The causal effect of mental health on labor market outcomes: The case of stress-related mental disorders following a human-made disaster.

As disasters increase due to climate change, population density, epidemics, and technology, information is needed about postdisaster consequences for people's mental health and how stress-related mental disorders affect multiple spheres of life, including labor-market attachment. We tested the causal hypothesis that individuals who developed stress-related mental disorders as a consequence of their disaster exposure experienced subsequent weak labor-market attachment and poor work-related outcomes. We leveraged a natural experiment in an instrumental variables model, studying a 2004 fireworks factory explosion disaster that precipitated the onset of stress-related disorders (posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression) among individuals in the local community (N = 86,726). We measured labor-market outcomes using longitudinal population-level administrative data: sick leave, unemployment benefits, early retirement pension, and income from wages from 2007 to 2010. We found that individuals who developed a stress-related disorder after the disaster were likely to go on sickness benefit, both in the short- and long-term, were likely to use unemployment benefits and to lose wage income in the long term. Stress-related disorders did not increase the likelihood of early retirement. The natural experiment design minimized the possibility that omitted confounders biased these effects of mental health on work outcomes. Addressing the mental health and employment needs of survivors after a traumatic experience may improve their labor-market outcomes and their nations' economic outputs.

Suicides, drug poisonings, and alcohol-related deaths cluster with health and social disadvantage in 4.1 million citizens from two nations.

BACKGROUND: Deaths from suicides, drug poisonings, and alcohol-related diseases ('deaths of despair') are well-documented among working-age Americans, and have been hypothesized to be largely specific to the U.S. However, support for this assertion-and associated policies to reduce premature mortality-requires tests concerning these deaths in other industrialized countries, with different institutional contexts. We tested whether the concentration and accumulation of health and social disadvantage forecasts deaths of despair, in New Zealand and Denmark. METHODS: We used nationwide administrative data. Our observation period was 10 years (NZ = July 2006-June 2016, Denmark = January 2007-December 2016). We identified all NZ-born and Danish-born individuals aged 25-64 in the last observation year (NZ = 1 555 902, Denmark = 2 541 758). We ascertained measures of disadvantage (public-hospital stays for physical- and mental-health difficulties, social-welfare benefit-use, and criminal convictions) across the first nine years. We ascertained deaths from suicide, drugs, alcohol, and all other causes in the last year. RESULTS: Deaths of despair clustered within a population segment that disproportionately experienced multiple disadvantages. In both countries, individuals in the top 5% of the population in multiple health- and social-service sectors were at elevated risk for deaths from suicide, drugs, and alcohol, and deaths from other causes. Associations were evident across sex and age. CONCLUSIONS: Deaths of despair are a marker of inequalities in countries beyond the U.S. with robust social-safety nets, nationwide healthcare, and strong pharmaceutical regulations. These deaths cluster within a highly disadvantaged population segment identifiable within health- and social-service systems.

Use of Population-Level Administrative Data in Developmental Science.

Population-level administrative data-data on individuals' interactions with administrative systems (e.g., health, criminal justice, and education)-have substantially advanced our understanding of life-course development. In this review, we focus on five areas where research using these data has made significant contributions to developmental science: (a) understanding small or difficult-to-study populations, (b) evaluating intergenerational and family influences, (c) enabling estimation of causal effects through natural experiments and regional comparisons, (d) identifying individuals at risk for negative developmental outcomes, and (e) assessing neighborhood and environmental influences. Further advances will be made by linking prospective surveys to administrative data to expand the range of developmental questions that can be tested; supporting efforts to establish new linked administrative data resources, including in developing countries; and conducting cross-national comparisons to test findings' generalizability. New administrative data initiatives should involve consultation with population subgroups including vulnerable groups, efforts to obtain social license, and strong ethical oversight and governance arrangements.

Nationwide evidence that education disrupts the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.

Despite overall improvements in health and living standards in the Western world, health and social disadvantages persist across generations. Using nationwide administrative databases linked for 2.1 million Danish citizens, we leveraged a three-generation approach to test whether multiple, different health and social disadvantages-poor physical health, poor mental health, social welfare dependency, criminal offending, and Child Protective Services involvement-were transmitted within families and whether education disrupted these statistical associations. Health and social disadvantages concentrated, aggregated, and accumulated within a small, high-need segment of families: Adults who relied disproportionately on multiple, different health and social services tended to have parents who relied disproportionately on multiple, different health and social services and tended to have children who evidenced risk for disadvantage at an early age, through appearance in protective services records. Intra- and intergenerational comparisons were consistent with the possibility that education disrupted this transmission. Within families, siblings who obtained more education were at a reduced risk for later-life disadvantage compared with their cosiblings who obtained less education, despite shared family background. Supporting the education potential of the most vulnerable citizens might mitigate the multigenerational transmission of multiple disadvantages and reduce health and social disparities.

Association of Youth Age at Exposure to Household Dysfunction With Outcomes in Early Adulthood.

Importance: The current focus on the association of negative experiences in early childhood with adverse outcomes later in life is based on limited empirical evidence. Objective: To evaluate whether age at exposure to negative experiences in childhood and adolescence is associated with outcomes in early adulthood. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used population data from administrative sources for all Danish individuals born between 1987 and 1995 who were living in Denmark at 19 years of age. Data were analyzed in July 2020. Exposures: Exposure to 6 household dysfunction items (HDIs) from birth to 17 years of age by age group. Age groups were as follows: 0 to 2 years (early childhood), 3 to 5 years (preschool), 6 to 12 years (mid-childhood), and 13 to 17 years (early adolescence). The 6 items were parents' unemployment, incarceration, mental disorders, death, and divorce and the child's foster care experiences. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mental disorders, low educational attainment, disconnection from education and the labor market, and criminal charges. A fixed-effects model was used to estimate the dose-response and age-specific associations between HDI exposure and the collated outcome measure. Results: The study sample included 605 344 individuals observed from birth to 19 years of age (mean [SD] birth year, 1991 [2.56] years; range, 1987-1995; 335 725 [55%] male). Overall, 278 115 individuals (45.94%) were exposed to 1 or more of the 6 HDIs from birth to 17 years of age. Exposure was most prevalent at 1 year of age (exposure rate, 11.3%), and parental unemployment was the most common HDI (15.5% observed in mid-childhood). The risk of experiencing the 4 outcomes was monotonically associated with the number of HDIs. For example, experiencing 1 HDI between birth and 17 years of age was associated with an increased risk of experiencing an adverse outcome by approximately 1.0 percentage point (ß = 0.011; 95% CI, 0.010-0.012; P < .001). Similarly, the risk of experiencing adverse outcomes varied significantly in association with age at exposure. Exposure during early adolescence was more strongly associated with adverse outcomes than was exposure during early childhood (increased risk of 5.8 percentage points [ß = 0.058; 95% CI, 0.052-0.063; P < .001] vs 1.0 [ß = 0.010; 95% CI, 0.004-0.015; P = .001]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, exposure to negative experiences in early adolescence was more strongly associated with later adverse outcomes than was exposure at other points in childhood. Knowledge of age-specific associations is important information for policy makers who need to prioritize resources targeting disadvantaged children and youths.

The effects of unemployment on fertility.

We analyse the effects of unemployment on the likelihood of having a first and second birth in Denmark. The existing studies on this topic have generated contradictory results, and have made a weak case for the exogeneity of unemployment to fertility. We suggest that firm closures constitute an exogenous source of unemployment, and adopt firm closures as an instrument for estimating individuals' fertility responses. Using a life-course approach, we exploit unique administrative data from Denmark that include all Danish residents born in 1966 and followed between 1982 and 2006. The data contain monthly information about each individual's employment status, type of employer, relationship status and partner's characteristics; as well as very detailed fertility information, including on stillbirths and registered miscarriages. We find that unemployment has a positive effect on motherhood transitions and a negative effect on fatherhood transitions, although the latter is not robust to the inclusion of controls. We find no significant effect of unemployment on second births.

Clustering of health, crime and social-welfare inequality in 4 million citizens from two nations.

Health and social scientists have documented the hospital revolving-door problem, the concentration of crime, and long-term welfare dependence. Have these distinct fields identified the same citizens? Using administrative databases linked to 1.7 million New Zealanders, we quantified and monetized inequality in distributions of health and social problems and tested whether they aggregate within individuals. Marked inequality was observed: Gini coefficients equalled 0.96 for criminal convictions, 0.91 for public-hospital nights, 0.86 for welfare benefits, 0.74 for prescription-drug fills and 0.54 for injury-insurance claims. Marked aggregation was uncovered: a small population segment accounted for a disproportionate share of use-events and costs across multiple sectors. These findings were replicated in 2.3 million Danes. We then integrated the New Zealand databases with the four-decade-long Dunedin Study. The high-need/high-cost population segment experienced early-life factors that reduce workforce readiness, including low education and poor mental health. In midlife they reported low life satisfaction. Investing in young people's education and training potential could reduce health and social inequalities and enhance population wellbeing.

Drinking Alone? The Effect of an Alcohol Treatment Program on Relationship Stability for Convicted Drunk Drivers in Denmark.

This article tests whether an alcohol treatment program for drunk drivers in Denmark increased the stability of their relationships with spouses or cohabiting partners. The treatment program, implemented in 1990, allowed a group of offenders to avoid prison and participate in a rehabilitation program. I use it here as a natural experiment, exploiting a rich administrative dataset to show that the program marginally increases offenders' relationship stability. I also test whether increased relationship stability observed among the treated offenders results from their pardon from prison or from their participation in the rehabilitation program. Results suggest that the rehabilitation program drives the effect. These findings contribute to the literature on what alternative sanctions could be offered to offenders to improve their long-term social outcomes.

Family matters? The effect of kinship care on foster care disruption rates.

Compared with other types of out-of-home care, kinship care is cheap, and offers the child a more familiar environment. However, little is known about the causal effect of kinship care on important outcomes. This study is the first to estimate causal effects of kinship care on placement stability, using full-sample administrative data (N=13,157) and instrumental variables methods. Results show that, in a sample of children of age 0-17 years, kinship care is as stable as other types of care, and only when the kin caregiver is particularly empathic and dutiful does this type of care prove more stable. Thus, in terms of stability, most children do not benefit additionally from being placed with kin.

Effect of Marriage and Spousal Criminality on Recidivism.

The authors analyzed whether the effect of marriage on recidivism varied by spousal criminality. For this purpose, they used propensity score matching and full population data from Statistics Denmark on all unmarried and previously convicted men from birth cohorts 1965-1985 (N = 102,839). The results showed that marriage reduced recidivism compared to nonmarriage only when the spouse had no criminal record. Similarly, marriage to a nonconvicted spouse reduced recidivism significantly more than marriage to a convicted spouse. These findings not only underline how important marriage is for social integration but also stress the heterogeneous nature of the protective effects of marriage.

Parental incarceration and child mortality in Denmark.

OBJECTIVES: We used Danish registry data to examine the association between parental incarceration and child mortality risk. METHODS: We used a sample of all Danish children born in 1991 linked with parental information. We conducted discrete-time survival analysis separately for boys (n = 30 146) and girls (n = 28 702) to estimate the association of paternal and maternal incarceration with child mortality, controlling for parental sociodemographic characteristics. We followed the children until age 20 years or death, whichever came first. RESULTS: Results indicated a positive association between paternal and maternal imprisonment and male child mortality. Paternal imprisonment was associated with lower child mortality risks for girls. The relationship between maternal imprisonment and female child mortality changed directions depending on the model, suggesting no clear association. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that the incarceration of a parent may influence child mortality but that it is important to consider the gender of both the child and the incarcerated parent.

Educational assortative mating and income inequality in Denmark.

Many writers have expressed a concern that growing educational assortative mating will lead to greater inequality between households in their earnings or income. In this article, we examine the relationship between educational assortative mating and income inequality in Denmark between 1987 and 2006. Denmark is widely known for its low level of income inequality, but the Danish case provides a good test of the relationship between educational assortative mating and inequality because although income inequality increased over the period we consider, educational homogamy declined. Using register data on the exact incomes of the whole population, we find that change in assortative mating increased income inequality but that these changes were driven by changes in the educational distributions of men and women rather than in the propensity for people to choose a partner with a given level of education.

The cost of sickness: on the effect of the duration of sick leave on post-sick leave earnings.

Studies analysing the effect of the duration of sick leave on subsequent labour market outcomes do not consider the potential endogenous relationship between duration and labour market outcomes. This paper deals with this shortcoming by using a consistent estimator attained through Instrumental Variables methods for estimating the effect of the duration of a sick leave spell on post-sick leave earnings. I use Danish administrative data and a major 2001 reform of the sick leave system as the instrument for duration. I find that the duration of a sick leave spell has both short and long term effects on post-sick leave earnings.