RESUMEN
The brain age gap (BAG) has been shown to capture accelerated brain aging patterns and might serve as a biomarker for several neurological diseases. Moreover, it was also shown that it captures other biological information related to modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. Previous studies have explored statistical relationships between the BAG and cardiovascular risk factors. However, none of those studies explored causal relationships between the BAG and cardiovascular risk factors. In this work, we employ causal structure discovery techniques and define a Bayesian network to model the assumed causal relationships between the BAG, estimated using morphometric T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging brain features from 2025 adults, and several cardiovascular risk factors. This setup allows us to not only assess observed conditional probability distributions of the BAG given cardiovascular risk factors, but also to isolate the causal effect of each cardiovascular risk factor on BAG using causal inference. Results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed causal analysis approach by illustrating intuitive causal relationships between variables. For example, body-mass-index, waist-to-hip ratio, smoking, and alcohol consumption were found to impact the BAG, with the greatest impact for obesity markers resulting in higher chances of developing accelerated brain aging. Moreover, the findings show that causal effects differ from correlational effects, demonstrating the importance of accounting for variable relationships and confounders when evaluating the information captured by a biomarker. Our work demonstrates the feasibility and advantages of using causal analyses instead of purely correlation-based and univariate statistical analyses in the context of brain aging and related problems.
RESUMEN
Introduction: The difference between the chronological and biological brain age, called the brain age gap (BAG), has been identified as a promising biomarker to detect deviation from normal brain aging and to indicate the presence of neurodegenerative diseases. Moreover, the BAG has been shown to encode biological information about general health, which can be measured through cardiovascular risk factors. Current approaches for biological brain age estimation, and therefore BAG estimation, either depend on hand-crafted, morphological measurements extracted from brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or on direct analysis of brain MRI images. The former can be processed with traditional machine learning models while the latter is commonly processed with convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Using a multimodal setting, this study aims to compare both approaches in terms of biological brain age prediction accuracy and biological information captured in the BAG. Methods: T1-weighted MRI, containing brain tissue information, and magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), providing information about brain arteries, from 1,658 predominantly healthy adults were used. The volumes, surface areas, and cortical thickness of brain structures were extracted from the T1-weighted MRI data, while artery density and thickness within the major blood flow territories and thickness of the major arteries were extracted from MRA data. Independent multilayer perceptron and CNN models were trained to estimate the brain age from the hand-crafted features and image data, respectively. Next, both approaches were fused to assess the benefits of combining image data and hand-crafted features for brain age prediction. Results: The combined model achieved a mean absolute error of 4 years between the chronological and predicted biological brain age. Among the independent models, the lowest mean absolute error was observed for the CNN using T1-weighted MRI data (4.2 years). When evaluating the BAGs obtained using the different approaches and imaging modalities, diverging associations between cardiovascular risk factors were found. For example, BAGs obtained from the CNN models showed an association with systolic blood pressure, while BAGs obtained from hand-crafted measurements showed greater associations with obesity markers. Discussion: In conclusion, the use of more diverse sources of data can improve brain age estimation modeling and capture more diverse biological deviations from normal aging.
