Forecasting the SARS COVID-19 pandemic and critical care resources threshold in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: population analysis of aggregate data.

OBJECTIVE: To generate cross-national forecasts of COVID-19 trajectories and quantify the associated impact on essential critical care resources for disease management in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. DESIGN: Population-level aggregate analysis. SETTING: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. METHODS: We applied an extended time-dependent SEICRD compartmental model to predict the flow of people between six states, susceptible-exposed-infected-critical-recovery-death, accounting for community mitigation strategies and the latent period between exposure and infected and contagious states. Then, we used the WHO Adaptt Surge Planning Tool to predict intensive care unit (ICU) and human resources capacity based on predicted daily active and cumulative infections from the SEICRD model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predicted COVID-19 infections, deaths, and ICU and human resources capacity for disease management. RESULTS: COVID-19 infections vary daily from 498 per million in Bahrain to over 300 per million in UAE and Qatar, to 9 per million in Saudi Arabia. The cumulative number of deaths varies from 302 per million in Oman to 89 in Qatar. UAE attained its first peak as early as 21 April 2020, whereas Oman had its peak on 29 August 2020. In absolute terms, Saudi Arabia is predicted to have the highest COVID-19 mortality burden, followed by UAE and Oman. The predicted maximum number of COVID-19-infected patients in need of oxygen therapy during the peak of emergency admissions varies between 690 in Bahrain, 1440 in Oman and over 10 000 in Saudi Arabia. CONCLUSION: Although most GCC countries have managed to flatten the epidemiological curve by August 2020, trends since November 2020 show potential increase in new infections. The pandemic is predicted to recede by August 2021, provided the existing infection control measures continue effectively and consistently across all countries. Current health infrastructure including the provision of ICUs and nursing staff seem adequate, but health systems should keep ICUs ready to manage critically ill patients.

Disentangling age-gender interactions associated with risks of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries in the Sultanate of Oman.

OBJECTIVE: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years lost in Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Injury prevention strategies often overlook the interaction of individual and behavioural risk factors in assessing the severity of RTI outcomes. We conducted a systematic investigation of the underlying interactive effects of age and gender on the severity of fatal and non-fatal RTI outcomes in the Sultanate of Oman. METHODS: We used the Royal Oman Police national database of road traffic crashes for the period 2010-2014. Our study was based on 35 785 registered incidents: of these, 10.2% fatal injuries, 6.2% serious, 27.3% moderate, 37.3% mild injuries and 19% only vehicle damage but no human injuries. We applied a generalised ordered logit regression to estimate the effect of age and gender on RTI severity, controlling for risk behaviours, personal characteristics, vehicle, road, traffic, environment conditions and geographical location. RESULTS: The most dominant group at risk of all types of RTIs was young male drivers. The probability of severe incapacitating injuries was the highest for drivers aged 25-29 (26.6%) years, whereas the probability of fatal injuries was the highest for those aged 20-24 (26.9%) years. Analysis of three-way interactions of age, gender and causes of crash show that overspeeding was the primary cause of different types of RTIs. In particular, the probability of fatal injuries among male drivers attributed to overspeeding ranged from 3%-6% for those aged 35 years and above to 13.4% and 17.7% for those aged 25-29 years and 20-24 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The high burden of severe and fatal RTIs in Oman was primarily attributed to overspeed driving behaviour of young male drivers in the 20-29 years age range. Our findings highlight the critical need for designing early gender-sensitive road safety interventions targeting young male and female drivers.