Health Expenditures After Bariatric Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Bariatric surgery leads to substantial improvements in weight and weight-related conditions, but prior literature on post-surgical health expenditures is equivocal. In a retrospective cohort study, we compared expenditures between surgical and matched non-surgical patients. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA AND METHODS: In a retrospective study, total, outpatient, inpatient and medication expenditures 3 years before and 5.5 years after surgery were compared between 22,698 bariatric surgery (n=7,127 RYGB, 15,571 sleeve gastrectomy) patients from 2012-2019 and 66,769 matched non-surgical patients, using generalized estimating equations. We also compared expenditures between patients receiving the two leading surgical procedures in weighted analyses. RESULTS: Surgical and non-surgical cohorts were well matched, 80-81% female, with mean body mass index (BMI) of 44, and mean age of 47 (RYGB) and 44 (SG) years. Estimated total expenditures were similar between surgical and non-surgical groups 3 years before surgery ($27 difference, 95% confidence interval (CI): -42, 102)), increased 6 months prior to surgery for surgical patients, and decreased below pre-period levels for both groups after 3-5.5 years to become similar (difference at 5.5 y=-$61, 95% CI: -166, 52). Long-term outpatient expenditures were similar between groups. Surgical patients' lower long-term medication expenditures ($314 lower at 5.5 y, 95% CI: -419, -208) were offset by a higher risk of hospitalization. Total expenditures were similar between RYGB and SG patients 3.5 to 5.5 years after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery translated into lower medication expenditures than matched controls, but not lower overall long-term expenditures. Expenditure trends appear similar for the two leading bariatric operations.

Pre-surgical factors related to latent trajectories of 5-year weight loss for a diverse bariatric surgery population.

BACKGROUND: Analyzing trajectories of weight loss may address how particular groups of patients respond to metabolic and bariatric surgery. OBJECTIVES: The Bariatric Experience Long Term (BELONG) study was designed to use a theoretical model to examine determinants of weight loss and recurrence. SETTING: Large integrated health system in Southern California with 11 surgical practices and 23 surgeons. METHODS: A total of n = 1338 patients who had metabolic and bariatric surgery were surveyed before surgery to measure factors related to median percent total weight loss (%TWL) over 5 years. Longitudinal weight data were available for n = 1024 (76.5% of the sample). Data were analyzed using latent growth mixture models (GMM) to estimate trajectories of weight change separately for gastric sleeve and bypass operations. These trajectories were then described using relevant variables from the baseline survey. RESULTS: For both gastric sleeve (n = 733) and bypass (n = 291) operations, 3 latent trajectories of median %TWL were found corresponding to most, moderate, and least %TWL. Sleeve trajectories were distinguished by body mass index at surgery and geocoded environmental factors. Bypass trajectories varied by self-reported and geocoded environmental factors, comorbidity burden, race, experiential avoidance, and weight control strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Future research should examine the role of the built and perceived environment in surgical weight loss. Bariatric practices should focus less on the presurgical period for predictors of long-term weight loss and begin efforts to monitor real-time patient-reported outcomes to help tailor intervention strategies for patients who either do not lose an expected amount of weight or who begin to experience weight recurrence.

Contemporary care patterns in the management of small renal masses.

OBJECTIVES: Incidental small renal masses (SRMs) now account for the majority of new diagnoses of renal cancers. Although there are established management guidelines, referral and management patterns can vary. We aimed to explore identification, practice patterns, and management of identified SRMs in an integrated health system. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. METHODS: We identified patients with a newly diagnosed SRM measuring 3 cm or less from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017, at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. These patients were flagged at the time of radiographic identification to ensure adequate notification of findings. Diagnostic modality, referral, and treatment patterns were analyzed. RESULTS: Of 519 patients with SRMs, 65% were found on abdominal CT and 22% on renal/abdominal ultrasounds. Within 6 months, 70% of patients consulted with a urologist. Initial management patterns were as follows: active surveillance (60%), partial/radical nephrectomy (18%), and ablation (4%). Among 312 patients on surveillance, 14% eventually received treatment. The majority of patients (69.4%) did not receive guideline-recommended chest imaging for initial staging. Urologist visit within 6 months of SRM diagnosis was associated with increased adherence to staging (P = .003) and subsequent surveillance imaging (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In this contemporary analysis of an integrated health system's experience, referral to a urologist was associated with guideline-concordant staging and surveillance imaging. Frequent utilization of active surveillance with a low rate of progression to active treatment was noted in both groups. These findings shed light on care patterns upstream of urologic evaluation and support the need for clinical pathways to be implemented at the time of radiologic diagnosis.

Associations of Physical Inactivity and COVID-19 Outcomes Among Subgroups.

INTRODUCTION: Physical activity before COVID-19 infection is associated with less severe outcomes. The study determined whether a dose‒response association was observed and whether the associations were consistent across demographic subgroups and chronic conditions. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of Kaiser Permanente Southern California adult patients who had a positive COVID-19 diagnosis between January 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021 was created. The exposure was the median of at least 3 physical activity self-reports before diagnosis. Patients were categorized as follows: always inactive, all assessments at 10 minutes/week or less; mostly inactive, median of 0-60 minutes per week; some activity, median of 60-150 minutes per week; consistently active, median>150 minutes per week; and always active, all assessments>150 minutes per week. Outcomes were hospitalization, deterioration event, or death 90 days after a COVID-19 diagnosis. Data were analyzed in 2022. RESULTS: Of 194,191 adults with COVID-19 infection, 6.3% were hospitalized, 3.1% experienced a deterioration event, and 2.8% died within 90 days. Dose‒response effects were strong; for example, patients in the some activity category had higher odds of hospitalization (OR=1.43; 95% CI=1.26, 1.63), deterioration (OR=1.83; 95% CI=1.49, 2.25), and death (OR=1.92; 95% CI=1.48, 2.49) than those in the always active category. Results were generally consistent across sex, race and ethnicity, age, and BMI categories and for patients with cardiovascular disease or hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: There were protective associations of physical activity for adverse COVID-19 outcomes across demographic and clinical characteristics. Public health leaders should add physical activity to pandemic control strategies.

Clinical management and outcomes for febrile infants 29-60 days evaluated in community emergency departments.

Objective: Describe emergency department (ED) management and patient outcomes for febrile infants 29-60 days of age who received a lumbar puncture (LP), with focus on timing of antibiotics and type of physician performing LP. Methods: Retrospective observational study of 35 California EDs from January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2019. Primary analysis was among patients with successful LP and primary outcome was hospital length of stay (LOS). Logistic regression analysis included variables associated with LOS of at least 2 days. Secondary outcomes were bacterial meningitis, hospital admission, length of antibiotics, and readmission. Results: Among 2569 febrile infants (median age 39 days), 667 underwent successful LP and 633 received intravenous antibiotics. Most infants (n = 559, 88.3%) had their LP before intravenous antibiotic administration. Pediatricians performed 54% of LPs and emergency physicians 34%. Sixteen infants (0.6% of 2569) were diagnosed with bacterial meningitis, and none died. Five hundred and fifty-eight (88%) infants receiving an LP were hospitalized. Among patients receiving an LP and antibiotics (n = 633), 6.5% were readmitted within 30 days. Patients receiving antibiotics before LP had a longer length of antibiotics (+ 7.9 hours, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8-13.4). Primary analysis found no association between timing of antibiotics and LOS (odds ratio [OR] 0.67, 95% CI 0.34-1.30), but shorter LOS when emergency physicians performed the LP (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.45-0.97). Conclusions: Febrile infants in the ED had no deaths and few cases of bacterial meningitis. In community EDs, where a pediatrician is often not available, successful LP by emergency physician was associated with reduced inpatient LOS.

Does Hospital Admission/Observation for Chest Pain Improve Patient Outcomes after Emergency Department Evaluation for Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome?

BACKGROUND: Chest pain is the top reason for hospitalization/observation in the USA, but it is unclear if this strategy improves patient outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare 30-day outcomes for patients admitted versus discharged after a negative emergency department (ED) evaluation for suspected acute coronary syndrome. DESIGN: A retrospective, multi-site, cohort study of adult encounters with chest pain presenting to one of 13 Kaiser Permanente Southern California EDs between January 1, 2015, and December 1, 2017. Instrumental variable analysis was used to mitigate potential confounding by unobserved factors. PATIENTS: All adult patients presenting to an ED with chest pain, in whom an acute myocardial infarction was not diagnosed in the ED, were included. MAIN MEASURES: The primary outcome was 30-day acute myocardial infarction or all-cause mortality, and secondary outcomes included 30-day revascularization and major adverse cardiac events. KEY RESULTS: In total, 77,652 patient encounters were included in the study (n=11,026 admitted, 14.2%). Three hundred twenty-two (0.4%) had an acute myocardial infarction (n=193, 0.2%) or death (n=137, 0.2%) within 30 days of ED visit (1.5% hospitalized versus 0.2% discharged). Very few (0.3%) patients underwent coronary revascularization within 30 days (0.7% hospitalized versus 0.2% discharged). Instrumental variable analysis found no adjusted differences in 30-day patient outcomes between the hospitalized cohort and those discharged (risk reduction 0.002, 95% CI -0.002 to 0.007). Similarly, there were no differences in coronary revascularization (risk reduction 0.003, 95% CI -0.002 to 0.007). CONCLUSION: Among ED patients with chest pain not diagnosed with an acute myocardial infarction, risk of major adverse cardiac events is quite low, and there does not appear to be any benefit in 30-day outcomes for those admitted or observed in the hospital compared to those discharged with outpatient follow-up.

Are Mental Health and Substance Use Disorders Risk Factors for Missed Acute Myocardial Infarction Diagnoses Among Chest Pain or Dyspnea Encounters in the Emergency Department?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess if having a mental health and/or substance use disorder is associated with a missed acute myocardial infarction diagnosis in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis (2009 to 2017) of adult ED encounters at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. We used the validated symptom-disease pair analysis of diagnostic error methodological approach to "look back" and "look forward" and identify missed acute myocardial infarctions within 30 days of a treat-and-release ED visit. We use adjusted logistic regression to report the odds of missed acute myocardial infarction among patients with a history of mental health and/or substance use disorders. RESULTS: The look-back analysis identified 44,473 acute myocardial infarction hospital encounters; 574 (1.3%) diagnoses were missed. The odds of missed diagnoses were higher in patients with mental health disorders (odds ratio [OR] 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23 to 1.77) but not in those with substance abuse disorders (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.62). The highest risk was observed in those with co-occurring disorders (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.76). The look-forward analysis identified 325,088 chest pain/dyspnea ED encounters; 508 (0.2%) were missed acute myocardial infarctions. No significant associations of missed acute myocardial infarction were revealed in either group (mental health disorder: OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.18; substance use disorder: OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.85). CONCLUSION: The look-back analysis identified patients with mental illness at increased risk of missed acute myocardial infarction diagnosis, with the highest risk observed in those with a history of comorbid substance abuse. Having substance use disorders alone did not increase this risk in either cohort. The look-forward analysis revealed challenges in prospectively identifying high-risk patients to target for improvement.

Association between post-hospital clinic and telephone follow-up provider visits with 30-day readmission risk in an integrated health system.

BACKGROUND: Follow-up visits with clinic providers after hospital discharge may not be feasible for some patients due to functional limitations, transportation challenges, need for physical distancing, or fear of exposure especially during the current COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The aim of the study was to determine the effects of post-hospital clinic (POSH) and telephone (TPOSH) follow-up provider visits versus no visit on 30-day readmission. We used a retrospective cohort design based on data from 1/1/2017 to 12/31/2019 on adult patients (n = 213,513) discharged home from 15 Kaiser Permanente Southern California hospitals. Completion of POSH or TPOSH provider visits within 7 days of discharge was the exposure and all-cause 30-day inpatient and observation stay readmission was the primary outcome. We used matching weights to balance the groups and Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model to assess for readmission risk. RESULTS: Unweighted all-cause 30-day readmission rate was highest for patients who completed a TPOSH (17.3%) followed by no visit (14.2%), non-POSH (evaluation and management visits that were not focused on the hospitalization: 13.6%) and POSH (12.6%) visits. The matching weighted models showed that the effects of POSH and TPOSH visits varied across patient subgroups. For high risk (LACE 11+) medicine patients, both POSH (HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.85, P < .001) and TPOSH (HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.99, P = .03) were associated with 23 and 9% lower risk of 30-day readmission, respectively, compared to no visit. For medium to low risk medicine patients (LACE< 11) and all surgical patients regardless of LACE score or age, there were no significant associations for either visit type with risk of 30-day readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Post-hospital telephone follow-up provider visits had only modest effects on 30-day readmission in high-risk medicine patients compared to clinic visits. It remains to be determined if greater use and comfort with virtual visits by providers and patients as a result of the pandemic might improve the effectiveness of these encounters.

Single vs Serial Measurements of Cardiac Troponin Level in the Evaluation of Patients in the Emergency Department With Suspected Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Importance: Chest pain is among the most common reasons for emergency department (ED) presentations. However, most patients are at low risk for acute coronary syndrome (ACS), with low cardiac adverse outcomes rates. Biomarker testing with troponin levels is key in the initial assessment for ACS. Although serial troponin testing can improve the diagnosis of ACS in clinical practice, some patients deemed to be low risk are discharged after a single negative troponin test result. Objective: To report the clinical outcomes of patients discharged after a single negative troponin test result compared with patients discharged after serial troponin measurements. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a retrospective cohort study of ED encounters from May 5, 2016, to December 1, 2017, across 15 community EDs within an integrated health care system in southern California. The study cohort includes 27 918 adult ED encounters in which patients were evaluated for suspected ACS with a HEART (history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, and troponin) score and an initial conventional troponin-I measurement below the level of detection (<0.02 ng/mL). Statistical analysis was performed from December 1, 2019, to December 1, 2020. Exposure: Single troponin test vs multiple troponin tests. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was acute myocardial infarction or cardiac mortality; secondary outcomes included coronary artery bypass graft, percutaneous coronary intervention, invasive coronary angiography, and unstable angina within 30 days of discharge. A multivariable logistic regression model was performed to evaluate the association between testing strategies and clinical outcomes. Results: A total of 27 918 patient encounters (16 212 women [58.1%]; mean [SD] age, 58.7 [15.2] years) were included in the study. Of patients with an initial troponin measurement below the level of detection, 14 459 (51.8%) were discharged after a single troponin measurement, and 13 459 (48.2%) underwent serial troponin tests. After adjustment for cardiac risk factors and comorbidities, there was no statistically significant difference in the primary outcome of acute myocardial infarction or cardiac mortality within 30 days between the 2 groups (single troponin, 56 [0.4%] vs serial troponin, 52 [0.4%]; adjusted odds ratio, 1.41 [95% CI, 0.96-2.07]). Patients discharged after a single troponin test had lower rates of coronary artery bypass graft (adjusted odds ratio, 0.24 [95% CI, 0.11-0.48]) and invasive coronary angiography (adjusted odds ratio, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.38-0.56]). Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that patients are routinely discharged from the ED after a single negative troponin test result, and when compared with serial troponin testing, a single troponin test appears safe based on current physician decision-making, with no difference in rates of 30-day cardiac mortality and acute myocardial infarction, which are low in both groups.

A Patient Portal-Based Commitment Device to Improve Adherence with Screening for Colorectal Cancer: a Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite significant investment in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, 40% of US adults are not up-to-date. Commitment devices, which are psychologically tailored approaches to enforce health goals, may be an effective method to increase CRC screening. OBJECTIVE: Compare the effectiveness of a commitment device (patient self-ordering fecal immunochemical test (FIT) kits) to standard CRC screening outreach. DESIGN: A retrospective observational study. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were > 49 years and < 75 years, had no history of CRC, and were eligible for CRC screening. INTERVENTION: An electronic screening reminder with an embedded order button allowed participants to order FIT kits directly from a patient portal. Those who used the order button were promptly sent a kit; those who did not were later mailed kits. MAIN MEASURES: Primary outcome was completion of FIT kits. Secondary outcomes included number of days to completion, completion of follow-up for positive results, and CRC diagnosis; we also examined prior use of FIT kit. We used inverse probability of treatment weights to control for pretreatment imbalances. KEY RESULTS: The cohort comprised 176,231 participants: 53% female; median age was 59; 11% were Asian, 21% Hispanic/Latino, 7% black, 51% White, 3% other/mixed race. Approximately 10% (N = 16,918) used the button. Using inverse probability of treatment weights, we found that those who used the button had 3.8 times the odds of completing a kit compared to participants who did not (odds ratio, 3.77; 95% confidence interval, 3.57-3.98). Within the button group, 63% of those eligible completed a FIT kit in the year prior to the button compared to 87% in the year after the button became available (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The ability to self-order screening kits may act as a commitment device that increases CRC screening. Scalable tools leveraging existing patient portals such as this can complement existing CRC outreach strategies.

Evaluating Sex Disparities in the Emergency Department Management of Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We compare clinical management and outcomes of emergency department (ED) encounters by sex after implementation of a clinical care pathway in 15 community EDs that standardized recommendations based on patient risk, using the History, ECG, Age, Risk Factors, and Troponin (HEART) score. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of adult ED encounters evaluated for suspected acute coronary syndrome with a documented HEART score from May 20, 2016, to December 1, 2017. The primary outcomes were hospitalization or 30-day stress testing. Secondary outcomes included 30-day acute myocardial infarction or all-cause death (major adverse cardiac event). A generalized estimating equation regression model was used to compare the odds of hospitalization or stress testing by sex; we report HEART scores (0 to 10) stratified by sex and describing major adverse cardiac events. RESULTS: A total of 34,715 adult ED encounters met the inclusion criteria (56.0% women). A higher proportion of women were classified as low risk (60.5% versus 52.4%; odds ratio [OR] 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33 to 1.45). Women were hospitalized or received stress testing less frequently than men for low HEART scores (18.8% versus 22.8%; OR 0.79; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.84) and intermediate ones (46.7% versus 49.7%; OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.95), but similarly for high-risk ones (74.1% versus 74.4%; OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.77 to 1.28). Women had 18% lower odds of hospitalization or noninvasive cardiac testing (OR 0.82; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.86), even after adjusting for HEART score and comorbidities. Men had higher risks of major adverse cardiac events than women for all HEART score categories but the risk for men was significantly higher among low-risk HEART scores (0.4% versus 0.1%). CONCLUSION: Women with low-risk HEART scores are hospitalized or stress tested less than men, which is likely appropriate, and women have better outcomes than men. Use of the HEART score has the potential to reduce sex disparities in acute coronary syndrome care.

Missed acute myocardial infarction in the emergency department-standardizing measurement of misdiagnosis-related harms using the SPADE method.

OBJECTIVES: Diagnostic error is a serious public health problem. Measuring diagnostic performance remains elusive. We sought to measure misdiagnosis-related harms following missed acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) in the emergency department (ED) using the symptom-disease pair analysis of diagnostic error (SPADE) method. METHODS: Retrospective administrative data analysis (2009-2017) from a single, integrated health system using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coded discharge diagnoses. We looked back 30 days from AMI hospitalizations for antecedent ED treat-and-release visits to identify symptoms linked to probable missed AMI (observed > expected). We then looked forward from these ED discharge diagnoses to identify symptom-disease pair misdiagnosis-related harms (AMI hospitalizations within 30-days, representing diagnostic adverse events). RESULTS: A total of 44,473 AMI hospitalizations were associated with 2,874 treat-and-release ED visits in the prior 30 days. The top plausibly-related ED discharge diagnoses were "chest pain" and "dyspnea" with excess treat-and-release visit rates of 9.8% (95% CI 8.5-11.2%) and 3.4% (95% CI 2.7-4.2%), respectively. These represented 574 probable missed AMIs resulting in hospitalization (adverse event rate per AMI 1.3%, 95% CI 1.2-1.4%). Looking forward, 325,088 chest pain or dyspnea ED discharges were followed by 508 AMI hospitalizations (adverse event rate per symptom discharge 0.2%, 95% CI 0.1-0.2%). CONCLUSIONS: The SPADE method precisely quantifies misdiagnosis-related harms from missed AMIs using administrative data. This approach could facilitate future assessment of diagnostic performance across health systems. These results correspond to ∼10,000 potentially-preventable harms annually in the US. However, relatively low error and adverse event rates may pose challenges to reducing harms for this ED symptom-disease pair.

Identifying Patients with Low Risk of Acute Coronary Syndrome Without Troponin Testing: Validation of the HEAR Score.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction are mainly based on troponin testing, commonly requiring an emergency department visit. HEAR score (History, Electrocardiogram, Age, and Risk factors) is a risk stratification tool validated in Europe, deduced from the HEART score (History, Electrocardiogram, Age, Risk factors, and Troponin), already implemented in clinical practice. We aimed to validate the HEAR score to rule out an acute myocardial infarction without needing biomarker testing. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study at 15 emergency departments between May 2016 and December 2017. All adult encounters evaluated for possible acute myocardial infarction with a physician-documented HEART score for health plan members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California were included. Patients with an ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, those under hospice care, or with a "do not resuscitate" status were excluded. HEAR scores from 0-8 were calculated for each encounter and used to report 30-day acute myocardial infarction or all-cause mortality for each score. RESULTS: There were 22,109 patient encounters included in the study. Overall, 30-day acute myocardial infarction or death occurred in 1.1% of patients. Among the 4106 patients (19%) with a HEAR score <2, 3 died and 2 experienced an acute myocardial infarction within 30 days (0.1%; 95% confidence interval, 0.1-0.3). Sensitivity and specificity were 97.9% and 18.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A low HEAR score may accurately identify patients with a very low risk of 30-day acute myocardial infarction or death, representing a cohort of patients who might appropriately forego biomarker testing. Future research is warranted to assess the impact of implementing the HEAR score into routine clinical practice.

Evaluation of a Transitional Care Program After Hospitalization for Heart Failure in an Integrated Health Care System.

Importance: Prompted by null findings from several care transition trials and practice changes for heart failure in recent years, leaders from a large integrated health care system aimed to reassess the outcomes of its 10-year multicomponent transitional care program for heart failure (HF-TCP). Objective: To examine the association of the individual HF-TCP components and their bundle with the primary outcome of all-cause 30-day inpatient or observation stay readmissions. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included patients enrolled in the HF-TCP during an inpatient encounter for heart failure at 13 Kaiser Permanente Southern California hospitals from January 1, 2013, to October 31, 2018, who were followed up from discharge until 30 days, readmission, or death. Data were analyzed from May 7, 2019, to May 1, 2020, with additional review from September 2 to October 1, 2020. Exposures: Patients received 1 home health visit or telecare (telephone) visit from a registered nurse within 2 days of hospital discharge, a heart failure care manager call within 7 days, and a clinic visit with a physician or a nurse practitioner within 7 days. Main Outcomes and Measures: Multivariable proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the probability of 30-day readmission for those who received the individual or bundled HF-TCP components compared with those who did not. Results: A total of 26 128 patients were included; 57.0% were male, and the mean (SD) age was 73 (13) years. The 30-day readmission rate was 18.1%. Both exposure to a home health visit within 2 days of discharge (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 0.96-1.10) and a 7-day heart failure case manager call (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.99-1.18) compared with no visit or call were not associated with a lower rate of readmission. Completion of a 7-day clinic visit was associated with a lower readmission rate (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.81-0.94) compared with no clinic visit. There were no synergistic effects of all 3 components compared with clinic visit alone (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.87-1.28). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that HF-TCP as a whole was not associated with a reduction in 30-day readmission rates, although a follow-up clinic visit within 7 days of discharge may be helpful. These findings highlight the importance of continuous quality improvement and refinement of existing clinical programs.

Early Noninvasive Cardiac Testing After Emergency Department Evaluation for Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Importance: Professional guidelines recommend noninvasive cardiac testing (NIT) within 72 hours of an emergency department (ED) evaluation for suspected acute coronary syndrome. However, there is inexact evidence that this strategy reduces the risk of future death or acute myocardial infarction (MI). Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of early NIT in reducing the risk of death or acute MI within 30 days. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, multicenter cohort study within the Kaiser Permanente Southern California integrated health care delivery system compared the effectiveness of early noninvasive cardiac testing vs no testing in patients with chest pain and in whom acute MI was ruled out who presented to an ED from January 2015 to December 2017. Patients were followed up for up to 30 days after emergency department discharge. Exposures: Noninvasive cardiac testing performed within 3 days of an ED evaluation for suspected acute coronary syndrome. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was composite risk of death or acute MI, within 30 days of an ED discharge. Results: A total of 79 040 patients were evaluated in this study, of whom 57.7% were female. The mean (SD) age of the cohort was 57 (16) years, and 16 164 patients (21%) had completed early NIT. The absolute risk of death or MI within 30 days was low (<1%). Early NIT had the minor benefit of reducing the absolute composite risk of death or MI (0.4% [95% CI, -0.6% to -0.3%]), and, separately, of death (0.2% [95% CI, -0.2% to -0.1%]), MI (-0.3% [95% CI, -0.5% to -0.1%]), and major adverse cardiac event (-0.5% [95% CI, -0.7% to -0.3%]). The number needed to treat was 250 to avoid 1 death or MI, 500 to avoid 1 death, 333 to avoid 1 MI, and 200 to avoid 1 major adverse cardiovascular event within 30 days. Subgroup analysis revealed a number needed to treat of 14 to avoid 1 death or MI in the subset of patients with elevated troponin. Conclusions and Relevance: Early NIT was associated with a small decrease in the risk of death or MI in patients admitted to the ED with suspected acute coronary syndrome, but this clinical strategy may not be optimal for most patients given the large number needed to treat.

Impact of Physician-Patient Language Concordance on Patient Outcomes and Adherence to Clinical Chest Pain Recommendations.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to evaluate if there is an association between patient-physician language concordance and adverse patient outcomes or physician adherence to clinical recommendations for emergency department (ED) patients with chest pain. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational study of adult ED chest pain encounters with a troponin order from May 2016 to September 2017 across 15 community EDs. Outcomes were 30-day acute myocardial infarction or all-cause mortality, hospital admission/observation, or noninvasive cardiac testing. To assess patient outcomes, we used the overall cohort. To assess adherence to clinical recommendations, we used a subgroup of patients with a low-risk HEART score. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to compare the odds of the outcomes between language concordant and discordant patient-physician pairs, controlling for patient characteristics. RESULTS: Overall, 52,014 ED encounters were included (10,791 low-risk HEART encounters). Of those 6,452 (12.4%) encounters were language discordant and 1.7% in each group had an adverse outcome. Adjusted models demonstrated no increased risk for language discordant ED encounters when comparing adverse outcomes (odds ratio [OR] = 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.6 to 1.5) for all patients or recommended care (OR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.2) for low-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: No associations were found between patient-physician language concordance and outcomes or physician adherence to clinical recommendations for ED patients with chest pain. Accessible and effective interpretation services, combined with a decision support tool with standard clinical recommendations, may have contributed to equitable care.

Not all HEART scores are created equal: identifying "low-risk" patients at higher risk.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify sub-groups of "low-risk" HEART score patients (history, ECG, age, risk factors, and troponin) at elevated risk of acute myocardial infarction or death within 30 days. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of prospective emergency department (ED) encounters for suspected acute coronary syndrome in a large health system with low-risk HEART scores (0-5 points). Logistic regression using the 5 components of the HEART score analyzed the increase risk attributable to points from each of the 5 score components. RESULTS: Of 30,971 encounters among 28,992 unique patients, 135 (0.44%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.37-0.51) experienced acute myocardial infarction or death. Risk increased for each component of the HEART score from 0 to 1 to 2 points (history, 0.4% to 0.5% to 0.6%; ECG, 0.3% to 0.7% to 0.7%; age, 0.2% to 0.3% to 0.7%; risk factors, 0.1% to 0.4% to 0.8%), except troponin, which had the highest risk with 1 point (troponin, 0.4% to 2.7% to 0.9%). Odds ratios from our regression, which adjusts for other components, showed a similar pattern (from 1 vs 0 and 2 vs 0 points, respectively: history, 1.0 and 1.8; ECG, 2.2 and 3.5; age, 1.2 and 2.1; risk factors, 2.4 and 4.2; and troponin, 6.0 and 3.6). CONCLUSION: Among "low-risk" suspected acute coronary syndrome encounters, increasing points within each of the 5 categories demonstrated small increases in risk of death or acute myocardial infarction, with the troponin and ECG components representing the largest risk increases.

Raw Garlic Consumption and Risk of Liver Cancer: A Population-Based Case-Control Study in Eastern China.

Although the major risk factors for liver cancer have been established, preventive factors for liver cancer have not been fully explored. We evaluated the association between raw garlic consumption and liver cancer in a large population-based case-control study in Eastern China. The study was conducted in Jiangsu, China, from 2003 to 2010. A total of 2011 incident liver cancer cases and 7933 randomly selected population-controls were interviewed. Epidemiological data including raw garlic intake and other exposures were collected, and serum markers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection were assayed. Overall, eating raw garlic twice or more per week was inversely associated with liver cancer, with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62-0.96) compared to those ingesting no raw garlic or less than twice per week. In stratified analyses, high intake of raw garlic was inversely associated with liver cancer among Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) negative individuals, frequent alcohol drinkers, those having history of eating mold-contaminated food or drinking raw water, and those without family history of liver cancer. Marginal interactions on an additive scale were observed between low raw garlic intake and HBsAg positivity (attributable proportion due to interaction (AP) = 0.31, 95% CI: -0.01-0.62) and heavy alcohol drinking (AP = 0.28, 95% CI: 0.00-0.57). Raw garlic consumption is inversely associated with liver cancer. Such an association shed some light on the potential etiologic role of garlic intake on liver cancer, which in turn might provide a possible dietary intervention to reduce liver cancer in Chinese population.

Do changes in health reveal the possibility of undiagnosed pancreatic cancer? Development of a risk-prediction model based on healthcare claims data.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Early detection methods for pancreatic cancer are lacking. We aimed to develop a prediction model for pancreatic cancer based on changes in health captured by healthcare claims data. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study on 29,646 Medicare-enrolled patients aged 68 years and above with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) reported to the Surveillance Epidemiology an End Results (SEER) tumor registries program in 2004-2011 and 88,938 age and sex-matched controls. We developed a prediction model using multivariable logistic regression on Medicare claims for 16 risk factors and pre-diagnostic symptoms of PDAC present within 15 months prior to PDAC diagnosis. Claims within 3 months of PDAC diagnosis were excluded in sensitivity analyses. We evaluated the discriminatory power of the model with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and performed cross-validation by bootstrapping. RESULTS: The prediction model on all cases and controls reached AUC of 0.68. Excluding the final 3 months of claims lowered the AUC to 0.58. Among new-onset diabetes patients, the prediction model reached AUC of 0.73, which decreased to 0.63 when claims from the final 3 months were excluded. Performance measures of the prediction models was confirmed by internal validation using the bootstrap method. CONCLUSION: Models based on healthcare claims for clinical risk factors, symptoms and signs of pancreatic cancer are limited in classifying those who go on to diagnosis of pancreatic cancer and those who do not, especially when excluding claims that immediately precede the diagnosis of PDAC.