Can environmental and socioeconomic factors explain the recent emergence of Rift Valley fever in Yemen, 2000-2001?

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major vector-borne zoonosis first identified on the African continent in the early 1900s. In 2000, RVF was reported for the first time in Yemen. In this study, we provide a descriptive analysis of the period 1999-2007 in Yemen, taking into account the environmental and socioeconomic factors likely to have been involved in the emergence of RVF in the country. We characterize each year in the study period by the environmental conditions (linked to vegetation indexes), the festival calendar, and economic data. We then use a principal component analysis to synthesize the different variables, assess whether the year 2000 was atypical compared with other years in the study period, and, if that was the case, in what respect. Our results show that 2000 presented above-normal vegetation index values, which reflect important precipitation, for both the two rainy seasons (the first between March and May; the second between July and October). These environmental conditions, ones favorable to mosquito vector populations, coincided that year with a late (March) starting date of the Eid al-Kabeer festival, which corresponds to a period with high host (cattle, sheep, goats) densities. According to these criteria, 2000 was an atypical year. These conclusions suggest that it is important to consider social variables in addition to environmental ones when assessing the risk of RVF emergence.

Risk assessment of the introduction of Rift Valley fever from the Horn of Africa to Yemen via legal trade of small ruminants.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis of increasing global importance. Occurring since 1930 across Africa, it was detected for the first time in Saudi Arabia and Yemen in September 2000, leading to human deaths and major losses in livestock populations. Assuming the virus has not survived in Yemen or has been circulating at a low level, authors qualitatively assessed the likelihood of "re-introduction" of RVF into Yemen through the legal importation of small ruminants from the Horn of Africa. The overall probability of introduction was assessed very low to medium, increasing during festival periods and higher when considering a direct transmission exposure as compared to a vectorial transmission exposure. The uncertainty was considered to be medium underlining important gaps in information that need to be fulfilled in the region. Options to reduce the risk are proposed and discussed, including possible improvements of the current Yemeni quarantine system.