Risk of dengue for tourists and teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: This year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001-2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expected symptomatic dengue cases ranged from 26 (PR, 10th-100th percentile: 5-334 cases) to 59 (EB, 95% credible interval: 30-77 cases) among foreign tourists but none are expected among teams. These numbers will highly depend on actual travel schedules and dengue immunity among visitors. Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively). CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The risk of dengue among tourists during the World Cup is expected to be small due to immunity among the Brazil host population provided by last year's epidemic with the same DENV serotypes. Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events.

Persistent postmastectomy pain in breast cancer survivors: analysis of clinical, demographic, and psychosocial factors.

UNLABELLED: Persistent postmastectomy pain (PPMP) is increasingly recognized as a major individual and public health problem. Although previous studies have investigated surgical, medical, and demographic risk factors, in this study we aimed to more clearly elucidate the relationship of psychosocial factors to PPMP. Postmastectomy patients (611) were queried about pain location, severity, and burden 38.3 ± 35.4 months postoperatively. Validated questionnaires for depressive symptoms, anxiety, sleep, perceived stress, emotional stability, somatization, and catastrophizing were administered. Detailed surgical, medical, and treatment information was abstracted from patients' medical records. One third (32.5%) of patients reported PPMP, defined as ≥3/10 pain severity in the breast, axilla, side, or arm, which did not vary according to time since surgery. Multiple regression analysis revealed significant and independent associations between PPMP and psychosocial factors, including catastrophizing, somatization, anxiety, and sleep disturbance. Conversely, treatment-related factors including surgical type, axillary node dissection, surgical complication, recurrence, tumor size, radiation, and chemotherapy were not significantly associated with PPMP. These data confirm previous studies suggesting that PPMP is relatively common and provide new evidence of significant associations between psychosocial characteristics such as catastrophizing with PPMP, regardless of the surgical and medical treatment that patients receive, which may lead to novel strategies in PPMP prevention and treatment. PERSPECTIVE: This cross-sectional cohort study of 611 postmastectomy patients investigated severity, location, and frequency of pain a mean of 3.2 years after surgery. Significant associations between pain severity and individual psychosocial attributes such as catastrophizing were found, whereas demographic, surgical, medical, and treatment-related factors were not associated with persistent pain.