Age-specific cancer mortality in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic, March-December 2020.

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer death rates in 2020 in the U.S. We estimated whether there were larger than expected changes in cancer mortality rates during March-December 2020 after accounting for temporal and seasonal patterns using data from January 2011-February 2020 by cancer type and age. METHODS: We obtained death counts and underlying cause of death by cancer type, month/year (2011-2020), and age group from the National Center for Health Statistics and population estimates from the Census Bureau. Poisson regression was used to test for significant changes in cancer death rates from March-December 2020 compared to prior years. RESULTS: After accounting for temporal trends and seasonal patterns, total cancer death rates were significantly lower than expected during March-December 2020 among 55-64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, but not in other age groups. Cancer death rates were 2% lower than expected from March-June among 55-64-year-olds, and 2-3% lower from March-July and December among ≥75-year-olds. Among ≥75-year-olds, colorectal cancer death rates were lower in March-June (RRs 0.94-0.96; p<0.05); however, lung cancer death rates were 5% lower across each month (all RRs 0.95, p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In the U.S., cancer death rates based on the underlying cause of death were broadly similar to expected rates during March-December 2020. However, cancer death rates were lower than expected among 55-64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, likely due to COVID-19 as a competing cause of death. IMPACT: Cancer mortality rates from 2020 should be interpreted with caution. .

Genomic characterization of cervical lymph node metastases in papillary thyroid carcinoma following the Chornobyl accident.

Childhood radioactive iodine exposure from the Chornobyl accident increased papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) risk. While cervical lymph node metastases (cLNM) are well-recognized in pediatric PTC, the PTC metastatic process and potential radiation association are poorly understood. Here, we analyze cLNM occurrence among 428 PTC with genomic landscape analyses and known drivers (131I-exposed = 349, unexposed = 79; mean age = 27.9 years). We show that cLNM are more frequent in PTC with fusion (55%) versus mutation (30%) drivers, although the proportion varies by specific driver gene (RET-fusion = 71%, BRAF-mutation = 38%, RAS-mutation = 5%). cLNM frequency is not associated with other characteristics, including radiation dose. cLNM molecular profiling (N = 47) demonstrates 100% driver concordance with matched primary PTCs and highly concordant mutational spectra. Transcriptome analysis reveals 17 differentially expressed genes, particularly in the HOXC cluster and BRINP3; the strongest differentially expressed microRNA also is near HOXC10. Our findings underscore the critical role of driver alterations and provide promising candidates for elucidating the biological underpinnings of PTC cLNM.

Long-term cardiovascular disease risk after anthracycline and trastuzumab treatments in U.S. breast cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Although breast cancer survivors are at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) from treatment late effects, evidence to inform long-term and age-specific cardiovascular surveillance recommendations is lacking. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 10,211 women diagnosed with first primary unilateral breast cancer in Kaiser Permanente Washington or Colorado (aged 20+, survived ≥1 year). We estimated multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for associations between initial chemotherapy regimen type (anthracycline and/or trastuzumab, other chemotherapies, no chemotherapy [reference]) and CVD risk, adjusted for patient characteristics, other treatments, and CVD risk factors. Cumulative incidence was calculated considering competing events. RESULTS: After 5.79 median years, 14.67% of women developed CVD (cardiomyopathy/heart failure (CM/HF), ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke). Women treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab had a higher risk of CVD compared with no chemotherapy (aHR=1.53,95%CI=1.31-1.79), persisting 5+years post-diagnosis (aHR5-<10 years=1.85,95%CI=1.44-2.39;aHR10+ years=1.83,95%CI=1.34-2.49). CM/HF risks were elevated among women treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab compared with no chemotherapy, especially for ages<65 (aHR20-54years=2.97,95%CI=1.72-5.12;aHR55-64years=2.21,95%CI=1.52-3.21), differing for older women (aHR65+years=1.32,95%CI=0.97-1.78), and 5+years post-diagnosis (aHR5-<10years=1.89,95%CI=1.35-2.64;aHR10+years=2.21,95%CI=1.52-3.20). Anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab receipt was associated with increased IHD risks after 5+years (aHR5-<10years=1.51,95%CI=1.06-2.14;aHR10+years=1.86,95%CI=1.18-2.93) with no clear age effects, and stroke risk (aHR=1.33,95%CI=1.05-1.69) which did not vary by time or age. There was some evidence of long-term CM/HF and IHD risks with other chemotherapies. Among women aged<65 treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab, up to 16% developed CVD by 10-years (20-54=6.91%;55-64=16.00%), driven by CM/HF (20-54=3.90%;55-64=9.78%). CONCLUSIONS: We found increased long-term risks of CM/HF and IHD among breast cancer survivors treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab, and increased CM/HF risk among women aged<65.

Second primary cancer risks according to race and ethnicity among U.S. breast cancer survivors.

Breast cancer survivors have an increased risk of developing second primary cancers, yet risks by race and ethnicity have not been comprehensively described. We evaluated second primary cancer risks among 717,335 women diagnosed with first primary breast cancer (aged 20-84 years and survived ≥1-year) in the SEER registries using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs; observed/expected). SIRs were estimated by race and ethnicity compared with the racial- and ethnic-matched general population, and further stratified by clinical characteristics of the index breast cancer. Poisson regression was used to test for heterogeneity by race and ethnicity. SIRs for second primary cancer differed by race and ethnicity with the highest risks observed among non-Hispanic/Latina Asian American, Native Hawaiian, or other Pacific Islander (AANHPI), non-Hispanic/Latina Black (Black), and Hispanic/Latina (Latina) survivors and attenuated risk among non-Hispanic/Latina White (White) survivors (SIRAANHPI = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.44-1.54; SIRBlack = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.37-1.45; SIRLatina = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.41-1.49; SIRWhite = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.08-1.10; p-heterogeneity<.001). SIRs were particularly elevated among AANHPI, Black, and Latina survivors diagnosed with an index breast cancer before age 50 (SIRs range = 1.88-2.19) or with estrogen receptor-negative tumors (SIRs range = 1.60-1.94). Heterogeneity by race and ethnicity was observed for 16/27 site-specific second cancers (all p-heterogeneity's < .05) with markedly elevated risks among AANHPI, Black, and Latina survivors for acute myeloid and acute non-lymphocytic leukemia (SIRs range = 2.68-3.15) and cancers of the contralateral breast (SIRs range = 2.60-3.01) and salivary gland (SIRs range = 2.03-3.96). We observed striking racial and ethnic differences in second cancer risk among breast cancer survivors. Additional research is needed to inform targeted approaches for early detection strategies and treatment to reduce these racial and ethnic disparities.

Disentangling the relationships of body mass index and circulating sex hormone concentrations in mammographic density using Mendelian randomization.

PURPOSE: Mammographic density phenotypes, adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI), are strong predictors of breast cancer risk. BMI is associated with mammographic density measures, but the role of circulating sex hormone concentrations is less clear. We investigated the relationship between BMI, circulating sex hormone concentrations, and mammographic density phenotypes using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: We applied two-sample MR approaches to assess the association between genetically predicted circulating concentrations of sex hormones [estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG)], BMI, and mammographic density phenotypes (dense and non-dense area). We created instrumental variables from large European ancestry-based genome-wide association studies and applied estimates to mammographic density phenotypes in up to 14,000 women of European ancestry. We performed analyses overall and by menopausal status. RESULTS: Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with non-dense area (IVW: ß = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.58, 2.00; p = 9.57 × 10-63) and inversely associated with dense area (IVW: ß = - 0.37; 95% CI = - 0.51,- 0.23; p = 4.7 × 10-7). We observed weak evidence for an association of circulating sex hormone concentrations with mammographic density phenotypes, specifically inverse associations between genetically predicted testosterone concentration and dense area (ß = - 0.22; 95% CI = - 0.38, - 0.053; p = 0.009) and between genetically predicted estradiol concentration and non-dense area (ß = - 3.32; 95% CI = - 5.83, - 0.82; p = 0.009), although results were not consistent across a range of MR approaches. CONCLUSION: Our findings support a positive causal association between BMI and mammographic non-dense area and an inverse association between BMI and dense area. Evidence was weaker and inconsistent for a causal effect of circulating sex hormone concentrations on mammographic density phenotypes. Based on our findings, associations between circulating sex hormone concentrations and mammographic density phenotypes are weak at best.

Polygenic risk scores, radiation treatment exposures and subsequent cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors.

Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for subsequent cancers attributable to the late effects of radiotherapy and other treatment exposures; thus, further understanding of the impact of genetic predisposition on risk is needed. Combining genotype data for 11,220 5-year survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort, we found that cancer-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived from general population, genome-wide association study, cancer loci identified survivors of European ancestry at increased risk of subsequent basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio per s.d. of the PRS: OR = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29-1.46), female breast cancer (OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.27-1.58), thyroid cancer (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31-1.67), squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.00-1.44) and melanoma (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.31-1.96); however, the association for colorectal cancer was not significant (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.94-1.52). An investigation of joint associations between PRSs and radiotherapy found more than additive increased risks of basal cell carcinoma, and breast and thyroid cancers. For survivors with radiotherapy exposure, the cumulative incidence of subsequent cancer by age 50 years was increased for those with high versus low PRS. These findings suggest a degree of shared genetic etiology for these malignancy types in the general population and survivors, which remains evident in the context of strong radiotherapy-related risk.

BMI and breast cancer risk around age at menopause.

BACKGROUND: A high body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) is associated with decreased risk of breast cancer before menopause, but increased risk after menopause. Exactly when this reversal occurs in relation to menopause is unclear. Locating that change point could provide insight into the role of adiposity in breast cancer etiology. METHODS: We examined the association between BMI and breast cancer risk in the Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group, from age 45 up to breast cancer diagnosis, loss to follow-up, death, or age 55, whichever came first. Analyses included 609,880 women in 16 prospective studies, including 9956 who developed breast cancer before age 55. We fitted three BMI hazard ratio (HR) models over age-time: constant, linear, or nonlinear (via splines), applying piecewise exponential additive mixed models, with age as the primary time scale. We divided person-time into four strata: premenopause; postmenopause due to natural menopause; postmenopause because of interventional loss of ovarian function (bilateral oophorectomy (BO) or chemotherapy); postmenopause due to hysterectomy without BO. Sensitivity analyses included stratifying by BMI in young adulthood, or excluding women using menopausal hormone therapy. RESULTS: The constant BMI HR model provided the best fit for all four menopausal status groups. Under this model, the estimated association between a five-unit increment in BMI and breast cancer risk was HR=0.87 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.89) before menopause, HR=1.00 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.04) after natural menopause, HR=0.99 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.05) after interventional loss of ovarian function, and HR=0.88 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) after hysterectomy without BO. CONCLUSION: The BMI breast cancer HRs remained less than or near one during the 45-55 year age range indicating that the transition to a positive association between BMI and risk occurs after age 55.

Association of hormonal and reproductive factors with differentiated thyroid cancer risk in women: a pooled prospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is higher in women than in men but whether sex steroid hormones contribute to this difference remains unclear. Studies of reproductive and hormonal factors and thyroid cancer risk have provided inconsistent results. METHODS: Original data from 1 252 907 women in 16 cohorts in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia were combined to evaluate associations of DTC risk with reproductive and hormonal factors. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: During follow-up, 2142 women were diagnosed with DTC. Factors associated with higher risk of DTC included younger age at menarche (<10 vs 10-11 years; HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.00-1.64), younger (<40; HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.05-1.62) and older (≥55; HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.05-1.68) ages at menopause (vs 40-44 years), ever use of menopausal hormone therapy (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02-1.33) and previous hysterectomy (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.13-1.39) or bilateral oophorectomy (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00-1.29). Factors associated with lower risk included longer-term use (≥5 vs <5 years) of oral contraceptives (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.96) among those who ever used oral contraception and baseline post-menopausal status (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70-0.96). No associations were observed for parity, duration of menopausal hormone therapy use or lifetime number of reproductive years or ovulatory cycles. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides some evidence linking reproductive and hormonal factors with risk of DTC. Results should be interpreted cautiously considering the modest strength of the associations and potential for exposure misclassification and detection bias. Prospective studies of pre-diagnostic circulating sex steroid hormone measurements and DTC risk may provide additional insight.

The Pediatric Proton and Photon Therapy Comparison Cohort: Study Design for a Multicenter Retrospective Cohort to Investigate Subsequent Cancers After Pediatric Radiation Therapy.

Purpose: The physical properties of protons lower doses to surrounding normal tissues compared with photons, potentially reducing acute and long-term adverse effects, including subsequent cancers. The magnitude of benefit is uncertain, however, and currently based largely on modeling studies. Despite the paucity of directly comparative data, the number of proton centers and patients are expanding exponentially. Direct studies of the potential risks and benefits are needed in children, who have the highest risk of radiation-related subsequent cancers. The Pediatric Proton and Photon Therapy Comparison Cohort aims to meet this need. Methods and Materials: We are developing a record-linkage cohort of 10,000 proton and 10,000 photon therapy patients treated from 2007 to 2022 in the United States and Canada for pediatric central nervous system tumors, sarcomas, Hodgkin lymphoma, or neuroblastoma, the pediatric tumors most frequently treated with protons. Exposure assessment will be based on state-of-the-art dosimetry facilitated by collection of electronic radiation records for all eligible patients. Subsequent cancers and mortality will be ascertained by linkage to state and provincial cancer registries in the United States and Canada, respectively. The primary analysis will examine subsequent cancer risk after proton therapy compared with photon therapy, adjusting for potential confounders and accounting for competing risks. Results: For the primary aim comparing overall subsequent cancer rates between proton and photon therapy, we estimated that with 10,000 patients in each treatment group there would be 80% power to detect a relative risk of 0.8 assuming a cumulative incidence of subsequent cancers of 2.5% by 15 years after diagnosis. To date, 9 institutions have joined the cohort and initiated data collection; additional centers will be added in the coming year(s). Conclusions: Our findings will affect clinical practice for pediatric patients with cancer by providing the first large-scale systematic comparison of the risk of subsequent cancers from proton compared with photon therapy.

Risk of hematological malignancies from CT radiation exposure in children, adolescents and young adults.

Over one million European children undergo computed tomography (CT) scans annually. Although moderate- to high-dose ionizing radiation exposure is an established risk factor for hematological malignancies, risks at CT examination dose levels remain uncertain. Here we followed up a multinational cohort (EPI-CT) of 948,174 individuals who underwent CT examinations before age 22 years in nine European countries. Radiation doses to the active bone marrow were estimated on the basis of body part scanned, patient characteristics, time period and inferred CT technical parameters. We found an association between cumulative dose and risk of all hematological malignancies, with an excess relative risk of 1.96 (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 3.12) per 100 mGy (790 cases). Similar estimates were obtained for lymphoid and myeloid malignancies. Results suggest that for every 10,000 children examined today (mean dose 8 mGy), 1-2 persons are expected to develop a hematological malignancy attributable to radiation exposure in the subsequent 12 years. Our results strengthen the body of evidence of increased cancer risk at low radiation doses and highlight the need for continued justification of pediatric CT examinations and optimization of doses.

Radiation exposure and leukaemia risk among cohorts of persons exposed to low and moderate doses of external ionising radiation in childhood.

BACKGROUND: Many high-dose groups demonstrate increased leukaemia risks, with risk greatest following childhood exposure; risks at low/moderate doses are less clear. METHODS: We conducted a pooled analysis of the major radiation-associated leukaemias (acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) with/without the inclusion of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL)) in ten childhood-exposed groups, including Japanese atomic bomb survivors, four therapeutically irradiated and five diagnostically exposed cohorts, a mixture of incidence and mortality data. Relative/absolute risk Poisson regression models were fitted. RESULTS: Of 365 cases/deaths of leukaemias excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, there were 272 AML/CML/ALL among 310,905 persons (7,641,362 person-years), with mean active bone marrow (ABM) dose of 0.11 Gy (range 0-5.95). We estimated significant (P < 0.005) linear excess relative risks/Gy (ERR/Gy) for: AML (n = 140) = 1.48 (95% CI 0.59-2.85), CML (n = 61) = 1.77 (95% CI 0.38-4.50), and ALL (n = 71) = 6.65 (95% CI 2.79-14.83). There is upward curvature in the dose response for ALL and AML over the full dose range, although at lower doses (<0.5 Gy) curvature for ALL is downwards. DISCUSSION: We found increased ERR/Gy for all major types of radiation-associated leukaemia after childhood exposure to ABM doses that were predominantly (for 99%) <1 Gy, and consistent with our prior analysis focusing on <100 mGy.

Trends in Mortality From Poisonings, Firearms, and All Other Injuries by Intent in the US, 1999-2020.

Importance: Although deaths due to external causes are a leading cause of mortality in the US, trends over time by intent and demographic characteristics remain poorly understood. Objective: To examine national trends in mortality rates due to external causes from 1999 to 2020 by intent (homicide, suicide, unintentional, and undetermined) and demographic characteristics. External causes were defined as poisonings (eg, drug overdose), firearms, and all other injuries, including motor vehicle injuries and falls. Given the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, US death rates for 2019 and 2020 were also compared. Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional study using national death certificate data obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics and including all external causes of 3 813 894 deaths among individuals aged 20 years or older from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2020. Data analysis was conducted from January 20, 2022, to February 5, 2023. Exposures: Age, sex, and race and ethnicity. Main Outcomes and Measures: Trends in age-standardized mortality rates and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in rates calculated by intent (suicide, homicide, unintentional, and undetermined), age, sex, and race and ethnicity for each external cause. Results: Between 1999 and 2020, there were 3 813 894 deaths due to external causes in the US. From 1999 to 2020, poisoning death rates increased annually (AAPC, 7.0%; 95% CI, 5.4%-8.7%). From 2014 to 2020, poisoning death rates increased the most among men (APC, 10.8%; 95% CI, 7.7%-14.0%). During the study period, poisoning death rates increased in all the racial and ethnic groups examined; the most rapid increase was among American Indian and Alaska Native individuals (AAPC, 9.2%; 95% CI, 7.4%-10.9%). During the study period, death rates for unintentional poisoning had the most rapid rate of increase (AAPC, 8.1%; 95% CI, 7.4%-8.9%). From 1999 to 2020, firearm death rates increased (AAPC, 1.1%; 95% CI, 0.7%-1.5%). From 2013 to 2020, firearm mortality increased by an average of 4.7% annually (95% CI, 2.9%-6.5%) among individuals aged 20 to 39 years. From 2014 to 2020, mortality from firearm homicides increased by an average of 6.9% annually (95% CI, 3.5%-10.4%). From 2019 to 2020, mortality rates from external causes accelerated further, largely from increases in unintentional poisoning, and homicide due to firearms and all other injuries. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this cross-sectional study suggest that from 1999 to 2020, death rates due to poisonings, firearms, and all other injuries increased substantially in the US. The rapid increase in deaths due to unintentional poisonings and firearm homicides is a national emergency that requires urgent public health interventions at the local and national levels.

Comparing Risk for Second Primary Cancers After Intensity-Modulated vs 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer, 2002-2015.

Importance: Compared with 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT), intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) can spare nearby tissue but may result in increased scatter radiation to distant normal tissue, including red bone marrow. It is unclear whether second primary cancer risk varies by radiotherapy type. Objective: To evaluate whether radiotherapy type (IMRT vs 3DCRT) is associated with second primary cancer risk among older men treated for prostate cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective cohort study of a linked database of Medicare claims and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program population-based cancer registries (2002-2015), male patients aged 66 to 84 diagnosed with a first primary nonmetastatic prostate cancer from 2002 to 2013, as reported to SEER, and who received radiotherapy (IMRT and/or 3DCRT without proton therapy) within the first year following prostate cancer were identified. The data were analyzed from January 2022 through June 2022. Exposure: Receipt of IMRT and 3DCRT, based on Medicare claims. Main Outcomes and Measures: The association between radiotherapy type and development of a subsequent hematologic cancer at least 2 years after prostate cancer diagnosis or a subsequent solid cancer at least 5 years after prostate cancer diagnosis. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional regression. Results: The study included 65 235 2-year first primary prostate cancer survivors (median [range] age, 72 [66-82] years; 82.2% White patients) and 45 811 5-year survivors with similar demographic characteristics (median [range] age, 72 [66-79] years; 82.4% White patients). Among 2-year prostate cancer survivors (median [range] follow-up, 4.6 [0.003-12.0] years), 1107 second hematologic cancers were diagnosed (IMRT, 603; 3DCRT, 504). Radiotherapy type was not associated with second hematologic cancers overall or any specific types evaluated. Among 5-year survivors (median [range] follow-up, 3.1 [0.003-9.0] years), 2688 men were diagnosed with a second primary solid cancer (IMRT, 1306; 3DCRT, 1382). The overall HR for IMRT vs 3DCRT was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.83-0.99). This inverse association was restricted to the earlier calendar year period of prostate cancer diagnosis (HR2002-2005 = 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.94; HR2006-2010 = 1.14; 95% CI, 0.96-1.36), with a similar pattern observed for colon cancer (HR2002-2005 = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.94; HR2006-2010 = 1.06; 95% CI, 0.59-1.88). Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this large, population-based cohort study suggest that IMRT for prostate cancer is not associated with an increased risk of second primary cancers, either solid or hematologic, and any inverse associations may be associated with calendar year of treatment.

Risk of second primary cancer among women in the Kaiser Permanente Breast Cancer Survivors Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer survivors are living longer due to early detection and advances in treatment and are at increased risk for second primary cancers. Comprehensive evaluation of second cancer risk among patients treated in recent decades is lacking. METHODS: We identified 16,004 females diagnosed with a first primary stage I-III breast cancer between 1990 and 2016 (followed through 2017) and survived ≥ 1 year at Kaiser Permanente (KP) Colorado, Northwest, and Washington. Second cancer was defined as an invasive primary cancer diagnosed ≥ 12 months after the first primary breast cancer. Second cancer risk was evaluated for all cancers (excluding ipsilateral breast cancer) using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and a competing risk approach for cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for KP center, treatment, age, and year of first cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 1,562 women developed second cancer. Breast cancer survivors had a 70% higher risk of any cancer (95%CI = 1.62-1.79) and 45% higher risk of non-breast cancer (95%CI = 1.37-1.54) compared with the general population. SIRs were highest for malignancies of the peritoneum (SIR = 3.44, 95%CI = 1.65-6.33), soft tissue (SIR = 3.32, 95%CI = 2.51-4.30), contralateral breast (SIR = 3.10, 95%CI = 2.82-3.40), and acute myeloid leukemia (SIR = 2.11, 95%CI = 1.18-3.48)/myelodysplastic syndrome (SIR = 3.25, 95%CI = 1.89-5.20). Women also had elevated risks for oral, colon, pancreas, lung, and uterine corpus cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR range = 1.31-1.97). Radiotherapy was associated with increased risk for all second cancers (HR = 1.13, 95%CI = 1.01-1.25) and soft tissue sarcoma (HR = 2.36, 95%CI = 1.17-4.78), chemotherapy with decreased risk for all second cancers (HR = 0.87, 95%CI = 0.78-0.98) and increased myelodysplastic syndrome risk (HR = 3.01, 95%CI = 1.01-8.94), and endocrine therapy with lower contralateral breast cancer risk (HR = 0.48, 95%CI = 0.38-0.60). Approximately 1 in 9 women who survived ≥ 1 year developed second cancer, 1 in 13 developed second non-breast cancer, and 1 in 30 developed contralateral breast cancer by 10 years. Trends in cumulative incidence declined for contralateral breast cancer but not for second non-breast cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated risks of second cancer among breast cancer survivors treated in recent decades suggests that heightened surveillance is warranted and continued efforts to reduce second cancers are needed.

Cancer mortality rates by racial and ethnic groups in the United States, 2018-2020.

BACKGROUND: Starting in 2018, national death certificates included a new racial classification system that accounts for multiple-race decedents and separates Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) individuals from Asian individuals. We estimated cancer death rates across updated racial and ethnic categories, sex, and age. METHODS: Age-standardized US cancer mortality rates and rate ratios from 2018 to 2020 among individuals aged 20 years and older were estimated with national death certificate data by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and cancer site. RESULTS: In 2018, there were approximately 597 000 cancer deaths, 598 000 in 2019, and 601 000 in 2020. Among men, cancer death rates were highest in Black men (298.2 per 100 000; n = 105 632), followed by White (250.8; n = 736 319), American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN; 249.2; n = 3376), NHPI (205.6; n = 1080), Latino (177.2; n = 66 167), and Asian (147.9; n = 26 591) men. Among women, Black women had the highest cancer death rates (206.5 per 100 000; n = 104 437), followed by NHPI (192.1; n = 1141), AI/AN (189.9; n = 3239), White (183.0; n = 646 865), Latina (128.4; n = 61 579), and Asian (111.4; n = 26 396) women. The highest death rates by age group occurred among NHPI individuals aged 20-49 years and Black individuals aged 50-69 and 70 years and older. Asian individuals had the lowest cancer death rates across age groups. Compared with Asian individuals, total cancer death rates were 39% higher in NHPI men and 73% higher in NHPI women. CONCLUSIONS: There were striking racial and ethnic disparities in cancer death rates during 2018-2020. Separating NHPI and Asian individuals revealed large differences in cancer mortality between 2 groups that were previously combined in vital statistics data.

Interpretable, non-mechanistic forecasting using empirical dynamic modeling and interactive visualization.

Forecasting methods are notoriously difficult to interpret, particularly when the relationship between the data and the resulting forecasts is not obvious. Interpretability is an important property of a forecasting method because it allows the user to complement the forecasts with their own knowledge, a process which leads to more applicable results. In general, mechanistic methods are more interpretable than non-mechanistic methods, but they require explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics. In this paper, we introduce EpiForecast, a tool which performs interpretable, non-mechanistic forecasts using interactive visualization and a simple, data-focused forecasting technique based on empirical dynamic modelling. EpiForecast's primary feature is a four-plot interactive dashboard which displays a variety of information to help the user understand how the forecasts are generated. In addition to point forecasts, the tool produces distributional forecasts using a kernel density estimation method-these are visualized using color gradients to produce a quick, intuitive visual summary of the estimated future. To ensure the work is FAIR and privacy is ensured, we have released the tool as an entirely in-browser web-application.

Opportunities for Achieving the Cancer Moonshot Goal of a 50% Reduction in Cancer Mortality by 2047.

On February 2, 2022, President Biden and First Lady Dr. Biden reignited the Cancer Moonshot, setting a new goal to reduce age-standardized cancer mortality rates by at least 50% over the next 25 years in the United States. We estimated trends in U.S. cancer mortality during 2000 to 2019 for all cancers and the six leading types (lung, colorectum, pancreas, breast, prostate, liver). Cancer death rates overall declined by 1.4% per year from 2000 to 2015, accelerating to 2.3% per year during 2016 to 2019, driven by strong declines in lung cancer mortality (-4.7%/year, 2014 to 2019). Recent declines in colorectal (-2.0%/year, 2010-2019) and breast cancer death rates (-1.2%/year, 2013-2019) also contributed. However, trends for other cancer types were less promising. To achieve the Moonshot goal, progress against lung, colorectal, and breast cancer deaths needs to be maintained and/or accelerated, and new strategies for prostate, liver, pancreatic, and other cancers are needed. We reviewed opportunities to prevent, detect, and treat these common cancers that could further reduce population-level cancer death rates and also reduce disparities. SIGNIFICANCE: We reviewed opportunities to prevent, detect, and treat common cancers, and show that to achieve the Moonshot goal, progress against lung, colorectal, and breast cancer deaths needs to be maintained and/or accelerated, and new strategies for prostate, liver, pancreatic, and other cancers are needed. See related commentary by Bertagnolli et al., p. 1049. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 1027.

Racial and ethnic disparities in treatment-related heart disease mortality among US breast cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Racial and ethnic disparities in heart disease mortality by initial treatment type among breast cancer survivors have not been well described. METHODS: We included 739 557 women diagnosed with first primary invasive breast cancer between 2000 and 2017 (aged 18-84 years, received surgery, survived ≥1 year, followed through 2018) in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-18 database. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs; observed over expected) were calculated by race and ethnicity (non-Hispanic/Latina Asian American, Native Hawaiians, and other Pacific Islanders [AANHPI]; non-Hispanic/Latina Black [Black]; Hispanic/Latina [Latina]; and non-Hispanic/Latina White [White]) and initial treatment (surgery only; chemotherapy with surgery; chemotherapy, radiotherapy, with surgery; and radiotherapy with surgery) compared with the racial- and ethnic-matched general population, and by clinical characteristics. Cumulative heart disease mortality was estimated accounting for competing risks. RESULTS: SMRs were elevated for Black and Latina women treated with surgery only and chemotherapy with surgery (SMR range = 1.15-1.21) and AANHPI women treated with chemotherapy, radiotherapy, with surgery (SMR = 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11 to 1.48), whereas SMRs were less than 1 for White women (SMR range = 0.70-0.96). SMRs were especially high for women with advanced (regional or distant) stage among Black women for all treatment (range = 1.15-2.89) and for AANHPI and Latina women treated with chemotherapy with surgery (range = 1.28-3.61). Non-White women diagnosed at younger than age 60 years had higher SMRs, as did Black and AANHPI women diagnosed with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancers. Black women had the highest 10-year cumulative risk of heart disease mortality: aged younger than 60 years (Black: 1.78%, 95% CI = 1.63% to 1.94%) compared with White, AANHPI, and Latina women (<1%) and aged 60 years and older (Black: 7.92%, 95% CI = 7.53% to 8.33%) compared with White, AANHPI, and Latina women (range = 3.90%-6.48%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings illuminated striking racial and ethnic disparities in heart disease mortality among Black, AANHPI, and Latina breast cancer survivors, especially after initial chemotherapy receipt.