Machine learning for detection of heterogeneous effects of Medicaid coverage on depression.

In 2008, Oregon expanded its Medicaid program using a lottery, creating a rare opportunity to study the effects of Medicaid coverage using a randomized controlled design (Oregon Health Insurance Experiment). Analysis showed that Medicaid coverage lowered the risk of depression. However, this effect may vary between individuals, and the identification of individuals likely to benefit the most has the potential to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the Medicaid program. By applying the machine learning causal forest to data from this experiment, we found substantial heterogeneity in the effect of Medicaid coverage on depression; individuals with high predicted benefit were older and had more physical or mental health conditions at baseline. Expanding coverage to individuals with high predicted benefit generated greater reduction in depression prevalence than expanding to all eligible individuals (21.5 vs 8.8 percentage-point reduction; adjusted difference = +12.7 [95% CI, +4.6 to +20.8]; P = 0.003), at substantially lower cost per case prevented ($16 627 vs $36 048; adjusted difference = -$18 598 [95% CI, -156 953 to -3120]; P = 0.04). Medicaid coverage reduces depression substantially more in a subset of the population than others, in ways that are predictable in advance. Targeting coverage on those most likely to benefit could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of insurance expansion. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.

Investing in Long-Term Health.

This JAMA Forum discusses treatment and health care delivery, innovative use of risk analytics, and spending and coverage priorities in the US health insurance system.

A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19.

Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.

How Much Safety Did the Social Safety Net Provide During the COVID-19 Pandemic?

This JAMA Forum discusses the successes, failures, and lessons learned regarding the performance of US social safety-net programs during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Home Visits With A Registered Nurse Did Not Affect Prenatal Care In A Low-Income Pregnant Population.

There is an urgent need to improve maternal and neonatal health outcomes and decrease their racial disparities in the US. Prenatal nurse home visiting programs could help achieve this by increasing the use and quality of prenatal care and facilitating healthy behaviors during pregnancy. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 5,670 Medicaid-eligible pregnant people in South Carolina to evaluate how a nurse home visiting program affected prenatal health care and health outcomes. We compared outcomes between the treatment and control groups and found little evidence of statistically significant differences in the intensity of prenatal care use, receipt of guideline-based prenatal care services, other health care use, or gestational weight gain. Nor did we find treatment effects in subgroup analyses of socially vulnerable participants (46.9 percent of the sample) or non-Hispanic Black participants (52.0 percent of the sample). Compared with the broader Medicaid population, our trial participants had more health and social risk factors, more engagement with prenatal care, and similar pregnancy outcomes. Delivering intensive nurse home visiting programs to the general Medicaid population might not be an efficient method to improve prenatal care for those who need the most support during pregnancy.

A Different Framework to Achieve Universal Coverage in the US.

This JAMA Forum discusses alternative ways to achieve universal coverage in the US such as administrative simplification in the Affordable Care Act plans to increase enrollment, having a basic policy that would be available to everyone, and options for supplemental coverage.

Tying Innovation to Evaluation and Accountability in Programs to Address Intersecting Health and Social Needs.

This JAMA Forum advocates for rigorous assessment of the effectiveness of programs and initiatives addressing health-related social needs to improve health outcomes.

Out of the Woodwork: Enrollment Spillovers in the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment.

We analyze the impact of expanded adult Medicaid eligibility on the enrollment of already-eligible children. We analyze the 2008 Oregon Medicaid lottery, in which some low-income uninsured adults were randomly selected to be allowed to apply for Medicaid. Children in these households were eligible for Medicaid irrespective of the lottery outcome. We estimate statistically significant but transitory impacts of adult lottery selection on child Medicaid enrollment: at three months after the lottery, for every 9 adults who enrolled in Medicaid due to winning the lottery, one additional child also enrolled. Our results shed light on the existence, magnitude, and nature of so-called "woodwork effects".

Effect of an Intensive Nurse Home Visiting Program on Adverse Birth Outcomes in a Medicaid-Eligible Population: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Improving birth outcomes for low-income mothers is a public health priority. Intensive nurse home visiting has been proposed as an intervention to improve these outcomes. Objective: To determine the effect of an intensive nurse home visiting program on a composite outcome of preterm birth, low birth weight, small for gestational age, or perinatal mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a randomized clinical trial that included 5670 Medicaid-eligible, nulliparous pregnant individuals at less than 28 weeks' gestation, enrolled between April 1, 2016, and March 17, 2020, with follow-up through February 2021. Interventions: Participants were randomized 2:1 to Nurse Family Partnership program (n = 3806) or control (n = 1864). The program is an established model of nurse home visiting; regular visits begin prenatally and continue through 2 postnatal years. Nurses provide education, assessments, and goal-setting related to prenatal health, child health and development, and maternal life course. The control group received usual care services and a list of community resources. Neither staff nor participants were blinded to intervention group. Main Outcomes and Measures: There were 3 primary outcomes. This article reports on a composite of adverse birth outcomes: preterm birth, low birth weight, small for gestational age, or perinatal mortality based on vital records, Medicaid claims, and hospital discharge records through February 2021. The other primary outcomes of interbirth intervals of less than 21 months and major injury or concern for abuse or neglect in the child's first 24 months have not yet completed measurement. There were 54 secondary outcomes; those related to maternal and newborn health that have completed measurement included all elements of the composite plus birth weight, gestational length, large for gestational age, extremely preterm, very low birth weight, overnight neonatal intensive care unit admission, severe maternal morbidity, and cesarean delivery. Results: Among 5670 participants enrolled, 4966 (3319 intervention; 1647 control) were analyzed for the primary maternal and neonatal health outcome (median age, 21 years [1.2% non-Hispanic Asian, Indigenous, or Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander; 5.7% Hispanic; 55.2% non-Hispanic Black; 34.8% non-Hispanic White; and 3.0% more than 1 race reported [non-Hispanic]). The incidence of the composite adverse birth outcome was 26.9% in the intervention group and 26.1% in the control group (adjusted between-group difference, 0.5% [95% CI, -2.1% to 3.1%]). Outcomes for the intervention group were not significantly better for any of the maternal and newborn health primary or secondary outcomes in the overall sample or in either of the prespecified subgroups. Conclusions and Relevance: In this South Carolina-based trial of Medicaid-eligible pregnant individuals, assignment to participate in an intensive nurse home visiting program did not significantly reduce the incidence of a composite of adverse birth outcomes. Evaluation of the overall effectiveness of this program is incomplete, pending assessment of early childhood and birth spacing outcomes. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03360539.

Medicaid, Health, and the Moderating Role of Neighborhood Characteristics.

Neighborhood characteristics may moderate the effects of Medicaid coverage on health outcomes. Identifying this interplay can inform the design, targeting, and implementation of health policy. We combine data from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, which randomized access to Medicaid, with rich new data on multiple domains of neighborhood characteristics to assess the interaction between the local environment and the effect of insurance on health. Overall, we do not find that neighborhood characteristics substantially affect the relationship between gaining insurance and health outcomes, suggesting that Medicaid expansions are similarly effective across neighborhoods. This analysis highlights the complex relationship between health insurance coverage, neighborhood characteristics, and health.

Health And Economic Outcomes Up To Three Years After A Workplace Wellness Program: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Workplace wellness programs aim to improve employee health and lower health care spending. Recent randomized studies have found modest short-run effects on health behaviors, but longer-run effects remain poorly understood. We analyzed a clustered randomized trial of a workplace wellness program implemented at a large multisite US employer. Twenty-five randomly selected treatment worksites received the program, with five of the worksites added at the trial's midpoint, and 135 randomly selected control worksites did not. The program included modules on nutrition, physical activity, and stress reduction, implemented by registered dietitians. The effects of program availability and participation were assessed. At the end of three years, employees at the treatment worksites had better self-reported health behaviors, including a higher rate of actively managing their weight. No significant differences were found in self-reported health; clinical markers of health; health care spending or use; or absenteeism, tenure, or job performance. Improvements in health behaviors after three years were similar to those at eighteen months, but the longer follow-up did not yield detectable improvements in clinical, economic, or employment outcomes.

Protocol for a randomized controlled trial evaluating the impact of the Nurse-Family Partnership's home visiting program in South Carolina on maternal and child health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Policy-makers are increasingly seeking rigorous evidence on the impact of programs that go beyond typical health care settings to improve outcomes for low-income families during the critical period around the transition to parenthood and through early childhood. METHODS: This study is a randomized controlled trial evaluating the impact of the Nurse-Family Partnership's expansion in South Carolina. The scientific trial was made possible by a "Pay for Success" program embedded within a 1915(b) Waiver from Medicaid secured by the South Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. This protocol describes study procedures and defines primary and secondary health-related outcomes that can be observed during the intervention period (including pregnancy through the child's first 2 years of life). Primary study outcomes include (1) a composite indicator for adverse birth outcomes including being born small for gestational age, low birth weight (less than 2500 g), preterm birth (less than 37 weeks' gestation), or perinatal mortality (fetal death at or after 20 weeks of gestation or mortality in the first 7 days of life), (2) a composite outcome indicating health care utilization or mortality associated with major injury or concern for abuse or neglect occurring during the child's first 24 months of life, and (3) an indicator for an inter-birth interval of < 21 months. Secondary outcomes are defined similarly in three domains: (1) improving pregnancy and birth outcomes, (2) improving child health and development, and (3) altering the maternal life course through changes in family planning. DISCUSSION: Evidence from this trial on the impact of home visiting services delivered at scale as part of a Medicaid benefit can provide policy-makers and stakeholders with crucial information about the effectiveness of home visiting programs in improving health and well-being for low-income mothers and children and about novel financing mechanisms for cross-silo interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered prospectively on the American Economic Association Trial Registry (the primary registry for academic economists doing policy trials) on 16 February 2016 ( AEARCTR-0001039 ). ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03360539 . Registered on 28 November 2017.