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PURPOSE: To identify the optimal statistical approach for predicting the risk of fragility fractures in the presence of competing event of death. METHODS: We used real-world data from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study that has monitored 3035 elderly participants for bone health and mortality. Fragility fractures were ascertained radiologically. Mortality was confirmed by the State Registry. We considered four statistical models for predicting fracture risk: (i) conventional Cox's proportional hazard model, (ii) cause-specific model, (iii) Fine-Gray sub-distribution model, and (iv) multistate model. These models were fitted and validated in the development (60% of the original sample) and validation (40%) subsets, respectively. The model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration analyses. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.3 years (IQR: 7.2, 16.2), 628 individuals (34.5%) in the development cohort fractured, and 630 (34.6%) died without a fracture. Neither the discrimination nor the 5-year prediction performance was significantly different among the models, though the conventional model tended to overestimate fracture risk (calibration-in-the-large index = - 0.24; 95% CI: - 0.43, - 0.06). For 10-year risk prediction, the multistate model (calibration-in-the-large index = - 0.05; 95% CI: - 0.20, 0.10) outperformed the cause-specific (- 0.23; - 0.30, - 0.08), Fine-Gray (- 0.31; - 0.46, - 0.16), and conventional model (- 0.54; - 0.70, - 0.39) which significantly overestimated fracture risk. CONCLUSION: Adjustment for competing risk of death has minimum impact on the short-term prediction of fracture. However, the multistate model yields the most accurate prediction of long-term fracture risk and should be considered for predictive research in the elderly, who are also at high mortality risk. Fracture risk assessment might be compromised by the competing event of death. This study, using real-world data found a multistate model was superior to the current competing risk methods in fracture risk assessment. A multistate model is considered an optimal statistical method for predictive research in the elderly.
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RATIONALE: Comorbidities are common in fracture patients, but the interaction between fracture and comorbidities remains unclear. This study aimed to define specific multimorbidity clusters in older adults and quantify the association between the multimorbidity clusters and fracture risk. METHODS: This nationwide cohort study includes 1.7 million adults in Denmark aged ≥50 years who were followed from 2001 through 2014 for an incident low-trauma fracture. Chronic diseases and fractures were identified from the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register. Latent class analysis and Cox's regression were conducted to define the clusters and quantify fracture risk, respectively. RESULTS: The study included 793 815 men (age: 64 ± 10) and 873 524 women (65.5 ± 11), with a third having ≥1 chronic disease. The pre-existent chronic diseases grouped individuals into low-multimorbidity (80.3% in men, 83.6% in women), cardiovascular (12.5%, 10.6%), malignant (4.1%, 3.8%), diabetic (2.4%, 2.0%) and hepatic clusters (0.7%, men only). These clusters distinguished individuals with advanced, complex, or late-stage disease from those having earlier-stage disease. During a median follow-up of 14 years (IQR: 6.5, 14), 95 372 men and 212 498 women sustained an incident fracture. The presence of multimorbidity was associated with a significantly greater risk of fracture, independent of age and sex. Importantly, the multimorbidity clusters had the highest discriminative performance in assessing fracture risk, whereas the strength of their association with fracture risk equalled or exceeded that of both the individual chronic diseases most prevalent in each cluster and of counts-based comorbidity indices. CONCLUSIONS: Future fracture prevention strategies should take comorbidities into account. Multimorbidity clusters may provide greater insight into fracture risk than individual diseases or counts-based comorbidity indices.
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Fracturas Óseas , Multimorbilidad , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Anciano , Persona de Mediana Edad , Dinamarca/epidemiología , Fracturas Óseas/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Enfermedad Crónica/epidemiología , Sistema de Registros , Análisis por Conglomerados , Incidencia , Anciano de 80 o más AñosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Obesity-associated gonadal dysfunction is a common comorbidity in patients seeking weight loss interventions. We examined the incremental effect of weight loss on gonadal axes in men and women over 3 years. Changes in sex hormones were compared between dietary intervention (Diet) and bariatric procedures: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), sleeve gastrectomy (SG) and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB). Additional analysis assessed changes in corticotropic, somatotropic and thyroid axes after weight loss interventions. METHODS: This prospective, observational study included 61 adults with Body Mass Index >30 kg/m2, mean age 51 (SD = 11) years. Endocrine parameters were measured at baseline and at 6 timepoints over 36-months. RESULTS: For each 1 kg of weight lost, between baseline and 36 months, total testosterone increased by 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2%, 1.0%, p = 0.002) in males and decreased by 0.8% (95% CI: -1.4%, -0.3%, p = 0.003) in females. These changes remained statistically significant when controlled for age and for menopausal status in females. At 36 months, in comparison with Diet, RYGB women had lower total testosterone by 54% (95% CI: -90%, -17%, p = 0.004), reduced free androgen index (FAI) by 65% (95% CI; -114%, -17%, p = 0.009) while SG had reduced FAI by 39% (95% CI; -77%, 0%, p = 0.05). No such differences between groups were noted for male subjects. Adrenocorticotropic hormone declined by 0.3% (95% CI: 0.0, -0.5%, p = 0.05), insulin-like growth factor-1 increased by 0.4% (95% CI; 0.2%, 0.7%, p = 0.005), without such thyrotrophin change for each 1 kg of weight loss, for entire cohort, over 36 months. CONCLUSIONS: The testosterone changes observed in this study were proportional to the amount of weight loss. In females, reduction in androgens was independent of age and menopausal status and more pronounced after bariatric procedures. This study finding warrants further clinical research to explore an impact of androgen reduction on functional and cognitive status in postmenopausal women. The observed changes in pituitary hormones may contribute to the metabolic benefits of bariatric surgery.
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Importance: A high proportion of patients who sustain a fracture have multimorbidity. However, the association of multimorbidity with postfracture adverse outcomes, such as subsequent fractures and premature mortality, has not been widely explored. Objective: To examine the association of multimorbidity and self-rated health with subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included participants from New South Wales, Australia, in the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study (n = 267â¯357). Participants were recruited from July 2005 to December 2009 and followed up from the date of the incident fracture until subsequent fracture, death, or the end of the study (April 2017), whichever occurred first, with questionnaire data linked to hospital admission and medication records. Data analysis was reported between March and September 2023. Exposures: Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score and self-rated health (SRH). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were subsequent fracture or mortality after an incident fracture. Associations between SRH measures and subsequent fracture and mortality were also assessed. All analyses were stratified by sex given the different fracture and mortality risk profiles of females and males. Results: Of 25â¯280 adults who sustained incident fractures, 16â¯191 (64%) were female (mean [SD] age, 74 [12] years) and 9089 (36%) were male (mean [SD] age, 74 [13] years). During a median follow-up time of 2.8 years (IQR, 1.1-5.2 years), 2540 females (16%) and 1135 males (12%) sustained a subsequent fracture and 2281 females (14%) and 2140 males (24%) died without a subsequent fracture. Compared with a CCI score of less than 2, those with a CCI score of 2 to 3 had an increased risk of subsequent fracture (females: hazard ratio [HR], 1.16 [95% CI, 1.05-1.27]; males: HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09-1.43]) and mortality (females: HR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.99-2.40]; males: HR, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.71-2.09]). Those with a CCI score of 4 or greater had greater risks of subsequent fracture (females: HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.12-1.58]; males: HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.21-1.81]) and mortality (females: HR, 4.48 [95% CI, 3.97-5.06]; males: HR, 3.82 [95% CI 3.41-4.29]). Self-rated health was also significantly associated with subsequent fracture and mortality. Those reporting the poorest health and quality of life had the highest subsequent fracture risks, and their mortality risks were even higher. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, both CCI and SRH measures were associated with increased risk of subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture, underscoring the importance of managing the care of patients with comorbidities who sustain a fracture.
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Fracturas Óseas , Multimorbilidad , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Anciano , Estudios Prospectivos , Fracturas Óseas/epidemiología , Fracturas Óseas/mortalidad , Nueva Gales del Sur/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano de 80 o más AñosRESUMEN
Importance: The relationship between self-reported walking limitation, a proxy of muscle function, and fracture risk has not been investigated. Objective: To examine the association between a self-reported walking limitation of 1000 m or less and 5-year risk of fracture. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study compared individuals with various degrees of walking ability limitation at 1000 m (a little limitation and a lot of limitation) and those without limitation (no limitation) accounting for age, falls, prior fractures, and weight. Participants from the ongoing population-based Sax Institute 45 and Up Study were followed from recruitment (2005-2008) for 5 years (2010-2013). Data analysis was conducted from July 2020 to September 2023. Exposure: Self-reported walking limitation. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident fracture and site-specific fractures (hip, vertebral, and nonhip nonvertebral [NHNV] fractures). Results: Among the 266â¯912 participants enrolled in the 45 and Up Study, 238â¯969 were included, with 126â¯015 (53%) women (mean [SD] age, 63 [11] years) and 112â¯954 (47%) men (mean [SD] age, 61 [11] years). Approximately 20% reported a degree of limitation in walking 1000 m or less at baseline (39â¯324 women [24%]; 23â¯191 men [21%]). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 4.1 (0.8) years, 7190 women and 4267 men experienced an incident fracture. Compared with participants who reported no walking limitations, a little limitation and a lot of limitation were associated with higher risk of fracture (a little limitation among women: hazard ratio [HR], 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23-1.41; a little limitation among men: HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.34-1.60; a lot of limitation among women: HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.49-1.71; a lot of limitation among men: HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.86-2.22). Approximately 60% of fractures were attributable to walking limitation. The association was significant for hip, vertebral, and NHNV fracture and ranged between a 21% increase to a greater than 219% increase. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of 238â¯969 participants, self-reported walking limitations were associated with increased risk of fracture. These findings suggest that walking ability should be sought by clinicians to identify high-risk candidates for further assessment.