Leveraging machine learning to enhance postoperative risk assessment in coronary artery bypass grafting patients with unprotected left main disease - A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) for left main coronary artery (LMCA) disease is essential for informed decision-making. This study explored the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to identify key risk factors associated with mortality in this patient group. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 866 patients from the Gulf Left Main Registry who presented between 2015 and 2019. The study outcome was hospital all-cause mortality. Various machine learning models [logistic regression, random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, naïve Bayes, multilayer perception, boosting] were used to predict mortality, and their performance was measured using accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Nonsurvivors had significantly greater EuroSCORE II values (1.84 (10.08-3.67) vs. 4.75 (2.54-9.53) %, P<0.001 for survivors and nonsurvivors, respectively). The EuroSCORE II score significantly predicted hospital mortality (OR: 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.09-1.18), P<0.001), with an AUC of 0.736. RF achieved the best ML performance (accuracy=98, precision=100, recall=97 and F1 score=98). Explainable artificial intelligence using SHAP demonstrated the most important features as follows: preoperative lactate level, emergency surgery, chronic kidney disease (CKD), NSTEMI, nonsmoking status, and sex. QLattice identified lactate and CKD as the most important factors for predicting hospital mortality this patient group. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the potential of ML, particularly the Random Forest, to accurately predict hospital mortality in patients undergoing CABG for LMCA disease and its superiority over traditional methods. The key risk factors identified, including preoperative lactate levels, emergency surgery, chronic kidney disease, NSTEMI, nonsmoking status, and sex, provide valuable insights for risk stratification and informed decision-making in this high-risk patient population. Additionally, incorporating newly identified risk factors into future risk scoring systems can further improve mortality prediction accuracy.

Clinical outcomes of patients with cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction: The Gulf-Cardiogenic Shock (G-CS) Registry.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data regarding acute myocardial infarction (MI) complicated by cardiogenic shock (AMI-CS) in the Gulf region. This study addressed this knowledge gap by examining patients experiencing AMI-CS in the Gulf region and analyzing hospital and short-term follow-up mortality. METHODS: The Gulf-CS registry included 1,513 patients with AMI-CS diagnosed between January 2020 and December 2022. RESULTS: The incidence of AMI-CS was 4.1% (1513/37379). The median age was 60 years. The most common presentation was ST-elevation MI (73.83%). In-hospital mortality was 45.5%. Majority of patients were in SCAI stage D and E (68.94%). Factors associated with hospital mortality were previous coronary artery bypass graft (OR:2.49; 95%CI: 1.321-4.693), cerebrovascular accident (OR:1.621, 95%CI: 1.032-2.547), chronic kidney disease (OR:1.572; 95%CI1.158-2.136), non-ST-elevation MI (OR:1.744; 95%CI: 1.058-2.873), cardiac arrest (OR:5.702; 95%CI: 3.640-8.933), SCAI stage D and E (OR:19.146; 95CI%: 9.902-37.017), prolonged QRS (OR:10.012; 95%CI: 1.006-1.019), right ventricular dysfunction (OR:1.679; 95%CI: 1.267-2.226) and ventricular septal rupture (OR:6.008; 95%CI: 2.256-15.998). Forty percent had invasive hemodynamic monitoring, 90.02% underwent revascularization, and 45.80% received mechanical circulatory support (41.31% had Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump and 14.21% had Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation/Impella devices). Survival at 12 months was 51.49% (95% CI: 46.44- 56.29%). CONCLUSIONS: The study highlighted the significant burden of AMI-CS in this region, with high in-hospital mortality. The study identified several key risk factors associated with increased hospital mortality. Despite the utilization of invasive hemodynamic monitoring, revascularization, and mechanical circulatory support in a substantial proportion of patients, the 12-month survival rate remained relatively low.

Single Versus Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting for Unprotected Left-Main Coronary Disease.

BACKGROUND: The use of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after coronary revascularization for left-main disease is still debated. The study aimed to characterize patients who received dual versus single antiplatelet therapy (SAPT) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) for unprotected left-main disease and compare the outcomes of those patients. RESULTS: This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 551 patients who were grouped into 2 groups: patients who received SAPT (n = 150) and those who received DAPT (n = 401). There were no differences in age ( P = 0.451), gender ( P = 0.063), smoking ( P = 0.941), diabetes mellitus ( P = 0.773), history of myocardial infarction ( P = 0.709), chronic kidney disease ( P = 0.615), atrial fibrillation ( P = 0.306), or cerebrovascular accident ( P = 0.550) between patients who received SAPT versus DAPT. DAPTs were more commonly used in patients with acute coronary syndrome [87 (58%) vs. 273 (68.08%); P = 0.027], after off-pump CABG [12 (8%) vs. 73 (18.2%); P = 0.003] and in patients with radial artery grafts [1 (0.67%) vs. 32 (7.98%); P < 0.001]. While SAPTs were more commonly used in patients with low ejection fraction [55 (36.67%) vs. 61 (15.21%); P < 0.001] and in patients with postoperative acute kidney injury [27 (18%) vs. 37 (9.23%); P = 0.004]. The attributed treatment effect of DAPT for follow-up major adverse cerebrovascular and cardiac events was not significantly different from that of SAPT [ß, -2.08 (95% confidence interval (CI), -20.8-16.7); P = 0.828]. The attributed treatment effect of DAPT on follow-up all-cause mortality was not significantly different from that of SAPT [ß, 4.12 (CI, -11.1-19.32); P = 0.595]. There was no difference in bleeding between groups ( P = 0.666). CONCLUSIONS: DAPTs were more commonly used in patients with acute coronary syndrome, after off-pump CABG, and with radial artery grafts. SAPTs were more commonly used in patients with low ejection fraction and acute kidney injury. Patients on DAPT after CABG for left-main disease had comparable major adverse cerebrovascular and cardiac events and survival to patients on SAPT, with no difference in bleeding events.

Does Gender Affect the Outcomes of Myocardial Revascularization for Left-Main Coronary Artery Disease?

Currently, gender is not considered in the choice of the revascularization strategy for patients with unprotected left main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease. This study analyzed the effect of gender on the outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) vs coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with ULMCA disease. Females who had PCI (n = 328) were compared with females who had CABG (n = 132) and PCI in males (n = 894) was compared with CABG (n = 784). Females with CABG had higher overall hospital mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) than females with PCI. Male patients with CABG had higher MACE; however, mortality did not differ between males with CABG vs PCI. In female patients, follow-up mortality was significantly higher in CABG patients, and target lesion revascularization was higher in patients with PCI. Male patients had no difference in mortality and MACE between groups; however, MI was higher with CABG, and congestive heart failure was higher with PCI. In conclusion, women with ULMCA disease treated with PCI could have better survival with lower MACE compared with CABG. These differences were not evident in males treated with either CABG or PCI. PCI could be the preferred revascularization strategy in women with ULMCA disease.

Outcomes of Left Main Revascularization in Patients with Anemia: Gulf Left Main Registry.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of baseline anemia and anemia following revascularization on outcomes in patients with unprotected left main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease. METHODS: This was a retrospective, multicenter, observational study conducted between January 2015 and December 2019. The data on patients with ULMCA who underwent revascularization through percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) were stratified by the hemoglobin level at baseline into anemic and non-anemic groups to compare in-hospital events. The pre-discharge hemoglobin following revascularization was categorized into very low (<80 g/L for men and women), low (≥80 and ≤119 g/L for women and ≤129 g/L for men), and normal (≥130 g/L for men and ≥120 g/L for women) to assess impact on follow-up outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 2,138 patients were included, 796 (37.2%) of whom had anemia at baseline. A total of 319 developed anemia after revascularization and moved from being non-anemic at baseline to anemic at discharge. There was no difference in hospital major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event (MACCE) and mortality between CABG and PCI in anemic patients. At a median follow-up time of 20 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 27), patients with pre-discharge anemia who underwent PCI had a higher incidence of congestive heart failure (CHF) (p < 0.0001), and those who underwent CABG had significantly higher follow-up mortality (HR: 9.85 (95% CI: 2.53-38.43), p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this Gulf LM study, baseline anemia had no impact upon in-hospital MACCE and total mortality following revascularization (PCI or CABG). However, pre-discharge anemia is associated with worse outcomes after ULMCA disease revascularization, with significantly higher all-cause mortality in patients who had CABG, and a higher incidence of CHF in PCI patients, at a median follow-up time of 20 months (IQR: 27).