Tracking the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Nicaragua throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The global circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has been extensively documented, yet the dynamics within Central America, particularly Nicaragua, remain underexplored. This study characterizes the genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in Nicaragua from March 2020 through December 2022, utilizing 1064 genomes obtained via next-generation sequencing. These sequences were selected nationwide and analyzed for variant classification, lineage predominance, and phylogenetic diversity. We employed both Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Technologies for all sequencing procedures. Results indicated a temporal and spatial shift in dominant lineages, initially from B.1 and A.2 in early 2020 to various Omicron subvariants towards the study's end. Significant lineage shifts correlated with changes in COVID-19 positivity rates, underscoring the epidemiological impact of variant dissemination. The comparative analysis with regional data underscored the low diversity of circulating lineages in Nicaragua and their delayed introduction compared to other countries in the Central American region. The study also linked specific viral mutations with hospitalization rates, emphasizing the clinical relevance of genomic surveillance. This research advances the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 evolution in Nicaragua and provide valuable information regarding its genetic diversity for public health officials in Central America. We highlight the critical role of ongoing genomic surveillance in identifying emergent lineages and informing public health strategies.

Introduction of New Dengue Virus Lineages of Multiple Serotypes after COVID-19 Pandemic, Nicaragua, 2022.

Major dengue epidemics throughout Nicaragua's history have been dominated by 1 of 4 dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1-4). To examine serotypes during the dengue epidemic in Nicaragua in 2022, we performed real-time genomic surveillance in-country and documented cocirculation of all 4 serotypes. We observed a shift toward co-dominance of DENV-1 and DENV-4 over previously dominant DENV-2. By analyzing 135 new full-length DENV sequences, we found that introductions underlay the resurgence: DENV-1 clustered with viruses from Ecuador in 2014 rather than those previously seen in Nicaragua; DENV-3, which last circulated locally in 2014, grouped instead with Southeast Asia strains expanding into Florida and Cuba in 2022; and new DENV-4 strains clustered within a South America lineage spreading to Florida in 2022. In contrast, DENV-2 persisted from the formerly dominant Nicaragua clade. We posit that the resurgence emerged from travel after the COVID-19 pandemic and that the resultant intensifying hyperendemicity could affect future dengue immunity and severity.

Early-life stress alters chromatin modifications in VTA to prime stress sensitivity.

Early-life stress increases sensitivity to subsequent stress, which has been observed among humans, other animals, at the level of cellular activity, and at the level of gene expression. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying such long-lasting sensitivity are poorly understood. We tested the hypothesis that persistent changes in transcription and transcriptional potential were maintained at the level of the epigenome, through changes in chromatin. We used a combination of bottom-up mass spectrometry, viral-mediated epigenome-editing, behavioral quantification, and RNA-sequencing in a mouse model of early-life stress, focusing on the ventral tegmental area (VTA), a brain region critically implicated in motivation, reward learning, stress response, and mood and drug disorders. We find that early-life stress in mice alters histone dynamics in VTA and that a majority of these modifications are associated with an open chromatin state that would predict active, primed, or poised gene expression, including enriched histone-3 lysine-4 methylation and the H3K4 monomethylase Setd7. Mimicking ELS through over-expression of Setd7 and enrichment of H3K4me1 in VTA recapitulates ELS-induced behavioral and transcriptional hypersensitivity to future stress. These findings enrich our understanding of the epigenetic mechanisms linking early-life environmental experiences to long-term alterations in stress reactivity within the brain's reward circuitry, with implications for understanding and potentially treating mood and anxiety disorders in humans.

Thyroid hormones mediate the impact of early-life stress on ventral tegmental area gene expression and behavior.

Proper thyroid function is essential to the developing brain, including dopamine neuron differentiation, growth, and maintenance. Stress across the lifespan impacts thyroid hormone signaling and anxiety disorders and depression have been associated with thyroid dysfunction (both hypo- and hyper-active). However, less is known about how stress during postnatal development impacts thyroid function and related brain development. Our previous work in mice demonstrated that early-life stress (ELS) transiently impinged on expression of a transcription factor in dopamine neurons, Otx2, shown to be regulated by thyroid hormones. We hypothesized that thyroid hormone signaling may link experience of ELS with transcriptional dysregulation within the dopaminergic midbrain, and ultimately behavior. Here, we find that ELS transiently increases thyroid-stimulating hormone levels (inversely related to thyroid signaling) in both male and female mice at P21, an effect which recovers by adolescence. We next tested whether transient treatment of ELS mice with synthetic thyroid hormone (levothyroxine, LT4) could ameliorate the impact of ELS on sensitivity to future stress, and on expression of genes related to dopamine neuron development and maintenance, thyroid signaling, and plasticity within the ventral tegmental area. Among male mice, but not females, juvenile LT4 treatment prevented hypersensitivity to adult stress. We also found that rescuing developmental deficits in thyroid hormone signaling after ELS restored levels of some genes altered directly by ELS, and prevented alterations in expression of other genes sensitive to the second hit of adult stress. These findings suggest that thyroid signaling mediates the deleterious impact of ELS on VTA development, and that temporary treatment of hypothyroidism after ELS may be sufficient to prevent future stress hypersensitivity.

Transcriptional signatures of early-life stress and antidepressant treatment efficacy.

Individuals with a history of early-life stress (ELS) tend to have an altered course of depression and lower treatment response rates. Research suggests that ELS alters brain development, but the molecular changes in the brain following ELS that may mediate altered antidepressant response have not been systematically studied. Sex and gender also impact the risk of depression and treatment response. Here, we leveraged existing RNA sequencing datasets from 1) blood samples from depressed female- and male-identifying patients treated with escitalopram or desvenlafaxine and assessed for treatment response or failure; 2) the nucleus accumbens (NAc) of female and male mice exposed to ELS and/or adult stress; and 3) the NAc of mice after adult stress, antidepressant treatment with imipramine or ketamine, and assessed for treatment response or failure. We find that transcriptomic signatures of adult stress after a history of ELS correspond with transcriptomic signatures of treatment nonresponse, across species and multiple classes of antidepressants. Transcriptomic correspondence with treatment outcome was stronger among females and weaker among males. We next pharmacologically tested these predictions in our mouse model of early-life and adult social defeat stress and treatment with either chronic escitalopram or acute ketamine. Among female mice, the strongest predictor of behavior was an interaction between ELS and ketamine treatment. Among males, however, early experience and treatment were poor predictors of behavior, mirroring our bioinformatic predictions. These studies provide neurobiological evidence for molecular adaptations in the brain related to sex and ELS that contribute to antidepressant treatment response.

Thyroid hormones mediate the impact of early-life stress on ventral tegmental area gene expression and behavior.

Proper thyroid function is essential to the developing brain, including dopamine neuron differentiation, growth, and maintenance. Stress across the lifespan impacts thyroid hormone signaling and anxiety disorders and depression have been associated with thyroid dysfunction (both hypo- and hyper-active). However, less is known about how stress during postnatal development impacts thyroid function and related brain development. Our previous work in mice demonstrated that early-life stress (ELS) transiently impinged on expression of a transcription factor in dopamine neurons shown to be regulated by thyroid hormones. We hypothesized that thyroid hormone signaling may link experience of ELS with transcriptional dysregulation within the dopaminergic midbrain, and ultimately behavior. Here, we find that ELS transiently increases thyroid-stimulating hormone levels (inversely related to thyroid signaling) in both male and female mice at P21, an effect which recovers by adolescence. We next tested whether transient treatment of ELS mice with synthetic thyroid hormone (levothyroxine, LT4) could ameliorate the impact of ELS on sensitivity to future stress, and on expression of genes related to dopamine neuron development and maintenance, thyroid signaling, and plasticity within the ventral tegmental area. Among male mice, but not females, juvenile LT4 treatment prevented hypersensitivity to adult stress. We also found that rescuing developmental deficits in thyroid hormone signaling after ELS restored levels of some genes altered directly by ELS, and prevented alterations in expression of other genes sensitive to the second hit of adult stress. These findings suggest that thyroid signaling mediates the deleterious impact of ELS on VTA development, and that temporary treatment of hypothyroidism after ELS may be sufficient to prevent future stress hypersensitivity.

Phylodynamics of dengue virus 2 in Nicaragua leading up to the 2019 epidemic reveals a role for lineage turnover.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease posing a significant threat to public health. Dengue virus (DENV) evolution is often characterized by lineage turnover, which, along with ecological and immunological factors, has been linked to changes in dengue phenotype affecting epidemic dynamics. Utilizing epidemiologic and virologic data from long-term population-based studies (the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study and Nicaraguan Dengue Hospital-based Study), we describe a lineage turnover of DENV serotype 2 (DENV-2) prior to a large dengue epidemic in 2019. Prior to this epidemic, Nicaragua had experienced relatively low levels of DENV transmission from 2014 to 2019, a period dominated by chikungunya in 2014/15 and Zika in 2016. RESULTS: Our phylogenetic analyses confirmed that all Nicaraguan DENV-2 isolates from 2018 to 2019 formed their own clade within the Nicaraguan lineage of the Asian/American genotype. The emergence of the new DENV-2 lineage reflects a replacement of the formerly dominant clade presiding from 2005 to 2009, a lineage turnover marked by several shared derived amino acid substitutions throughout the genome. To elucidate evolutionary drivers of lineage turnover, we performed selection pressure analysis and reconstructed the demographic history of DENV-2. We found evidence of adaptive evolution by natural selection at the codon level as well as in branch formation. CONCLUSIONS: The timing of its emergence, along with a statistical signal of adaptive evolution and distinctive amino acid substitutions, the latest in the NS5 gene, suggest that this lineage may have increased fitness relative to the prior dominant DENV-2 strains. This may have contributed to the intensity of the 2019 DENV-2 epidemic, in addition to previously identified immunological factors associated with pre-existing Zika virus immunity.

Reactivation of Early-Life Stress-Sensitive Neuronal Ensembles Contributes to Lifelong Stress Hypersensitivity.

Early-life stress (ELS) is one of the strongest lifetime risk factors for depression, anxiety, suicide, and other psychiatric disorders, particularly after facing additional stressful events later in life. Human and animal studies demonstrate that ELS sensitizes individuals to subsequent stress. However, the neurobiological basis of such stress sensitization remains largely unexplored. We hypothesized that ELS-induced stress sensitization would be detectable at the level of neuronal ensembles, such that cells activated by ELS would be more reactive to adult stress. To test this, we leveraged transgenic mice to genetically tag, track, and manipulate experience-activated neurons. We found that in both male and female mice, ELS-activated neurons within the nucleus accumbens (NAc), and to a lesser extent the medial prefrontal cortex, were preferentially reactivated by adult stress. To test whether reactivation of ELS-activated ensembles in the NAc contributes to stress hypersensitivity, we expressed hM4Dis receptor in control or ELS-activated neurons of pups and chemogenetically inhibited their activity during experience of adult stress. Inhibition of ELS-activated NAc neurons, but not control-tagged neurons, ameliorated social avoidance behavior following chronic social defeat stress in males. These data provide evidence that ELS-induced stress hypersensitivity is encoded at the level of corticolimbic neuronal ensembles.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Early-life stress enhances sensitivity to stress later in life, yet the mechanisms of such stress sensitization are largely unknown. Here, we show that neuronal ensembles in corticolimbic brain regions remain hypersensitive to stress across the life span, and quieting these ensembles during experience of adult stress rescues stress hypersensitivity.

Human-Mosquito Contact: A Missing Link in Our Understanding of Mosquito-Borne Disease Transmission Dynamics.

Despite the critical role that contact between hosts and vectors, through vector bites, plays in driving vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission, transmission risk is primarily studied through the lens of vector density and overlooks host-vector contact dynamics. This review article synthesizes current knowledge of host-vector contact with an emphasis on mosquito bites. It provides a framework including biological and mathematical definitions of host-mosquito contact rate, blood-feeding rate, and per capita biting rates. We describe how contact rates vary and how this variation is influenced by mosquito and vertebrate factors. Our framework challenges a classic assumption that mosquitoes bite at a fixed rate determined by the duration of their gonotrophic cycle. We explore alternative ecological assumptions based on the functional response, blood index, forage ratio, and ideal free distribution within a mechanistic host-vector contact model. We highlight that host-vector contact is a critical parameter that integrates many factors driving disease transmission. A renewed focus on contact dynamics between hosts and vectors will contribute new insights into the mechanisms behind VBD spread and emergence that are sorely lacking. Given the framework for including contact rates as an explicit component of mathematical models of VBD, as well as different methods to study contact rates empirically to move the field forward, researchers should explicitly test contact rate models with empirical studies. Such integrative studies promise to enhance understanding of extrinsic and intrinsic factors affecting host-vector contact rates and thus are critical to understand both the mechanisms driving VBD emergence and guiding their prevention and control.

Metagenomic shotgun sequencing reveals host species as an important driver of virome composition in mosquitoes.

High-throughput nucleic acid sequencing has greatly accelerated the discovery of viruses in the environment. Mosquitoes, because of their public health importance, are among those organisms whose viromes are being intensively characterized. Despite the deluge of sequence information, our understanding of the major drivers influencing the ecology of mosquito viromes remains limited. Using methods to increase the relative proportion of microbial RNA coupled with RNA-seq we characterize RNA viruses and other symbionts of three mosquito species collected along a rural to urban habitat gradient in Thailand. The full factorial study design allows us to explicitly investigate the relative importance of host species and habitat in structuring viral communities. We found that the pattern of virus presence was defined primarily by host species rather than by geographic locations or habitats. Our result suggests that insect-associated viruses display relatively narrow host ranges but are capable of spreading through a mosquito population at the geographical scale of our study. We also detected various single-celled and multicellular microorganisms such as bacteria, alveolates, fungi, and nematodes. Our study emphasizes the importance of including ecological information in viromic studies in order to gain further insights into viral ecology in systems where host specificity is driving both viral ecology and evolution.

Evolution and epidemiologic dynamics of dengue virus in Nicaragua during the emergence of chikungunya and Zika viruses.

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) comprise a significant and ongoing threat to human health, infecting hundreds of millions annually. Three such arboviruses include circumtropical dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, exhibiting continuous emergence primarily via Aedes mosquito vectors. Nicaragua has experienced endemic dengue virus (DENV) transmission involving multiple serotypes since 1985, with chikungunya virus (CHIKV) reported in 2014-2015, followed by Zika virus (ZIKV) first reported in 2016. In order to identify patterns of genetic variation and selection pressures shaping the evolution of co-circulating DENV serotypes in light of the arrival of CHIKV and ZIKV, we employed whole-genome sequencing on an Illumina MiSeq platform of random-amplified total RNA libraries to characterize 42 DENV low-passage isolates, derived from viremic patients in Nicaragua between 2013 and 2016. Our approach also revealed clinically undetected co-infections with CHIKV. Of the three DENV serotypes (1, 2, and 3) co-circulating during our study, we uncovered distinct patterns of evolution using comparative phylogenetic inference. DENV-1 genetic variation was structured into two distinct co-circulating lineages with no evidence of positive selection in the origins of either lineage, suggesting they are equally fit. In contrast, the evolutionary history of DENV-2 was marked by positive selection, and a unique, divergent lineage correlated with high epidemic potential emerged in 2015 to drive an outbreak in 2016. DENV-3 genetic variation remained unstructured into lineages throughout the period of study. Thus, this study reveals insights into evolutionary and epidemiologic trends exhibited during the circulation of multiple arboviruses in Nicaragua.

High Dengue Burden and Circulation of 4 Virus Serotypes among Children with Undifferentiated Fever, Kenya, 2014-2017.

Little is known about the extent and serotypes of dengue viruses circulating in Africa. We evaluated the presence of dengue viremia during 4 years of surveillance (2014-2017) among children with febrile illness in Kenya. Acutely ill febrile children were recruited from 4 clinical sites in western and coastal Kenya, and 1,022 participant samples were tested by using a highly sensitive real-time reverse transcription PCR. A complete case analysis with genomic sequencing and phylogenetic analyses was conducted to characterize the presence of dengue viremia among participants during 2014-2017. Dengue viremia was detected in 41.9% (361/862) of outpatient children who had undifferentiated febrile illness in Kenya. Of children with confirmed dengue viremia, 51.5% (150/291) had malaria parasitemia. All 4 dengue virus serotypes were detected, and phylogenetic analyses showed several viruses from novel lineages. Our results suggests high levels of dengue virus infection among children with undifferentiated febrile illness in Kenya.

Mosquito vector-associated microbiota: Metabarcoding bacteria and eukaryotic symbionts across habitat types in Thailand endemic for dengue and other arthropod-borne diseases.

Vector-borne diseases are a major health burden, yet factors affecting their spread are only partially understood. For example, microbial symbionts can impact mosquito reproduction, survival, and vectorial capacity, and hence affect disease transmission. Nonetheless, current knowledge of mosquito-associated microbial communities is limited. To characterize the bacterial and eukaryotic microbial communities of multiple vector species collected from different habitat types in disease endemic areas, we employed next-generation 454 pyrosequencing of 16S and 18S rRNA amplicon libraries, also known as metabarcoding. We investigated pooled whole adult mosquitoes of three medically important vectors, Aedes aegypti, Ae. albopictus, and Culex quinquefasciatus, collected from different habitats across central Thailand where we previously characterized mosquito diversity. Our results indicate that diversity within the mosquito microbiota is low, with the majority of microbes assigned to one or a few taxa. Two of the most common eukaryotic and bacterial genera recovered (Ascogregarina and Wolbachia, respectively) are known mosquito endosymbionts with potentially parasitic and long evolutionary relationships with their hosts. Patterns of microbial composition and diversity appeared to differ by both vector species and habitat for a given species, although high variability between samples suggests a strong stochastic element to microbiota assembly. In general, our findings suggest that multiple factors, such as habitat condition and mosquito species identity, may influence overall microbial community composition, and thus provide a basis for further investigations into the interactions between vectors, their microbial communities, and human-impacted landscapes that may ultimately affect vector-borne disease risk.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates.

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman's coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics.

Insights into the molecular evolution of Dengue virus type 4 in Puerto Rico over two decades of emergence.

Dengue has emerged globally as a major human health problem since the 1950s and is now the most important arboviral disease of humans, infecting nearly 400 million people annually. While some cases are asymptomatic, others can develop a febrile illness (dengue fever) or even progress to severe and fatal dengue. Dengue is caused by any of 4 closely related but distinct viruses, known as Dengue virus serotype 1 to 4 (DENV-1 to DENV-4) which are maintained in endemic transmission to humans in large urban centers of the tropics by Aedes mosquitoes. Since the early 1960s, Puerto Rico, a major metropolitan center in the Caribbean, has experienced increasingly larger and clinically more severe epidemics following the introduction of all four dengue serotypes. The first dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemic in 1986, and a particularly severe outbreak in 1998 were dominated by novel DENV-4 strains that evolved in Puerto Rico, replacing earlier strains and spreading throughout the region. Sequence characterization of 54 complete DENV-4 genomes and their comparative evolution against 74 previously published viral sequences from the region over several decades shows that DENV-4 strains from these periods were genetically distinct based on unique changes in the envelope and non-structural genes. Their replacement of earlier strains in Puerto Rico progressed rapidly, suggesting that strong natural selection played a role in their fixation. This study confirms that DENVs evolve through rapid lineage turnover driven in part by natural selection and genetic drift.

RNA shotgun metagenomic sequencing of northern California (USA) mosquitoes uncovers viruses, bacteria, and fungi.

Mosquitoes, most often recognized for the microbial agents of disease they may carry, harbor diverse microbial communities that include viruses, bacteria, and fungi, collectively called the microbiota. The composition of the microbiota can directly and indirectly affect disease transmission through microbial interactions that could be revealed by its characterization in natural populations of mosquitoes. Furthermore, the use of shotgun metagenomic sequencing (SMS) approaches could allow the discovery of unknown members of the microbiota. In this study, we use RNA SMS to characterize the microbiota of seven individual mosquitoes (species include Culex pipiens, Culiseta incidens, and Ochlerotatus sierrensis) collected from a variety of habitats in California, USA. Sequencing was performed on the Illumina HiSeq platform and the resulting sequences were quality-checked and assembled into contigs using the A5 pipeline. Sequences related to single stranded RNA viruses of the Bunyaviridae and Rhabdoviridae were uncovered, along with an unclassified genus of double-stranded RNA viruses. Phylogenetic analysis finds that in all three cases, the closest relatives of the identified viral sequences are other mosquito-associated viruses, suggesting widespread host-group specificity among disparate viral taxa. Interestingly, we identified a Narnavirus of fungi, also reported elsewhere in mosquitoes, that potentially demonstrates a nested host-parasite association between virus, fungi, and mosquito. Sequences related to 8 bacterial families and 13 fungal families were found across the seven samples. Bacillus and Escherichia/Shigella were identified in all samples and Wolbachia was identified in all Cx. pipiens samples, while no single fungal genus was found in more than two samples. This study exemplifies the utility of RNA SMS in the characterization of the natural microbiota of mosquitoes and, in particular, the value of identifying all microbes associated with a specific host.

Metagenomic shotgun sequencing of a Bunyavirus in wild-caught Aedes aegypti from Thailand informs the evolutionary and genomic history of the Phleboviruses.

Arthropod-borne viruses significantly impact human health. They span multiple families, all of which include viruses not known to cause disease. Characterizing these representatives could provide insights into the origins of their disease-causing counterparts. Field-caught Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from Nakhon Nayok, Thailand, underwent metagenomic shotgun sequencing to reveal a Bunyavirus closely related to Phasi Charoen (PhaV) virus, isolated in 2009 from Ae. aegypti near Bangkok. Phylogenetic analysis of this virus suggests it is basal to the Phlebovirus genus thus making it ideally positioned phylogenetically for understanding the evolution of these clinically important viruses. Genomic analysis finds that a gene necessary for virulence in vertebrates, but not essential for viral replication in arthropods, is missing. The sequencing of this phylogenetically-notable and genomically-unique Phlebovirus from wild mosquitoes exemplifies the utility and efficacy of metagenomic shotgun sequencing for virus characterization in arthropod vectors of human diseases.

Reconstructing the evolutionary origins and phylogeography of hantaviruses.

Rodents have long been recognized as the principal reservoirs of hantaviruses. However, with the discovery of genetically distinct and phylogenetically divergent lineages of hantaviruses in multiple species of shrews, moles, and insectivorous bats from widely separated geographic regions, a far more complex landscape of hantavirus host distribution, evolution, and phylogeography is emerging. Detailed phylogenetic analyses, based on partial and full-length genomes of previously described rodent-borne hantaviruses and newly detected non-rodent-borne hantaviruses, indicate an Asian origin and support the emerging concept that ancestral non-rodent mammals may have served as the hosts of primordial hantaviruses.

An explosive epidemic of DENV-3 in Cairns, Australia.

From November 2008-May 2009 Cairns Queensland Australia was struck by an explosive epidemic of DENV-3 that exceeded the capacity of highly skilled dengue control team to control it. We describe the environmental, virological and entomological factors associated with this outbreak to better understand the circumstances leading to its occurrence. Patient interviews, serological results and viral sequencing strongly suggest that the imported index case was infected in Kalimantan, Indonesia. A delay in notification of 27 days from importation of the index case until Queensland Health was notified of dengue transmission allowed the virus to amplify and spread unchecked through November 2008. Unseasonably warm weather, with daily mean temperatures exceeding 30 °C, occurred in late November and would have shortened the extrinsic incubation period of the virus and enhanced transmission. Analysis of case movements early in the outbreak indicated that the total incubation period was as low as 9-11 days. This was supported by laboratory vector competence studies that found transmission by Aedes aegypti occurred within 5 days post exposure at 28 °C. Effective vector competence rates calculated from these transmission studies indicate that early transmission contributed to the explosive dengue transmission observed in this outbreak. Collections from BG sentinel traps and double sticky ovitraps showed that large populations of the vector Ae. aegypti occurred in the transmission areas from November - December 2008. Finally, the seasonal movement of people around the Christmas holiday season enhanced the spread of DENV-3. These results suggest that a strain of DENV-3 with an unusually rapid transmission cycle was able to outpace vector control efforts, especially those reliant upon delayed action control such as lethal ovitraps.

Phylogeography and population dynamics of dengue viruses in the Americas.

Changes in Dengue virus (DENV) disease patterns in the Americas over recent decades have been attributed, at least in part, to repeated introduction of DENV strains from other regions, resulting in a shift from hypoendemicity to hyperendemicity. Using newly sequenced DENV-1 and DENV-3 envelope (E) gene isolates from 11 Caribbean countries, along with sequences available on GenBank, we sought to document the population genetic and spatiotemporal transmission histories of the four main invading DENV genotypes within the Americas and investigate factors that influence the rate and intensity of DENV transmission. For all genotypes, there was an initial invasion phase characterized by rapid increases in genetic diversity, which coincided with the first confirmed cases of each genotype in the region. Rapid geographic dispersal occurred upon each genotype's introduction, after which individual lineages were locally maintained, and gene flow was primarily observed among neighboring and nearby countries. There were, however, centers of viral diversity (Barbados, Puerto Rico, Colombia, Suriname, Venezuela, and Brazil) that were repeatedly involved in gene flow with more distant locations. For DENV-1 and DENV-2, we found that a "distance-informed" model, which posits that the intensity of virus movement between locations is inversely proportional to the distance between them, provided a better fit than a model assuming equal rates of movement between all pairs of countries. However, for DENV-3 and DENV-4, the more stochastic "equal rates" model was preferred.