Clinical and biochemical responses to treatment of uncomplicated severe acute malnutrition: a multicenter observational cohort from the OptiDiag study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) can be diagnosed using weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and/or mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC). Although some favor using MUAC alone, valuing its presumed ability to identify children at greatest need for nutritional care, the functional severity and physiological responses to treatment in children with varying deficits in WHZ and MUAC remain inadequately characterized. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare clinical and biochemical responses to treatment in children with 1) both low MUAC and low WHZ, 2) low MUAC-only, and 3) low WHZ-only. METHODS: A multicenter, observational cohort study was conducted in children aged 6-59 mo with nonedematous, uncomplicated SAM in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, and Liberia. Anthropometric measurements and critical indicators were collected 3 times during treatment; metrics included clinical status, nutritional status, viability, and serum leptin, a biomarker of mortality risk in SAM. RESULTS: Children with combined MUAC and WHZ deficits had greater increases in leptin levels during treatment than those with low MUAC alone, showing a 34.4% greater increase on the second visit (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.6%, 43.6%; P = 0.02) and a 34.3% greater increase on the third visit (95% CI: 13.2%, 50.3%; P = 0.01). Similarly, weight gain velocity was higher by 1.56 g/kg/d in the combined deficit group (95% CI: 0.38, 2.75; P = 0.03) compared with children with low MUAC-only. Children with combined deficits had higher rates of iron deficiency and wasting while those with low WHZ alone and combined deficits had higher rates of tachypnea and pneumonia during treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Given the comparable treatment responses of children with low WHZ alone and those with low MUAC alone, and the greater vulnerability at admission and during treatment in those with combined deficits, our findings support retaining WHZ as an independent diagnostic and admission criterion of SAM, alongside MUAC. This trial was registered at www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/study/NCT03400930 as NCT03400930.

Evaluation of Ebola virus disease surveillance system capability to promptly detect a new outbreak in Liberia.

INTRODUCTION: Liberia was heavily affected by the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak. With substantial investments in interventions to combat future outbreaks, it is hoped that Liberia is well prepared for a new incursion. We assessed the performance of the current EVD surveillance system in Liberia, focusing on its ability to promptly detect a new EVD outbreak. METHODS: We integrated WHO and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for public health surveillance system evaluation and used standardised indicators to measure system performance. We conducted 23 key informant interviews, 150 health facility assessment surveys and a standardised patient (SP) study (19 visits) from January 2020 to January 2021. Data were summarised and a gap analysis conducted. RESULTS: We found basic competencies of case detection and reporting necessary for a functional surveillance system were in place. At the higher (national, county and district) levels, we found performance gaps in 2 of 6 indicators relating to surveillance system structure, 3 of 14 indicators related to core functions, 1 of 5 quality indicators and 2 of 8 indicators related to support functions. The health facility assessment found performance gaps in 9 of 10 indicators related to core functions, 5 of 6 indicators related to support functions and 3 of 7 indicators related to quality. The SP simulations revealed large gaps between expected and actual practice in managing a patient warranting investigation for EVD. Major challenges affecting the system's operations across all levels included limited access to resources to support surveillance activities, persistent stock out of sample collection materials and attrition of trained staff. CONCLUSION: The EVD surveillance system in Liberia may fail to promptly detect a new EVD outbreak. Specific improvements are required, and regular evaluations recommended. SP studies could be crucial in evaluating surveillance systems for rarely occurring diseases that are important to detect early.

Health service utilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020: a multicountry empirical assessment with a focus on maternal, newborn and child health services.

INTRODUCTION: There are concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the continuation of essential health services in sub-Saharan Africa. Through the Countdown to 2030 for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health country collaborations, analysts from country and global public health institutions and ministries of health assessed the trends in selected services for maternal, newborn and child health, general service utilisation. METHODS: Monthly routine health facility data by district for the period 2017-2020 were compiled by 12 country teams and adjusted after extensive quality assessments. Mixed effects linear regressions were used to estimate the size of any change in service utilisation for each month from March to December 2020 and for the whole COVID-19 period in 2020. RESULTS: The completeness of reporting of health facilities was high in 2020 (median of 12 countries, 96% national and 91% of districts ≥90%), higher than in the preceding years and extreme outliers were few. The country median reduction in utilisation of nine health services for the whole period March-December 2020 was 3.9% (range: -8.2 to 2.4). The greatest reductions were observed for inpatient admissions (median=-17.0%) and outpatient admissions (median=-7.1%), while antenatal, delivery care and immunisation services generally had smaller reductions (median from -2% to -6%). Eastern African countries had greater reductions than those in West Africa, and rural districts were slightly more affected than urban districts. The greatest drop in services was observed for March-June 2020 for general services, when the response was strongest as measured by a stringency index. CONCLUSION: The district health facility reports provide a solid basis for trend assessment after extensive data quality assessment and adjustment. Even the modest negative impact on service utilisation observed in most countries will require major efforts, supported by the international partners, to maintain progress towards the SDG health targets by 2030.

COVID-19 reinfection in Liberia: Implication for improving disease surveillance.

COVID-19 remains a serious disruption to human health, social, and economic existence. Reinfection with the virus intensifies fears and raises more questions among countries, with few documented reports. This study investigated cases of COVID-19 reinfection using patients' laboratory test results between March 2020 and July 2021 in Liberia. Data obtained from Liberia's Ministry of Health COVID-19 surveillance was analyzed in Excel 365 and ArcGIS Pro 2.8.2. Results showed that with a median interval of 200 days (Range: 99-415), 13 out of 5,459 cases were identified and characterized as reinfection in three counties during the country's third wave of the outbreak. Eighty-six percent of the COVID-19 reinfection cases occurred in Montserrado County within high clusters, which accounted for over 80% of the randomly distributed cases in Liberia. More cases of reinfection occurred among international travelers within populations with high community transmissions. This study suggests the need for continued public education and surveillance to encourage longer-term COVID-19 preventive practices even after recovery.

Clinical and Biochemical Markers of Risk in Uncomplicated Severe Acute Malnutrition.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Use of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) as a single screening tool for severe acute malnutrition (SAM) assumes that children with a low weight-for-height z score (WHZ) and normal MUAC have lower risks of morbidity and mortality. However, the pathophysiology and functional severity associated with different anthropometric phenotypes of SAM have never been well characterized. We compared clinical characteristics, biochemical features, and health and nutrition histories of nonedematous children with SAM who had (1) low WHZ only, (2) both low WHZ and low MUAC, or (3) low MUAC only. METHODS: In Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, and Liberia, we conducted a multicentric cohort study in uncomplicated, nonedematous children with SAM and low MUAC only (n = 161), low WHZ only (n = 138), or a combination of low MUAC and low WHZ (n = 152). Alongside routine anthropometric measurements, we collected a wide range of critical indicators of clinical and nutritional status and viability; these included serum leptin, an adipocytokine negatively associated with mortality risk in SAM. RESULTS: Median leptin levels at diagnosis were lower in children with low WHZ only (215.8 pg/mL; P < .001) and in those with combined WHZ and MUAC deficits (180.1 pg/mL; P < .001) than in children with low MUAC only (331.50 pg/mL). The same pattern emerged on a wide range of clinical indicators, including signs of severe wasting, dehydration, serum ferritin levels, and caretaker-reported health deterioration, and was replicated across study sites. CONCLUSIONS: Illustrative of the likely heterogeneous functional severity of the different anthropometric phenotypes of SAM, our results confirm the need to retain low WHZ as an independent diagnostic criterion.

Distribution of household disinfection kits during the 2014-2015 Ebola virus outbreak in Monrovia, Liberia: The MSF experience.

During the initial phase of the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in Monrovia, Liberia, all hospitals' isolation capacities were overwhelmed by the sheer caseload. As a stop-gap measure to halt transmission, Medecins sans Frontieres (MSF) distributed household disinfection kits to those who were at high risk of EVD contamination. The kit contained chlorine and personal protective materials to be used for the care of a sick person or the handling of a dead body. This intervention was novel and controversial for MSF. This paper shed the light on this experience of distribution in Monrovia and assess if kits were properly used by recipients. Targeted distribution was conducted to those at high risk of EVD (relatives of confirmed EVD cases) and health staff. Mass distributions were also conducted to households in the most EVD affected urban districts. A health promotion strategy focused on the purpose and use of the kit was integrated into the distribution. Follow-up phone calls to recipients were conducted to enquire about the use of the kit. Overall, 65,609 kits were distributed between September and November 2014. A total of 1,386 recipients were reached by phone. A total of 60 cases of sickness and/or death occurred in households who received a kit. The majority of these (46, 10%) were in households of relatives of confirmed EVD cases. Overall, usage of the kits was documented in 56 out of 60 affected households. Out of the 1322 households that did not experience sickness and/or death after the distribution, 583 (44%) made use of elements of the kit, mainly (94%) chlorine for hand-washing. At the peak of an EVD outbreak, the distribution of household disinfection kits was feasible and kits were appropriately used by the majority of recipients. In similar circumstances in the future, the intervention should be considered.

Correction to: Suspected paracetamol overdose in Monrovia, Liberia: a matched case-control Study.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Suspected paracetamol overdose in Monrovia, Liberia: a matched case-control study.

BACKGROUND: A cluster of cases of unexplained multi-organ failure was reported in children at Bardnesville Junction Hospital (BJH), Monrovia, Liberia. Prior to admission, children's caregivers reported antibiotic, antimalarial, paracetamol, and traditional treatment consumption. Since we could not exclude a toxic aetiology, and paracetamol overdose in particular, we implemented prospective syndromic surveillance to better define the clinical characteristics of these children. To investigate risk factors, we performed a case-control study. METHODS: The investigation was conducted in BJH between July 2015 and January 2016. In-hospital syndromic surveillance identified children with at least two of the following symptoms: respiratory distress with normal pulse oximetry while breathing ambient air; altered consciousness; hypoglycaemia; jaundice; and hepatomegaly. After refining the case definition to better reflect potential risk factors for hepatic dysfunction, we selected cases identified from syndromic surveillance for a matched case-control study. Cases were matched with in-hospital and community-based controls by age, sex, month of illness/admission, severity (in-hospital), and proximity of residence (community). RESULTS: Between July and December 2015, 77 case-patients were captured by syndromic surveillance; 68 (88%) were under three years old and 35 (46%) died during hospitalisation. Of these 77, 30 children met our case definition and were matched with 53 hospital and 48 community controls. Paracetamol was the most frequently reported medication taken by the cases and both control groups. The odds of caregivers reporting supra-therapeutic paracetamol consumption prior to admission was higher in cases compared to controls (OR 6.6, 95% CI 2.1-21.3). Plasma paracetamol concentration on day of admission was available for 19 cases and exceeded 10 µg/mL in 10/13 samples collected on day one of admission, and 4/9 (44%) collected on day two. CONCLUSIONS: In a context with limited diagnostic capacity, this study highlights the possibility of supratherapeutic doses of paracetamol as a factor in multi-organ failure in a cohort of children admitted to BJH. In this setting, a careful history of pre-admission paracetamol consumption may alert clinicians to the possibility of overdose, even when confirmatory laboratory analysis is unavailable. Further studies may help define additional toxicological characteristics in such contexts to improve diagnoses.

Evaluating lactate prognostic value in children suspected of acetaminophen-induced liver failure in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of hyperlactatemia in young children with liver injury suspected to be attributed to repeated supratherapeutic doses of acetaminophen remain understudied. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective medical chart review including children aged <5 years admitted with hepatocellular injury. The study was conducted in Bardnesville Junction Hospital operated by Médecins Sans Frontières in Monrovia, Liberia. RESULTS: We analyzed 95 children with liver injury in whom a blood lactate measurement on admission was available. Eighty children (84%) were aged <2 years; 49 children (52%) died during hospitalization. The median acetaminophen concentration on admission was 20 mg/L with 60 (70%) children presenting concentrations exceeding 10 mg/L. Median lactate was significantly higher in children who died (10.7 mmol/L; interquartile range (IQR): 8.5-15.7) than those who survived (6.1 mmol/L; IQR: 4.1-8.5), P value < 0.001). The optimal threshold obtained was 7.2 mmol/L with a sensitivity of 84% and specificity 70% (area under curve = 0.80). The previously established thresholds of 3.5 and 4 mmol/L lactate had very low specificity identifying non-survival in children included in this study. CONCLUSION: In this setting, young children with ALF possibly attributed to acetaminophen toxicity were unlikely to survive if the venous blood lactate concentration exceeded 7.2 mmol/L.

The 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease outbreak and primary healthcare delivery in Liberia: Time-series analyses for 2010-2016.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to estimate the immediate and lasting effects of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak on public-sector primary healthcare delivery in Liberia using 7 years of comprehensive routine health information system data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed 10 key primary healthcare indicators before, during, and after the EVD outbreak using 31,836 facility-month service outputs from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2016 across a census of 379 public-sector health facilities in Liberia (excluding Montserrado County). All indicators had statistically significant decreases during the first 4 months of the EVD outbreak, with all indicators having their lowest raw mean outputs in August 2014. Decreases in outputs comparing the end of the initial EVD period (September 2014) to May 2014 (pre-EVD) ranged in magnitude from a 67.3% decrease in measles vaccinations (95% CI: -77.9%, -56.8%, p < 0.001) and a 61.4% decrease in artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) treatments for malaria (95% CI: -69.0%, -53.8%, p < 0.001) to a 35.2% decrease in first antenatal care (ANC) visits (95% CI: -45.8%, -24.7%, p < 0.001) and a 38.5% decrease in medroxyprogesterone acetate doses (95% CI: -47.6%, -29.5%, p < 0.001). Following the nadir of system outputs in August 2014, all indicators showed statistically significant increases from October 2014 to December 2014. All indicators had significant positive trends during the post-EVD period, with every system output exceeding pre-Ebola forecasted trends for 3 consecutive months by November 2016. Health system outputs lost during and after the EVD outbreak were large and sustained for most indicators. Prior to exceeding pre-EVD forecasted trends for 3 months, we estimate statistically significant cumulative losses of -776,110 clinic visits (95% CI: -1,480,896, -101,357, p = 0.030); -24,449 bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccinations (95% CI: -45,947, -2,020, p = 0.032); -9,129 measles vaccinations (95% CI: -12,312, -5,659, p < 0.001); -17,191 postnatal care (PNC) visits within 6 weeks of birth (95% CI: -28,344, -5,775, p = 0.002); and -101,857 ACT malaria treatments (95% CI: -205,839, -2,139, p = 0.044) due to the EVD outbreak. Other outputs showed statistically significant cumulative losses only through December 2014, including losses of -12,941 first pentavalent vaccinations (95% CI: -20,309, -5,527, p = 0.002); -5,122 institutional births (95% CI: -8,767, -1,234, p = 0.003); and -45,024 acute respiratory infections treated (95% CI: -66,185, -24,019, p < 0.001). Compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, medroxyprogesterone acetate doses and first ANC visits did not show statistically significant net losses. ACT treatment for malaria was the only indicator with an estimated net increase in system outputs through December 2016, showing an excess of +78,583 outputs (95% CI: -309,417, +450,661, p = 0.634) compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, although this increase was not statistically significant. However, comparing December 2013 to December 2017, ACT malaria cases have increased 49.2% (95% CI: 33.9%, 64.5%, p < 0.001). Compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, there remains a statistically significant loss of -15,144 PNC visits within 6 weeks (95% CI: -29,453, -787, p = 0.040) through December 2016. CONCLUSIONS: The Liberian public-sector primary healthcare system has made strides towards recovery from the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak. All primary healthcare indicators tracked have recovered to pre-EVD levels as of November 2016. Yet, for most indicators, it took more than 1 year to recover to pre-EVD levels. During this time, large losses of essential primary healthcare services occurred compared to what would have been expected had the EVD outbreak not occurred. The disruption of malaria case management during the EVD outbreak may have resulted in increased malaria cases. Large and sustained investments in public-sector primary care health system strengthening are urgently needed for EVD-affected countries.

Analysis of patient data from laboratories during the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Liberia, April 2014 to March 2015.

An outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia began in March 2014 and ended in January 2016. Epidemiological information on the EVD cases was collected and managed nationally; however, collection and management of the data were challenging at the time because surveillance and reporting systems malfunctioned during the outbreak. EVD diagnostic laboratories, however, were able to register basic demographic and clinical information of patients more systematically. Here we present data on 16,370 laboratory samples that were tested between April 4, 2014 and March 29, 2015. A total of 10,536 traceable individuals were identified, of whom 3,897 were confirmed cases (positive for Ebola virus RNA). There were significant differences in sex, age, and place of residence between confirmed and suspected cases that tested negative for Ebola virus RNA. Age (young children and the elderly) and place of residence (rural areas) were the risk factors for death due to the disease. The case fatality rate of confirmed cases decreased from 80% to 63% during the study period. These findings may help support future investigations and lead to a fuller understanding of the outbreak in Liberia.

Development, Use, and Impact of a Global Laboratory Database During the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa.

Background: The international impact, rapid widespread transmission, and reporting delays during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted the need for a global, centralized database to inform outbreak response. The World Health Organization and Emerging and Dangerous Pathogens Laboratory Network addressed this need by supporting the development of a global laboratory database. Methods: Specimens were collected in the affected countries from patients and dead bodies meeting the case definitions for Ebola virus disease. Test results were entered in nationally standardized spreadsheets and consolidated onto a central server. Results: From March 2014 through August 2016, 256343 specimens tested for Ebola virus disease were captured in the database. Thirty-one specimen types were collected, and a variety of diagnostic tests were performed. Regular analysis of data described the functionality of laboratory and response systems, positivity rates, and the geographic distribution of specimens. Conclusion: With data standardization and end user buy-in, the collection and analysis of large amounts of data with multiple stakeholders and collaborators across various user-access levels was made possible and contributed to outbreak response needs. The usefulness and value of a multifunctional global laboratory database is far reaching, with uses including virtual biobanking, disease forecasting, and adaption to other disease outbreaks.

Characterizing risk of Ebola transmission based on frequency and type of case-contact exposures.

During the initial months of the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic, rapid geographical dissemination and intense transmission challenged response efforts across West Africa. Contextual behaviours associated with increased risk of exposure included travel to high-transmission settings, caring for sick and preparing the deceased for traditional funerals. Although such behaviours are widespread in West Africa, high-transmission pockets were observed. Superspreading and clustering are typical phenomena in infectious disease outbreaks, as a relatively small number of transmission chains are often responsible for the majority of events. Determining the characteristics of contacts at greatest risk of developing disease and of cases with greatest transmission potential could therefore help curb propagation of infection. Our analysis of contact tracing data from Montserrado County, Liberia, suggested that the probability of transmission was 4.5 times higher for individuals who were reported as having contact with multiple cases. The probability of individuals developing disease was not significantly associated with age or sex of their source case but was higher when they were in the same household as the infectious case. Surveillance efforts for rapidly identifying symptomatic individuals and effectively messaged campaigns encouraging household members to bring the sick to designated treatment centres without administration of home care could mitigate transmission.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.

Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications). CONCLUSIONS: Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.

Mortality, Morbidity and Health-Seeking Behaviour during the Ebola Epidemic 2014-2015 in Monrovia Results from a Mobile Phone Survey.

Between March 2014 and July 2015 at least 10,500 Ebola cases including more than 4,800 deaths occurred in Liberia, the majority in Monrovia. However, official numbers may have underestimated the size of the outbreak. Closure of health facilities and mistrust in existing structures may have additionally impacted on all-cause morbidity and mortality. To quantify mortality and morbidity and describe health-seeking behaviour in Monrovia, Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) conducted a mobile phone survey from December 2014 to March 2015. We drew a random sample of households in Monrovia and conducted structured mobile phone interviews, covering morbidity, mortality and health-seeking behaviour from 14 May 2014 until the day of the survey. We defined an Ebola-related death as any death meeting the Liberian Ebola case definition. We calculated all-cause and Ebola-specific mortality rates. The sample consisted of 6,813 household members in 905 households. We estimated a crude mortality rate (CMR) of 0.33/10,000 persons/day (95%CI:0.25-0.43) and an Ebola-specific mortality rate of 0.06/10,000 persons/day (95%-CI:0.03-0.11). During the recall period, 17 Ebola cases were reported including those who died. In the 30 days prior to the survey 277 household members were reported sick; malaria accounted for 54% (150/277). Of the sick household members, 43% (122/276) did not visit any health care facility. The mobile phone-based survey was found to be a feasible and acceptable alternative method when data collection in the community is impossible. CMR was estimated well below the emergency threshold of 1/10,000 persons/day. Non-Ebola-related mortality in Monrovia was not higher than previous national estimates of mortality for Liberia. However, excess mortality directly resulting from Ebola did occur in the population. Importantly, the small proportion of sick household members presenting to official health facilities when sick might pose a challenge for future outbreak detection and mitigation. Substantial reported health-seeking behaviour outside of health facilities may also suggest the need for adapted health messaging and improved access to health care.

Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence.

Ebola and Its Control in Liberia, 2014-2015.

The severe epidemic of Ebola virus disease in Liberia started in March 2014. On May 9, 2015, the World Health Organization declared Liberia free of Ebola, 42 days after safe burial of the last known case-patient. However, another 6 cases occurred during June-July; on September 3, 2015, the country was again declared free of Ebola. Liberia had by then reported 10,672 cases of Ebola and 4,808 deaths, 37.0% and 42.6%, respectively, of the 28,103 cases and 11,290 deaths reported from the 3 countries that were heavily affected at that time. Essential components of the response included government leadership and sense of urgency, coordinated international assistance, sound technical work, flexibility guided by epidemiologic data, transparency and effective communication, and efforts by communities themselves. Priorities after the epidemic include surveillance in case of resurgence, restoration of health services, infection control in healthcare settings, and strengthening of basic public health systems.

Determinants of patient survival during the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in Bong County, Liberia.

BACKGROUND: The unprecedented size of the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has allowed for a more extensive characterization of the clinical presentation and management of this disease. In this study, we report the trends in morbidity, mortality, and determinants of patient survival as EVD spread into Bong County, Liberia. METHODS: An analysis of suspected, probable, or confirmed cases of EVD (n = 607) reported to the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW) between March 23rd and December 31st 2014 was conducted. The likelihood of infection given exposure factors was determined using logistic regression in individuals with a definitive diagnosis by RT-PCR (n = 321). The risk of short-term mortality (30 days) given demographic factors, clinical symptoms, and highest level of treatment received was assessed with Cox regression and survival analyses (n = 391). RESULTS: The overall mortality rate was 53.5 % (95 % CI: 49 %, 58 %) and decreased as access to medical treatment increased. Those who reported contact with another EVD case were more likely to be infected (OR: 5.7), as were those who attended a funeral (OR: 3.9). Mortality increased with age (P < 0.001) and was higher in males compared to females (P =0.006). Fever (HR: 6.63), vomiting (HR: 1.93), diarrhea (HR: 1.99), and unexplained bleeding (HR: 2.17) were associated with increased mortality. After adjusting for age, hospitalized patients had a 74 % reduction in the risk of short term mortality (P < 0.001 AHR: 0.26; 95 % CI AHR: 0.18, 0.37), compared to those not given medical intervention. CONCLUSION: Even treatment with only basic supportive care such as intravenous rehydration therapy was able to significantly improve patient survival in suspected, probable, or confirmed EVD cases.

Reducing under-reporting of stigmatized health events using the List Experiment: results from a randomized, population-based study of abortion in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Direct measurement of sensitive health events is often limited by high levels of under-reporting due to stigma and concerns about privacy. Abortion in particular is notoriously difficult to measure. This study implements a novel method to estimate the cumulative lifetime incidence of induced abortion in Liberia. METHODS: In a randomly selected sample of 3219 women ages 15­49 years in June 2013 in Liberia, we implemented the 'Double List Experiment'. To measure abortion incidence, each woman was read two lists: (A) a list of non-sensitive items and (B) a list of correlated non-sensitive items with abortion added. The sensitive item, abortion, was randomly added to either List A or List B for each respondent. The respondent reported a simple count of the options on each list that she had experienced, without indicating which options. Difference in means calculations between the average counts for each list were then averaged to provide an estimate of the population proportion that has had an abortion. RESULTS: The list experiment estimates that 32% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.29-0.34) of respondents surveyed had ever had an abortion (26% of women in urban areas, and 36% of women in rural areas, P-value for difference < 0.001), with a 95% response rate. CONCLUSIONS: The list experiment generated an estimate five times greater than the only previous representative estimate of abortion in Liberia, indicating the potential utility of this method to reduce under-reporting in the measurement of abortion. The method could be widely applied to measure other stigmatized health topics, including sexual behaviours, sexual assault or domestic violence.