the most influential parameters that can be subject to estimation. Herein, a global sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the key drug and physiological parameters influencing drug disposition in PBPK models and to potentially reduce the PBPK model dimensionality. The impact of these parameters was evaluated on the tissue-to-unbound plasma partition coefficients (Kpus) predicted by the Rodgers and Rowland model using Latin hypercube sampling combined to partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC). For most drug classes, PRCC showed that LogP and fraction unbound in plasma (fup) were generally the most influential parameters for Kpu predictions. For strong bases, blood:plasma partitioning was one of the most influential parameter. Uncertainty in tissue composition parameters had a large impact on Kpu and Vss predictions for all classes. Among tissue composition parameters, changes in Kpu outputs were especially attributed to changes in tissue acidic phospholipid concentrations and extracellular protein tissue:plasma ratio values. In conclusion, this work demonstrates that for parameter estimation involving PBPK models and dimensionality reduction purposes, less influential parameters might be assigned fixed values depending on the parameter space, while influential parameters could be subject to parameters estimation.

The Influence of Normalization Weight in Population Pharmacokinetic Covariate Models.

In covariate (sub)models of population pharmacokinetic models, most covariates are normalized to the median value; however, for body weight, normalization to 70 kg or 1 kg is often applied. In this article, we illustrate the impact of normalization weight on the precision of population clearance (CLpop) parameter estimates. The influence of normalization weight (70, 1 kg or median weight) on the precision of the CLpop estimate, expressed as relative standard error (RSE), was illustrated using data from a pharmacokinetic study in neonates with a median weight of 2.7 kg. In addition, a simulation study was performed to show the impact of normalization to 70 kg in pharmacokinetic studies with paediatric or obese patients. The RSE of the CLpop parameter estimate in the neonatal dataset was lowest with normalization to median weight (8.1%), compared with normalization to 1 kg (10.5%) or 70 kg (48.8%). Typical clearance (CL) predictions were independent of the normalization weight used. Simulations showed that the increase in RSE of the CLpop estimate with 70 kg normalization was highest in studies with a narrow weight range and a geometric mean weight away from 70 kg. When, instead of normalizing with median weight, a weight outside the observed range is used, the RSE of the CLpop estimate will be inflated, and should therefore not be used for model selection. Instead, established mathematical principles can be used to calculate the RSE of the typical CL (CLTV) at a relevant weight to evaluate the precision of CL predictions.

A study of the dosage and duration for levobupivacaine infusion by the caudal-epidural route in infants aged 3-6 months.

BACKGROUND: The local anesthetic, levobupivacaine, is the safer enantiomer of racemic bupivacaine. Present protocols for levobupivacaine are based on studies and pharmacokinetic modeling with racemic bupivacaine. AIMS: The aim is to investigate total serum levobupivacaine concentrations after a caudalepidural loading dose followed by a maintenance infusion over 48 hours in infants aged 3-6 months. METHODS: The clinical trial was conducted in eight infants aged 3-6 months, undergoing bladder exstrophy repair. Pharmacokinetic modeling allowed optimization of clinical sampling to measure total levobupivacaine and α1 -acid glycoprotein and prediction of the effect of α1 -acid glycoprotein on levobupivacaine plasma protein binding. RESULTS: The observed median total levobupivacaine serum concentration was 0.30 mg/L (range: 0.20-0.70 mg/L) at 1 hour after the loading dose of 2 mg/kg. The median total levobupivacaine concentration after 47 hours of infusion, at 0.2 mg/kg/h, was 1.21 mg/L (0.07-1.85 mg/L). Concentrations of α1 -acid glycoprotein were found to rise throughout the study period. Pharmacokinetic modeling suggested that unbound levobupivacaine quickly reached steady state at a concentration of approximately 0.03 mg/L. CONCLUSION: The study allows the development of a pharmacokinetic model, combining levobupivacaine and α1 -acid glycoprotein data. Modeling indicates that unbound levobupivacaine quickly reaches steady state once the infusion is started. Simulations suggest that it may be possible to continue the infusion beyond 48 hours.

Variance based global sensitivity analysis of physiologically based pharmacokinetic absorption models for BCS I-IV drugs.

Regulatory agencies have a strong interest in sensitivity analysis for the evaluation of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models used in pharmaceutical research and drug development and regulatory submissions. One of the applications of PBPK is the prediction of fraction absorbed and bioavailability for drugs following oral administration. In this context, we performed a variance based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on in-house PBPK models for drug absorption, with the aim of identifying key parameters that influence the predictions of the fraction absorbed and the bioavailability for neutral, acidic and basic compounds. This analysis was done for four different classes of drugs, defined according to the Biopharmaceutics Classification System, differentiating compounds by permeability and solubility. For class I compounds (highly permeable, highly soluble), the parameters that mainly influence the fraction absorbed are related to the formulation properties, for class II compounds (highly permeable, lowly soluble) to the dissolution process, for class III (lowly permeable, highly soluble) to both absorption process and formulation properties and for class IV (lowly permeable, lowly soluble) to both absorption and dissolution processes. Considering the bioavailability, the results are similar to those for the fraction absorbed, with the addition that parameters related to gut wall and liver clearance influence as well the predictions. This work aimed to give a demonstration of the GSA methodology and highlight its importance in improving our understanding of PBPK absorption models and in guiding the choice of parameters that can safely be assumed, estimated or require data generation to allow informed model prediction.

Pharmacodynamic modelling of resistance to epidermal growth factor receptor inhibition in brain metastasis mouse models.

PURPOSE: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is thought to play a role in the regulation of cell proliferation; with its activation stimulating tumour growth. EGFR inhibitors have shown promise in the treatment of cancer, particularly in non-small cell lung cancer, however, resistance is observed in the majority of patients. A tumour growth model was developed aiming to explain this resistance. METHODS: The model incorporating populations of both sensitive and resistant cells were fitted to data from a study of EGFR inhibitor AZD3759 in brain metastasis mouse models. The observed regrowth of tumours in higher dose groups suggested the development of resistance to treatment. The bioluminescence observations were highly variable, covering many orders of magnitude, so to assess how reliable the model was, the parameter estimates were compared to those found in less noisy subcutaneous mouse models. RESULTS: The fitted model suggested that resistance was mainly due to a proportion of cells being resistant at baseline, and the contribution of mutations occurring during the study leading to resistance was negligible. Estimated growth rate and dose-response was found to be comparable between brain metastasis and subcutaneous mouse models. CONCLUSIONS: The developed model to describe resistance suggests that the resistance to EGFR-inhibition seen in these xenografts is best described by assuming a small percentage of cells are resistant to treatment at baseline. This model suggests changes to dosing and dosing schedule may not prevent resistance to treatment developing, and that additional treatments would need to be used in combination to overcome resistance.