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Purpose: To conduct a prospective observational study across 12 U.S. hospitals to evaluate real-time performance of an interpretable artificial intelligence (AI) model to detect COVID-19 on chest radiographs. Materials and Methods: A total of 95 363 chest radiographs were included in model training, external validation, and real-time validation. The model was deployed as a clinical decision support system, and performance was prospectively evaluated. There were 5335 total real-time predictions and a COVID-19 prevalence of 4.8% (258 of 5335). Model performance was assessed with use of receiver operating characteristic analysis, precision-recall curves, and F1 score. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of race and sex with AI model diagnostic accuracy. To compare model accuracy with the performance of board-certified radiologists, a third dataset of 1638 images was read independently by two radiologists. Results: Participants positive for COVID-19 had higher COVID-19 diagnostic scores than participants negative for COVID-19 (median, 0.1 [IQR, 0.0-0.8] vs 0.0 [IQR, 0.0-0.1], respectively; P < .001). Real-time model performance was unchanged over 19 weeks of implementation (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.70; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.73). Model sensitivity was higher in men than women (P = .01), whereas model specificity was higher in women (P = .001). Sensitivity was higher for Asian (P = .002) and Black (P = .046) participants compared with White participants. The COVID-19 AI diagnostic system had worse accuracy (63.5% correct) compared with radiologist predictions (radiologist 1 = 67.8% correct, radiologist 2 = 68.6% correct; McNemar P < .001 for both). Conclusion: AI-based tools have not yet reached full diagnostic potential for COVID-19 and underperform compared with radiologist prediction.Keywords: Diagnosis, Classification, Application Domain, Infection, Lung Supplemental material is available for this article.. © RSNA, 2022.
RESUMEN
Importance: An artificial intelligence (AI)-based model to predict COVID-19 likelihood from chest x-ray (CXR) findings can serve as an important adjunct to accelerate immediate clinical decision making and improve clinical decision making. Despite significant efforts, many limitations and biases exist in previously developed AI diagnostic models for COVID-19. Utilizing a large set of local and international CXR images, we developed an AI model with high performance on temporal and external validation. Objective: Investigate real-time performance of an AI-enabled COVID-19 diagnostic support system across a 12-hospital system. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: Labeled frontal CXR images (samples of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) from the M Health Fairview (Minnesota, USA), Valencian Region Medical ImageBank (Spain), MIMIC-CXR, Open-I 2013 Chest X-ray Collection, GitHub COVID-19 Image Data Collection (International), Indiana University (Indiana, USA), and Emory University (Georgia, USA). Participants: Internal (training, temporal, and real-time validation): 51,592 CXRs; Public: 27,424 CXRs; External (Indiana University): 10,002 CXRs; External (Emory University): 2002 CXRs. Main Outcome and Measure: Model performance assessed via receiver operating characteristic (ROC), Precision-Recall curves, and F1 score. Results: Patients that were COVID-19 positive had significantly higher COVID-19 Diagnostic Scores (median .1 [IQR: 0.0-0.8] vs median 0.0 [IQR: 0.0-0.1], p < 0.001) than patients that were COVID-19 negative. Pre-implementation the AI-model performed well on temporal validation (AUROC 0.8) and external validation (AUROC 0.76 at Indiana U, AUROC 0.72 at Emory U). The model was noted to have unrealistic performance (AUROC > 0.95) using publicly available databases. Real-time model performance was unchanged over 19 weeks of implementation (AUROC 0.70). On subgroup analysis, the model had improved discrimination for patients with "severe" as compared to "mild or moderate" disease, p < 0.001. Model performance was highest in Asians and lowest in whites and similar between males and females. Conclusions and Relevance: AI-based diagnostic tools may serve as an adjunct, but not replacement, for clinical decision support of COVID-19 diagnosis, which largely hinges on exposure history, signs, and symptoms. While AI-based tools have not yet reached full diagnostic potential in COVID-19, they may still offer valuable information to clinicians taken into consideration along with clinical signs and symptoms.
