Circulating Interleukin-8 Dynamics Parallels Disease Course and Is Linked to Clinical Outcomes in Severe COVID-19.

Severe COVID-19 frequently features a systemic deluge of cytokines. Circulating cytokines that can stratify risks are useful for more effective triage and management. Here, we ran a machine-learning algorithm on a dataset of 36 plasma cytokines in a cohort of severe COVID-19 to identify cytokine/s useful for describing the dynamic clinical state in multiple regression analysis. We performed RNA-sequencing of circulating blood cells collected at different time-points. From a Bayesian Information Criterion analysis, a combination of interleukin-8 (IL-8), Eotaxin, and Interferon-γ (IFNγ) was found to be significantly linked to blood oxygenation over seven days. Individually testing the cytokines in receiver operator characteristics analyses identified IL-8 as a strong stratifier for clinical outcomes. Circulating IL-8 dynamics paralleled disease course. We also revealed key transitions in immune transcriptome in patients stratified for circulating IL-8 at three time-points. The study identifies plasma IL-8 as a key pathogenic cytokine linking systemic hyper-inflammation to the clinical outcomes in COVID-19.

Clinical Trial Subgroup Analyses to Investigate Clinical and Immunological Outcomes of Convalescent Plasma Therapy in Severe COVID-19.

Objective: To assess the clinical and immunological benefits of passive immunization using convalescent plasma therapy (CPT). Materials and Methods: A series of subclass analyses were performed on the previously published outcome data and accompanying clinical metadata from a completed randomized controlled trial (RCT) (Clinical Trial Registry of India, number CTRI/2020/05/025209). The subclass analyses were performed on the outcome data and accompanying clinical metadata from a completed RCT (patient recruitment between May 15, 2020 and October 31, 2020). Data on the plasma abundance of a large panel of cytokines from the same cohort of patients were also used to characterize the heterogeneity of the putative anti-inflammatory function of convalescent plasma (CP) in addition to passively providing neutralizing antibodies. Results: Although the primary clinical outcomes were not significantly different in the RCT across all age groups, significant immediate mitigation of hypoxia, reduction in hospital stay, and significant survival benefit were registered in younger (<67 years in our cohort) patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 and acute respiratory distress syndrome on receiving CPT. In addition to neutralizing the antibody content of CP, its anti-inflammatory proteome, by attenuation of the systemic cytokine deluge, significantly contributed to the clinical benefits of CPT. Conclusion: Subgroup analyses revealed that clinical benefits of CPT in severe coronavirus disease 2019 are linked to the anti-inflammatory protein content of CP apart from the anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 neutralizing antibody content.

Extending the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model to handle the false negative rate and symptom-based administration of COVID-19 diagnostic tests: SEIR-fansy.

False negative rates of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 diagnostic tests, together with selection bias due to prioritized testing can result in inaccurate modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics based on reported "case" counts. We propose an extension of the widely used Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model that accounts for misclassification error and selection bias, and derive an analytic expression for the basic reproduction number R0 as a function of false negative rates of the diagnostic tests and selection probabilities for getting tested. Analyzing data from the first two waves of the pandemic in India, we show that correcting for misclassification and selection leads to more accurate prediction in a test sample. We provide estimates of undetected infections and deaths between April 1, 2020 and August 31, 2021. At the end of the first wave in India, the estimated under-reporting factor for cases was at 11.1 (95% CI: 10.7,11.5) and for deaths at 3.58 (95% CI: 3.5,3.66) as of February 1, 2021, while they change to 19.2 (95% CI: 17.9, 19.9) and 4.55 (95% CI: 4.32, 4.68) as of July 1, 2021. Equivalently, 9.0% (95% CI: 8.7%, 9.3%) and 5.2% (95% CI: 5.0%, 5.6%) of total estimated infections were reported on these two dates, while 27.9% (95% CI: 27.3%, 28.6%) and 22% (95% CI: 21.4%, 23.1%) of estimated total deaths were reported. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the effect of misclassification and selection on estimation of R0 and prediction of future infections. A R-package SEIRfansy is developed for broader dissemination.

A phase 2 single center open label randomised control trial for convalescent plasma therapy in patients with severe COVID-19.

A single center open label phase 2 randomised control trial (Clinical Trial Registry of India No. CTRI/2020/05/025209) was done to assess clinical and immunological benefits of passive immunization using convalescent plasma therapy. At the Infectious Diseases and Beleghata General Hospital in Kolkata, India, 80 patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 disease and fulfilling the inclusion criteria (aged more than 18 years, with either mild ARDS having PaO2/FiO2 200-300 or moderate ARDS having PaO2/FiO2 100-200, not on mechanical ventilation) were recruited and randomized into either standard of care (SOC) arm (N = 40) or the convalescent plasma therapy (CPT) arm (N = 40). Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality by day 30 of enrolment and immunological correlates of response to therapy if any, for which plasma abundance of a large panel of cytokines was quantitated before and after intervention to assess the effect of CPT on the systemic hyper-inflammation encountered in these patients. The secondary outcomes were recovery from ARDS and time taken to negative viral RNA PCR as well as to report any adverse reaction to plasma therapy. Transfused convalescent plasma was characterized in terms of its neutralizing antibody content as well as proteome. The trial was completed and it was found that primary outcome of all-cause mortality was not significantly different among severe COVID-19 patients with ARDS randomized to two treatment arms (Mantel-Haenszel Hazard Ratio 0.6731, 95% confidence interval 0.3010-1.505, with a P value of 0.3424 on Mantel-Cox Log-rank test). No adverse effect was reported with CPT. In severe COVID-19 patients with mild or moderate ARDS no significant clinical benefit was registered in this clinical trial with convalescent plasma therapy in terms of prespecified outcomes.

Estimating the wave 1 and wave 2 infection fatality rates from SARS-CoV-2 in India.

OBJECTIVE: There has been much discussion and debate around the underreporting of COVID-19 infections and deaths in India. In this short report we first estimate the underreporting factor for infections from publicly available data released by the Indian Council of Medical Research on reported number of cases and national seroprevalence surveys. We then use a compartmental epidemiologic model to estimate the undetected number of infections and deaths, yielding estimates of the corresponding underreporting factors. We compare the serosurvey based ad hoc estimate of the infection fatality rate (IFR) with the model-based estimate. Since the first and second waves in India are intrinsically different in nature, we carry out this exercise in two periods: the first wave (April 1, 2020-January 31, 2021) and part of the second wave (February 1, 2021-May 15, 2021). The latest national seroprevalence estimate is from January 2021, and thus only relevant to our wave 1 calculations. RESULTS: Both wave 1 and wave 2 estimates qualitatively show that there is a large degree of "covert infections" in India, with model-based estimated underreporting factor for infections as 11.11 (95% credible interval (CrI) 10.71-11.47) and for deaths as 3.56 (95% CrI 3.48-3.64) for wave 1. For wave 2, underreporting factor for infections escalate to 26.77 (95% CrI 24.26-28.81) and to 5.77 (95% CrI 5.34-6.15) for deaths. If we rely on only reported deaths, the IFR estimate is 0.13% for wave 1 and 0.03% for part of wave 2. Taking underreporting of deaths into account, the IFR estimate is 0.46% for wave 1 and 0.18% for wave 2 (till May 15). Combining waves 1 and 2, as of May 15, while India reported a total of nearly 25 million cases and 270 thousand deaths, the estimated number of infections and deaths stand at 491 million (36% of the population) and 1.21 million respectively, yielding an estimated (combined) infection fatality rate of 0.25%. There is considerable variation in these estimates across Indian states. Up to date seroprevalence studies and mortality data are needed to validate these model-based estimates.

A comparison of five epidemiological models for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in India.

BACKGROUND: Many popular disease transmission models have helped nations respond to the COVID-19 pandemic by informing decisions about pandemic planning, resource allocation, implementation of social distancing measures, lockdowns, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. We study how five epidemiological models forecast and assess the course of the pandemic in India: a baseline curve-fitting model, an extended SIR (eSIR) model, two extended SEIR (SAPHIRE and SEIR-fansy) models, and a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model (ICM). METHODS: Using COVID-19 case-recovery-death count data reported in India from March 15 to October 15 to train the models, we generate predictions from each of the five models from October 16 to December 31. To compare prediction accuracy with respect to reported cumulative and active case counts and reported cumulative death counts, we compute the symmetric mean absolute prediction error (SMAPE) for each of the five models. For reported cumulative cases and deaths, we compute Pearson's and Lin's correlation coefficients to investigate how well the projected and observed reported counts agree. We also present underreporting factors when available, and comment on uncertainty of projections from each model. RESULTS: For active case counts, SMAPE values are 35.14% (SEIR-fansy) and 37.96% (eSIR). For cumulative case counts, SMAPE values are 6.89% (baseline), 6.59% (eSIR), 2.25% (SAPHIRE) and 2.29% (SEIR-fansy). For cumulative death counts, the SMAPE values are 4.74% (SEIR-fansy), 8.94% (eSIR) and 0.77% (ICM). Three models (SAPHIRE, SEIR-fansy and ICM) return total (sum of reported and unreported) cumulative case counts as well. We compute underreporting factors as of October 31 and note that for cumulative cases, the SEIR-fansy model yields an underreporting factor of 7.25 and ICM model yields 4.54 for the same quantity. For total (sum of reported and unreported) cumulative deaths the SEIR-fansy model reports an underreporting factor of 2.97. On October 31, we observe 8.18 million cumulative reported cases, while the projections (in millions) from the baseline model are 8.71 (95% credible interval: 8.63-8.80), while eSIR yields 8.35 (7.19-9.60), SAPHIRE returns 8.17 (7.90-8.52) and SEIR-fansy projects 8.51 (8.18-8.85) million cases. Cumulative case projections from the eSIR model have the highest uncertainty in terms of width of 95% credible intervals, followed by those from SAPHIRE, the baseline model and finally SEIR-fansy. CONCLUSIONS: In this comparative paper, we describe five different models used to study the transmission dynamics of the SARS-Cov-2 virus in India. While simulation studies are the only gold standard way to compare the accuracy of the models, here we were uniquely poised to compare the projected case-counts against observed data on a test period. The largest variability across models is observed in predicting the "total" number of infections including reported and unreported cases (on which we have no validation data). The degree of under-reporting has been a major concern in India and is characterized in this report. Overall, the SEIR-fansy model appeared to be a good choice with publicly available R-package and desired flexibility plus accuracy.

Incorporating false negative tests in epidemiological models for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and reconciling with seroprevalence estimates.

Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR)-type epidemiologic models, modeling unascertained infections latently, can predict unreported cases and deaths assuming perfect testing. We apply a method we developed to account for the high false negative rates of diagnostic RT-PCR tests for detecting an active SARS-CoV-2 infection in a classic SEIR model. The number of unascertained cases and false negatives being unobservable in a real study, population-based serosurveys can help validate model projections. Applying our method to training data from Delhi, India, during March 15-June 30, 2020, we estimate the underreporting factor for cases at 34-53 (deaths: 8-13) on July 10, 2020, largely consistent with the findings of the first round of serosurveys for Delhi (done during June 27-July 10, 2020) with an estimated 22.86% IgG antibody prevalence, yielding estimated underreporting factors of 30-42 for cases. Together, these imply approximately 96-98% cases in Delhi remained unreported (July 10, 2020). Updated calculations using training data during March 15-December 31, 2020 yield estimated underreporting factor for cases at 13-22 (deaths: 3-7) on January 23, 2021, which are again consistent with the latest (fifth) round of serosurveys for Delhi (done during January 15-23, 2021) with an estimated 56.13% IgG antibody prevalence, yielding an estimated range for the underreporting factor for cases at 17-21. Together, these updated estimates imply approximately 92-96% cases in Delhi remained unreported (January 23, 2021). Such model-based estimates, updated with latest data, provide a viable alternative to repeated resource-intensive serosurveys for tracking unreported cases and deaths and gauging the true extent of the pandemic.

EXTENDING THE SUSCEPTIBLE-EXPOSED-INFECTED-REMOVED(SEIR) MODEL TO HANDLE THE HIGH FALSE NEGATIVE RATE AND SYMPTOM-BASED ADMINISTRATION OF COVID-19 DIAGNOSTIC TESTS: SEIR-fansy.

The false negative rate of the diagnostic RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 has been reported to be substantially high. Due to limited availability of testing, only a non-random subset of the population can get tested. Hence, the reported test counts are subject to a large degree of selection bias. We consider an extension of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model under both selection bias and misclassification. We derive closed form expression for the basic reproduction number under such data anomalies using the next generation matrix method. We conduct extensive simulation studies to quantify the effect of misclassification and selection on the resultant estimation and prediction of future case counts. Finally we apply the methods to reported case-death-recovery count data from India, a nation with more than 5 million cases reported over the last seven months. We show that correcting for misclassification and selection can lead to more accurate prediction of case-counts (and death counts) using the observed data as a beta tester. The model also provides an estimate of undetected infections and thus an under-reporting factor. For India, the estimated under-reporting factor for cases is around 21 and for deaths is around 6. We develop an R-package (SEIRfansy) for broader dissemination of the methods.