Validity of obstructive sleep apnoea diagnoses.

INTRODUCTION: Healthcare databases are a valuable source for epidemiological research in obstructive sleep apnoea, but accurately registered diagnoses are pivotal in contributing quality evidence. We examined positive predictive values (PPV) of the International Classification of Diseases, tenth version (ICD-10) diagnosis for "obstructive sleep apnoea" and "sleep apnoea" in the Danish National Patient Register. METHODS: Using the Danish National Patient Registry, we randomly sampled 100 patients from the North Denmark Region diagnosed with "obstructive sleep apnoea" (ICD-10 code DG4732) and 100 patients diagnosed with "sleep apnoea" (DG473*) during the year 2020. We calculated the PPV using a documented Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI) ≥ 5 to confirm the recorded diagnosis. A total of 70 patients were referred to the private sector for assessment of the AHI and excluded due to limited access to their data. RESULTS: The study population included 130 patients, among whom 64 were diagnosed with "obstructive sleep apnoea", and 66 patients were registered with "sleep apnoea". The PPV for "obstructive sleep apnoea" was 93.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 85.0-97.5%), and the PPV for "sleep apnoea" was 80.3% (95% CI: 69.2-88.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicated a high validity of the ICD-10 code DG4732 with a PPV of 93.8% and a lower PPV (80.3%) for the ICD-10 code DG473* for identifying patients with obstructive sleep. The "obstructive sleep apnoea" diagnosis is a suitable source of data for epidemiological research to identify patients with the disease. FUNDING: None. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not relevant.

Trends of Pulmonary Embolism-Related Sudden Cardiac Death in the United States, 1999-2019.

OBJECTIVES: Up-to-date population-based data on pulmonary embolism (PE)-related sudden cardiac death (SCD) mortality trends in the United States (US) are scant. We assess the current trends in PE-related SCD mortality in US over the past two decades and determine differences by sex, race, ethnicity, age, and census region. METHODS: We extracted PE-related SCD mortality rates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database from 1999 to 2019, in patients aged ≥ 15 years old. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were assessed using the Joinpoint regression modeling and expressed as estimated average annual percentage change (AAPC) with relative 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2019, the AAMR from acute PE-related SCD mortality in the US linearly increased [AAPC: +2.4% (95% CI: 2.2 to 2.6), p < 0.001)]. The AAMR increase was more pronounced in men [AAPC: +2.8% (95% CI: 2.6 to 2.9), p < 0.001], Whites [AAPC: +2.7% (95% CI: 2.3 to 3.1), p < 0.001], Latinx/Hispanic patients [AAPC:+2.0% (95% CI: 1.2 to 2.8), p < 0.001], subjects younger than 65 years [AAPC: +2.4% (95% CI: 2.1 to 2.6), p < 0.001] and in residents of rural areas [AAPC: +3.6% (95% CI: 3.3 to 3.9), p < 0.001]. Moreover, higher percentages of PE-related SCD and the relative absolute number of deaths were observed in the South compared with other geographical regions. CONCLUSIONS: PE-related SCD mortality in the US has increased over the last two decades. Stratification by race, ethnicity, urbanization, and census region demonstrates ethnoracial and regional disparities that require further investigation and remedy.

Risk of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism in Selected Subgroups of Men: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study.

Background Although men are considered at high risk for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE), sex-specific data on prognostic factors are lacking. We estimated the cumulative recurrence risks associated with clinical characteristics and comorbidities known or suspected to be associated with the development of VTE recurrence: major surgery, trauma, history of cancer, rheumatic disorder, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, chronic renal disease, varicose veins, alcohol-related diseases, and arterial hypertension. Methods We linked nationwide Danish health registries to identify all incident VTE in- and outpatients in men from 2008 through 2018. Recurrent VTE risk 2 years after anticoagulant discontinuation was calculated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator, stratified by age above/below 50 years. Results The study included 13,932 men with VTE, of whom 21% ( n = 2,898) were aged <50 years. For men aged <50 years with at least one of the clinical characteristics, 2-year recurrence risk ranged from 6% (major surgery) to 16% (history of cancer). For men ≥50 years with at least one of the characteristics, recurrence risk ranged from 7% (major surgery) to 12% (ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and chronic renal disease). Men aged <50 and ≥50 years without the clinical characteristics all had a recurrence risk of 10%. Discussion We demonstrated a 2-year recurrence risk of at least 6%, regardless of age category and disease status, in this nationwide cohort of men with VTE. The recurrence risk must be balanced against bleeding risk. However, the high recurrence risk across all subgroups might ultimately lead to greater emphasis on male sex in future guidelines focusing on optimized secondary VTE prevention.

Long-Term Management of Pulmonary Embolism: A Review of Consequences, Treatment, and Rehabilitation.

The concept of pulmonary embolism is evolving. Recent and emerging evidence on the treatment of specific patient populations, its secondary prevention, long-term complications, and the unmet need for rehabilitation has the potential to change clinical practice for the benefit of the patients. This review discusses the recent evidence from clinical trials, observational studies, and guidelines focusing on anticoagulation treatment, rehabilitation, emotional stress, quality of life, and the associated outcomes for patients with pulmonary embolism. Guidelines suggest that the type and duration of treatment with anticoagulation should be based on prevalent risk factors. Recent studies demonstrate that an anticoagulant treatment that is longer than two years may be effective and safe for some patients. The evidence for extended treatment in cancer patients is limited. Careful consideration is particularly necessary for pulmonary embolisms in pregnancy, cancer, and at the end of life. The rehabilitation and prevention of unnecessary deconditioning, emotional distress, and a reduced quality of life is an important, but currently they are unmet priorities for many patients with a pulmonary embolism. Future research could demonstrate optimal anticoagulant therapy durations, follow-ups, and rehabilitation, and effective patient-centered decision making at the end of life. A patient preferences and shared decision making should be incorporated in their routine care when weighing the benefits and risks with primary treatment and secondary prevention.

Extended Anticoagulation After Pulmonary Embolism: A Multicenter Observational Cohort Analysis.

Background Pulmonary embolism (PE) has a long-term risk of adverse events, which can be prevented by extended anticoagulation. We compared clinical characteristics and outcomes between patients treated with 2-year extended anticoagulation and those who were not, in a population who had completed an initial phase of 3 to 6 months of anticoagulant therapy after acute PE. Methods and Results Observational cohort analysis of patients with PE who survived an initial phase of 3 to 6 months anticoagulation. Primary efficacy outcome was all-cause death or recurrent venous thromboembolism. Primary safety outcome was major bleeding. In total, 858 (71.5%) patients were treated with and 341 (28.5%) were treated without extended anticoagulant therapy during the active study period. Age <65 years, intermediate-high or high-risk index PE, normal platelet count, and the absence of concomitant antiplatelet treatment were independently associated with the prescription of extended anticoagulation. The mean duration of the active phase was 2.1±0.3 years. The adjusted rate of the primary efficacy outcome was 2.1% in the extended group and 7.7% in the nonextended group (P<0.001) for patients treated with extended anticoagulant therapy. Rate of bleeding were similar between the extended anticoagulant group and the nonextended group. Conclusions Extended oral anticoagulation over 2 and a half years after index PE seems to provide a net clinical benefit compared with no anticoagulation in patients with PE selected to receive extended anticoagulation. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to explore the potential benefit of extended anticoagulation in patients with PE, especially those with transient provoking factors but residual risk.

Validation of the Khorana score for predicting venous thromboembolism in 40 218 patients with cancer initiating chemotherapy.

The Khorana score is recommended for guiding primary venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis in cancer patients, but its clinical utility overall and across cancer types remains debatable. Also, some previous validation studies have ignored the competing risk of death, hereby potentially overestimating VTE risk. We identified ambulatory cancer patients initiating chemotherapy without other indications for anticoagulation using Danish health registries and estimated 6-month cumulative incidence of VTE stratified by Khorana levels. Analyses were conducted with and without considering death as a competing risk using the Kaplan-Meier method vs the cumulative incidence function. Analyses were performed overall and stratified by cancer types. Of 40 218 patients, 35.4% were categorized by Khorana as low risk (score 0), 53.6% as intermediate risk (score 1 to 2), and 10.9% as high risk (score ≥3). Considering competing risk of death, the corresponding 6-month risks of VTE were 1.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-1.7), 2.8% (95% CI, 2.6-3.1), and 4.1% (95% CI, 3.5-4.7), respectively. Among patients recommended anticoagulation by guidelines (Khorana score ≥2), the 6-month risk was 3.6% (95% CI, 3.3-3.9). Kaplan-Meier analysis overestimated incidence up to 23% compared with competing risk analyses. Using the guideline-recommended threshold of ≥2, the Khorana score did not risk-stratify patients with hepatobiliary or pancreatic cancer, lung cancer, and gynecologic cancer. In conclusion, the Khorana score was able to stratify ambulatory cancer patients according to the risk of VTE, but not for all cancer types. Absolute risks varied by methodology but were lower than in key randomized trials. Thus, although certain limitations with outcome identification using administrative registries apply, the absolute benefit of implementing routine primary thromboprophylaxis in an unselected cancer population may be smaller than seen in randomized trials.

Characteristics of patients receiving extended treatment after incident venous thromboembolism.

Given high recurrence risk after venous thromboembolism (VTE), guidelines recommend extended dose rivaroxaban (10 mg OD) or apixaban (2.5 mg BID) to be considered after 6 months of initial treatment. This study aimed to provide insight into clinical practice regarding the use of extended preventive treatment and to describe duration of the initial treatment. Linkage of nationwide health registers identified all in- and outpatients with VTE from April 2017 through 2018. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated adjusting for other VTE-related factors. The study included 6030 patients with VTE. Among rivaroxaban users, 2.2% (n = 113) received the extended 10-mg dose after mean 9.4 (SD 3.1) months of standard treatment. For apixaban, 4.7% (n = 40) received extended 2.5-mg dose after mean 8.0 months (SD 3.9). After adjustments, incident pulmonary embolism (HR 1.81 95% CI 1.12;2.91) and trauma/fracture (HR 1.42 95% CI 0.46;4.43) were associated with switching to extended dose, whereas patients with unprovoked VTE were less likely to receive the extended dose (HR 0.68 95% CI 0.30;1.55). Less than 3% of patients with incident VTE received extended treatment after initial standard treatment. Even though international guidelines suggest that the risk-benefit balance is in favour of extended VTE treatment, this was yet to be translated into clinical practice as of 2018. Studies using contemporary data are warranted to investigate routine clinical practice of extended treatment for VTE recurrence.

Should We Reintroduce Previous Venous Thromboembolism Into Decision-Making for Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation?

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate whether history of venous thromboembolism should be considered a prognostic factor for future thromboembolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: This was a nationwide cohort study of patients with incident atrial fibrillation from 2000-2017, defined and characterized using Danish health registries. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the outcomes ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, and ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, or venous thromboembolism, according to history of venous thromboembolism. Analyses were adjusted for components of the CHA2DS2-VASc score and time-varying use of oral anticoagulation. RESULTS: The study included 246,313 patients with incident atrial fibrillation, of which 6,516 (2.6%) had previous venous thromboembolism. Patients with previous venous thromboembolism carried an overall similar adjusted risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism compared with patients without previous venous thromboembolism (reference; hazard ratio 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.09). When analyzing a composite thromboembolic outcome of ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, or venous thromboembolism, patients with previous venous thromboembolism were at high-risk (hazard ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-1.90). Similar conclusions were drawn when stratifying by venous thromboembolism subtype, and when restricting to patients with low CHA2DS2-VASc scores or the non-anticoagulated subset of the study population. CONCLUSION: Patients with atrial fibrillation and previous venous thromboembolism carried similar risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism compared with patients with atrial fibrillation without previous venous thromboembolism. Nonetheless, patients with previous venous thromboembolism remain a high-risk population due to an excess risk of future venous thromboembolism. Patients and physicians should keep this excess thromboembolic risk in mind when weighing the expected risks and benefits of oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Lower Extremity Venous Thromboembolism: A Review.

IMPORTANCE: Incidence rates for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) range from 88 to 112 per 100 000 person-years and increase with age. Rates of recurrent VTE range from 20% to 36% during the 10 years after an initial event. OBSERVATIONS: PubMed and Cochrane databases were searched for English-language studies published from January 2015 through June 2020 for randomized clinical trials, meta-analyses, systematic reviews, and observational studies. Risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE), such as older age, malignancy (cumulative incidence of 7.4% after a median of 19 months), inflammatory disorders (VTE risk is 4.7% in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and 2.5% in those without), and inherited thrombophilia (factor V Leiden carriers with a 10-year cumulative incidence of 10.9%), are associated with higher risk of VTE. Patients with signs or symptoms of lower extremity DVT, such as swelling (71%) or a cramping or pulling discomfort in the thigh or calf (53%), should undergo assessment of pretest probability followed by D-dimer testing and imaging with venous ultrasonography. A normal D-dimer level (ie, D-dimer <500 ng/mL) excludes acute VTE when combined with a low pretest probability (ie, Wells DVT score ≤1). In patients with a high pretest probability, the negative predictive value of a D-dimer less than 500 ng/mL is 92%. Consequently, D-dimer cannot be used to exclude DVT without an assessment of pretest probability. Postthrombotic syndrome, defined as persistent symptoms, signs of chronic venous insufficiency, or both, occurs in 25% to 50% of patients 3 to 6 months after DVT diagnosis. Catheter-directed fibrinolysis with or without mechanical thrombectomy is appropriate in those with iliofemoral obstruction, severe symptoms, and a low risk of bleeding. The efficacy of direct oral anticoagulants-rivaroxaban, apixaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban-is noninferior to warfarin (absolute rate of recurrent VTE or VTE-related death, 2.0% vs 2.2%). Major bleeding occurs in 1.1% of patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants vs 1.8% treated with warfarin. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Greater recognition of VTE risk factors and advances in anticoagulation have facilitated the clinical evaluation and treatment of patients with DVT. Direct oral anticoagulants are noninferior to warfarin with regard to efficacy and are associated with lower rates of bleeding, but costs limit use for some patients.

Cancer-associated venous thromboembolism and the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants: a review of clinical outcomes and patient perspectives.

INTRODUCTION: Cancer-associated venous thromboembolism remains an important but challenging aspect in the treatment of patients with cancer. Recently, alternatives to injection of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) have been introduced, the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs), which could potentially alleviate patients from burdensome daily injections. AREAS COVERED: This review discusses the available evidence exploring the role of NOACs in the treatment and secondary prevention of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism, from randomized trials, observational data, contemporary guideline recommendations, and patient perspectives. EXPERT OPINION: Edoxaban, rivaroxaban, and apixaban have proven attractive alternatives to LMWH for the treatment of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism. Contemporary guidelines have promptly endorsed the use of NOACs in patients with most cancer types. Nonetheless, issues remain regarding bleeding risk, interactions with medical cancer treatment, and the effectiveness and safety for extended treatment periods. There are head-to-head comparisons of the NOACs, and therefore no data favoring the use of one NOAC over the others. Patient's preferences are highly diverse and should be part of routine considerations when weighing risks and benefits associated with various available anticoagulant drugs.

Development of Sex-Stratified Prediction Models for Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To optimize decision making for anticoagulant treatment duration after incident venous thromboembolism, we derived and internally validated two clinically applicable sex-specific prediction models for venous thromboembolism recurrence, discarding the traditional categorization of provoked and unprovoked venous thromboembolism. METHODS: This study was based on data from Danish nationwide registries. We identified all routine care in- and outpatients with completed anticoagulant treatment for incident venous thromboembolism from 2012 through 2017. The outcome was recurrent venous thromboembolism within 2 years. Risk scores were derived using Cox regression analysis and a backward selection process on a set of 24 potential predictors. Performance was assessed through calibration and discrimination using bootstrap techniques to internally validate the scores. RESULTS: The study included 11,519 patients. Risk scores under the joint acronym AIM-SHA-RP were developed. Age, Incident pulmonary embolism, and recent Major surgery were predictors for both sexes; Statin treatment, Heart disease and Antiplatelet treatment were predictors specifically for men, while chronic Renal disease and recent Pneumonia or sepsis were predictors specifically for women. The risk scores were well calibrated and identified a low- (< 5%), intermediate- (5-10%), and high-risk (> 10%) group for both sexes. Generally, discriminative capacities, as measured by the c-statistic, were limited. CONCLUSION: We developed two clinically applicable risk scores to estimate the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism after completed anticoagulant treatment. The risk scores can potentially guide treatment duration of anticoagulation after incident venous thromboembolism but require further external validation before implemented in clinical practice.

Extended oral anticoagulation after incident venous thromboembolism - a paradigm shift?

Introduction: Patients with incident venous thromboembolism carry a chronic risk of suffering a recurrent event. Anticoagulation is effective at preventing recurrence during treatment but also associated with risk of bleeding. Hence, the dilemma of optimal anticoagulant treatment duration beyond the acute treatment phase remains a clinical challenge in the management of venous thromboembolism.Areas covered: This review summarizes the current evidence for extended oral anticoagulant treatment after incident venous thromboembolism, and discusses dilemmas involved in treatment decisions related to extended secondary prevention.Expert opinion: Results from landmark venous thromboembolism-extended treatment studies focused on direct oral anticoagulants suggest a paradigm shift of the risk-benefit balance in favor of extended anticoagulant treatment. Nevertheless, patient preferences need to be considered while persistent concerns about enduring risk of bleeding must be addressed for the new paradigm to be implemented into clinical practice.

Predictors of Not Initiating Anticoagulation After Incident Venous Thromboembolism: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate potential predictors associated with not initiating anticoagulation after incident venous thromboembolism. METHODS: We linked Danish nationwide health registries to identify all patients with incident venous thromboembolism from 2003 through 2016. We defined treatment noninitiation as not claiming a prescription for an anticoagulant drug within 30 days after hospital discharge. To identify potential predictors of noninitiation, relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated adjusting for other compliance-related factors. RESULTS: The study included 38,044 patients with incident venous thromboembolism (53.2% female and median age 66.1 years). Of these, 24.1% (n = 9294) were noninitiators. Demographic and condition-related factors that predicted noninitiation included: female sex (RR 1.30; 95% CI, 1.25-1.34), age <30 vs age >65 years (RR 1.18; 95% CI, 1.13-1.33), hospitalization 0-3 days vs >3 days (RR 1.96; 95% CI, 1.87-2.07), incident deep venous thrombosis (RR 1.91; 95% CI, 1.81-2.01), and unprovoked venous thromboembolism (RR 1.13; 95% CI, 1.08-1.17). Socioeconomic factors had less influence on risk of noninitiation. Individual chronic diseases predictive of noninitiation included congestive heart failure (RR 1.27; 95% CI, 1.17-1.37), ischemic heart disease (RR 1.20; 95% CI, 1.13-1.28), and liver disease (RR 1.60; 95% CI, 1.42-1.81). CONCLUSION: Up to one-fourth of patients diagnosed with incident venous thromboembolism did not initiate anticoagulant treatment within 30 days after hospital discharge. Identification of clinical predictors of noninitiation may enable implementation of patient-tailored strategies to improve adherence and thereby potentially prevent venous thromboembolism morbidity, mortality, and recurrence.

Risk of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: In this study, we aimed to estimate recurrence risk after incident venous thromboembolism, stratified according to unprovoked, provoked, and cancer-related venous thromboembolism in a prospective cohort of inpatients and outpatients receiving routine care. METHODS: We linked nationwide Danish health registries to identify all patients with incident venous thromboembolism from January 2000 through December 2015. Rates of recurrence were calculated and Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by incident venous thromboembolism type after adjusting for coexisting risk factors. RESULTS: The study included 73,993 patients with incident venous thromboembolism (54.1% females; mean age, 62.3 years). At 6-month follow-up, rates per 100 person-years were 6.80, 6.92, and 9.06 for provoked, unprovoked, and cancer-related venous thromboembolism, respectively. At 10-year follow-up, corresponding rates were 2.22, 2.84, and 3.70, respectively. Additionally, at 6-month follow-up, hazard rates of recurrence were comparable for patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism 1.01 (95% CI, 0.92-1.11) and provoked. At 10-year follow-up, unprovoked venous thromboembolism (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.12-1.23) and cancer-related venous thromboembolism (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12-1.32) were associated with higher risk of recurrence compared with that found in provoked venous thromboembolism. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide cohort, patients with cancer-related venous thromboembolism had the highest risk of recurrence. At 6-month follow-up, there were similar risks of recurrence for patients with unprovoked and provoked venous thromboembolism. At 10-year follow-up, recurrence risks were similar for patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism and patients with cancer-related venous thromboembolism. High recurrence risks in all categories indicate that further research is needed to optimize duration of extended anticoagulation for these patients.

Dementia and Atrial Fibrillation: Pathophysiological Mechanisms and Therapeutic Implications.

Atrial fibrillation increases the risk of stroke by a factor of four- to fivefold, and dementia is a common consequence of stroke. However, atrial fibrillation has been associated with cognitive impairment and dementia, even in patients without prior overt stroke. Nonischemic mechanisms include cerebral hypoperfusion, vascular inflammation, brain atrophy, genetic factors, and shared risk factors such as age or hypertension. Critical appraisal of studies evaluating the association between atrial fibrillation and dementia in stroke-free patients reveals that several suffer from methodological issues, such as not including silent stroke or anticoagulation therapy in multivariate analyses. Some studies show a close relationship between atrial fibrillation and dementia due to silent stroke, in the absence of overt stroke. Evidence is accumulating that anticoagulation may be effective to decrease the risk of dementia in atrial fibrillation patients. Overall, the pathogenesis linking atrial fibrillation to dementia is likely multifactorial. Cerebral infarctions, including silent stroke, play a central role. These findings underscore the importance of stroke prevention measures in atrial fibrillation patients.

Smoking, atrial fibrillation, and ischemic stroke: a confluence of epidemics.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Smoking and atrial fibrillation are major contemporary health concerns. They commonly coexist and are frequent causes of ischemic stroke. The purpose of this article is to describe recent scientific investigations about smoking, atrial fibrillation, and ischemic stroke, with a primary focus on prevention. RECENT FINDINGS: Smoking predisposes to atrial fibrillation and is useful for the prediction of future atrial fibrillation. Several recent risk prediction models for adverse events associated with atrial fibrillation include smoking as a component. Smoking status identifies patients at high risk of incident atrial fibrillation, adverse events in an emergency ward after admission with atrial fibrillation, thromboembolic events following a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, and potentially poor control of vitamin K antagonist treatment. SUMMARY: From multiple perspectives of atrial fibrillation, patients who smoke represent a high-risk population. Appropriate preventive measures targeting this endangered population are paramount. These include smoking cessation, appropriate care in the emergency ward, and careful selection of the optimal antithrombotic strategy to reduce the major burden of ischemic stroke attributed to the confluence of the epidemics of smoking and atrial fibrillation.

Duration of Diabetes Mellitus and Risk of Thromboembolism and Bleeding in Atrial Fibrillation: Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Guidelines advocate anticoagulant treatment to all patients with atrial fibrillation and concomitant diabetes mellitus. The potential refinement to thromboembolic risk stratification that may spring from subdividing diabetes mellitus is unexplored. The purpose was to investigate duration of diabetes mellitus as a predictor of thromboembolism and anticoagulant-related bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: Using nationwide Danish registries, we identified all patients discharged from hospital with an incident diagnosis of atrial fibrillation from 2000 to 2011. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for thromboembolism and bleeding according to years of diabetes mellitus duration in categories (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and ≥15) and as a continuous variable using cubic splines were calculated by Cox regression. RESULTS: The study population comprised 137 222 patients with atrial fibrillation, of which 12.4% had diabetes mellitus. Compared with patients without diabetes mellitus and after adjustment for anticoagulant treatment and CHA2DS2-VASc components (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, previous stroke, vascular disease, and sex), the risk of thromboembolism was lowest in the 0 to 4 years duration category (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.20), and highest in the longest duration category of ≥15 years (hazard ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-1.70). When analyzed as a continuous variable, duration of diabetes mellitus was associated with risk of thromboembolism in a dose-response-dependent manner, but not with a higher risk of bleeding during anticoagulant treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with atrial fibrillation, longer duration of diabetes mellitus was associated with a higher risk of thromboembolism, but not with a higher risk of anticoagulant-related bleeding. Considering the critical balance between preventing thromboembolism and avoiding bleeding, longer duration of diabetes mellitus may favor initiation of anticoagulant therapy.