Demographic rates reveal the benefits of protected areas in a long-lived migratory bird.

Recent studies have suggested that protected areas often fail to conserve target species. However, the efficacy of terrestrial protected areas is difficult to measure, especially for highly vagile species like migratory birds that may move between protected and unprotected areas throughout their lives. Here, we use a 30-y dataset of detailed demographic data from a migratory waterbird, the Whooper swan (Cygnus cygnus), to assess the value of nature reserves (NRs). We assess how demographic rates vary at sites with varying levels of protection and how they are influenced by movements between sites. Swans had a lower breeding probability when wintering inside NRs than outside but better survival for all age classes, generating a 30-fold higher annual growth rate within NRs. There was also a net movement of individuals from NRs to non-NRs. By combining these demographic rates and estimates of movement (into and out of NRs) into population projection models, we show that the NRs should help to double the population of swans wintering in the United Kingdom by 2030. These results highlight the major effect that spatial management can have on species conservation, even when the areas protected are relatively small and only used during short periods of the life cycle.

Urbanization's influence on the distribution of mange in a carnivore revealed with multistate occupancy models.

Increasing urbanization and use of urban areas by synanthropic wildlife has increased human and domestic animal exposure to zoonotic diseases and exacerbated epizootics within wildlife populations. Consequently, there is a need to improve wildlife disease surveillance programs to rapidly detect outbreaks and refine inferences regarding spatiotemporal disease dynamics. Multistate occupancy models can address potential shortcomings in surveillance programs by accounting for imperfect detection and the misclassification of disease states. We used these models to explore the relationship between urbanization, slope, and the spatial distribution of sarcoptic mange in coyotes (Canis latrans) inhabiting Fort Irwin, California, USA. We deployed remote cameras across 180 sites within the desert surrounding the populated garrison and classified sites by mange presence or absence depending on whether a symptomatic or asymptomatic coyote was photographed. Coyotes selected flatter sites closer to the urban area with a high probability of use (0.845, 95% credible interval (CRI): 0.728, 0.944); site use decreased as the distance to urban areas increased (standardized [Formula: see text] = - 1.354, 95% CRI - 2.423, - 0.619). The probability of correctly classifying mange presence at a site also decreased further from the urban area and was probably related to the severity of mange infection. Severely infected coyotes, which were more readily identified as symptomatic, resided closer to the urban area and were most likely dependent on urban resources for survival; urban resources probably contributed to sustaining the disease. Multistate occupancy models represent a flexible framework for estimating the occurrence and spatial extent of observable infectious diseases, which can improve wildlife disease surveillance programs.

Sustainability management of short-lived freshwater fish in human-altered ecosystems should focus on adult survival.

Fish populations globally are susceptible to endangerment through exploitation and habitat loss. We present theoretical simulations to explore how reduced adult survival (age truncation) might affect short-lived freshwater fish species in human-altered contemporary environments. Our simulations evaluate two hypothetical "average fish" and five example fish species of age 1 or age 2 maturity. From a population equilibrium baseline representing a natural, unaltered environment we impose systematic reductions in adult survival and quantify how age truncation affects the causes of variation in population growth rate. We estimate the relative contributions to population growth rate arising from simulated temporal variation in age-specific vital rates and population structure. At equilibrium and irrespective of example species, population structure (first adult age class) and survival probability of the first two adult age classes are the most important determinants of population growth. As adult survival decreases, the first reproductive age class becomes increasingly important to variation in population growth. All simulated examples show the same general pattern of change with age truncation as known for exploited, longer-lived fish species in marine and freshwater environments. This implies age truncation is a general potential concern for fish biodiversity across life history strategies and ecosystems. Managers of short-lived, freshwater fishes in contemporary environments often focus on supporting reproduction to ensure population persistence. However, a strong focus on water management to support reproduction may reduce adult survival. Sustainability management needs a focus on mitigating adult mortality in human-altered ecosystems. A watershed spatial extent embracing land and water uses may be necessary to identify and mitigate causes of age truncation in freshwater species. Achieving higher adult survival will require paradigm transformations in society and government about water management priorities.

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins.

Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators.

Does seasonality drive spatial patterns in demography? Variation in survival in African reed warblers Acrocephalus baeticatus across southern Africa does not reflect global patterns.

Among birds, northern temperate species generally have larger clutches, shorter development periods and lower adult survival than similarly-sized southern and tropical species. Even though this global pattern is well accepted, the driving mechanism is still not fully understood. The main theories are founded on the differing environmental seasonality of these zones (higher seasonality in the North). These patterns arise in cross-species comparisons, but we hypothesized that the same patterns should arise among populations within a species if different types of seasonality select for different life histories. Few studies have examined this. We estimated survival of an azonal habitat specialist, the African reed warbler, across the environmentally diverse African subcontinent, and related survival to latitude and to the seasonality of the different environments of their breeding habitats. Data (1998-2010) collected through a public ringing scheme were analyzed with hierarchical capture-mark-recapture models to determine resident adult survival and its spatial variance across sixteen vegetation units spread across four biomes. The models were defined as state-space multi-state models to account for transience and implemented in a Bayesian framework. We did not find a latitudinal trend in survival or a clear link between seasonality and survival. Spatial variation in survival was substantial across the sixteen sites (spatial standard deviation of the logit mean survival: 0.70, 95% credible interval (CRI): 0.33-1.27). Mean site survival ranged from 0.49 (95% CRI: 0.18-0.80) to 0.83 (95% CRI: 0.62-0.97) with an overall mean of 0.67 (95% CRI: 0.47-0.85). A hierarchical modeling approach enabled us to estimate spatial variation in survival of the African reed warbler across the African subcontinent from sparse data. Although we could not confirm the global pattern of higher survival in less seasonal environments, our findings from a poorly studied region contribute to the study of life-history strategies.

Revisiting the effect of capture heterogeneity on survival estimates in capture-mark-recapture studies: does it matter?

Recently developed capture-mark-recapture methods allow us to account for capture heterogeneity among individuals in the form of discrete mixtures and continuous individual random effects. In this article, we used simulations and two case studies to evaluate the effectiveness of continuously distributed individual random effects at removing potential bias due to capture heterogeneity, and to evaluate in what situation the added complexity of these models is justified. Simulations and case studies showed that ignoring individual capture heterogeneity generally led to a small negative bias in survival estimates and that individual random effects effectively removed this bias. As expected, accounting for capture heterogeneity also led to slightly less precise survival estimates. Our case studies also showed that accounting for capture heterogeneity increased in importance towards the end of study. Though ignoring capture heterogeneity led to a small bias in survival estimates, such bias may greatly impact management decisions. We advocate reducing potential heterogeneity at the sampling design stage. Where this is insufficient, we recommend modelling individual capture heterogeneity in situations such as when a large proportion of the individuals has a low detection probability (e.g. in the presence of floaters) and situations where the most recent survival estimates are of great interest (e.g. in applied conservation).

The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

Patches of bare ground as a staple commodity for declining ground-foraging insectivorous farmland birds.

Conceived to combat widescale biodiversity erosion in farmland, agri-environment schemes have largely failed to deliver their promises despite massive financial support. While several common species have shown to react positively to existing measures, rare species have continued to decline in most European countries. Of particular concern is the status of insectivorous farmland birds that forage on the ground. We modelled the foraging habitat preferences of four declining insectivorous bird species (hoopoe, wryneck, woodlark, common redstart) inhabiting fruit tree plantations, orchards and vineyards. All species preferred foraging in habitat mosaics consisting of patches of grass and bare ground, with an optimal, species-specific bare ground coverage of 30-70% at the foraging patch scale. In the study areas, birds thrived in intensively cultivated farmland where such ground vegetation mosaics existed. Not promoted by conventional agri-environment schemes until now, patches of bare ground should be implemented throughout grassland in order to prevent further decline of insectivorous farmland birds.

An assessment of integrated population models: bias, accuracy, and violation of the assumption of independence.

Understanding population dynamics requires accurate estimates of demographic rates. Integrated population models combine demographic and survey data into a single, comprehensive analysis and provide more coherent estimates of vital rates. Integrated population models rely on the assumption that different data sets are independent, which is frequently violated in practice. Moreover, the precision that can be gained using integrated modeling compared to conventional modeling is only known from empirical studies. The present study used simulation methods to assess how the violation of the assumption of independence affects the statistical properties of the parameter estimators. Further, the gains in precision and accuracy from the model were explored under varying sample sizes. For capture-recapture, population survey, and reproductive success, we generated independent and dependent data that were analyzed with integrated and conventional models. We found only a minimal impact of the violation of the assumption of independence on the parameter estimates. Furthermore, we observed an overall gain in precision and accuracy when all three data sets were analyzed simultaneously. This was particularly pronounced when the sample size was small. These findings contribute to clearing the way for the application of integrated population models in practice.