Predicting healthcare-seeking behavior based on stated readiness to act: development and validation of a prediction model.

A starting point of many digital health interventions informed by the Stages of Change Model of behavior change is assessing a person's readiness to change. In this paper, we use the concept of readiness to develop and validate a prediction model of health-seeking behavior in the context of family planning. We conducted a secondary analysis of routinely collected, anonymized health data submitted by 4,088 female users of a free health chatbot in Kenya. We developed a prediction model of (future) self-reported action by randomly splitting the data into training and test data sets (80/20, stratified by the outcome). We further split the training data into 10 folds for cross-validating the hyperparameter tuning step in model selection. We fit nine different classification models and selected the model that maximized the area under the receiver operator curve. We then fit the selected model to the full training dataset and evaluated the performance of this model on the holdout test data. The model predicted who will visit a family planning provider in the future with high precision (0.93) and moderate recall (0.75). Using the Stages of Change framework, we concluded that 29% of women were in the "Preparation" stage, 21% were in the "Contemplation" stage, and 50% were in the "Pre-Contemplation" stage. We demonstrated that it is possible to accurately predict future healthcare-seeking behavior based on information learned during the initial encounter. Models like this may help intervention developers to tailor strategies and content in real-time.

The Validity of Women's Reports of Family Planning Service Quality in Cambodia and Kenya.

Population-based indicators of the coverage of key elements of high-quality family planning services are tracked via household surveys with female respondents, yet little work has been done to establish their validity. We take advantage of existing data sets from Cambodia and Kenya to compare women's responses at exit interviews following a health facility visit against the observations of a trained third-party observer during the visit. The results, which treat the observations as the reference standard, show that indicators that measure contraceptive methods received are accurately reported while indicators of whether the woman received her preferred method and whether information was "discussed" or "explained" during counseling are less reliably reported. Studies designed explicitly to assess the validity of family planning questions in household surveys, especially questions in large survey programs critical for monitoring demographic trends and programmatic coverage, are needed.

Use of interactive voice response technology to address barriers to fistula care in Nigeria and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The use of digital health technologies has expanded across low-resource settings, including in programs seeking to improve maternal health care seeking and service usage. However, there has been limited use of these technologies for screening and referral within maternal health, and many interventions have relied on SMS tools, which may have limited impact in settings with low female literacy. Digital health technologies have the potential to increase access to care for chronic maternal morbidities, such as obstetric fistula, and for women facing stigma, geographic isolation, and other sociocultural barriers to care seeking. This study documented the process of developing and implementing an innovative fistula screening and referral hotline using interactive voice response (IVR) technology, and described the service usage results and stakeholder perspectives associated with the hotline. METHODS: The IVR hotline was introduced within the context of a broader Fistula Treatment Barriers Reduction Intervention implemented by the USAID-funded Fistula Care Plus project in Ebonyi and Katsina states in Nigeria and Kalungu district in Uganda. The intervention used three communication pathways to disseminate fistula information and conduct fistula screening: trained community agents, trained primary health care providers, and the IVR hotline paired with mass media messaging. All positively-screened women were eligible to receive vouchers for free transportation to an accredited fistula treatment center. Quantitative and qualitative data on intervention implementation and use across all three communication pathways were gathered during intervention implementation, at baseline, midline, and endline; as well as through ongoing program monitoring. This study presents findings specifically on service usage and stakeholder perspectives related to the IVR hotline. RESULTS: Over a period of ten to twelve months of implementation, depending on the intervention area, a total of 566 women completed the IVR hotline screening process. Across the areas, 415 (73%) hotline callers screened positive for fistula symptoms. Hotline users and implementation partners reported positive impressions of the hotline, particularly the ability to preserve anonymity in seeking information and referral for fistula symptoms. Challenges to hotline use included limited mobile phone ownership and poor cellular network connectivity, affecting operability by women and community agents. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the fistula screening hotline suggests that IVR-based interventions may be useful in expanding access to health services for stigmatized conditions, particularly in settings where literacy is limited. In the current context, such IVR tools require pairing with community and health system partners to complete referral and support clients. Further program experience and evaluation research is required to understand the options for integrating the IVR hotline or other interventions similarly using mobile technologies for screening and referral into broader digital health platforms that are sustained by national health systems or commercial business models.

Association Between the Quality of Contraceptive Counseling and Method Continuation: Findings From a Prospective Cohort Study in Social Franchise Clinics in Pakistan and Uganda.

Quality of family planning counseling is likely associated with whether or not women continue to use the same contraceptive method over time. The Method Information Index (MII) is a widely available measure of contraceptive counseling quality but little is known about its association with rates of method continuation. The index ranges from 0 to 3 based on a client's answer to whether she was told about other methods, potential side effects with her chosen method, and what to do if she experienced side effects. Using data from a prospective cohort study of 1,998 social franchise clients in Pakistan and Uganda, we investigated the relationship between reported baseline MII and the risk of method continuation over 12 months using survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. At baseline, about 65% of women in Pakistan and 73% of women in Uganda reported receiving information about all 3 MII aspects. In Pakistan, 59.4% of the 165 women who stopped using their modern method did so while still in need of contraception. In Uganda, of the 77 women who stopped modern method use, 64.9% discontinued while in need. Despite important differences in the demographics and method mix between the 2 countries, we found similar associations between baseline MII and discontinuation: in both countries as the MII score increased, the risk of discontinuation while in need decreased. In Pakistan, the risk of contraceptive discontinuation was 64% lower (crude hazard ratio [HRcrude]=0.36; P=.03), and 72% lower (HRcrude=0.28; P=.007), among women who were told about any 2, or any 3 aspects of MII, respectively. After adjusting for additional covariates, only the difference in the risk of contraceptive discontinuation between MII=3 and MII=0 remained statistically significant (HRadj=0.35; P=0.04). In Uganda, women who reported being informed about all aspects of MII were 80% less likely to discontinue while in need (HRadj=0.20; P<.001), women informed about any 2 aspects of MII were 90% less likely (HRadj=0.10; P<.001), and women who were informed about any 1 aspect of MII were 68% less likely (HRadj=0.32; P<.02) to discontinue contraceptive use while in need as compared to women who reported not being informed about any aspect of MII. Baseline MII scores were positively associated with method continuation rates in our sample of clients from social franchises in both Pakistan and Uganda and could potentially be used as an indicator of contraceptive counseling quality.

Evaluating the impact of a maternal health voucher programme on service use before and after the introduction of free maternity services in Kenya: a quasi-experimental study.

INTRODUCTION: From 2006 to 2016, the Government of Kenya implemented a reproductive health voucher programme in select counties, providing poor women subsidised access to public and private sector care. In June 2013, the government introduced a policy calling for free maternity services to be provided in all public facilities. The concurrent implementation of these interventions presents an opportunity to provide new insights into how users adapt to a changing health financing and service provision landscape. METHODS: We used data from three cross-sectional surveys to assess changes over time in use of 4+ antenatal care visits, facility delivery, postnatal care and maternal healthcare across the continuum among a sample of predominantly poor women in six counties. We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis to estimate the impact of the voucher programme on these outcomes, and whether programme impact changed after free maternity services were introduced. RESULTS: Between the preintervention/roll-out phase and full implementation, the voucher programme was associated with a 5.5% greater absolute increase in use of facility delivery and substantial increases in use of the private sector for all services. After free maternity services were introduced, the voucher programme was associated with a 5.7% higher absolute increase in use of the recommended package of maternal health services; however, disparities in access to facility births between voucher and comparison counties declined. Increased use of private sector services by women in voucher counties accounts for their greater access to care across the continuum. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that the voucher programme is associated with a modest increase in women's use of the full continuum of maternal health services at the recommended timings after free maternity services were introduced. The greater use of private sector services in voucher counties also suggests that there is need to expand women's access to acceptable and affordable providers.

Improving Access to Delivery Care and Reducing the Equity Gap Through Voucher Program in Bangladesh: Evidence From Difference-in-Differences Analysis.

To test a statistically significant change in delivery by medically trained providers following introduction of a demand-side financing voucher, a population-based quasi-experimental study was undertaken, with 3,300 mothers in 2010 and 3,334 mothers at follow-up in 2012 in government-implemented voucher program and control areas. Results found that voucher program was significantly associated with increased public health facility use (difference-in-differences (DID) 13.9) and significantly increased delivery complication management care (DID 13.2) at facility although a null effect was found in facility-based delivery increase. A subset analysis of the five well-functioning facilities showed that facility deliveries increased DID 5.3 percentage points. Quintile-based analysis of all facilities showed that facility delivery increased more than threefold in lower quintile households comparing to twofold in control sites. The program needs better targeting to the beneficiaries, ensuring available gynecologist-anesthetist pair and midwives, effective monitoring, and timely fund reimbursements to facilities.

Increasing Contraceptive Access for Hard-to-Reach Populations With Vouchers and Social Franchising in Uganda.

From 2001 to 2011, modern contraceptive prevalence in Uganda increased from 18% to 26%. However, modern method use, in particular use of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) and permanent methods (PMs), remained low. In the 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey, only 1 of 5 married women used a LARC or PM even though 34% indicated an unmet need for contraception. Between 2011 and 2014, a social franchise and family planning voucher program, supporting 400 private facilities to provide family planning counseling and broaden contraceptive choice by adding LARCs and PMs to the service mix, offered a voucher to enable poor women to access family planning services at franchised facilities. This study analyzes service trends and voucher client demographics and estimates the contribution of the program to increasing contraceptive prevalence in Uganda, using the Impact 2 model developed by Marie Stopes International. Between March 2011 and December 2014, 330,826 women received a family planning service using the voucher, of which 70% of voucher clients chose an implant and 25% chose an intrauterine device. The median age of voucher users was 28 years; 79% had no education or only a primary education; and 48% reported they were unemployed or a housewife. We estimated that by 2014, 280,000 of the approximately 8,600,000 women of reproductive age in Uganda were using a contraceptive method provided by the program and that 120,000 of the clients were "additional users" of contraception, contributing 1.4 percentage points to the national modern contraceptive prevalence rate. The combination of family planning vouchers and a franchise-based quality improvement initiative can leverage existing private health infrastructure to substantially expand family planning access and choice for disadvantaged populations and potentially improve contraceptive prevalence when scaled nationally.

Stroke-attributable death among older persons during the great recession.

Epidemiological evidence indicates an elevated risk for stroke among stressed persons, in general, and among individuals who have lost their job, in particular. We, therefore, tested the hypothesis that stroke accounted for a larger fraction of deaths during the Great Recession than expected from other deaths and from trends, cycles, and other forms of autocorrelation. Based on vital statistics death data from California spanning 132 months from January 2000 through December 2010, we found support for the hypothesis. These findings appear attributable to non-Hispanic white men, who experienced a 5% increase in their monthly odds of stroke-attributable death. Total mortality in this group, however, did not increase. Findings suggest that 879 deaths among older white men shifted from other causes to stroke during the 36 months following the start of the Great Recession. We infer the Great Recession may have affected social, biologic, and behavioral risk factors that altered the life histories of older white men in ways that shifted mortality risk toward stroke.

Review of performance-based incentives in community-based family planning programmes.

BACKGROUND: One strategy for improving family planning (FP) uptake at the community level is the use of performance-based incentives (PBIs), which offer community distributors financial incentives to recruit more users of FP. This article examines the use of PBIs in community-based FP programmes via a literature search of the peer-reviewed and grey literature conducted in April 2013. RESULTS: A total of 28 community-based FP programmes in 21 countries were identified as having used PBIs. The most common approach was a sales commission model where distributors received commission for FP products sold, while a referral payment model for long-term methods was also used extensively. Six evaluations were identified that specifically examined the impact of the PBI in community-based FP programmes. Overall, the results of the evaluations are mixed and more research is needed; however, the findings suggest that easy-to-understand PBIs can be successful in increasing the use of FP at the community level. CONCLUSION: For future use of PBIs in community-based FP programmes it is important to consider the ethics of incentivising FP and ensuring that PBIs are non-coercive and choice-enhancing.

Distance, transportation cost, and mode of transport in the utilization of facility-based maternity services: evidence from rural Bangladesh.

Although the maternal mortality ratio in Bangladesh has decreased, significant underutilization of facilities continues to be a persistent challenge to policy makers. Women face long distances and significant transportation cost to deliver at health facilities. This study identifies the distance traveled to utilize facilities, associated transportation cost, and transport mode used for maternal healthcare services. A total of 3,300 mothers aged 18-49 years, who had given birth in the year before the survey, were interviewed from 22 sub-districts in 2010. Findings suggest that facility-based maternal healthcare service utilization was very poor. Only 53% of women received antenatal care, 20% used delivery care. and 10% used postnatal care from health centers. Median distance traveled for antenatal and postnatal check-ups was 2 kilometers but 4 kilometers for complication management care and delivery. Most women used non-motorized rickshaw or van to reach a health facility. On average, women spent Taka 100 (US$1.40) as transportation cost for antenatal care, Taka 432 (US$6.17) for delivery, and Taka 132 (US$1.89) for postnatal check-up. For each additional kilometer, the cost increased by Taka 9 (US$0.13) for antenatal, Taka 31 (US$0.44) for delivery, and Taka 8 (US$0.11) for postnatal care.

Out-of-pocket expenses for maternity care in rural Bangladesh: a public-private comparison.

Out-of-pocket expenses incurred by women for availing maternal healthcare services at public and private health facilities in Bangladesh were examined using a baseline household survey evaluating the impact of demand side financing vouchers on utilization and service delivery for maternal healthcare. The survey was conducted in 2010 among 3,300 women who gave birth in the previous 12 months from the start of data collection. Information on costs incurred to receive antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care services was collected. Findings reveal that the majority of women reported paying out-of-pocket expenses for availing maternal healthcare services both at public and private health facilities. Out-of-pocket expenses include registration, consultation, laboratory examination, medicine, transportation, and other associated costs incurred for receiving maternal healthcare services. On average, women paid US$3.60 out-of-pocket expenses for receiving antenatal care at public health facilities and US$12.40 at private health facilities. Similarly, women paid one and half times more for normal (US$42.30) and cesarean deliveries (US$136.20) at private health facilities compared to public health facilities. On the other hand, costs for postnatal care services did not vary significantly between public and private health facilities. Utilization of maternal healthcare services can be improved if out-of-pocket expenses can be minimized. At the same time, effective demand generation strategies are necessary to encourage women to utilize health facilities.

Evaluation of the impact of the voucher and accreditation approach on improving reproductive behaviors and status in Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: Cost of delivering reproductive health services to low income populations will always require total or partial subsidization by government and/or development partners. Broadly termed "demand-side financing" or "output-based aid", these strategies include a range of interventions that channel government or donor subsidies to the user rather than the service provider. Initial pilot assessments of reproductive health voucher programs suggest that they can increase access, reduce inequities, and enhance program efficiency and service quality. However, there is a paucity of evidence describing how these programs function in different settings for various reproductive health services. METHODS/DESIGN: Population Council, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, intends to generate evidence around the "voucher and accreditation" approaches to improving the reproductive health of low-income women in Cambodia. The study comprises of four populations: facilities, providers, women of reproductive age using facilities, and women and men who have been pregnant and/or used family planning within the previous 12 months. The study will be carried out in a sample of 20 health facilities that are accredited to provide maternal and newborn health and family planning services to women holding vouchers from operational districts in three provinces: Kampong Thom, Kampot and Prey Veng and a matched sample of non-accredited facilities in three other provinces. Health facility assessments will be conducted at baseline and endline to track temporal changes in quality-of-care, client out-of-pocket costs, and utilization. Facility inventories, structured observations, and client exit interviews will be used to collect comparable data across facilities. Health providers will also be interviewed and observed providing care. A population survey of about 3000 respondents will also be conducted in areas where vouchers are distributed and similar non-voucher locations. DISCUSSION: A quasi-experimental study will investigate the impact of the voucher approach on improving reproductive health behaviors, reproductive health status and reducing inequities at the population level and assess effects on access, equity and quality of care at the facility level. If the voucher scheme in Cambodia is found effective, it may help other countries adopt this approach for improving utilization and access to reproductive health and family planning services.

Evaluation of the impact of the voucher and accreditation approach on improving reproductive behaviors and RH status: Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Cost of delivering reproductive health services to low-income populations will always require total or partial subsidization by the government and/or development partners. Broadly termed "Demand-Side Financing" or "Output-Based Aid", includes a range of interventions that channel government or donor subsidies to the service user rather than the service provider. Initial findings from the few assessments of reproductive health voucher-and-accreditation programs suggest that, if implemented well, these programs have great potential for achieving the policy objectives of increasing access and use, reducing inequities and enhancing program efficiency and service quality. At this point in time, however, there is a paucity of evidence describing how the various voucher programs function in different settings, for various reproductive health services. METHODS/DESIGN: Population Council-Nairobi, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, intends to address the lack of evidence around the pros and cons of 'voucher and accreditation' approaches to improving the reproductive health of low income women in five developing countries. In Bangladesh, the activities will be conducted in 11 accredited health facilities where Demand Side Financing program is being implemented and compared with populations drawn from areas served by similar non-accredited facilities. Facility inventories, client exit interviews and service provider interviews will be used to collect comparable data across each facility for assessing readiness and quality of care. In-depth interviews with key stakeholders will be conducted to gain a deeper understanding about the program. A population-based survey will also be carried out in two types of locations: areas where vouchers are distributed and similar locations where vouchers are not distributed. DISCUSSION: This is a quasi-experimental study which will investigate the impact of the voucher approach on improving maternal health behaviors and status and reducing inequities at the population level. We expect a significant increase in the utilization of maternal health care services by the accredited health facilities in the experimental areas compared to the control areas as a direct result of the interventions. If the voucher scheme in Bangladesh is found effective, it may help other countries to adopt this approach for improving utilization of maternity care services for reducing maternal mortality.

Unintended pregnancy among rural women in Bangladesh.

Unintended pregnancies are associated with unsafe abortion and greater risk of maternal morbidity and maternal deaths. In Bangladesh, approximately one-third of pregnancies are unintended. Considering the magnitude of the situation and its consequences, this article explores factors associated with the prevalence of unintended pregnancies in rural Bangladesh with implications for policy intervention. A total of 3300 women were interviewed from 22 sub-districts to collect information on unintended pregnancy related issues. Findings reveal that about 29% of the pregnancies were unintended and the frequency of unintended pregnancy was higher among the older, less educated, higher parity, and poor women. Findings also suggest that unintended pregnancy rate was higher (33%) among women who used contraceptive before their last pregnancy than women (23%) who did not use any contraceptive. The rate of unintended pregnancy also varied, by the types of contraceptive methods used before their last pregnancy. The women who were using traditional methods or temporary modern methods were more likely to experience unintended pregnancy than longer acting method users. The findings underscore the importance of measuring contraceptive discontinuation rates in addition to prevalence of all modern methods. When discussing policy interventions to generate demand for family planning, consideration of differences in method-specific discontinuation rates is important if policy objectives to reduce unintended pregnancies are to be achieved.

Using vouchers to increase access to maternal healthcare in Bangladesh.

The maternal mortality ratio (322) is comparatively high in Bangladesh. The utilization of maternity care provided by trained professionals during and after delivery is alarmingly low, primarily due to lack of knowledge and money. The overall objective of this operations research project was to test the feasibility and effectiveness of introducing financial support (voucher scheme) for poor rural women to improve utilization of antenatal care (ANC), delivery and postnatal check-up (PNC) from trained service providers. A pretest-posttest design was utilized. A total of 436 women were interviewed before and 414 after the intervention to evaluate the impact of interventions. In-depth interviews were conducted with users and non-users of vouchers. Findings show that institutional deliveries have increased from 2% to 18%. Utilization of ANC from trained providers has increased from 42% to 89%. Similarly, utilization of PNC from trained providers has increased from 10% to 60%.