Explainability of the COVID-19 epidemiological model with nonnegative tensor factorization.

The world is witnessing the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Each country responded to contain the spread of the virus in the early stages through diverse response measures. Interpreting these responses and their patterns globally is essential to inform future responses to COVID-19 variants and future pandemics. A stochastic epidemiological model (SEM) is a well-established mathematical tool that helps to analyse the spread of infectious diseases through communities and the effects of various response measures. However, interpreting the outcome of these models is complex and often requires manual effort. In this paper, we propose a novel method to provide the explainability of an epidemiological model. We represent the output of SEM as a tensor model. We then apply nonnegative tensor factorization (NTF) to identify patterns of global response behaviours of countries and cluster the countries based on these patterns. We interpret the patterns and clusters to understand the global response behaviour of countries in the early stages of the pandemic. Our experimental results demonstrate the advantage of clustering using NTF and provide useful insights into the characteristics of country clusters.

Deep learning based topic and sentiment analysis: COVID19 information seeking on social media.

Social media platforms have become a common place for information exchange among their users. People leave traces of their emotions via text expressions. A systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of social media data across time and space can give insights into local outbreaks, mental health, and social issues. Such timely insights can help in developing strategies and resources with an appropriate and efficient response. This study analysed a large Spatio-temporal tweet dataset of the Australian sphere related to COVID19. The methodology included a volume analysis, topic modelling, sentiment detection, and semantic brand score to obtain an insight into the COVID19 pandemic outbreak and public discussion in different states and cities of Australia over time. The obtained insights are compared with independently observed phenomena such as government-reported instances.

An observational analysis of the trope "A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant" and other cut-and-paste statistical methods.

Appropriate descriptions of statistical methods are essential for evaluating research quality and reproducibility. Despite continued efforts to improve reporting in publications, inadequate descriptions of statistical methods persist. At times, reading statistical methods sections can conjure feelings of dèjá vu, with content resembling cut-and-pasted or "boilerplate text" from already published work. Instances of boilerplate text suggest a mechanistic approach to statistical analysis, where the same default methods are being used and described using standardized text. To investigate the extent of this practice, we analyzed text extracted from published statistical methods sections from PLOS ONE and the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR). Topic modeling was applied to analyze data from 111,731 papers published in PLOS ONE and 9,523 studies registered with the ANZCTR. PLOS ONE topics emphasized definitions of statistical significance, software and descriptive statistics. One in three PLOS ONE papers contained at least 1 sentence that was a direct copy from another paper. 12,675 papers (11%) closely matched to the sentence "a p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant". Common topics across ANZCTR studies differentiated between study designs and analysis methods, with matching text found in approximately 3% of sections. Our findings quantify a serious problem affecting the reporting of statistical methods and shed light on perceptions about the communication of statistics as part of the scientific process. Results further emphasize the importance of rigorous statistical review to ensure that adequate descriptions of methods are prioritized over relatively minor details such as p-values and software when reporting research outcomes.

Progressive domain adaptation for detecting hate speech on social media with small training set and its application to COVID-19 concerned posts.

In this world of information and experience era, microblogging sites have been commonly used to express people feelings including fear, panic, hate and abuse. Monitoring and control of abuse on social media, especially during pandemics such as COVID-19, can help in keeping the public sentiment and morale positive. Developing the fear and hate detection methods based on machine learning requires labelled data. However, obtaining the labelled data in suddenly changed circumstances as a pandemic is expensive and acquiring them in a short time is impractical. Related labelled hate data from other domains or previous incidents may be available. However, the predictive accuracy of these hate detection models decreases significantly if the data distribution of the target domain, where the prediction will be applied, is different. To address this problem, we propose a novel concept of unsupervised progressive domain adaptation based on a deep-learning language model generated through multiple text datasets. We showcase the efficacy of the proposed method in hate speech and fear detection on the tweets collection during COVID-19 where the labelled information is unavailable.

Identifying Covid-19 misinformation tweets and learning their spatio-temporal topic dynamics using Nonnegative Coupled Matrix Tensor Factorization.

Social media platforms like Twitter have become an easy portal for billions of people to connect and exchange their thoughts. Unfortunately, people commonly use these platforms to share misinformation which can influence other people adversely. The spread of misinformation is unavoidable in an extraordinary situation like Covid-19, and the consequences can be dreadful. This paper proposes a two-step ranking-based misinformation detection (RMiD) technique. Firstly, a novel ranking-based approach leveraging the scalable information retrieval infrastructure is applied to detect misinformation from a huge collection of unlabelled tweets based on a related but very small labelled misinformation data set. Secondly, the identified misinformation tweets are represented as a coupled matrix tensor model and Nonnegative Coupled Matrix Tensor Factorization is applied to learn their spatio-temporal topic dynamics. The experimental analysis shows that RMiD is capable of detecting misinformation with better coverage and less noise in comparison with existing techniques. Moreover, the coupled matrix tensor representation has improved the quality of topics discovered from unlabelled data up to 4% by leveraging the semantic similarity of terms in labelled data. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13278-021-00767-7.