ReAFFIRM: Real-time Assessment of Flash Flood Impacts - a Regional high-resolution Method.

Flash floods evolve rapidly in time, which poses particular challenges to emergency managers. One way to support decision-making is to complement models that estimate the flash flood hazard (e.g. discharge or return period) with tools that directly translate the hazard into the expected socio-economic impacts. This paper presents a method named ReAFFIRM that uses gridded rainfall estimates to assess in real time the flash flood hazard and translate it into the corresponding impacts. In contrast to other studies that mainly focus on individual river catchments, the approach allows for monitoring entire regions at high resolution. The method consists of the following three components: (i) an already existing hazard module that processes the rainfall into values of exceeded return period in the drainage network, (ii) a flood map module that employs the flood maps created within the EU Floods Directive to convert the return periods into the expected flooded areas and flood depths, and (iii) an impact assessment module that combines the flood depths with several layers of socio-economic exposure and vulnerability. Impacts are estimated in three quantitative categories: population in the flooded area, economic losses, and affected critical infrastructures. The performance of ReAFFIRM is shown by applying it in the region of Catalonia (NE Spain) for three significant flash flood events. The results show that the method is capable of identifying areas where the flash floods caused the highest impacts, while some locations affected by less significant impacts were missed. In the locations where the flood extent corresponded to flood observations, the assessments of the population in the flooded area and affected critical infrastructures seemed to perform reasonably well, whereas the economic losses were systematically overestimated. The effects of different sources of uncertainty have been discussed: from the estimation of the hazard to its translation into impacts, which highly depends on the quality of the employed datasets, and in particular on the quality of the rainfall inputs and the comprehensiveness of the flood maps.

Hydrological application of radar rainfall nowcasting in the Netherlands.

Accurate and robust short-term rainfall forecasts (nowcasts) are useful in operational flood forecasting. However, the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall fields make rainfall nowcasting a challenging endeavour. To cope with this variability, nowcasting techniques based on weather radar imagery have been proposed. Here, we employ radar rainfall nowcasting for discharge predictions in three lowland catchments in the Netherlands, with surface areas ranging from 6.5 to 957 km2. Deterministic (Lagrangian persistence) and probabilistic (SBMcast) nowcasting techniques are used to produce short-term rainfall forecasts (up to a few hours ahead), which are used as input for the hydrological model WALRUS. Rainfall forecasts were found to deteriorate with increasing lead time, often due to underestimation. Discharge could be forecasted 25-170 min earlier than without rainfall nowcasting, with the best performance for the largest catchment. When accounting for catchment response time, the best (but most variable) relative performance was found for the smallest catchment. Probabilistic nowcasting effectively accounted for the uncertainty associated with rainfall and discharge forecasts. The uncertainty in rainfall forecasts was found to be largest for the smaller catchments. The uncertainty in how much earlier the discharge could be forecasted (the gain in lead time) ranged from 15 to 50 min.

Building an index of activity of inhabitants from their activity on the residential electrical power line.

In the framework of context awareness within the home, our team is currently assessing the unobtrusive detection of inhabitants' activity through the monitoring of their use and consumption of electricity. The objective is to develop a system for the remote monitoring of large populations of elderly people living independently at home. To be readily deployable on the field, such a system must be minimally intrusive both for the home environment and for the field professionals (paramedics and social workers) visiting the patients at home. We carried out two successive field experiments to evaluate and to improve our system designed to deliver a single index of daily activity. The first experiment involved 13 elderly persons over a nine-month period (84,240 h data recorded) and the second one 12 elderly over six months (51,840 h). We evaluated both the relevance of the index and the acceptability of the system as a whole. We discovered that electrical activity is a kind of unique "signature" of each person's activity. Moreover, this profile provides unexpected information on the health status of the subject. We confirmed that the system was unobtrusive and well accepted both by the subjects and by the professionals involved. Our unique index of activity, and its trend over time, can provide timely information to the professionals on the patient.

Non-invasive monitoring of the activities of daily living of elderly people at home--a pilot study of the usage of domestic appliances.

We conducted a feasibility study of a system for non-invasive monitoring of subjects at home. Electrical activity was recorded from room lights and from electrical domestic appliances; this was translated into the probability of physical activity or a particular Activity of Daily Living (ADL). Thirteen volunteer subjects were monitored for a period of 6.4 months (range 3-8). The mean age of the subjects was 80 years and they all lived alone at home; one had moderate Alzheimer's disease. A one-week validation was carried out to ascertain whether the recorded activity actually occurred. The results showed that daily and nocturnal activity could be well differentiated. The probability of having eaten, taken a bath and going to the toilet could be calculated each day. Eating was the most accurately measured ADL; toileting and bathing results were less accurate. The system appears to be a promising component of home telecare.