Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: The development of a prognostic mortality risk model for hospitalized COVID-19 patients may facilitate patient treatment planning, comparisons of therapeutic strategies, and public health preparations. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the electronic health records of patients hospitalized within a 13-hospital New Jersey USA network between March 1, 2020 and April 22, 2020 with positive polymerase chain reaction results for SARS-CoV-2, with follow-up through May 29, 2020. With death or hospital discharge by day 40 as the primary endpoint, we used univariate followed by stepwise multivariate proportional hazard models to develop a risk score on one-half the data set, validated on the remainder, and converted the risk score into a patient-level predictive probability of 40-day mortality based on the combined dataset. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 3123 hospitalized COVID-19 patients; median age 63 years; 60% were men; 42% had >3 coexisting conditions. 713 (23%) patients died within 40 days of hospitalization for COVID-19. From 22 potential candidate factors 6 were found to be independent predictors of mortality and were included in the risk score model: age, respiratory rate ≥25/minute upon hospital presentation, oxygenation <94% on hospital presentation, and pre-hospital comorbidities of hypertension, coronary artery disease, or chronic renal disease. The risk score was highly prognostic of mortality in a training set and confirmatory set yielding in the combined dataset a hazard ratio of 1.80 (95% CI, 1.72, 1.87) for one unit increases. Using observed mortality within 20 equally sized bins of risk scores, a predictive model for an individual's 40-day risk of mortality was generated as -14.258 + 13.460*RS + 1.585*(RS-2.524)^2-0.403*(RS-2.524)^3. An online calculator of this 40-day COVID-19 mortality risk score is available at www.HackensackMeridianHealth.org/CovidRS. CONCLUSIONS: A risk score using six variables is able to prognosticate mortality within 40-days of hospitalization for COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04347993.

Hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of outpatients with mildly symptomatic COVID-19: a multi-center observational study.

BACKGROUND: Hydroxychloroquine has not been associated with improved survival among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the majority of observational studies and similarly was not identified as an effective prophylaxis following exposure in a prospective randomized trial. We aimed to explore the role of hydroxychloroquine therapy in mildly symptomatic patients diagnosed in the outpatient setting. METHODS: We examined the association between outpatient hydroxychloroquine exposure and the subsequent progression of disease among mildly symptomatic non-hospitalized patients with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary outcome assessed was requirement of hospitalization. Data was obtained from a retrospective review of electronic health records within a New Jersey USA multi-hospital network. We compared outcomes in patients who received hydroxychloroquine with those who did not applying a multivariable logistic model with propensity matching. RESULTS: Among 1274 outpatients with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection 7.6% were prescribed hydroxychloroquine. In a 1067 patient propensity matched cohort, 21.6% with outpatient exposure to hydroxychloroquine were hospitalized, and 31.4% without exposure were hospitalized. In the primary multivariable logistic regression analysis with propensity matching there was an association between exposure to hydroxychloroquine and a decreased rate of hospitalization from COVID-19 (OR 0.53; 95% CI, 0.29, 0.95). Sensitivity analyses revealed similar associations. QTc prolongation events occurred in 2% of patients prescribed hydroxychloroquine with no reported arrhythmia events among those with data available. CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective observational study of SARS-CoV-2 infected non-hospitalized patients hydroxychloroquine exposure was associated with a decreased rate of subsequent hospitalization. Additional exploration of hydroxychloroquine in this mildly symptomatic outpatient population is warranted.

Hydroxychloroquine and tocilizumab therapy in COVID-19 patients-An observational study.

Hydroxychloroquine has been touted as a potential COVID-19 treatment. Tocilizumab, an inhibitor of IL-6, has also been proposed as a treatment of critically ill patients. In this retrospective observational cohort study drawn from electronic health records we sought to describe the association between mortality and hydroxychloroquine or tocilizumab therapy among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Patients were hospitalized at a 13-hospital network spanning New Jersey USA between March 1, 2020 and April 22, 2020 with positive polymerase chain reaction results for SARS-CoV-2. Follow up was through May 5, 2020. Among 2512 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 there have been 547 deaths (22%), 1539 (61%) discharges and 426 (17%) remain hospitalized. 1914 (76%) received at least one dose of hydroxychloroquine and 1473 (59%) received hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. After adjusting for imbalances via propensity modeling, compared to receiving neither drug, there were no significant differences in associated mortality for patients receiving any hydroxychloroquine during the hospitalization (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.80-1.22]), hydroxychloroquine alone (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.83-1.27]), or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin (HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.75-1.28]). The 30-day unadjusted mortality for patients receiving hydroxychloroquine alone, azithromycin alone, the combination or neither drug was 25%, 20%, 18%, and 20%, respectively. Among 547 evaluable ICU patients, including 134 receiving tocilizumab in the ICU, an exploratory analysis found a trend towards an improved survival association with tocilizumab treatment (adjusted HR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.57-1.00]), with 30 day unadjusted mortality with and without tocilizumab of 46% versus 56%. This observational cohort study suggests hydroxychloroquine, either alone or in combination with azithromycin, was not associated with a survival benefit among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Tocilizumab demonstrated a trend association towards reduced mortality among ICU patients. Our findings are limited to hospitalized patients and must be interpreted with caution while awaiting results of randomized trials. Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04347993.

Tocilizumab among patients with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit: a multicentre observational study.

BACKGROUND: Tocilizumab, a monoclonal antibody directed against the interleukin-6 receptor, has been proposed to mitigate the cytokine storm syndrome associated with severe COVID-19. We aimed to investigate the association between tocilizumab exposure and hospital-related mortality among patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) support for COVID-19. METHODS: We did a retrospective observational cohort study at 13 hospitals within the Hackensack Meridian Health network (NJ, USA). We included patients (aged ≥18 years) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who needed support in the ICU. We obtained data from a prospective observational database and compared outcomes in patients who received tocilizumab with those who did not. We applied a multivariable Cox model with propensity score matching to reduce confounding effects. The primary endpoint was hospital-related mortality. The prospective observational database is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04347993. FINDINGS: Between March 1 and April 22, 2020, 764 patients with COVID-19 required support in the ICU, of whom 210 (27%) received tocilizumab. Factors associated with receiving tocilizumab were patients' age, gender, renal function, and treatment location. 630 patients were included in the propensity score-matched population, of whom 210 received tocilizumab and 420 did not receive tocilizumab. 358 (57%) of 630 patients died, 102 (49%) who received tocilizumab and 256 (61%) who did not receive tocilizumab. Overall median survival from time of admission was not reached (95% CI 23 days-not reached) among patients receiving tocilizumab and was 19 days (16-26) for those who did not receive tocilizumab (hazard ratio [HR] 0·71, 95% CI 0·56-0·89; p=0·0027). In the primary multivariable Cox regression analysis with propensity matching, an association was noted between receiving tocilizumab and decreased hospital-related mortality (HR 0·64, 95% CI 0·47-0·87; p=0·0040). Similar associations with tocilizumab were noted among subgroups requiring mechanical ventilatory support and with baseline C-reactive protein of 15 mg/dL or higher. INTERPRETATION: In this observational study, patients with COVID-19 requiring ICU support who received tocilizumab had reduced mortality. Results of ongoing randomised controlled trials are awaited. FUNDING: None.

Vorinostat in Combination With Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Lenalidomide-Refractory Multiple Myeloma.

BACKGROUND: This is a retrospective chart review to evaluate the efficacy of the addition of vorinostat to lenalidomide and dexamethasone in patients with multiple myeloma relapsed/refractory to lenalidomide and dexamethasone. METHODS: Charts from 26 consecutive patients able to obtain commercial vorinostat were analyzed for response and safety data. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 31%, and the clinical beneficial rate was 50%. The median duration of response was 3 months, and the median overall survival was 28.5 months. The most common grade 3 and 4 toxicities were hematologic and metabolic, including neutropenia (44%), thrombocytopenia (53%), and transaminase elevations (aspartate aminotransferase 9% and alanine aminotransferase 6%). No thromboembolic events or febrile neutropenia were observed. CONCLUSION: These observations demonstrate that the addition of vorinostat to patients with lenalidomide- and dexamethasone-refractory multiple myeloma was associated with moderate response and was well-tolerated, warranting further assessment in a larger prospective study.

Phase I study of carfilzomib, lenalidomide, vorinostat, and dexamethasone in patients with relapsed and/or refractory multiple myeloma.

Research has shown that proteasome inhibitors (e.g., carfilzomib), immunomodulatory agents (e.g., lenalidomide), histone deacetylase inhibitors (e.g., vorinostat) and corticosteroids (e.g., dexamethasone) have synergistic anti-multiple myeloma (MM) activity. This phase I dose-escalation study evaluated a regimen combining carfilzomib, lenalidomide, vorinostat and dexamethasone (QUAD) in patients with relapsed and/or refractory MM. Seventeen patients received carfilzomib (15, 20, or 20/27 mg/m(2) ; 30-min infusion; days 1, 2, 8, 9, 15, 16), lenalidomide (15 or 25 mg; days 1-21), vorinostat (300 or 400 mg; days 1-7, 15-21), and dexamethasone (40 mg; days 1, 8, 15, 22) in 28-d cycles. No dose-limiting toxicities were observed; the maximum tolerated dose was not reached. The maximum administered dose was carfilzomib 20/27 mg/m(2) , lenalidomide 25 mg, vorinostat 400 mg, and dexamethasone 40 mg. Common grade ≥3 adverse events included neutropenia (53%), thrombocytopenia (53%) and anaemia (41%). The overall response rate was 53%: 12% of patients achieved a very good partial response (PR) and 41% of patients achieved a PR. At a median follow-up of 10 months, median progression-free survival was 12 months and median overall survival was not reached. Treatment with QUAD was feasible and had encouraging activity in patients with relapsed and/or refractory MM.