Reduced breast cancer mortality after 20+ years of follow-up in the Swedish randomized controlled mammography trials in Malmö, Stockholm, and Göteborg.

Objective To analyze the age- and trial-specific effects of the breast cancer screening trials with mammography in Malmö, Stockholm, and Göteborg. Methods The original trial files were linked to the Swedish Cancer and Cause of Death Registers to obtain date of breast cancer diagnosis and date and cause of death. Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using the evaluation model (only breast cancers diagnosed between date of randomization and date when the first screening round of the control group was completed were included in the analysis). Results Women aged 40-70 at randomization in the Malmö I and II, Stockholm, and Göteborg trials were followed-up for an average of 30, 22, 25, and 24 years, respectively. The overview of all trials resulted in a significant decrease of 15% in breast cancer mortality. The variation by consecutive 10-year age group at randomization was small-from 21% in the age group 40-49 to 11% in the age group 50-59. After adjustment for age, there was a significant reduction in breast cancer mortality in the Göteborg trial (26%), and a non-significant reduction in the Malmö I and II and Stockholm trials (12%, 15%, and 5.8%, respectively). Conclusions The overview showed a 15% significant relative reduction in breast cancer mortality due to invitation to mammography screening. Heterogeneity in age, trial time, attendance rates, and length of screening intervals may have contributed to the variation in effect between the trials.

Updated results of the Gothenburg Trial of Mammographic Screening.

BACKGROUND: There remain uncertainties about age-specific effects of breast cancer screening on mortality due to the disease. METHODS: In 1982, a randomized trial of mammographic screening every 18 months was started in Gothenburg, Sweden. Women between the ages of 39 and 49 years were randomized to an invitation to screening (intervention group; n = 11,792) or to usual care (the control group; n = 14,321). The corresponding numbers for women between the ages of 50 and 59 years were 10,112 and 15,997. Follow-up data for breast cancer mortality were available up to the end of 2007. Data were analyzed by Poisson regression with conservative variance estimates. RESULTS: There were 79 breast cancer deaths in the intervention arm and 156 in the control arm, and this meant a significant 30% reduction in breast cancer mortality with the offer of screening (relative risk [RR], 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.53-0.93; P = .01). In women aged 39 to 49 years, there was a significant 40% reduction in breast cancer mortality (RR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.43-0.85; P = .003). In the 50- to 59-year age group, there was a nonsignificant 18% breast cancer mortality reduction (RR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.54-1.26; P = .4). CONCLUSIONS: The policy of offering mammographic screening substantially reduces breast cancer mortality and can do so in women younger than 50 years. Cancer 2016;122:1832-5. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Different measures of smoking exposure and mammographic density in postmenopausal Norwegian women: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Recent cohort studies have suggested an increased risk of breast cancer with long duration of smoking, and with smoking initiation before first birth. Cigarette smoking may have both carcinogenic effects and antiestrogenic effects on the breast tissue. We decided to examine the relationship between different measures of smoking exposure and mammographic density. METHODS: Lifetime smoking history was collected through interview and questionnaires among 907 postmenopausal participants in the Tromsø Mammography and Breast Cancer study. The mammograms were obtained from the governmental Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Mammograms were classified according to the percentage and absolute mammographic densities using a previously validated computer-assisted method. RESULTS: Sixty-five percent of the women reported having ever smoked cigarettes, while 34% were current smokers. After adjustment for age, age at first birth, parity, age at menopause, postmenopausal hormone therapy use, and body mass index, smoking was inversely associated with both measures of mammographic density (both trends P < 0.01). Both current smokers and former smokers had significantly lower adjusted mean percentage mammographic density compared with never smokers (P = 0.003 and P = 0.006, respectively). An inverse dose-response relationship with mammographic density was found between both the number of cigarettes and the number of pack-years smoked among current smokers. Current smokers who smoked 11 cigarettes or more daily had a 3.7% absolute (36% relative difference) lower percentage mammographic density compared with current smokers who smoked seven cigarettes or less daily (P = 0.008). When former smokers were stratified according to time since smoking cessation, we found that women who had stopped smoking less than 24 years ago had a significantly lower mean percentage mammographic density compared with never smokers (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: We found modest inverse dose-response associations between numbers of cigarettes and of pack-years smoked and both measures of mammographic density among current smokers. Former smokers who had stopped smoking less than 24 years ago also had a statistically significantly lower mean percentage mammographic density when compared with never smokers. These findings are consistent with an antiestrogenic effect of cigarette smoking on the breast tissue.

Endogenous sex hormones, prolactin and mammographic density in postmenopausal Norwegian women.

The associations between endogenous sex hormone levels and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women are well established. Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, and possibly an intermediate marker. However, the results from studies on the associations between endogenous sex hormones and mammographic density are conflicting. The authors examined the associations between circulating levels of sex hormones, sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and prolactin and mammographic densities among postmenopausal women not currently using postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT). The authors also examined if insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) levels influenced the association between estrogen and mammographic density. Altogether, 722 postmenopausal participants in the Norwegian governmental mammographic screening program had endogenous hormone concentrations measured. Mammograms were classified according to percent and absolute mammographic density using a previously validated computer-assisted method. After adjustment for age, number of children, age at menopause, body mass index and HT use, both plasma concentrations of SHBG (p-trend = 0.003) and estrone (p-trend = 0.07) were positively associated with percent mammographic density. When the analyses were stratified according to median IGF-I concentration, the weak association between estrone and mammographic density was strengthened among women with IGF-I levels below median, while the association disappeared among women with over median IGF-I levels (p for interaction = 0.02). In summary, the authors found a positive association between plasma SHBG levels and mammographic densities among 722 postmenopausal Norwegian women not currently using HT. Further, the authors found a positive but weak association between plasma estrone concentration and mammographic density, which appeared to be modified by IGF-I levels.

Insulin-like growth factor and mammographic density in postmenopausal Norwegian women.

Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) is associated with breast cancer risk among premenopausal women but rarely among postmenopausal women. Recent data from two European studies suggested an increased risk of breast cancer with increasing levels of IGF-I among women >50 years old or among postmenopausal hormone therapy users >or=55 years old. Mammographic density is one of the strongest risk factors, and possibly an intermediate marker, for breast cancer. We examined the relationship between IGF and mammographic density among postmenopausal women overall and according to hormone therapy use. Altogether, 977 postmenopausal participants in the Norwegian governmental mammographic screening program had IGF concentrations measured by ELISA. Mammograms were classified according to percent and absolute mammographic densities using a previously validated computer-assisted method. After adjustment for age, number of children, age at menopause, body mass index, and hormone therapy use, both plasma IGF-I concentration (P(trend) = 0.02) and IGF-I/IGF binding protein 3 ratio (P(trend) = 0.02) were positively associated with percent mammographic density. The magnitudes of differences in percent mammographic density between women in the lowest and highest quartiles of IGF-I concentrations were 1.5% absolute difference and 21% relative difference. These associations were similar with absolute mammographic density as the outcome variable. When the analyses were stratified according to hormone therapy use, the associations between IGF-I and mammographic density were significant among noncurrent users (P(trend) = 0.03). In conclusion, we found a positive but weak association between plasma IGF-I concentrations and both percent and absolute mammographic densities among postmenopausal women. These associations were found among noncurrent hormone therapy users but not among current users.

Importance of comparison of current and prior mammograms in breast cancer screening.

PURPOSE: To retrospectively determine the influence of comparing current mammograms with prior mammograms on breast cancer detection in screening and to investigate a protocol in which prior mammograms are viewed only when necessary. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional review board approval was not required. Participants gave written informed consent. Twelve experienced screening radiologists read 160 soft-copy screening mammograms twice, once with and once without prior mammograms. Eighty mammograms were obtained in women in whom breast cancer was diagnosed later; the other 80 mammograms had been reported as normal or benign. All cancers were visible in retrospect. Readers located potential abnormalities, estimated likelihood of malignancy for each finding, and indicated whether prior mammograms were considered necessary. The effect of prior mammograms on detection was determined by computing the mean lesion localized fraction in a range of low fractions of nonlesion locations corresponding to operating points in screening. Scores for both reading sessions were combined to assess the effect of making prior mammograms available only when requested. Data were analyzed by comparing the number of localized lesions between the two reading conditions with a paired two-tailed Student t test and applying a linear mixed model to test differences in average mean lesion localized fraction between reading conditions. P values less than .05 indicated statistical significance. RESULTS: Without prior mammograms, significantly more annotations were made. When only positive cases were considered, no difference was observed. Reading performance was significantly better when prior screening mammograms were available. At fixed lesion localized fraction, nonlesion localized fraction was reduced by 44% (P<.001) on average when prior mammograms were read. Performance was also increased for combined reading mode (ie, when prior mammograms were available on request only). However, this increase was smaller than that when prior mammograms were always available. Prior mammograms were requested in 24%-33% of all cases and were requested more often in positive cases. CONCLUSION: Comparison with prior mammograms significantly improves overall performance and can reduce referrals due to nonlesion locations. Limiting the availability of prior mammograms to cases selected by the reader reduces the beneficial effect of prior mammograms.

Different types of postmenopausal hormone therapy and mammographic density in Norwegian women.

Postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) is associated with increased risk of breast cancer. The HTs used in Scandinavia is associated with higher risk estimates than those used in most other countries. Mammographic density is one of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer, and possibly an intermediate marker for breast cancer. We decided to examine the relationship between use of different types of HT and mammographic density in Norwegian women. Altogether, 1,007 postmenopausal participants in the governmental mammographic screening program were asked about current and previous HT use. Mammograms were classified according to percent and absolute mammographic density. Overall, current users of HT had on average 3.6% higher mean percent mammographic density when compared with never users (p < 0.001). After adjustment for age at screening, number of children and BMI in a multivariate model, women using the continuous estradiol (E(2)) plus norethisterone acetate (NETA) combination had a mean percent mammographic density significantly higher than never users (6.1% absolute difference). Those using the continuous E(2) plus NETA combination had an 4.8% (absolute difference) higher mean percent mammographic density after <5 years of use when compared with never users, while the corresponding number for >or=5 years of use was 7% (p-trend < 0.001). We found similar associations when absolute mammographic density was used as the outcome variable. In summary, our study shows a statistical significant positive dose-response association between current use of the continuous E(2) plus NETA combination and both measures of mammographic density.

Number and characteristics of breast cancer cases diagnosed in four periods in the screening interval of a biennial population-based screening programme.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the distribution and prognostic tumour characteristics of interval breast cancers diagnosed in four periods after index screen (1-6, 7-12, 13-18 and 19+ months) in a population-based screening programme inviting women aged 50-69 years to biennial screening. SETTING: The Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) Methods: In all, 848 interval breast cancer cases were diagnosed in 437,235 screening examinations. The distribution and prognostic tumour characteristics of the interval cancers diagnosed in four periods in the screening interval will be described. Proportions and rates will be compared by chi(2)-test. RESULTS: A total of 70% of the interval cancers in the NBCSP were diagnosed in the second year of the interval. Except for tumour size (P = 0.027), we found no evidence of adverse prognostic breast characteristics (grade, lymph node involvement, oestrogen and progesterone receptor positive) in invasive tumours diagnosed during the second versus the first year of the screening interval (Chi square P > 0.05 for all). The prognostic characteristics of the tumours did not differ by age groups. It was a decreasing interval cancer rate per 10,000 women-years by age. CONCLUSION: The risk of interval cancer increases by time after index screen, and 70% of the interval cancers in the NBCSP were diagnosed in the second year of the interval. Prognostic histological tumour characteristics did not differ by time after index screen, thus mean sojourn time (tumour growth rate) seems important for stating an optimal screening interval in a population-based screening programme.

Influence of review design on percentages of missed interval breast cancers: retrospective study of interval cancers in a population-based screening program.

PURPOSE: To retrospectively investigate whether different review designs have an influence on the estimate of missed interval cancer in a population-based breast cancer screening program. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program invites women aged 50-69 years to undergo biennial screening mammography. The current study was part of the evaluation and scientific aspects of the screening program and thus was covered by the general ethical approval of the screening program as a part of the Cancer Registry of Norway. All participants signed an informed consent that specified that data related to their screening visit could be used for evaluation and scientific purposes. Six radiologists (9-34 years of experience in mammography) reviewed previously obtained bilateral two-view screening and diagnostic mammograms of 231 interval cancers, 117 screening-detected cancers, and 373 normal cases. Four review designs were used: individual and paired blinded review and individual and consensus informed review. A five-point interpretation scale was used to reclassify the cancers into missed cancers, minimal signs, and true cancers. The number and proportion of subgroups were estimated with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Of 231 interval cancers, 46 (19.9%) were reclassified as missed cancers with the mixed blinded individual review and 54 (23.4%) were classified as missed cancers with the mixed blinded paired review. Eighty-three cancers (35.9%) were classified as missed cancers with individual informed review, and 78 (33.8%) were classified as missed cancers with consensus informed review. Thirty-nine cancers (16.8%) were reclassified as missed when four or more radiologists assigned a score of 2 or more (probably benign or more suspicious); three cancers (1.3%) were reclassified as missed when a score of 4 or more (probably malignant or more suspicious) was assigned. CONCLUSION: The percentage of interval cancers classified as missed ranged from 1.3% to 35.9% according to review design. To encourage learning, a review protocol should include both blinded and informed designs.

Percentage density, Wolfe's and Tabár's mammographic patterns: agreement and association with risk factors for breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this report was to classify mammograms according to four methods and to examine their agreement and their relationship to selected risk factors for breast cancer. METHOD: Mammograms and epidemiological data were collected from 987 women, aged 55 to 71 years, attending the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Two readers each classified the mammograms according to a quantitative method (Cumulus or Madena software) and one reader according to two qualitative methods (Wolfe and Tabár patterns). Mammograms classified in the reader-specific upper quartile of percentage density, Wolfe's P2 and DY patterns, or Tabár's IV and V patterns, were categorized as high-risk density patterns and the remaining mammograms as low-risk density patterns. We calculated intra-reader and inter-reader agreement and estimated prevalence odds ratios of having high-risk mammographic density patterns according to selected risk factors for breast cancer. RESULTS: The Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.86 for the two quantitative density measurements. There was moderate agreement between the Wolfe and Tabár classifications (Kappa = 0.51; 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.56). Age at screening, number of children and body mass index (BMI) showed a statistically significant inverse relationship with high-risk density patterns for all four methods (all P < 0.05). After adjustment for percentage density, the Wolfe classification was not associated with any of the risk factors for breast cancer, whereas the association with number of children and BMI remained statistically significant for the Tabár classification. Adjustment for Wolfe or Tabár patterns did not alter the associations between these risk factors and percentage mammographic density. CONCLUSION: The four assessments methods seem to capture the same overall associations with risk factors for breast cancer. Our results indicate that the quantitative methods convey additional information over the qualitative methods.

Metabolic and hormonal profiles: HDL cholesterol as a plausible biomarker of breast cancer risk. The Norwegian EBBA Study.

Low serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is an important component of the metabolic syndrome and has recently been related to increased breast cancer risk in overweight and obese women. We therefore questioned whether serum HDL-C might be a biologically sound marker of breast cancer risk. We obtained cross-sectional data among 206 healthy women ages 25 to 35 years who participated in the Norwegian EBBA study. We included salivary ovarian steroid concentrations assessed by daily samples throughout one entire menstrual cycle, metabolic profile with measures of adiposity [body mass index (BMI) and truncal fat percentage], serum concentrations of lipids and hormones (insulin, leptin, testosterone, dehydroepiandrostendione sulfate, insulin-like growth factor-I, and its principal binding protein), and mammographic parenchymal pattern. We examined how components of the metabolic syndrome, including low serum HDL-C, were related to levels of hormones, and free estradiol concentration in particular, and studied predictors of mammographic parenchymal patterns in regression models. In women with BMI > or = 23.6 kg/m(2) (median), overall average salivary estradiol concentration dropped by 2.4 pmol/L (0.7 pg/mL; 13.2% change in mean for the total population) by each 0.33 mmol/L (12.8 mg/dl; 1SD) increase in serum HDL-C (P = 0.03; P(interaction) = 0.03). A subgroup of women characterized by both relatively high BMI (> or =23.6 kg/m(2)) and high serum LDL-C/HDL-C ratio (> or = 2.08; 75 percentile) had substantially higher levels of salivary estradiol by cycle day than other women (P = 0.001). BMI was the strongest predictor of overall average estradiol with a direct relationship (P< 0.001). Serum HDL-C was inversely related to serum leptin, insulin, and dehydroepiandrostendione sulfate (P < 0.001, P < 0.01, and P < 0.05, respectively). There was a direct relationship between breast density and healthy metabolic profiles (low BMI, high serum HDL-C; P < 0.001) and salivary progesterone concentrations (P < 0.05). Our findings support the hypothesis that low serum HDL-C might reflect an unfavorable hormonal profile with, in particular, increased levels of estrogens and gives further clues to biomarkers of breast cancer risk especially in overweight and obese women.

Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: estimates of overdiagnosis from two trials of mammographic screening for breast cancer.

Randomised controlled trials have shown that the policy of mammographic screening confers a substantial and significant reduction in breast cancer mortality. This has often been accompanied, however, by an increase in breast cancer incidence, particularly during the early years of a screening programme, which has led to concerns about overdiagnosis, that is to say, the diagnosis of disease that, if left undetected and therefore untreated, would not become symptomatic. We used incidence data from two randomised controlled trials of mammographic screening, the Swedish Two-county Trial and the Gothenburg Trial, to establish the timing and magnitude of any excess incidence of invasive disease and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the study groups, to ascertain whether the excess incidence of DCIS reported early in a screening trial is balanced by a later deficit in invasive disease and provide explicit estimates of the rate of 'real' and non-progressive 'overdiagnosed' tumours from the study groups of the trials. We used a multistate model for overdiagnosis and used Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parameters. After taking into account the effect of lead time, we estimated that less than 5% of cases diagnosed at prevalence screen and less than 1% of cases diagnosed at incidence screens are being overdiagnosed. Overall, we estimate overdiagnosis to be around 1% of all cases diagnosed in screened populations. These estimates are, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. Our results suggest that overdiagnosis in mammography screening is a minor phenomenon, but further studies with very large numbers are required for more precise estimation.

The Gothenburg Breast Screening Trial.

BACKGROUND: Although there is evidence for a reduction in breast carcinoma mortality with mammographic screening, some doubts have been expressed, and there is still uncertainty regarding the age specific effects. METHODS: The authors report on a randomized, controlled trial of mammographic screening for breast carcinoma that was conducted among 51,611 women (21,650 women who were invited to a screening [the study group] and 29,961 women in a control group) ages 39-59 years in Gothenburg, Sweden. Among women in the study group, the screening interval was 18 months. The screening phase of the trial took place in 1982-1991, and follow-up for breast carcinoma mortality continued until December 31, 1996. Mortality from breast carcinoma was analyzed using a Poisson regression model. Overall and age specific effects of invitation to mammography screening on breast carcinoma mortality were calculated. Three mortality effects were estimated: the effect on deaths from breast tumors diagnosed during the screening phase of the trial, as assessed by an independent Endpoint Committee (the EPC evaluation model); the effect on deaths from breast carcinoma diagnosed during the screening phase of the trial, as determined by data from the National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Register (the SCB evaluation model); and the effect on deaths from all breast carcinomas diagnosed up to December 31, 1996, as determined by the National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Register (the SCB follow-up model). RESULTS: A nonsignificant, 21% reduction in the rate of mortality from breast carcinoma with invitation to screening was observed using the EPC evaluation model (relative risk [RR], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.58-1.08; P = 0.14); and a borderline significant, 23% rate reduction was observed using the SCB follow-up model (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-1.00; P = 0.05). Age specific analyses yielded greater mortality rate reductions for the groups of women ages 39-44 years, 45-49 years, and 55-59 years, but there was no mortality rate reduction in the group of women ages 50-54 years. The effects of invitation to mammographic screening on the incidence of lymph node-positive disease closely paralleled the effects of invitation on breast carcinoma mortality. The effect on breast carcinoma mortality was consistent with the effect on all-cause mortality, suggesting no bias in classification of cause of death. Breast carcinoma incidence in the study group was almost identical to the incidence in the control group after trial by screening had ended in the control group (RR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88-1.09; P = 0.7). CONCLUSIONS: The current results support the commonly observed 20-30% reduction in breast carcinoma mortality with invitation to screening. The impression that screening is less effective in women younger than 50 years may be an oversimplification. Age specific effects should be a target for further research.

Long-term effects of mammography screening: updated overview of the Swedish randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: There has been much debate about the value of screening mammography. Here we update the overview of the Swedish randomised controlled trials on mammography screening up to and including 1996. The Kopparberg part of the Two-County trial was not available for the overview, but the continuation of the Malmö trial (MMST II) has been added. The article also contains basic data from the trials that have not been presented before. Methods The trials (n=247010, invited group 129750, control group 117260) have been followed up by record linkage to the Swedish Cancer and Cause of Death Registers. The relative risks (RR) for breast cancer death and mortality were calculated for the invited and the control groups. The trial-specific as well as the age-specific effects were analysed. RRs were calculated by the density method, with total person-time experience of the cohort by time interval of follow-up as a basis for estimating mortality rates. We calculated weighted RRs and 95% CI with the Mantel-Haenszel procedure. FINDINGS: The median trial time-the time from randomisation until the first round was completed for the control group or if the control group was not invited, until end of follow-up-was 6.5 years (range 3.0-18.1). The median follow-up time, the time from randomisation, to the end of follow-up, was 15.8 years (5.8-20.2). There were 511 breast cancer deaths in 1864770 women-years in the invited groups and 584 breast cancer deaths in 1688440 women-years in the control groups, a significant 21% reduction in breast cancer mortality (RR=0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.89). The reduction was greatest in the age group 60-69 years at entry (33%). Looking at 5-year age groups, there were statistically significant effects in the age groups 55-59, 60-64, and 65-69 years (RR=0.76, 0.68, and 0.69, respectively). There was a small effect in women 50-54 years at randomisation (RR=0.95). The benefit in terms of cumulative breast cancer mortality started to emerge at about 4 years after randomisation and continued to increase to about 10 years. Thereafter the benefit in absolute terms was maintained throughout the period of observation. The age-adjusted relative risk for the total mortality was 0.98 (0.96-1.00). INTERPRETATION: The advantageous effect of breast screening on breast cancer mortality persists after long-term follow-up. The recent criticism against the Swedish randomised controlled trials is misleading and scientifically unfounded.