Cardiometabolic Co-morbidity Burden and Circulating Biomarkers in Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease in the ISCHEMIA Trials.

Cardiometabolic co-morbidities, diabetes (DM), hypertension (HTN), and obesity contribute to cardiovascular disease. Circulating biomarkers facilitate prognostication for patients with cardiovascular disease. We explored the relation between cardiometabolic co-morbidity burden in patients with chronic coronary disease and biomarkers of myocardial stretch, injury, inflammation, and platelet activity. We analyzed participants from the International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches (ISCHEMIA) trials biorepository with plasma biomarkers (N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, soluble CD40 ligand, and growth differentiation factor-15) and clinical risk factors (hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c], systolic blood pressure [SBP], and body mass index [BMI]) at baseline. We defined cardiometabolic co-morbidities as DM, HTN, and obesity at baseline. Co-morbidity burden is characterized by the number and severity of co-morbidities. Controlled co-morbidities were defined as HbA1c <7% for those with DM, SBP <130 mm Hg for those with HTN, and BMI <30 kg/m2. Severely uncontrolled was defined as HbA1c ≥8%, SBP ≥160 mm Hg, and BMI ≥35 kg/m2. We performed linear regression analyses to examine the association between co-morbidity burden and log-transformed biomarker levels, adjusting for age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate controlled for hemodialysis, and left ventricular ejection fraction. A total of 752 participants (mean age 66 years, 19% women, 84% White) were included in this analysis. Self-reported Black race, current smokers, history of myocardial infarction, and heart failure had a greater cardiometabolic co-morbidity burden. The presence of ≥1 severely uncontrolled co-morbidity was associated with significantly higher baseline levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and growth differentiation factor-15 than participants with no co-morbidities. In conclusion, increasing cardiometabolic co-morbidity burden in patients with chronic coronary disease is associated with higher levels of circulating biomarkers of myocardial injury and inflammation.

Heparin Dose Intensity and Organ Support-Free Days in Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19.

Background: Clinical trials suggest that therapeutic-dose heparin may prevent critical illness and vascular complications due to COVID-19, but knowledge gaps exist regarding the efficacy of therapeutic heparin including its comparative effect relative to intermediate-dose anticoagulation. Objectives: The authors performed 2 complementary secondary analyses of a completed randomized clinical trial: 1) a prespecified per-protocol analysis; and 2) an exploratory dose-based analysis to compare the effect of therapeutic-dose heparin with low- and intermediate-dose heparin. Methods: Patients who received initial anticoagulation dosed consistently with randomization were included. The primary outcome was organ support-free days (OSFDs), a combination of in-hospital death and days free of organ support through day 21. Results: Among 2,860 participants, 1,761 (92.8%) noncritically ill and 857 (89.1%) critically ill patients were treated per-protocol. Among noncritically ill per-protocol patients, the posterior probability that therapeutic-dose heparin improved OSFDs as compared with usual care was 99.3% (median adjusted OR: 1.36; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.07-1.74). Therapeutic heparin had a high posterior probability of efficacy relative to both low- (94.6%; adjusted OR: 1.26; 95% CrI: 0.95-1.64) and intermediate- (99.8%; adjusted OR: 1.80; 95% CrI: 1.22-2.62) dose thromboprophylaxis. Among critically ill per-protocol patients, the posterior probability that therapeutic heparin improved outcomes was low. Conclusions: Among noncritically ill patients hospitalized for COVID-19 who were randomized to and initially received therapeutic-dose anticoagulation, heparin, compared with usual care, was associated with improved OSFDs, a combination of in-hospital death and days free of organ support. Therapeutic heparin appeared superior to both low- and intermediate-dose thromboprophylaxis.

A comparison of computational algorithms for the Bayesian analysis of clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials are increasingly using Bayesian methods for their design and analysis. Inference in Bayesian trials typically uses simulation-based approaches such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Markov Chain Monte Carlo has high computational cost and can be complex to implement. The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations algorithm provides approximate Bayesian inference without the need for computationally complex simulations, making it more efficient than Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The practical properties of Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations compared to Markov Chain Monte Carlo have not been considered for clinical trials. Using data from a published clinical trial, we aim to investigate whether Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations is a feasible and accurate alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo and provide practical guidance for trialists interested in Bayesian trial design. METHODS: Data from an international Bayesian multi-platform adaptive trial that compared therapeutic-dose anticoagulation with heparin to usual care in non-critically ill patients hospitalized for COVID-19 were used to fit Bayesian hierarchical generalized mixed models. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations was compared to two Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, implemented in the software JAGS and stan, using packages available in the statistical software R. Seven outcomes were analysed: organ-support free days (an ordinal outcome), five binary outcomes related to survival and length of hospital stay, and a time-to-event outcome. The posterior distributions for the treatment and sex effects and the variances for the hierarchical effects of age, site and time period were obtained. We summarized these posteriors by calculating the mean, standard deviations and the 95% equitailed credible intervals and presenting the results graphically. The computation time for each algorithm was recorded. RESULTS: The average overlap of the 95% credible interval for the treatment and sex effects estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations was 96% and 97.6% compared with stan, respectively. The graphical posterior densities for these effects overlapped for all three algorithms. The posterior mean for the variance of the hierarchical effects of age, site and time estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations are within the 95% credible interval estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo but the average overlap of the credible interval is lower, 77%, 85.6% and 91.3%, respectively, for Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations compared to stan. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations and stan were easily implemented in clear, well-established packages in R, while JAGS required the direct specification of the model. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations was between 85 and 269 times faster than stan and 26 and 1852 times faster than JAGS. CONCLUSION: Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations could reduce the computational complexity of Bayesian analysis in clinical trials as it is easy to implement in R, substantially faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in JAGS and stan, and provides near identical approximations to the posterior distributions for the treatment effect. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations was less accurate when estimating the posterior distribution for the variance of hierarchical effects, particularly for the proportional odds model, and future work should determine if the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations algorithm can be adjusted to improve this estimation.

The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio associates with markers of Alzheimer's disease pathology in cognitively unimpaired elderly people.

BACKGROUND: An elevated neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in blood has been associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, an elevated NLR has also been implicated in many other conditions that are risk factors for AD, prompting investigation into whether the NLR is directly linked with AD pathology or a result of underlying comorbidities. Herein, we explored the relationship between the NLR and AD biomarkers in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of cognitively unimpaired (CU) subjects. Adjusting for sociodemographics, APOE4, and common comorbidities, we investigated these associations in two cohorts: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the M.J. de Leon CSF repository at NYU. Specifically, we examined associations between the NLR and cross-sectional measures of amyloid-ß42 (Aß42), total tau (t-tau), and phosphorylated tau181 (p-tau), as well as the trajectories of these CSF measures obtained longitudinally. RESULTS: A total of 111 ADNI and 190 NYU participants classified as CU with available NLR, CSF, and covariate data were included. Compared to NYU, ADNI participants were older (73.79 vs. 61.53, p < 0.001), had a higher proportion of males (49.5% vs. 36.8%, p = 0.042), higher BMIs (27.94 vs. 25.79, p < 0.001), higher prevalence of hypertensive history (47.7% vs. 16.3%, p < 0.001), and a greater percentage of Aß-positivity (34.2% vs. 20.0%, p = 0.009). In the ADNI cohort, we found cross-sectional associations between the NLR and CSF Aß42 (ß = -12.193, p = 0.021), but not t-tau or p-tau. In the NYU cohort, we found cross-sectional associations between the NLR and CSF t-tau (ß = 26.812, p = 0.019) and p-tau (ß = 3.441, p = 0.015), but not Aß42. In the NYU cohort alone, subjects classified as Aß + (n = 38) displayed a stronger association between the NLR and t-tau (ß = 100.476, p = 0.037) compared to Aß- subjects or the non-stratified cohort. In both cohorts, the same associations observed in the cross-sectional analyses were observed after incorporating longitudinal CSF data. CONCLUSIONS: We report associations between the NLR and Aß42 in the older ADNI cohort, and between the NLR and t-tau and p-tau in the younger NYU cohort. Associations persisted after adjusting for comorbidities, suggesting a direct link between the NLR and AD. However, changes in associations between the NLR and specific AD biomarkers may occur as part of immunosenescence.

Predicting Pulmonary Embolism in Total Joint Arthroplasty Patients A Pilot Study.

Postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common and costly complication following total joint arthroplasty (TJA). Development of a refined thrombophilic screening panel will better equip clinicians to identify patients at high-est risk for developing VTEs. In this pilot study, 62 high-risk TJA recipients who had developed pulmonary emboli (PE) within 90-days of surgery were eligible to participate. Of these patients, 14 were enrolled and subsequently adminis-tered a pre-determined panel of 18 hematologic tests with the aim of identifying markers that are consistently elevated or deficient in patients developing PE. A separate cohort of seven high-risk TJA recipients who did not report a symp-tomatic VTE within 90-days of surgery were then enrolled and Factor VIII and lipoprotein(a) levels were assessed. The most common aberrance was noted in 10 patients (71.4%) who had elevated levels of Factor VIII followed by five patients (35.7%) who had elevated levels of lipoprotein(a). Factor VIII was significantly prevalent (p < 0.001) while lipoprotein(a) failed to achieve statistical significance (p = 0.0708). Of the patients who were within normal limits of Factor VIII, three-fourths were "high-normal" with Fac-tor VIII levels within 5% of the upper limit of normal. This study demonstrates the potential utility of this hematologic panel as part of a perioperative screening protocol aimed at identifying patients at risk for developing VTEs. However, future larger scale studies assessing the capabilities and limitations of our findings are warranted.

The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio associates with markers of Alzheimer's disease pathology in cognitively unimpaired elderly people.

Background: An elevated neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in blood has been associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, an elevated NLR has also been implicated in many other conditions that are risk factors for AD, prompting investigation into whether the NLR is directly linked with AD pathology or a result of underlying comorbidities. Herein, we explored the relationship between the NLR and AD biomarkers in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of cognitively unimpaired (CU) subjects. Adjusting for sociodemographics, APOE4, and common comorbidities, we investigated these associations in two cohorts: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the M.J. de Leon CSF repository at NYU. Specifically, we examined associations between the NLR and cross-sectional measures of amyloid-ß42 (Aß42), total tau (t-tau), and phosphorylated tau181 (p-tau), as well as the trajectories of these CSF measures obtained longitudinally. Results: A total of 111 ADNI and 190 NYU participants classified as CU with available NLR, CSF, and covariate data were included. Compared to NYU, ADNI participants were older (73.79 vs. 61.53, p < 0.001), had a higher proportion of males (49.5% vs. 36.8%, p = 0.042), higher BMIs (27.94 vs. 25.79, p < 0.001), higher prevalence of hypertensive history (47.7% vs. 16.3%, p < 0.001), and a greater percentage of Aß-positivity (34.2% vs. 20.0%, p = 0.009). In the ADNI cohort, we found cross-sectional associations between the NLR and CSF Aß42 (ß=-12.193, p = 0.021), but not t-tau or p-tau. In the NYU cohort, we found cross-sectional associations between the NLR and CSF t-tau (ß = 26.812, p = 0.019) and p-tau (ß = 3.441, p = 0.015), but not Aß42. In the NYU cohort alone, subjects classified as Aß+ (n = 38) displayed a stronger association between the NLR and t-tau (ß = 100.476, p = 0.037) compared to Aß- subjects or the non-stratified cohort. In both cohorts, the same associations observed in the cross-sectional analyses were observed after incorporating longitudinal CSF data. Conclusions: We report associations between the NLR and Aß42 in the older ADNI cohort, and between the NLR and t-tau and p-tau181 in the younger NYU cohort. Associations persisted after adjusting for comorbidities, suggesting a direct link between the NLR and AD. However, changes in associations between the NLR and specific AD biomarkers may occur as part of immunosenescence.

Sex Differences in Revascularization, Treatment Goals, and Outcomes of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease: Insights From the ISCHEMIA Trial.

BACKGROUND: Women with chronic coronary disease are generally older than men and have more comorbidities but less atherosclerosis. We explored sex differences in revascularization, guideline-directed medical therapy, and outcomes among patients with chronic coronary disease with ischemia on stress testing, with and without invasive management. METHODS AND RESULTS: The ISCHEMIA (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches) trial randomized patients with moderate or severe ischemia to invasive management with angiography, revascularization, and guideline-directed medical therapy, or initial conservative management with guideline-directed medical therapy alone. We evaluated the primary outcome (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest) and other end points, by sex, in 1168 (22.6%) women and 4011 (77.4%) men. Invasive group catheterization rates were similar, with less revascularization among women (73.4% of invasive-assigned women revascularized versus 81.2% of invasive-assigned men; P<0.001). Women had less coronary artery disease: multivessel in 60.0% of invasive-assigned women and 74.8% of invasive-assigned men, and no ≥50% stenosis in 12.3% versus 4.5% (P<0.001). In the conservative group, 4-year catheterization rates were 26.3% of women versus 25.6% of men (P=0.72). Guideline-directed medical therapy use was lower among women with fewer risk factor goals attained. There were no sex differences in the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for women versus men, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.77-1.13]; P=0.47) or the major secondary outcome of cardiovascular death/myocardial infarction (adjusted HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.76-1.14]; P=0.49), with no significant sex-by-treatment-group interactions. CONCLUSIONS: Women had less extensive coronary artery disease and, therefore, lower revascularization rates in the invasive group. Despite lower risk factor goal attainment, women with chronic coronary disease experienced similar risk-adjusted outcomes to men in the ISCHEMIA trial. REGISTRATION: URL: http://wwwclinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01471522.

Burden of cardiometabolic risk factors and vascular health.

BACKGROUND: Cardiometabolic risk factors diabetes, obesity, and hypertension are highly prevalent and contribute to increased cardiovascular disease (CVD). Endothelial dysfunction precedes CVD development. The current study aimed to investigate the EC transcriptome among individuals with varying degree of cardiometabolic risk. METHODS: Adult participants without CVD and various degrees of cardiometabolic risk factor burden (hypertension, diabetes, obesity) were included. Participants underwent brachial vein EC harvesting followed by RNA sequencing. To evaluate the association between cardiometabolic comorbidity burden and outcome transcripts we performed linear regression with multivariable models, adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: A total of 18 individuals were included in the present analysis (mean age 47 ± 14, 44% female, and 61% White adults). Endothelial cell RNA sequencing revealed 588 differentially expressed transcripts (p-adj <0.05) with excellent discrimination in unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis. Gene ontology enrichment analysis revealed upregulated pathways associated with T-cell activation (NES = 2.22, p<0.001), leukocyte differentiation (NES= 2.16, p<0.001), leukocyte migration (NES= 2.12, p<0.001), regulation of cell-cell adhesion (NES= 1.91, p=0.006). Downregulated pathways of interest included endothelial cell proliferation (NES= -1.68, p=0.03) and response to interleukin-1 (NES= -1.61, p=0.04). Upregulated genes included VCAM1, CEACAM1, ADAM 17, and CD99L2, all with a log-2-fold change >3 and p-adj <0.05. These genes demonstrated a graded increase in mean normalized counts with increasing number of risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate a proinflammatory and pro-adhesive EC transcriptome associated with increased cardiometabolic risk factor burden offering insight into a potential mechanism linking these risk factors with the development of CVD.

Platelet RNA Biomarker of Ticagrelor-Responsive Genes Is Associated With Platelet Function and Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients with the optimal risk:benefit for ticagrelor is challenging. The aim was to identify ticagrelor-responsive platelet transcripts as biomarkers of platelet function and cardiovascular risk. METHODS: Healthy volunteers (n=58, discovery; n=49, validation) were exposed to 4 weeks of ticagrelor with platelet RNA data, platelet function, and self-reported bleeding measured pre-/post-ticagrelor. RNA sequencing was used to discover platelet genes affected by ticagrelor, and a subset of the most informative was summarized into a composite score and tested for validation. This score was further analyzed (1) in CD34+ megakaryocytes exposed to an P2Y12 inhibitor in vitro, (2) with baseline platelet function in healthy controls, (3) in peripheral artery disease patients (n=139) versus patient controls (n=30) without atherosclerosis, and (4) in patients with peripheral artery disease for correlation with atherosclerosis severity and risk of incident major adverse cardiovascular and limb events. RESULTS: Ticagrelor exposure differentially expressed 3409 platelet transcripts. Of these, 111 were prioritized to calculate a Ticagrelor Exposure Signature score, which ticagrelor reproducibly increased in discovery and validation cohorts. Ticagrelor's effects on platelets transcripts positively correlated with effects of P2Y12 inhibition in primary megakaryocytes. In healthy controls, higher baseline scores correlated with lower baseline platelet function and with minor bleeding while receiving ticagrelor. In patients, lower scores independently associated with both the presence and extent of atherosclerosis and incident ischemic events. CONCLUSIONS: Ticagrelor-responsive platelet transcripts are a biomarker for platelet function and cardiovascular risk and may have clinical utility for selecting patients with optimal risk:benefit for ticagrelor use.

Acute myocardial infarction in von Willebrand disease: characteristics and outcomes.

Background: Von Willebrand disease (VWD) is the most common inherited bleeding disorder. As treatments have improved prognosis of VWD, age-related diseases, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), have become more prevalent. The treatment of AMI includes antithrombotic therapies, which increase the risk of bleeding. Current guidelines suggest weighing risks/benefits of antithrombotic therapy in patients with VWD. However, data to inform these discussions are lacking. Objective: To characterize outcomes of patients with VWD after AMI. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study utilizing the National Readmissions Database of patients with and without VWD admitted with AMI in 2017 and 2018. Primary outcomes were 90-day any-cause, bleeding-related, and arterial thrombosis-related readmissions. Case-control matching was performed for age, sex (male or female), ST-elevation myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease. Time-to-event analysis was performed after matching using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: A total of 136 patients with VWD were matched with 3400 controls without VWD. At 90 days, there were no differences in all-cause (10.7% vs 11.5%; P = 1.00), arterial thrombosis (1.9% vs 3.1%; P = .77), and bleeding (1.9% vs 0.4%; P = .083) readmission in patients with VWD. VWD was associated with increased risk of 90-day bleeding (hazard ratio [HR], 4.75; 95% CI, 1.05-21.66) but not all-cause (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.50-1.67) or arterial thrombosis (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.39-2.19) readmission. Conclusion: Among patients admitted with AMI, VWD was associated with higher risk of 90-day readmission for bleeding but not any-cause and arterial thrombosis-related readmissions. Further studies are needed to balance bleeding and thrombotic risks post-AMI in patients with VWD.

Effect of therapeutic-dose heparin on severe acute kidney injury and death in noncritically ill patients hospitalized for COVID-19: a prespecified secondary analysis of the ACTIV4a and ATTACC randomized trial.

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with COVID-19 is partly mediated by thromboinflammation. In noncritically ill patients with COVID-19, therapeutic-dose anticoagulation with heparin increased the probability of survival to hospital discharge with reduced use of cardiovascular or respiratory organ support. Objectives: We investigated whether therapeutic-dose heparin reduces the incidence of AKI or death in noncritically ill patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Methods: We report a prespecified secondary analysis of the ACTIV4a and ATTACC open-label, multiplatform randomized trial of therapeutic-dose heparin vs usual-care pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis on the incidence of severe AKI (≥2-fold increase in serum creatinine or initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KDIGO stage 2 or 3) or all-cause mortality in noncritically ill patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Bayesian statistical models were adjusted for age, sex, D-dimer, enrollment period, country, site, and platform. Results: Among 1922 enrolled, 23 were excluded due to pre-existing end stage kidney disease and 205 were missing baseline or follow-up creatinine measurements. Severe AKI or death occurred in 4.4% participants assigned to therapeutic-dose heparin and 5.5% assigned to thromboprophylaxis (adjusted relative risk [aRR]: 0.72; 95% credible interval (CrI): 0.47, 1.10); the posterior probability of superiority for therapeutic-dose heparin (relative risk < 1.0) was 93.6%. Therapeutic-dose heparin was associated with a 97.7% probability of superiority to reduce the composite of stage 3 AKI or death (3.1% vs 4.6%; aRR: 0.64; 95% CrI: 0.40, 0.99) compared to thromboprophylaxis. Conclusion: Therapeutic-dose heparin was associated with a high probability of superiority to reduce the incidence of in-hospital severe AKI or death in patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

Existing Nongated CT Coronary Calcium Predicts Operative Risk in Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgeries (ENCORES).

BACKGROUND: Preoperative cardiovascular risk stratification before noncardiac surgery is a common clinical challenge. Coronary artery calcium scores from ECG-gated chest computed tomography (CT) imaging are associated with perioperative events. At the time of preoperative evaluation, many patients will not have had ECG-gated CT imaging, but will have had nongated chest CT studies performed for a variety of noncardiac indications. We evaluated relationships between coronary calcium severity estimated from previous nongated chest CT imaging and perioperative major clinical events (MCE) after noncardiac surgery. METHODS: We retrospectively identified consecutive adults age ≥45 years who underwent in-hospital, major noncardiac surgery from 2016 to 2020 at a large academic health system composed of 4 acute care centers. All patients had nongated (contrast or noncontrast) chest CT imaging performed within 1 year before surgery. Coronary calcium in each vessel was retrospectively graded from absent to severe using a 0 to 3 scale (absent, mild, moderate, severe) by physicians blinded to clinical data. The estimated coronary calcium burden (ECCB) was computed as the sum of scores for each coronary artery (0 to 9 scale). A Revised Cardiac Risk Index was calculated for each patient. Perioperative MCE was defined as all-cause death or myocardial infarction within 30 days of surgery. RESULTS: A total of 2554 patients (median age, 68 years; 49.7% women; median Revised Cardiac Risk Index, 1) were included. The median time interval from nongated chest CT imaging to noncardiac surgery was 15 days (interquartile range, 3-106 days). The median ECCB was 1 (interquartile range, 0-3). Perioperative MCE occurred in 136 (5.2%) patients. Higher ECCB values were associated with stepwise increases in perioperative MCE (0: 2.9%, 1-2: 3.7%, 3-5: 8.0%; 6-9: 12.6%, P<0.001). Addition of ECCB to a model with the Revised Cardiac Risk Index improved the C-statistic for MCE (from 0.675 to 0.712, P=0.018), with a net reclassification improvement of 0.428 (95% CI, 0.254-0.601, P<0.0001). An ECCB ≥3 was associated with 2-fold higher adjusted odds of MCE versus an ECCB <3 (adjusted odds ratio, 2.11 [95% CI, 1.42-3.12]). CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence and severity of coronary calcium obtained from existing nongated chest CT imaging improve preoperative clinical risk stratification before noncardiac surgery.

Biomarkers and cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary disease in the ISCHEMIA Trials.

IMPORTANCE: Biomarkers may improve prediction of cardiovascular events for patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), but their importance in addition to clinical tests of inducible ischemia and CAD severity is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prognostic value of multiple biomarkers in stable outpatients with obstructive CAD and moderate or severe inducible ischemia. DESIGN AND SETTING: The ISCHEMIA and ISCHEMIA CKD trials randomized 5,956 participants with CAD to invasive or conservative management from July 2012 to January 2018; 1,064 participated in the biorepository. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. Secondary outcome was cardiovascular death or MI. Improvements in prediction were assessed by cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) for an interquartile increase in each biomarker, controlling for other biomarkers, in a base clinical model of risk factors, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and ischemia severity. Secondary analyses were performed among patients in whom core-lab confirmed severity of CAD was ascertained by computed cardiac tomographic angiography (CCTA). EXPOSURES: Baseline levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), high sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), lipoprotein a (Lp[a]), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), Cystatin C, soluble CD 40 ligand (sCD40L), myeloperoxidase (MPO), and matrix metalloproteinase 3 (MMP3). RESULTS: Among 757 biorepository participants, median (IQR) follow-up was 3 (2-5) years, age was 67 (61-72) years, and 144 (19%) were female; 508 had severity of CAD by CCTA available. In an adjusted multimarker model with hsTnT, GDF-15, NT-proBNP and sCD40L, the adjusted HR for the primary outcome per interquartile increase in each biomarker was 1.58 (95% CI 1.22, 2.205), 1.60 (95% CI 1.16, 2.20), 1.61 (95% 1.22, 2.14), and 1.46 (95% 1.12, 1.90), respectively. The adjusted multimarker model also improved prediction compared with the clinical model, increasing the AUC from 0.710 to 0.792 (P < .01) and 0.714 to 0.783 (P < .01) for the primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. Similar findings were observed after adjusting for core-lab confirmed atherosclerosis severity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among ISCHEMIA biorepository participants, biomarkers of myocyte injury/distension, inflammation, and platelet activity improved cardiovascular event prediction in addition to risk factors, LVEF, and assessments of ischemia and atherosclerosis severity. These biomarkers may improve risk stratification for patients with stable CAD.