RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: To assess the prognostic value of short-term change in biochemical markers as it relates to bone marrow lesions (BMLs) on MRI in knee osteoarthritis (OA) over 24 months and, furthermore, to assess the relationship between biochemical markers involved with tissue turnover and inflammation and BMLs on MRI. METHODS: Data from the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health OA Biomarkers Consortium within the Osteoarthritis Initiative (n = 600) was analyzed. BMLs were measured according to the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) system (0-3), in 15 knee subregions. Serum and urinary biochemical markers assessed were as follows: serum C-terminal crosslinked telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX-I), serum crosslinked N-telopeptide of type I collagen (NTX-I), urinary CTX-Iα and CTX-Iß, urinary NTX-I, urinary C-terminal cross-linked telopeptide of type II collagen (CTX-II), serum matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-degraded type I, II, and III collagen (C1M, C2M, C3M), serum high sensitivity propeptide of type IIb collagen (hsPRO-C2), and matrix metalloproteinase-generated neoepitope of C-reactive protein (CRPM). The association between change in biochemical markers over 12 months and BMLs over 24 months was examined using regression models adjusted for covariates. The relationship between C1M, C2M, C3M, hsPRO-C2, and CRPM and BMLs at baseline and over 24 months was examined. RESULTS: Increases in serum CTX-I and urinary CTX-Iß over 12 months were associated with increased odds of changes in the number of subregions affected by any BML at 24 months. Increase in hsPRO-C2 was associated with decreased odds of worsening in the number of subregions affected by any BML over 24 months. C1M and C3M were associated with BMLs affected at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term changes in serum CTX-I, hsPRO-C2, and urinary CTX-Iß hold the potential to be prognostic of BML progression on MRI. The association of C1M and C3M with baseline BMLs on MRI warrants further investigation.
