Longitudinal assessment of classic and 11-oxygenated androgen concentrations and their association with type 2 diabetes mellitus development: the Tromsø study.

AIM: We aimed to investigate changes in pre-diagnostic concentrations of classic and 11-oxygenated androgens in type 2 diabetes (T2DM) cases and healthy controls, associations between androgen concentrations and T2DM, and the potential for androgens to improve the prediction of T2DM when considered in combination with established risk factors. METHODS: Androgen concentrations were analysed in serum samples from 116 T2DM cases and 138 controls at 3, pre-diagnostic time-points: 1986/87 (T1), 1994/95 (T2), and 2001 (T3). Generalised estimating equations were used to longitudinally examine androgen concentrations, and logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) of T2DM at each time-point. Logistic regression models were also used to calculate area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AROC) from models including established risk factors alone (ERF model) and established risk factors plus each androgen, respectively, which were compared to identify improvements in predictive ability. RESULTS: For women, no significant associations were observed between any of the investigated androgens and T2DM after adjusting for confounders. For men, after adjusting for confounders, concentrations of all investigated 11-oxygenated androgens were higher in cases than controls at one or several time-points. We observed associations between T2DM and concentrations of 11-ketoandrostenedione (OR: 1.59) and 11-ketotestosterone (OR: 1.62) at T1; and 11-hydroxyandrostenedione (OR: 2.00), 11-hydroxytestosterone (OR: 1.76), 11-ketoandrostenedione (OR: 1.84), 11-ketotestosterone (OR: 1.78) and testosterone (OR: 0.45) at T3 in men. The addition of these androgens (including 11-hydroxytestosterone at T2) to the ERF model resulted in an improved ability to predict T2DM in men (AROC: 0.79-0.82). We did not observe significant differences in changes in androgen concentrations over time between cases and controls in either sex. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that testosterone and 11-oxygenated androgens are associated with T2DM in men before diagnosis and may be potential biomarkers in T2DM risk assessment.

Longitudinal changes in vitamin D concentrations and the association with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Tromsø Study.

AIM: We aimed to investigate the relationship between pre- and post-diagnostic 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) over a period of 30 years in individuals who developed T2DM compared to healthy controls. METHODS: This case-control study included 254 participants with blood samples collected at five different time-points (T1-T5) between 1986 and 2016. Of the 254 participants, 116 were diagnosed with T2DM between T3 and T4, and were considered cases; the remaining 138 were controls. Linear mixed regression models were used to examine pre- and post-diagnostic changes in 25(OH)D concentrations, and logistic regression was used to examine associations between these concentrations and T2DM at each time-point. RESULTS: 25(OH)D concentrations at different time-points and the longitudinal change in concentrations differed between cases and controls, and by sex. For women, each 5-nmol/l increase in 25(OH)D concentrations was inversely associated with T2DM at T3 (odds-ratio, OR, 0.79), whereas for men, this same increase was positively associated with T2DM at T1 (OR 1.12). Cases experienced a significant decrease in pre-diagnostic 25(OH)D concentrations (p value < 0.01 for women, p value = 0.02 for men) and a significant increase in post-diagnostic 25(OH)D concentrations (p value < 0.01 for women, p value = 0.01 for men). As such, each 1-unit increase in month-specific z-score change between T1 and T3 was significantly inversely associated with T2DM (OR 0.51 for women, OR 0.52 for men), and each such increase between T3 and T5 was significantly positively associated with T2DM in women (OR 2.48). CONCLUSIONS: 25(OH)D concentrations seem to be affected by disease progression and type 2 diabetes diagnosis.

Longitudinal changes in blood biomarkers and their ability to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus-The Tromsø study.

INTRODUCTION: Identification of individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is important for early prevention of the disease. Once T2DM is established, it is difficult to treat and is associated with cardiovascular complications and increased mortality. We aimed to describe pre- and post-diagnostic changes in blood biomarker concentrations over 30 years in individuals with and without T2DM, and to determine the predictive potential of pre-diagnostic blood biomarkers. METHODS: This nested case-control study included 234 participants in the Tromsø Study who gave blood samples at five time points between 1986 and 2016: 130 did not develop T2DM and were used as controls; 104 developed T2DM after the third time point and were included as cases. After stratifying by sex, we investigated changes in pre- and post-diagnostic concentrations of lipids, thyroid hormones, HbA1c , glucose and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) using linear mixed models. We used logistic regression models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) to assess associations between blood biomarker concentrations and T2DM, as well as the predictive ability of blood biomarkers. RESULTS: Cases and controls experienced different longitudinal changes in lipids, free T3 , HbA1c , glucose, and GGT. The combination of selected blood biomarker concentrations and basic clinical information displayed excellent (AROC 0.78-0.95) predictive ability at all pre-diagnostic time points. A prediction model that included HDL (for women), HbA1c , GGT, and basic clinical information demonstrated the strongest discrimination 7 years before diagnosis (AROC 0.95 for women, 0.85 for men). CONCLUSION: There were clear differences in blood biomarker concentrations between cases and controls throughout the study, and several blood biomarkers were associated with T2DM. Selected blood biomarkers (lipids, HbA1c , GGT) in combination with BMI, physical activity, elevated blood pressure, and family history of T2DM had excellent predictive ability 1-7 years before T2DM diagnosis and acceptable predictive ability up to 15 years before diagnosis.