Rock Surface Strain In Situ Monitoring Affected by Temperature Changes at the Pozáry Field Lab (Czechia).

The evaluation of strain in rock masses is crucial information for slope stability studies. For this purpose, a monitoring system for analyzing surface strain using resistivity strain gauges has been tested. Strain is a function of stress, and it is known that stress affects the mechanical properties of geomaterials and can lead to the destabilization of rock slopes. However, stress is difficult to measure in situ. In industrial practice, resistivity strain gauges are used for strain measurement, allowing even small strain changes to be recorded. This setting of dataloggers is usually expensive and there is no accounting for the influence of exogenous factors. Here, the aim of applying resistivity strain gauges in different configurations to measure surface strain in natural conditions, and to determine how the results are affected by factors such as temperature and incoming solar radiation, has been pursued. Subsequently, these factors were mathematically estimated, and a data processing system was created to process the results of each configuration. Finally, the new strategy was evaluated to measure in situ strain by estimating the effect of temperature. The approach highlighted high theoretical accuracy, hence the ability to detect strain variations in field conditions. Therefore, by adjusting for the influence of temperature, it is potentially possible to measure the deformation trend more accurately, while maintaining a lower cost for the sensors.

Anatomical growth response of Fagus sylvatica L. to landslide movements.

Determining the age of landslide events is crucial for determining landslide risk, triggers, and also for predicting future landslide occurrence. Currently, the most accurate method for dating historical landslide events is dendrogeomorphic analysis. Unfortunately, the standard use of macroscopic growth responses of damaged trees for dating landslide activity suffers from many shortcomings. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze in detail the growth response of trees to landslide movements at the anatomical level, a completely groundbreaking methodological approach. Ten specimens of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) were analyzed at two sampling heights, growing in two morphologically contrasting zones of the landslide area. Detailed anatomical analysis was focused on changes in morphometric parameters of the vessels and in the number of radial rays. The period (2008-2012) with the occurrence of the largest landslide movement (2010) recorded by long-term monitoring was analyzed. The results obtained revealed different anatomical responses in trees growing in different morphological zones of landslide. The tree responses on the ridge corresponded to the manifestations of tension wood formation, which corresponded to the stem tilting due to the landslide block movement. In the case of the trees in the trenches, root damage due to the subsidence of the landslide block blocked the flux of phytohormones, and their accumulation caused a significant reduction in the parameters of vessels and an increase in the number of rays. The study also includes recommendations in the future application of anatomical analyses in landslide research resulting from the obtained results. Thus, the obtained findings will improve the acquisition of chronological data for the purpose of landslide risk assessment.

Adverse weather conditions for UK wheat production under climate change.

Winter wheat is an important crop in the UK, suited to the typical weather conditions in the current climate. In a changing climate the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events, which are often localised, are considered a major threat to wheat production. In the present study we assessed a range of adverse weather conditions, which can significantly affect yield, under current and future climates based on adverse weather indices. We analysed changes in the frequency, magnitude and spatial patterns of 10 adverse weather indices, at 25 sites across the UK, using climate scenarios from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production, with most adverse weather indicators reducing in magnitude by the mid-21st century. Hotter and drier summers would improve sowing and harvesting conditions and reduce the risk of lodging. The probability of late frosts and heat stress during reproductive and grain filling periods would likely remain small in 2050. Wetter winter and spring could cause issues with waterlogging. The severity of drought stress during reproduction would generally be lower in 2050, however localised differences suggest it is important to examine drought at a small spatial scale. Prolonged water stress does not increase considerably in the UK, as may be expected in other parts of Europe. Climate projections based on the CMIP5 ensemble reveal considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of adverse weather conditions including waterlogging, drought and water stress. The variation in adverse weather conditions due to GCMs was generally greater than between emissions scenarios. Accordingly, CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of GCMs may not provide.

Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas.

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world's entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.

Decline in climate resilience of European wheat.

Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers' fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity "deserts" were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation.

Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom.

The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens causing losses to UK potato harvests estimated at £50 m/ year. Implications of climate change on their future pest status have not been fully considered. Here, we report growth of female G. pallida and G. rostochiensis over the range 15 to 25°C. Females per plant and their fecundity declined progressively with temperatures above 17.5°C for G. pallida, whilst females per plant were optimal between 17.5 and 22.5°C for G. rostochiensis. Relative reproductive success with temperature was confirmed on two potato cultivars infected with either species at 15, 22.5 and 25°C. The reduced reproductive success of G. pallida at 22.5°C relative to 15°C was also recorded for a further seven host cultivars studied. The differences in optimal temperatures for reproductive success may relate to known differences in the altitude of their regions of origin in the Andes. Exposure of G. pallida to a diurnal temperature stress for one week during female growth significantly suppressed subsequent growth for one week at 17.5°C but had no effect on G. rostochiensis. However, after two weeks of recovery, female size was not significantly different from that for the control treatment. Future soil temperatures were simulated for medium- and high-emission scenarios and combined with nematode growth data to project future implications of climate change for the two species. Increased soil temperatures associated with climate change may reduce the pest status of G. pallida but benefit G. rostochiensis especially in the southern United Kingdom. We conclude that plant breeders may be able to exploit the thermal limits of G. pallida by developing potato cultivars able to grow under future warm summer conditions. Existing widely deployed resistance to G. rostochiensis is an important characteristic to retain for new potato cultivars.