Molecular epidemiology of recurrent zoonotic transmission of mpox virus in West Africa.

Nigeria and Cameroon reported their first mpox cases in over three decades in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The outbreak in Nigeria is recognised as an ongoing human epidemic. However, owing to sparse surveillance and genomic data, it is not known whether the increase in cases in Cameroon is driven by zoonotic or sustained human transmission. Notably, the frequency of zoonotic transmission remains unknown in both Cameroon and Nigeria. To address these uncertainties, we investigated the zoonotic transmission dynamics of the mpox virus (MPXV) in Cameroon and Nigeria, with a particular focus on the border regions. We show that in these regions mpox cases are still driven by zoonotic transmission of a newly identified Clade IIb.1. We identify two distinct zoonotic lineages that circulate across the Nigeria-Cameroon border, with evidence of recent and historic cross border dissemination. Our findings support that the complex cross-border forest ecosystems likely hosts shared animal populations that drive cross-border viral spread, which is likely where extant Clade IIb originated. We identify that the closest zoonotic outgroup to the human epidemic circulated in southern Nigeria in October 2013. We also show that the zoonotic precursor lineage circulated in an animal population in southern Nigeria for more than 45 years. This supports findings that southern Nigeria was the origin of the human epidemic. Our study highlights the ongoing MPXV zoonotic transmission in Cameroon and Nigeria, underscoring the continuous risk of MPXV (re)emergence.

Genomic epidemiology uncovers the timing and origin of the emergence of mpox in humans.

Five years before the 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak Nigeria reported its first cases in nearly 40 years, with the ongoing epidemic since driven by sustained human-to-human transmission. However, limited genomic data has left questions about the timing and origin of the mpox virus' (MPXV) emergence. Here we generated 112 MPXV genomes from Nigeria from 2021-2023. We identify the closest zoonotic outgroup to the human epidemic in southern Nigeria, and estimate that the lineage transmitting from human-to-human emerged around July 2014, circulating cryptically until detected in September 2017. The epidemic originated in Southern Nigeria, particularly Rivers State, which also acted as a persistent and dominant source of viral dissemination to other states. We show that APOBEC3 activity increased MPXV's evolutionary rate twenty-fold during human-to-human transmission. We also show how Delphy, a tool for near-real-time Bayesian phylogenetics, can aid rapid outbreak analytics. Our study sheds light on MPXV's establishment in West Africa before the 2022-2023 global outbreak and highlights the need for improved pathogen surveillance and response.

Mpox (monkeypox) risk and mortality associated with HIV infection: a national case-control study in Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Recent outbreaks of mpox are characterised by changes in the natural history of the disease, the demographic and clinical characteristics of the cases, and widening geographical distribution. We investigated the role of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) coinfection among cases in the re-emergence of mpox to inform national and global response. METHODS: We conducted a national descriptive and case-control study on cases in the 2017-2019 Nigerian mpox outbreak. Mpox cases were age, sex and geographical area matched each with two randomly selected controls from a representative national HIV/AIDS survey. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between HIV infection and the risk of mpox acquisition and death. RESULTS: Among 204 suspected mpox cases, 86 were confirmed (median age 31 years (IQR 27-38 years), mostly males (61 cases, 70.9%). Three-fifths of mpox cases had serological evidence of one or more STIs with 27.9% (24/86) coinfected with HIV. The case fatality rate was 9.4% (8/86) and 20.8% (5/24) overall and in HIV positive cases respectively. Mpox cases were more likely to have HIV coinfection compared with an age, gender and geography-matched control group drawn from the general population (OR 45 (95% CI 6.1 to 333.5, p=0.002) and when compared with non mpox rash cases (7.29 (95% CI 2.6 to 20.5, p<0.0001)). HIV coinfection and young age were associated with mortality among mpox cases (aOR 13.66 (95% CI 1.88 to 98.95, p=0.010) and aOR 0.90 (0.82-0.97, p=0.008), respectively). CONCLUSION: HIV infection was associated with a higher risk of contracting and dying from mpox. Children are also at high risk of death. STIs in mpox cases may be suggestive of high-risk sexual behaviours among these individuals.

Distinct monkeypox virus lineages co-circulating in humans before 2022.

The 2022 global mpox outbreak raises questions about how this zoonotic disease established effective human-to-human transmission and its potential for further adaptation. The 2022 outbreak virus is related to an ongoing outbreak in Nigeria originally reported in 2017, but the evolutionary path linking the two remains unclear due to a lack of genomic data between 2018, when virus exportations from Nigeria were first recorded, and 2022, when the global mpox outbreak began. Here, 18 viral genomes obtained from patients across southern Nigeria in 2019-2020 reveal multiple lineages of monkeypox virus (MPXV) co-circulated in humans for several years before 2022, with progressive accumulation of mutations consistent with APOBEC3 activity over time. We identify Nigerian A.2 lineage isolates, confirming the lineage that has been multiply exported to North America independently of the 2022 outbreak originated in Nigeria, and that it has persisted by human-to-human transmission in Nigeria for more than 2 years before its latest exportation. Finally, we identify a lineage-defining APOBEC3-style mutation in all A.2 isolates that disrupts gene A46R, encoding a viral innate immune modulator. Collectively, our data demonstrate MPXV capacity for sustained diversification within humans, including mutations that may be consistent with established mechanisms of poxvirus adaptation.

An Outbred Guinea Pig Disease Model for Lassa Fever Using a Host-Adapted Clade III Nigerian Lassa Virus.

Nigeria experiences annual outbreaks of Lassa fever (LF) with high case numbers. At least three clades of Lassa virus (LASV) have been documented in Nigeria, though recent outbreaks are most often associated with clade II or clade III viruses. Using a recently isolated clade III LASV from a case of LF in Nigeria in 2018, we developed and characterized a guinea pig adapted virus capable of causing lethal disease in commercially available Hartley guinea pigs. Uniform lethality was observed after four passages of the virus and was associated with only two dominant genomic changes. The adapted virus was highly virulent with a median lethal dose of 10 median tissue culture infectious doses. Disease was characterized by several hallmarks of LF in similar models including high fever, thrombocytopenia, coagulation disorders, and increased inflammatory immune mediators. High viral loads were noted in all solid organ specimens analyzed. Histological abnormalities were most striking in the lungs and livers of terminal animals and included interstitial inflammation, edema, and steatosis. Overall, this model represents a convenient small animal model for a clade III Nigeria LASV with which evaluation of specific prophylactic vaccines and medical countermeasures can be conducted.

Epidemiology, diagnostics and factors associated with mortality during a cholera epidemic in Nigeria, October 2020-October 2021: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: Nigeria reported an upsurge in cholera cases in October 2020, which then transitioned into a large, disseminated epidemic for most of 2021. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology, diagnostic performance of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits and the factors associated with mortality during the epidemic. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of national surveillance data. SETTING: 33 of 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory) in Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Persons who met cholera case definition (a person of any age with acute watery diarrhoea, with or without vomiting) between October 2020 and October 2021 within the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control surveillance data. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attack rate (AR; per 100 000 persons), case fatality rate (CFR; %) and accuracy of RDT performance compared with culture using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, individual factors associated with cholera deaths and hospitalisation were presented as adjusted OR with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 93 598 cholera cases and 3298 deaths (CFR: 3.5%) were reported across 33 of 37 states in Nigeria within the study period. The proportions of cholera cases were higher in men aged 5-14 years and women aged 25-44 years. The overall AR was 46.5 per 100 000 persons. The North-West region recorded the highest AR with 102 per 100 000. Older age, male gender, residency in the North-Central region and severe dehydration significantly increased the odds of cholera deaths. The cholera RDT had excellent diagnostic accuracy (AUROC=0.91; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Nigeria with a high mortality rate. Thus, we recommend making RDT kits more widely accessible for improved surveillance and prompt case management across the country.

Trend and enhanced surveillance of Monkeypox during COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.

Monkeypox (MPX) is a viral zoonosis with lesions like smallpox. Though rare in Nigeria, sporadic outbreaks have been reported in 17 states since September 2017. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced surveillance and reporting of MPX disease. This study seeks to assess the effect of an enhanced surveillance approach to detect MPX cases and measure the cumulative incidence of MPX in priority states in Nigeria. We identified three priority states (Rivers, Delta and Bayelsa) and their Local Government Areas (LGAs) based on previous disease incidence. We also identified, trained, and incentivized community volunteers to conduct active case searches over three months (January to March 2021). We supported case investigation of suspected cases and followed up on cases in addition to routine active surveillance for MPX in health facilities and communities. Weekly and monthly follow-up was carried out during the same period. Out of the three states, 30 hotspots LGAs out of the 56 LGAs (54%) were engaged for enhanced surveillance. We trained three state supervisors, 30 LGA surveillance facilitators and 600 Community informants across the three priority states. Overall, twenty-five (25) suspected cases of MPX were identified. Out of these, three (12%) were confirmed as positive. Enhanced surveillance improved reporting of MPX diseases in hotspots LGAs across the priority states. Extension of this surveillance approach alongside tailored technical support is critical intra and post-pandemic.

Pathogens that Cause Illness Clinically Indistinguishable from Lassa Fever, Nigeria, 2018.

During the 2018 Lassa fever outbreak in Nigeria, samples from patients with suspected Lassa fever but negative Lassa virus PCR results were processed through custom gene expression array cards and metagenomic sequencing. Results demonstrated no single etiology, but bacterial and viral pathogens (including mixed co-infections) were detected.

Exportation of Monkeypox Virus From the African Continent.

BACKGROUND: The largest West African monkeypox outbreak began September 2017, in Nigeria. Four individuals traveling from Nigeria to the United Kingdom (n = 2), Israel (n = 1), and Singapore (n = 1) became the first human monkeypox cases exported from Africa, and a related nosocomial transmission event in the United Kingdom became the first confirmed human-to-human monkeypox transmission event outside of Africa. METHODS: Epidemiological and molecular data for exported and Nigerian cases were analyzed jointly to better understand the exportations in the temporal and geographic context of the outbreak. RESULTS: Isolates from all travelers and a Bayelsa case shared a most recent common ancestor and traveled to Bayelsa, Delta, or Rivers states. Genetic variation for this cluster was lower than would be expected from a random sampling of genomes from this outbreak, but data did not support direct links between travelers. CONCLUSIONS: Monophyly of exportation cases and the Bayelsa sample, along with the intermediate levels of genetic variation, suggest a small pool of related isolates is the likely source for the exported infections. This may be the result of the level of genetic variation present in monkeypox isolates circulating within the contiguous region of Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers states, or another more restricted, yet unidentified source pool.

Differential pathogenesis of closely related 2018 Nigerian outbreak clade III Lassa virus isolates.

Nigeria continues to experience ever increasing annual outbreaks of Lassa fever (LF). The World Health Organization has recently declared Lassa virus (LASV) as a priority pathogen for accelerated research leading to a renewed international effort to develop relevant animal models of disease and effective countermeasures to reduce LF morbidity and mortality in endemic West African countries. A limiting factor in evaluating medical countermeasures against LF is a lack of well characterized animal models outside of those based on infection with LASV strain Josiah originating form Sierra Leone, circa 1976. Here we genetically characterize five recent LASV isolates collected from the 2018 outbreak in Nigeria. Three isolates were further evaluated in vivo and despite being closely related and from the same spatial / geographic region of Nigeria, only one of the three isolates proved lethal in strain 13 guinea pigs and non-human primates (NHP). Additionally, this isolate exhibited atypical pathogenesis characteristics in the NHP model, most notably respiratory failure, not commonly described in hemorrhagic cases of LF. These results suggest that there is considerable phenotypic heterogeneity in LASV infections in Nigeria, which leads to a multitude of pathogenesis characteristics that could account for differences between subclinical and lethal LF infections. Most importantly, the development of disease models using currently circulating LASV strains in West Africa are critical for the evaluation of potential vaccines and medical countermeasures.

Outbreak of human monkeypox in Nigeria in 2017-18: a clinical and epidemiological report.

BACKGROUND: In September, 2017, human monkeypox re-emerged in Nigeria, 39 years after the last reported case. We aimed to describe the clinical and epidemiological features of the 2017-18 human monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria. METHODS: We reviewed the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of cases of human monkeypox that occurred between Sept 22, 2017, and Sept 16, 2018. Data were collected with a standardised case investigation form, with a case definition of human monkeypox that was based on previously established guidelines. Diagnosis was confirmed by viral identification with real-time PCR and by detection of positive anti-orthopoxvirus IgM antibodies. Whole-genome sequencing was done for seven cases. Haplotype analysis results, genetic distance data, and epidemiological data were used to infer a likely series of events for potential human-to-human transmission of the west African clade of monkeypox virus. FINDINGS: 122 confirmed or probable cases of human monkeypox were recorded in 17 states, including seven deaths (case fatality rate 6%). People infected with monkeypox virus were aged between 2 days and 50 years (median 29 years [IQR 14]), and 84 (69%) were male. All 122 patients had vesiculopustular rash, and fever, pruritus, headache, and lymphadenopathy were also common. The rash affected all parts of the body, with the face being most affected. The distribution of cases and contacts suggested both primary zoonotic and secondary human-to-human transmission. Two cases of health-care-associated infection were recorded. Genomic analysis suggested multiple introductions of the virus and a single introduction along with human-to-human transmission in a prison facility. INTERPRETATION: This study describes the largest documented human outbreak of the west African clade of the monkeypox virus. Our results suggest endemicity of monkeypox virus in Nigeria, with some evidence of human-to-human transmission. Further studies are necessary to explore animal reservoirs and risk factors for transmission of the virus in Nigeria. FUNDING: None.