Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability.

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for-particularly small-populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Variation and correlation in the timing of breeding of North Atlantic seabirds across multiple scales.

Timing of breeding, an important driver of fitness in many populations, is widely studied in the context of global change, yet despite considerable efforts to identify environmental drivers of seabird nesting phenology, for most populations we lack evidence of strong drivers. Here we adopt an alternative approach, examining the degree to which different populations positively covary in their annual phenology to infer whether phenological responses to environmental drivers are likely to be (a) shared across species at a range of spatial scales, (b) shared across populations of a species or (c) idiosyncratic to populations. We combined 51 long-term datasets on breeding phenology spanning 50 years from nine seabird species across 29 North Atlantic sites and examined the extent to which different populations share early versus late breeding seasons depending on a hierarchy of spatial scales comprising breeding site, small-scale region, large-scale region and the whole North Atlantic. In about a third of cases, we found laying dates of populations of different species sharing the same breeding site or small-scale breeding region were positively correlated, which is consistent with the hypothesis that they share phenological responses to the same environmental conditions. In comparison, we found no evidence for positive phenological covariation among populations across species aggregated at larger spatial scales. In general, we found little evidence for positive phenological covariation between populations of a single species, and in many instances the inter-year variation specific to a population was substantial, consistent with each population responding idiosyncratically to local environmental conditions. Black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla was the exception, with populations exhibiting positive covariation in laying dates that decayed with the distance between breeding sites, suggesting that populations may be responding to a similar driver. Our approach sheds light on the potential factors that may drive phenology in our study species, thus furthering our understanding of the scales at which different seabirds interact with interannual variation in their environment. We also identify additional systems and phenological questions to which our inferential approach could be applied.

Diverging phenological responses of Arctic seabirds to an earlier spring.

The timing of annual events such as reproduction is a critical component of how free-living organisms respond to ongoing climate change. This may be especially true in the Arctic, which is disproportionally impacted by climate warming. Here, we show that Arctic seabirds responded to climate change by moving the start of their reproduction earlier, coincident with an advancing onset of spring and that their response is phylogenetically and spatially structured. The phylogenetic signal is likely driven by seabird foraging behavior. Surface-feeding species advanced their reproduction in the last 35 years while diving species showed remarkably stable breeding timing. The earlier reproduction for Arctic surface-feeding birds was significant in the Pacific only, where spring advancement was most pronounced. In both the Atlantic and Pacific, seabirds with a long breeding season showed a greater response to the advancement of spring than seabirds with a short breeding season. Our results emphasize that spatial variation, phylogeny, and life history are important considerations in seabird phenological response to climate change and highlight the key role played by the species' foraging behavior.

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.

Modelled drift patterns of fish larvae link coastal morphology to seabird colony distribution.

Colonial breeding is an evolutionary puzzle, as the benefits of breeding in high densities are still not fully explained. Although the dynamics of existing colonies are increasingly understood, few studies have addressed the initial formation of colonies, and empirical tests are rare. Using a high-resolution larval drift model, we here document that the distribution of seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast can be explained by variations in the availability and predictability of fish larvae. The modelled variability in concentration of fish larvae is, in turn, predicted by the topography of the continental shelf and coastline. The advection of fish larvae along the coast translates small-scale topographic characteristics into a macroecological pattern, viz. the spatial distribution of top-predator breeding sites. Our findings provide empirical corroboration of the hypothesis that seabird colonies are founded in locations that minimize travel distances between breeding and foraging locations, thereby enabling optimal foraging by central-place foragers.

Arctic plant responses to changing abiotic factors in northern Alaska.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Understanding the relationship between plants and changing abiotic factors is necessary to document and anticipate the impacts of climate change. METHODS: We used data from long-term research sites at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, to investigate trends in abiotic factors (snow melt and freeze-up dates, air and soil temperature, thaw depth, and soil moisture) and their relationships with plant traits (inflorescence height, leaf length, reproductive effort, and reproductive phenology) over time. KEY RESULTS: Several abiotic factors, including increasing air and soil temperatures, earlier snowmelt, delayed freeze-up, drier soils, and increasing thaw depths, showed nonsignificant tendencies over time that were consistent with the regional warming pattern observed in the Barrow area. Over the same period, plants showed consistent, although typically nonsignificant tendencies toward increasing inflorescence heights and reproductive efforts. Air and soil temperatures, measured as degree days, were consistently correlated with plant growth and reproductive effort. Reproductive effort was best predicted using abiotic conditions from the previous year. We also found that varying the base temperature used to calculate degree days changed the number of significant relationships between temperature and the trait: in general, reproductive phenologies in colder sites were better predicted using lower base temperatures, but the opposite held for those in warmer sites. CONCLUSIONS: Plant response to changing abiotic factors is complex and varies by species, site, and trait; however, for six plant species, we have strong evidence that climate change will cause significant shifts in their growth and reproductive effort as the region continues to warm.

Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation.

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long-term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes.

The stress hormone corticosterone in a marine top predator reflects short-term changes in food availability.

In many seabird studies, single annual proxies of prey abundance have been used to explain variability in breeding performance, but much more important is probably the timing of prey availability relative to the breeding season when energy demand is at a maximum. Until now, intraseasonal variation in prey availability has been difficult to quantify in seabirds. Using a state-of-the-art ocean drift model of larval cod Gadus morhua, an important constituent of the diet of common guillemots Uria aalge in the southwestern Barents Sea, we were able to show clear, short-term correlations between food availability and measurements of the stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in parental guillemots over a 3-year period (2009-2011). The model allowed the extraction of abundance and size of cod larvae with very high spatial (4 km) and temporal resolutions (1 day) and showed that cod larvae from adjacent northern spawning grounds in Norway were always available near the guillemot breeding colony while those from more distant southerly spawning grounds were less frequent, but larger. The latter arrived in waves whose magnitude and timing, and thus overlap with the guillemot breeding season, varied between years. CORT levels in adult guillemots were lower in birds caught after a week with high frequencies of southern cod larvae. This pattern was restricted to the two years (2009 and 2010) in which southern larvae arrived before the end of the guillemot breeding season. Any such pattern was masked in 2011 by already exceptionally high numbers of cod larvae in the region throughout chick-rearing period. The findings suggest that CORT levels in breeding birds increase when the arrival of southern sizable larvae does not match the period of peak energy requirements during breeding.

Relationships between persistent organic pollutants and circulating immunoglobulin-Y in black-legged kittiwakes and Atlantic puffins.

Have Although persistent organic pollutants (POPs) may affect the immune system, few field studies actually examined this effect. There are indications that POP exert effects on the immune system; however, in the Arctic ecosystem data are scarce. The aim of this study was to examine immune functions in two medium trophic-positioned seabirds, the black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica). Overall POP concentrations were higher in kittiwakes than puffins and males had significantly higher concentrations than females. Mean concentrations of total polychlorinated biphenyls (ΣPCB9) were 4700 ± 200 and 9600 ± 1400 ng/g lipid weight and 2800 ± 180 and 3900 ± 200 ng/g lipid weight in female and male kittiwake and puffin blood, respectively. Levels of immunoglobulin-Y (IgY) in blood of kittiwakes were not markedly affected by concentrations of POP. Similarly, the primary IgY response to tetanus toxoid was not affected by POP concentrations in a subsample of immunized kittiwakes. In puffins, there were significant correlations between the IgY-response and some of the POPs, but with low explanatory values. These results suggest that POPs concentrations were lower than, or just at the threshold level for effects of the proposed IgY biomarker. It is also conceivable that the IgY levels are not a suitable endpoint for evaluating perturbation of the immune system in free-living seabirds.

Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

Virological and serological surveillance for type A influenza in the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla).

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in gulls is only partially known. The role of the world's most numerous gull species, the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), as a potential AIV reservoir species has been unclear. The prevalence of AIV and humoral response against AIV were therefore studied in a colony of apparently healthy black-legged kittiwakes breeding in a nesting cliff in the South West Barents Region of Norway (70°22' N, 31°10' E), in 2008 and 2009. RESULTS: AIVs were detected from the oropharynx and cloaca in low amounts, with prevalences of 15% and 5%, in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Direct, partial sequencing of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene revealed that the H4 subtype was present. In 2009, antibodies to influenza A virus were detected in sera from 57 of 80 adult birds. In contrast, none of the three-week-old chicks (n = 18) tested seropositive. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays demonstrated that the adult kittiwakes primarily had antibodies specific to the gull-associated H13 and H16 subtypes, with antibodies to H16 being most common. CONCLUSIONS: These results support that the highly pelagic black-legged kittiwake is a reservoir of AIV. The serological findings suggest that H16 might be the main AIV subtype in the black-legged kittiwake. Further studies are needed to understand the ecology of AIV in the black-legged kittiwake and in gulls in general.

Levels and temporal trends (1983-2003) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers and hexabromocyclododecanes in seabird eggs from north Norway.

The present study assessed temporal trends (1983-2003) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) in eggs of herring gulls (Larus argentatus), Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica), and black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in North Norway. Generally, PBDE concentrations increased between 1983 and 1993 and then leveled out, although species-specific trends were reported. Levels of alpha-HBCD increased in all species throughout the 20-year period. Levels of nona-BDEs and BDE 209 ranged from nondetectable to parts per billion. Nevertheless, highly variable procedural blanks were reported for the nona-BDEs and BDE 209, which clearly illustrates the importance of including blanks repeatedly during determination of these compounds.

Prevalence and diversity of Lyme borreliosis bacteria in marine birds.

A potential role of seabirds in spreading Lyme disease (LB) spirochetes over large spatial scales was suggested more than 10 years ago when Borrelia garinii was observed in marine birds of both hemispheres. Since then, there have been few studies examining the diversity of Borrelia spp. circulating in seabirds, or the potential interaction between terrestrial and marine disease cycles. To explore these aspects, we tested 402 Ixodes uriae ticks collected from five colonial seabird species by amplification of the flaB gene. Both the average prevalence (26.0%+/-3.9) and diversity of LB spirochetes was high. Phylogenetic analyses grouped marine isolates in two main clades: one associated with B. garinii and another with B. lusitaniae, a genospecies typically associated with lizards. One sequence also clustered most closely with B. burgdorferi sensu stricto. Prevalence in ticks varied both among seabird species within colonies and among colonies. However, there was no clear association between different Borrelia isolates and a given seabird host species. Our findings indicate that LB spirochetes circulating in the marine system are more diverse than previously described and support the hypothesis that seabirds may be an important component in the global epidemiology and evolution of Lyme disease. Future work should help determine the extent to which isolates are shared between marine and terrestrial systems.