Time-varying exposure to food retailers and cardiovascular disease hospitalization and mortality in the netherlands: a nationwide prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Very few studies to date investigated the prospective association of changes in exposure to the food environment with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We aim to explore if time-varying exposure to the food environment was associated with hospitalization and mortality due to total and specific types of CVD in The Netherlands. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 4,641,435 Dutch adults aged 35 + years who did not change residence in 2002-2018 were identified through registry data. Exposure to the food environment was defined as time-varying Food Environment Healthiness Index (FEHI) scores (range: - 5 to 5) and time-varying kernel density of specific food retailers (e.g., fast food outlets, supermarkets) around the home location between 2004 and 2018. The main outcome measures were hospitalization and mortality due to overall CVD, stroke, HF, and CHD occurring between 2004 and 2020, based on hospital and death registries. RESULTS: In Cox regression models, each unit increase in the FEHI was associated with a lower hospitalization and mortality of CVD (hospitalization hazard ratio (HRh) = 0.90 (0.89 to 0.91), mortality hazard ratio (HRm) = 0.85 (0.82 to 0.89)), CHD (HRh = 0.88 (0.85 to 0.91), HRm = 0.80 (0.75 to 0.86)), stroke (HRh = 0.89 (0.84 to 0.93)), HRm = 0.89 (0.82 to 0.98)), and HF (HRh = 0.90 (0.84-0.96), HRm = 0.84 (0.76 to 0.92)). Increased density of local food shops, fast food outlets, supermarkets, and convenience stores and decreased density of food delivery outlets and restaurants were associated with a higher risk of CVD, CHD, stroke, and HF hospitalization and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this observational longitudinal study, changes in exposure to a healthier food environment over 14 years were associated with a risk reduction in CVD hospitalization and mortality, in particular in urbanized areas and for younger adults and those with higher incomes.

Meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes: an individual-participant federated meta-analysis of 1·97 million adults with 100 000 incident cases from 31 cohorts in 20 countries.

BACKGROUND: Meat consumption could increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, evidence is largely based on studies of European and North American populations, with heterogeneous analysis strategies and a greater focus on red meat than on poultry. We aimed to investigate the associations of unprocessed red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption with type 2 diabetes using data from worldwide cohorts and harmonised analytical approaches. METHODS: This individual-participant federated meta-analysis involved data from 31 cohorts participating in the InterConnect project. Cohorts were from the region of the Americas (n=12) and the Eastern Mediterranean (n=2), European (n=9), South-East Asia (n=1), and Western Pacific (n=7) regions. Access to individual-participant data was provided by each cohort; participants were eligible for inclusion if they were aged 18 years or older and had available data on dietary consumption and incident type 2 diabetes and were excluded if they had a diagnosis of any type of diabetes at baseline or missing data. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated for each meat type, adjusted for potential confounders (including BMI), and pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis, with meta-regression to investigate potential sources of heterogeneity. FINDINGS: Among 1 966 444 adults eligible for participation, 107 271 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified during a median follow-up of 10 (IQR 7-15) years. Median meat consumption across cohorts was 0-110 g/day for unprocessed red meat, 0-49 g/day for processed meat, and 0-72 g/day for poultry. Greater consumption of each of the three types of meat was associated with increased incidence of type 2 diabetes, with HRs of 1·10 (95% CI 1·06-1·15) per 100 g/day of unprocessed red meat (I2=61%), 1·15 (1·11-1·20) per 50 g/day of processed meat (I2=59%), and 1·08 (1·02-1·14) per 100 g/day of poultry (I2=68%). Positive associations between meat consumption and type 2 diabetes were observed in North America and in the European and Western Pacific regions; the CIs were wide in other regions. We found no evidence that the heterogeneity was explained by age, sex, or BMI. The findings for poultry consumption were weaker under alternative modelling assumptions. Replacing processed meat with unprocessed red meat or poultry was associated with a lower incidence of type 2 diabetes. INTERPRETATION: The consumption of meat, particularly processed meat and unprocessed red meat, is a risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes across populations. These findings highlight the importance of reducing meat consumption for public health and should inform dietary guidelines. FUNDING: The EU, the Medical Research Council, and the National Institute of Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre.

Circulating small non-coding RNAs are associated with the insulin-resistant and obesity-related type 2 diabetes clusters.

AIM: To uncover differences in small non-coding RNAs (sncRNAs) in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) categorized into five clusters based on individual characteristics, which may aid in the identification of those prone to rapid progression. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort, participants were clustered by age, body mass index (BMI), and glycated haemoglobin, C-peptide and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, yielding severe insulin-deficient diabetes, severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD), mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD), mild diabetes, and mild diabetes with high HDL cholesterol clusters (n = 412). Utilizing plasma sncRNA-sequencing, we identified distinct cluster-specific sncRNAs. Validation was performed in a smaller DCS Hoorn dataset (n = 138). To elucidate their potential functions, we examined tissue expression, identified potential targets or (co-)regulated proteins, conducted gene set enrichment analyses on the targets through Reactome, and examined tissue expression of the (co-)regulated proteins. RESULTS: The insulin-resistant cluster exhibited aberrant expression of 10 sncRNAs, while the high BMI cluster featured eight differentially expressed sncRNAs. Multiple (co-)regulated proteins were identified for sncRNAs associated with both clusters. Proteins associated with both clusters showed enrichment for metabolism. Proteins that specifically and only associated with the SIRD cluster showed enrichment for immune-related signalling. Furthermore, MOD cluster-specific associated proteins showed enrichment for the complement system. CONCLUSIONS: Our research showed differential sncRNA levels among type 2 diabetes clusters. This may reflect and could deepen our understanding of molecular mechanisms, in development, progression, and risk factors for each cluster.

Plasma sphingolipids mediate the association between gut microbiome composition and type 2 diabetes risk in the HELIUS cohort: a case-cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: The association between the gut microbiome and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is potentially partly mediated through sphingolipids, however these possible mediating mechanisms have not been investigated. We examined whether sphingolipids mediate the association between gut microbiome and T2D, using data from the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants were of Dutch or South-Asian Surinamese ethnicity, aged 18-70 years, and without T2D at baseline. A case-cohort design (subcohort n=176, cases incident T2D n=36) was used. The exposure was measured by 16S rRNA sequencing (gut microbiome) and mediator by targeted metabolomics (sphingolipids). Dimensionality reduction was achieved by principle component analysis and Shannon diversity. Cox regression and procrustes analyses were used to assess the association between gut microbiome and T2D and sphingolipids and T2D, and between gut microbiome and sphingolipids, respectively. Mediation was tested familywise using mediation analysis with permutation testing and Bonferroni correction. RESULTS: Our study confirmed associations between gut microbiome and T2D and sphingolipids and T2D. Additionally, we showed that the gut microbiome was associated with sphingolipids. The association between gut microbiome and T2D was partly mediated by a sphingolipid principal component, which represents a dominance of ceramide species over more complex sphingolipids (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.28; proportional explained 48%), and by Shannon diversity (HR 0.97; 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99; proportional explained 24.8%). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that sphingolipids mediate the association between microbiome and T2D risk. Future research is needed to confirm observed findings and elucidate causality on a molecular level.

The cross-sectional association between dietary total, animal, and plant-based protein intake and the prevalence and severity of depressive symptoms in Dutch adults with type 2 diabetes: The Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate cross-sectional associations of total, animal, and plant-based protein intake and depressive symptoms in Dutch adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: We included 1137 individuals with T2D (aged 68.6 ± 9.0) from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort. Energy-adjusted protein intake was assessed using a validated Food Frequency Questionnaire. The nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) was used to assess the prevalence of depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 ≥ 10 and/or anti-depressant use) and the severity of depressive symptoms (continuous PHQ-9 score). Associations between total, animal, and plant-based protein (quartiles) with depressive symptoms were assessed using multiple logistic and linear regression. RESULTS: Highest intake of total, animal, and plant-based protein was not associated with the prevalence of depressive symptoms, compared to lowest intake (e.g., total protein, ORQ4vsQ1:0.75, 95%CI 0.42;1.32). For the severity of depressive symptoms, highest total protein intake was significantly associated with lower PHQ-9 scores (ORQ4vsQ1:0.87, 95%CI 0.75;1.00), compared to lowest intake. Animal protein was not associated with the severity of depressive symptoms (ߠ∼ 1), while the association for plant-based protein was marginally non-significant (ßQ4vsQ1:0.88, 95%CI 0.76;1.02). CONCLUSION: In individuals with T2D, higher total protein intake was associated with reduced severity of depressive symptoms, but not with the prevalence of depressive symptoms. Further prospective research with a larger sample size is needed to confirm these associations.

A randomized controlled trial to assess if changing sleep timing can improve glucose metabolism in people with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Social jetlag is a chronic disruption of sleep timing that is characterized by different sleep timing during workdays and free days. Social jetlag has been associated with disturbed glucose metabolism, insulin resistance, and increased risk of metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aim to investigate whether a combination of bright light therapy in the morning, bright light reduction in the evening and sleep advance instructions for 3 weeks reduces social jetlag and if this results in improvement of glycemic and metabolic control, sleep, mood and quality of life after 3 and 12 weeks in people with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes and to assess possible mediators, compared to regular sleep habits. METHODS: In this randomized controlled trial, 60 people with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes with > 1 h social jetlag will be recruited. The intervention consists of bright light therapy (5000 lx) emitted by Vitamine-L (Lumie, UK) for 30 min each morning, combined with the advice to follow sleep advance instructions and to wear bright light-dimming goggles every evening for a period of 3 weeks. The control group adheres to their regular sleep habits and conditions. The primary outcome is glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) after 12 weeks comparing the intervention and control in an intention-to-treat analysis. Secondary outcomes at 3 and 12 weeks are (1) social jetlag; (2) insulin sensitivity, fasting blood glucose, glucose-lowering medication use, and frequency of perceived hypoglycemia; (3) metabolic outcomes, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, body fat percentage, and blood pressure; (4) mood, including depression, fatigue and anxiety (measured with questionnaires); and (5) quality of life measured using EQ5D questionnaire. To assess other factors that might play a role as possible mediators, we will measure (para)sympathetic nervous system activity assessed with ECGs and electrochemical skin conductance tests, sleep quality and sleep phase distribution assessed with a sleep measuring headband (ZMax), the Dim Light Melatonin Onset in saliva samples (in a subgroup) at 3 and 12 weeks, the feeling of satiety and satiation with a 10-cm visual analog scale (VAS), diet using a food frequency questionnaire, and physical activity using an accelerometer (ActiGraph). DISCUSSION: Social jetlag can contribute to poorer glycemic control and metabolic control in those with type 2 diabetes. With this intervention, we aim to reduce social jetlag and thereby improve glycemic and metabolic control. This could offer a way to improve overall population health and to reduce the disease burden of type 2 diabetes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry ISRCTN11967109 . Registered on 9 May 2024.

Are Dutch adults equally susceptible to nudging and pricing strategies? Secondary analyses of the Supreme Nudge parallel cluster-randomised controlled supermarket trial.

BACKGROUND: Supermarket interventions are promising to promote healthier dietary patterns, but not all individuals may be equally susceptible. We explored whether the effectiveness of nudging and pricing strategies on diet quality differs by psychological and grocery shopping characteristics. METHODS: We used data of the 12-month Supreme Nudge parallel cluster-randomised controlled supermarket trial, testing nudging and pricing strategies to promote healthier diets. Participants were Dutch speaking adults aged 30-80 years and regular shoppers of participating supermarkets (n = 12) in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Data on psychological characteristics (food-related behaviours; price sensitivity; food decision styles; social cognitive factors; self-control) and grocery shopping characteristics (time spent in the supermarket; moment of the day; average supermarket visits; shopping at other retailers; supermarket proximity) were self-reported at baseline. These characteristics were tested for their moderating effects of the intervention on diet quality (scored 0-150) in linear mixed models. RESULTS: We included 162 participants from intervention supermarkets and 199 from control supermarkets (73% female, 58 (± 10.8) years old, 42% highly educated). The interventions had no overall effect on diet quality. Only five out of 23 potential moderators were statistically significant. Yet, stratified analyses of these significant moderators showed no significant effects on diet quality for one of the subgroups and statistically non-significant negative effects for the other. Negative effects were suggested for individuals with lower baseline levels of meal planning (ß - 2.6, 95% CI - 5.9; 0.8), healthy shopping convenience (ß - 3.0, 95% CI - 7.2; 1.3), and healthy food attractiveness (ß - 3.5, 95% CI - 8.3; 1.3), and with higher levels of price consciousness (ß - 2.6, 95% CI - 6.2; 1.0) and weekly supermarket visits (ß - 2.4, 95% CI - 6.8; 1.9). CONCLUSIONS: Adults with varying psychological and grocery shopping characteristics largely seem equally (un)susceptible to nudging and pricing strategies. It might be that certain characteristics lead to adverse effects, but this is not plausible, and the observed negative effects were small and statistically non-significant and may be explained by chance findings. Verification of these findings is needed in real-world trials based on larger sample sizes and with the use of more comprehensive interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register ID NL7064, 30th of May, 2018, https://onderzoekmetmensen.nl/en/trial/20990.

Exposome-Wide Association Study of Body Mass Index Using a Novel Meta-Analytical Approach for Random Forest Models.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity impose a considerable individual and social burden, and the urban environments might encompass factors that contribute to obesity. Nevertheless, there is a scarcity of research that takes into account the simultaneous interaction of multiple environmental factors. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to perform an exposome-wide association study of body mass index (BMI) in a multicohort setting of 15 studies. METHODS: Studies were affiliated with the Dutch Geoscience and Health Cohort Consortium (GECCO), had different population sizes (688-141,825), and covered the entire Netherlands. Ten studies contained general population samples, others focused on specific populations including people with diabetes or impaired hearing. BMI was calculated from self-reported or measured height and weight. Associations with 69 residential neighborhood environmental factors (air pollution, noise, temperature, neighborhood socioeconomic and demographic factors, food environment, drivability, and walkability) were explored. Random forest (RF) regression addressed potential nonlinear and nonadditive associations. In the absence of formal methods for multimodel inference for RF, a rank aggregation-based meta-analytic strategy was used to summarize the results across the studies. RESULTS: Six exposures were associated with BMI: five indicating neighborhood economic or social environments (average home values, percentage of high-income residents, average income, livability score, share of single residents) and one indicating the physical activity environment (walkability in 5-km buffer area). Living in high-income neighborhoods and neighborhoods with higher livability scores was associated with lower BMI. Nonlinear associations were observed with neighborhood home values in all studies. Lower neighborhood home values were associated with higher BMI scores but only for values up to €300,000. The directions of associations were less consistent for walkability and share of single residents. DISCUSSION: Rank aggregation made it possible to flexibly combine the results from various studies, although between-study heterogeneity could not be estimated quantitatively based on RF models. Neighborhood social, economic, and physical environments had the strongest associations with BMI. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13393.

Role of Systemic Factors in Improving the Prognosis of Diabetic Retinal Disease and Predicting Response to Diabetic Retinopathy Treatment.

Topic: To review clinical evidence on systemic factors that might be relevant to update diabetic retinal disease (DRD) staging systems, including prediction of DRD onset, progression, and response to treatment. Clinical relevance: Systemic factors may improve new staging systems for DRD to better assess risk of disease worsening and predict response to therapy. Methods: The Systemic Health Working Group of the Mary Tyler Moore Vision Initiative reviewed systemic factors individually and in multivariate models for prediction of DRD onset or progression (i.e., prognosis) or response to treatments (prediction). Results: There was consistent evidence for associations of longer diabetes duration, higher glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and male sex with DRD onset and progression. There is strong trial evidence for the effect of reducing HbA1c and reducing DRD progression. There is strong evidence that higher blood pressure (BP) is a risk factor for DRD incidence and for progression. Pregnancy has been consistently reported to be associated with worsening of DRD but recent studies reflecting modern care standards are lacking. In studies examining multivariate prognostic models of DRD onset, HbA1c and diabetes duration were consistently retained as significant predictors of DRD onset. There was evidence of associations of BP and sex with DRD onset. In multivariate prognostic models examining DRD progression, retinal measures were consistently found to be a significant predictor of DRD with little evidence of any useful marginal increment in prognostic information with the inclusion of systemic risk factor data apart from retinal image data in multivariate models. For predicting the impact of treatment, although there are small studies that quantify prognostic information based on imaging data alone or systemic factors alone, there are currently no large studies that quantify marginal prognostic information within a multivariate model, including both imaging and systemic factors. Conclusion: With standard imaging techniques and ways of processing images rapidly evolving, an international network of centers is needed to routinely capture systemic health factors simultaneously to retinal images so that gains in prediction increment may be precisely quantified to determine the usefulness of various health factors in the prognosis of DRD and prediction of response to treatment. Financial Disclosures: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Apolipoprotein-CIII O-Glycosylation Is Associated with Micro- and Macrovascular Complications of Type 2 Diabetes.

Apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII) inhibits the clearance of triglycerides from circulation and is associated with an increased risk of diabetes complications. It exists in four main proteoforms: O-glycosylated variants containing either zero, one, or two sialic acids and a non-glycosylated variant. O-glycosylation may affect the metabolic functions of apo-CIII. We investigated the associations of apo-CIII glycosylation in blood plasma, measured by mass spectrometry of the intact protein, and genetic variants with micro- and macrovascular complications (retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy, cardiovascular disease) of type 2 diabetes in a DiaGene study (n = 1571) and the Hoorn DCS cohort (n = 5409). Mono-sialylated apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII1) was associated with a reduced risk of retinopathy (ß = -7.215, 95% CI -11.137 to -3.294) whereas disialylated apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII2) was associated with an increased risk (ß = 5.309, 95% CI 2.279 to 8.339). A variant of the GALNT2-gene (rs4846913), previously linked to lower apo-CIII0a, was associated with a decreased prevalence of retinopathy (OR = 0.739, 95% CI 0.575 to 0.951). Higher apo-CIII1 levels were associated with neuropathy (ß = 7.706, 95% CI 2.317 to 13.095) and lower apo-CIII0a with macrovascular complications (ß = -9.195, 95% CI -15.847 to -2.543). In conclusion, apo-CIII glycosylation was associated with the prevalence of micro- and macrovascular complications of diabetes. Moreover, a variant in the GALNT2-gene was associated with apo-CIII glycosylation and retinopathy, suggesting a causal effect. The findings facilitate a molecular understanding of the pathophysiology of diabetes complications and warrant consideration of apo-CIII glycosylation as a potential target in the prevention of diabetes complications.

Trajectories of clinical characteristics, complications and treatment choices in data-driven subgroups of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study aimed to explore the added value of subgroups that categorise individuals with type 2 diabetes by k-means clustering for two primary care registries (the Netherlands and Scotland), inspired by Ahlqvist's novel diabetes subgroups and previously analysed by Slieker et al. METHODS: We used two Dutch and Scottish diabetes cohorts (N=3054 and 6145; median follow-up=11.2 and 12.3 years, respectively) and defined five subgroups by k-means clustering with age at baseline, BMI, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. We investigated differences between subgroups by trajectories of risk factor values (random intercept models), time to diabetes-related complications (logrank tests and Cox models) and medication patterns (multinomial logistic models). We also compared directly using the clustering indicators as predictors of progression vs the k-means discrete subgroups. Cluster consistency over follow-up was assessed. RESULTS: Subgroups' risk factors were significantly different, and these differences remained generally consistent over follow-up. Among all subgroups, individuals with severe insulin resistance faced a significantly higher risk of myocardial infarction both before (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.40, 1.94) and after adjusting for age effect (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.46, 2.02) compared with mild diabetes with high HDL-cholesterol. Individuals with severe insulin-deficient diabetes were most intensively treated, with more than 25% prescribed insulin at 10 years of diagnosis. For severe insulin-deficient diabetes relative to mild diabetes, the relative risks for using insulin relative to no common treatment would be expected to increase by a factor of 3.07 (95% CI 2.73, 3.44), holding other factors constant. Clustering indicators were better predictors of progression variation relative to subgroups, but prediction accuracy may improve after combining both. Clusters were consistent over 8 years with an accuracy ranging from 59% to 72%. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Data-driven subgroup allocations were generally consistent over follow-up and captured significant differences in risk factor trajectories, medication patterns and complication risks. Subgroups serve better as a complement rather than as a basis for compressing clustering indicators.

The effect of preprandial versus postprandial physical activity on glycaemia: Meta-analysis of human intervention studies.

This meta-analysis aims to investigate the effect of preprandial physical activity (PA) versus postprandial PA on glycaemia in human intervention studies. Medline and Embase.com were searched until February 2023 for intervention studies in adults, directly comparing preprandial PA versus postprandial PA on glycaemia. Studies were screened using ASReview (34,837) and full texts were read by two independent reviewers (42 full text, 28 included). Results were analysed using pooled mean differences in random-effects models. Studies were either acute response studies (n = 21) or Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) over multiple weeks (n = 7). In acute response studies, postprandial outcomes followed the expected physiological patterns, and outcomes measured over 24 h showed no significant differences. For the RCTs, glucose area under the curve during a glucose tolerance test was slightly, but not significantly lower in preprandial PA vs postprandial PA (-0.29 [95 %CI:-0.66, 0.08] mmol/L, I2 = 64.36 %). Subgroup analyses (quality, health status, etc.) did not significantly change the outcomes. In conclusion, we found no differences between preprandial PA versus postprandial PA on glycaemia both after one PA bout as well as after multiple weeks of PA. The studies were of low to moderate quality of evidence as assessed by GRADE, showed contradictive results, included no long-term studies and used various designs and populations. We therefore need better RCTs, with more similar designs, in larger populations and longer follow-up periods (≥12 weeks) to have a final answer on the questions eat first, then exercise, or the reverse?

Multi-omics subgroups associated with glycaemic deterioration in type 2 diabetes: an IMI-RHAPSODY Study.

Introduction: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) onset, progression and outcomes differ substantially between individuals. Multi-omics analyses may allow a deeper understanding of these differences and ultimately facilitate personalised treatments. Here, in an unsupervised "bottom-up" approach, we attempt to group T2D patients based solely on -omics data generated from plasma. Methods: Circulating plasma lipidomic and proteomic data from two independent clinical cohorts, Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) and Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS), were analysed using Similarity Network Fusion. The resulting patient network was analysed with Logistic and Cox regression modelling to explore relationships between plasma -omic profiles and clinical characteristics. Results: From a total of 1,134 subjects in the two cohorts, levels of 180 circulating plasma lipids and 1195 proteins were used to separate patients into two subgroups. These differed in terms of glycaemic deterioration (Hazard Ratio=0.56;0.73), insulin sensitivity and secretion (C-peptide, p=3.7e-11;2.5e-06, DCS and GoDARTS, respectively; Homeostatic model assessment 2 (HOMA2)-B; -IR; -S, p=0.0008;4.2e-11;1.1e-09, only in DCS). The main molecular signatures separating the two groups included triacylglycerols, sphingomyelin, testican-1 and interleukin 18 receptor. Conclusions: Using an unsupervised network-based fusion method on plasma lipidomics and proteomics data from two independent cohorts, we were able to identify two subgroups of T2D patients differing in terms of disease severity. The molecular signatures identified within these subgroups provide insights into disease mechanisms and possibly new prognostic markers for T2D.

Increased interleukin-6 is associated with higher risk of heart failure in people with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: We aimed to determine the association between serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations and new-onset heart failure (HF) in persons with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a case-control study nested in the Diabetes Care System Cohort, a prospective cohort of persons with T2D in primary care. We included 724 participants, of whom 141 developed HF during 5 years of follow-up and 583 were age- and sex-matched controls. IL-6 was measured at baseline and categorized into four groups: Group 1 was composed of participants with IL-6 below the detection limit of 1.5 pg/mL, and the remainder were divided into tertiles. We performed logistic regression analyses with categorized IL-6 or continuous IL-6 as the determinant and new-onset HF as the outcome adjusted for follow-up time, age, sex, glycated haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, albumin/creatinine ratio, and cardiovascular disease at baseline. Effect modification by sex was tested. Participants were 70.7 ± 9.0 years, and 38% were women. In comparison with Group 1, all tertiles were associated with an increased risk of HF with odds ratios of 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-2.9], 2.8 (95% CI: 2.0-3.7), and 2.1 (95% CI: 1.3-3.0), respectively, for Tertiles 1-3. Continuous IL-6 was associated with the development of HF with an odds ratio of 1.2 (95% CI: 1.0-1.5). No effect modification by sex was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Higher IL-6 levels are associated with the development of HF in persons with T2D. Further research should determine whether IL-6-lowering interventions could prevent the development of HF.

Branched-chain amino acid levels are inversely associated with incident and prevalent chronic kidney disease in people with type 2 diabetes.

AIM: To investigate the association of plasma metabolites with incident and prevalent chronic kidney disease (CKD) in people with type 2 diabetes and establish whether this association is causal. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort is a large prospective cohort consisting of individuals with type 2 diabetes from the northwest part of the Netherlands. In this cohort we assessed the association of baseline plasma levels of 172 metabolites with incident (Ntotal = 462/Ncase = 81) and prevalent (Ntotal = 1247/Ncase = 120) CKD using logistic regression. Additionally, replication in the UK Biobank, body mass index (BMI) mediation and causality of the association with Mendelian randomization was performed. RESULTS: Elevated levels of total and individual branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs)-valine, leucine and isoleucine-were associated with an increased risk of incident CKD, but with reduced odds of prevalent CKD, where BMI was identified as an effect modifier. The observed inverse effects were replicated in the UK Biobank. Mendelian randomization analysis did not provide evidence for a causal relationship between BCAAs and prevalent CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows the intricate relationship between plasma BCAA levels and CKD in individuals with type 2 diabetes. While an association exists, its manifestation varies based on disease status and BMI, with no definitive evidence supporting a causal link between BCAAs and prevalent CKD.

An omics-based machine learning approach to predict diabetes progression: a RHAPSODY study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: People with type 2 diabetes are heterogeneous in their disease trajectory, with some progressing more quickly to insulin initiation than others. Although classical biomarkers such as age, HbA1c and diabetes duration are associated with glycaemic progression, it is unclear how well such variables predict insulin initiation or requirement and whether newly identified markers have added predictive value. METHODS: In two prospective cohort studies as part of IMI-RHAPSODY, we investigated whether clinical variables and three types of molecular markers (metabolites, lipids, proteins) can predict time to insulin requirement using different machine learning approaches (lasso, ridge, GRridge, random forest). Clinical variables included age, sex, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. Models were run with unpenalised clinical variables (i.e. always included in the model without weights) or penalised clinical variables, or without clinical variables. Model development was performed in one cohort and the model was applied in a second cohort. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel's C statistic. RESULTS: Of the 585 individuals from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort, 69 required insulin during follow-up (1.0-11.4 years); of the 571 individuals in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) cohort, 175 required insulin during follow-up (0.3-11.8 years). Overall, the clinical variables and proteins were selected in the different models most often, followed by the metabolites. The most frequently selected clinical variables were HbA1c (18 of the 36 models, 50%), age (15 models, 41.2%) and C-peptide (15 models, 41.2%). Base models (age, sex, BMI, HbA1c) including only clinical variables performed moderately in both the DCS discovery cohort (C statistic 0.71 [95% CI 0.64, 0.79]) and the GoDARTS replication cohort (C 0.71 [95% CI 0.69, 0.75]). A more extensive model including HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide performed better in both cohorts (DCS, C 0.74 [95% CI 0.67, 0.81]; GoDARTS, C 0.73 [95% CI 0.69, 0.77]). Two proteins, lactadherin and proto-oncogene tyrosine-protein kinase receptor, were most consistently selected and slightly improved model performance. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Using machine learning approaches, we show that insulin requirement risk can be modestly well predicted by predominantly clinical variables. Inclusion of molecular markers improves the prognostic performance beyond that of clinical variables by up to 5%. Such prognostic models could be useful for identifying people with diabetes at high risk of progressing quickly to treatment intensification. DATA AVAILABILITY: Summary statistics of lipidomic, proteomic and metabolomic data are available from a Shiny dashboard at https://rhapdata-app.vital-it.ch .

Is the association between social jetlag and BMI mediated by lifestyle? A cross-sectional survey study in the Dutch general population.

OBJECTIVE: Social jetlag is a discordance between the social and biological rhythm and is associated with higher HbA1c, higher BMI, and higher odds of obesity. The pathways that could explain these associations are still debated. This study aims to assess the mediating role of several lifestyle factors in the cross-sectional association between social jetlag and BMI. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from 1784 adults from urban areas in the Netherlands, collected in 2019. Social jetlag (difference in midpoint of sleep between week and weekend nights) was categorized as low(<1 h), moderate(1-2h), and high(>2 h). BMI(kg/m2) was calculated from self-reported height and weight. The association between social jetlag and BMI was assessed using linear regression, adjusted for sex, age, education, and sleep duration and stratified for the effect modifier stress (high vs. low). Mediation analysis was performed for self-reported smoking, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and adherence to a healthy diet. RESULTS: High social jetlag was associated with higher BMI (0.69 kg/m2,95%CI 0.05;1.33). This association was stronger in people with high stress (0.93 kg/m2,95%CI 0.09;1.76). Social jetlag was also associated with higher odds of smoking, lower physical activity, higher alcohol consumption, and lower healthy diet adherence. In people with high stress, these factors mediated 10-15% of the association between social jetlag and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Social jetlag is associated with higher BMI and this association is stronger in people with high stress. In people with high stress, healthy diet adherence mediated 12% of this association. Other pathways involved in this association should be further investigated.

Global positioning system-based food environment exposures, diet-related, and cardiometabolic health outcomes: a systematic review and research agenda.

BACKGROUND: Geographic access to food may affect dietary choices and health outcomes, but the strength and direction of associations may depend on the operationalization of exposure measures. We aimed to systematically review the literature on up-to-date evidence on the association between food environment exposures based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and diet-related and cardiometabolic health outcomes. METHODS: The databases PubMed, Embase.com, APA PsycInfo (via Ebsco), Cinahl (via Ebsco), the Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, and the International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (via ProQuest) were searched from inception to October 31, 2022. We included studies that measured the activity space through GPS tracking data to identify exposure to food outlets and assessed associations with either diet-related or cardiometabolic health outcomes. Quality assessment was evaluated using the criteria from a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) for cross-sectional studies. We additionally used four items from a quality assessment tool to specifically assess the quality of GPS measurements. RESULTS: Of 2949 studies retrieved, 14 studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria. They were heterogeneous and represent inconsistent evidence. Yet, three studies found associations between food outlets and food purchases, for example, more exposure to junk food outlets was associated with higher odds of junk food purchases. Two studies found associations between greater exposure to fast food outlets and higher fast food consumption and out of three studies that investigated food environment in relation to metabolic outcomes, two studies found that higher exposure to an unhealthy food environment was associated with higher odds of being overweight. CONCLUSIONS: The current and limited evidence base does not provide strong evidence for consistent associations of GPS-based exposures of the food environment with diet-related and cardiometabolic health outcomes.

Real-world nudging, pricing, and mobile physical activity coaching was insufficient to improve lifestyle behaviours and cardiometabolic health: the Supreme Nudge parallel cluster-randomised controlled supermarket trial.

BACKGROUND: Context-specific interventions may contribute to sustained behaviour change and improved health outcomes. We evaluated the real-world effects of supermarket nudging and pricing strategies and mobile physical activity coaching on diet quality, food-purchasing behaviour, walking behaviour, and cardiometabolic risk markers. METHODS: This parallel cluster-randomised controlled trial included supermarkets in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods across the Netherlands with regular shoppers aged 30-80 years. Supermarkets were randomised to receive co-created nudging and pricing strategies promoting healthier purchasing (N = 6) or not (N = 6). Nudges targeted 9% of supermarket products and pricing strategies 3%. Subsequently, participants were individually randomised to a control (step counter app) or intervention arm (step counter and mobile coaching app) to promote walking. The primary outcome was the average change in diet quality (low (0) to high (150)) over all follow-up time points measured with a validated 40-item food frequency questionnaire at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months. Secondary outcomes included healthier food purchasing (loyalty card-derived), daily step count (step counter app), cardiometabolic risk markers (lipid profile and HbA1c via finger prick, and waist circumference via measuring tape), and supermarket customer satisfaction (questionnaire-based: very unsatisfied (1) to very satisfied (7)), evaluated using linear mixed-models. Healthy supermarket sales (an exploratory outcome) were analysed via controlled interrupted time series analyses. RESULTS: Of 361 participants (162 intervention, 199 control), 73% were female, the average age was 58 (SD 11) years, and 42% were highly educated. Compared to the control arm, the intervention arm showed no statistically significant average changes over time in diet quality (ߠ- 1.1 (95% CI - 3.8 to 1.7)), percentage healthy purchasing (ß 0.7 ( - 2.7 to 4.0)), step count (ߠ- 124.0 (- 723.1 to 475.1), or any of the cardiometabolic risk markers. Participants in the intervention arm scored 0.3 points (0.1 to 0.5) higher on customer satisfaction on average over time. Supermarket-level sales were unaffected (ß - 0.0 (- 0.0 to 0.0)). CONCLUSIONS: Co-created nudging and pricing strategies that predominantly targeted healthy products via nudges were unable to increase healthier food purchases and intake nor improve cardiometabolic health. The mobile coaching intervention did not affect step count. Governmental policy measures are needed to ensure more impactful supermarket modifications that promote healthier purchases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register ID NL7064, 30 May 2018, https://www.onderzoekmetmensen.nl/en/trial/20990.

Epidemiology of heart failure in diabetes: a disease in disguise.

Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) without symptoms, and heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represent the most common phenotypes of HF in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and are more common than HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), HF with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) in these individuals. However, diagnostic criteria for HF have changed over the years, resulting in heterogeneity in the prevalence/incidence rates reported in different studies. We aimed to give an overview of the diagnosis and epidemiology of HF in type 2 diabetes, using both a narrative and systematic review approach; we focus narratively on diagnosing (using the 2021 European Society of Cardiology [ESC] guidelines) and screening for HF in type 2 diabetes. We performed an updated (2016-October 2022) systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting the prevalence and incidence of HF subtypes in adults ≥18 years with type 2 diabetes, using echocardiographic data. Embase and MEDLINE databases were searched and data were assessed using random-effects meta-analyses, with findings presented as forest plots. From the 5015 studies found, 209 were screened using the full-text article. In total, 57 studies were included, together with 29 studies that were identified in a prior meta-analysis; these studies reported on the prevalence of LVSD (n=25 studies, 24,460 individuals), LVDD (n=65 studies, 25,729 individuals), HFrEF (n=4 studies, 4090 individuals), HFmrEF (n=2 studies, 2442 individuals) and/or HFpEF (n=8 studies, 5292 individuals), and on HF incidence (n=7 studies, 17,935 individuals). Using Hoy et al's risk-of-bias tool, we found that the studies included generally had a high risk of bias. They showed a prevalence of 43% (95% CI 37%, 50%) for LVDD, 17% (95% CI 7%, 35%) for HFpEF, 6% (95% CI 3%, 10%) for LVSD, 7% (95% CI 3%, 15%) for HFrEF, and 12% (95% CI 7%, 22%) for HFmrEF. For LVDD, grade I was found to be most prevalent. Additionally, we reported a higher incidence rate of HFpEF (7% [95% CI 4%, 11%]) than HFrEF 4% [95% CI 3%, 7%]). The evidence is limited by the heterogeneity of the diagnostic criteria over the years. The systematic section of this review provides new insights on the prevalence/incidence of HF in type 2 diabetes, unveiling a large pre-clinical target group with LVDD/HFpEF in which disease progression could be halted by early recognition and treatment.Registration PROSPERO ID CRD42022368035.