RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Three tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC). METHODS: We analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope. RESULTS: The AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the Manchester formula; 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.56-0.62) for PredictCBC-1A (for settings where BRCA1/2 mutation status is available) and PredictCBC-1B (for the general population), respectively. The E/O at 10 years: 0.82 (95% CI 0.51-1.32) for CBCrisk; 1.53 (95% CI 0.63-3.73) for the Manchester formula; 1.28 (95% CI 0.63-2.58) for PredictCBC-1A and 1.35 (95% CI 0.65-2.77) for PredictCBC-1B. The calibration slope was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.50) for CBCrisk; 0.90 (95% CI 0.79-1.02) for PredictCBC-1A; 0.81 (95% CI 0.63-0.99) for PredictCBC-1B, and 0.39 (95% CI 0.34-0.43) for the Manchester formula. CONCLUSIONS: Current CBC risk prediction tools provide only moderate discrimination and the Manchester formula was poorly calibrated. Better predictors and re-calibration are needed to improve CBC prediction and to identify low- and high-CBC risk patients for clinical decision-making.
Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama/patología , Toma de Decisiones Clínicas , Neoplasias Primarias Secundarias/patología , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Adulto , Neoplasias de la Mama/metabolismo , Neoplasias de la Mama/cirugía , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Agencias Internacionales , Mastectomía , Neoplasias Primarias Secundarias/metabolismo , Neoplasias Primarias Secundarias/cirugía , Pronóstico , Receptor ErbB-2/metabolismo , Receptores de Estrógenos/metabolismo , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
The 1100delC mutation in the CHEK2 gene has a carrier frequency of up to 1.5% in individuals from North-West Europe. Women heterozygous for 1100delC have an increased breast cancer risk (odds ratio 2.7). To explore the prevalence and clinical consequences of 1100delC homozygosity in the Netherlands, we genotyped a sporadic breast cancer hospital-based cohort, a group of non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer families, and breast tumors from a tumor tissue bank. Three 1100delC homozygous patients were found in the cohort of 1434 sporadic breast cancer patients, suggesting an increased breast cancer risk for 1100delC homozygotes (odds ratio 3.4, 95% confidence interval 0.4-32.6, P=0.3). Another 1100delC homozygote was found in 592 individuals from 108 non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer families, and two more were found after testing 1706 breast tumors and confirming homozygosity on their wild-type DNA. Follow-up data was available for five homozygous patients, and remarkably, three of them had developed contralateral breast cancer. A possible relationship between 1100delC and lung cancer risk was investigated in 457 unrelated lung cancer patients but could not be confirmed. Due to the small number of 1100delC homozygotes identified, the breast cancer risk estimate associated with this genotype had limited accuracy but is probably higher than the risk in heterozygous females. Screening for CHEK2 1100delC could be beneficial in countries with a relatively high allele frequency.
Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama/genética , Quinasa de Punto de Control 2/genética , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Neoplasias Pulmonares/genética , Adulto , Anciano , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/patología , Europa (Continente) , Femenino , Genotipo , Heterocigoto , Homocigoto , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiología , Neoplasias Pulmonares/patología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mutación , Países Bajos , Linaje , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Seven SNPs in five genomic loci were recently found to confer a mildly increased risk of breast cancer. METHODS: We have investigated the correlations between disease characteristics and the patient genotypes of these SNPs in an unselected prospective cohort of 1,267 consecutive patients with primary breast cancer. RESULTS: Heterozygote carriers and minor allele homozygote carriers for SNP rs889312 in the MAP3K1 gene were less likely to be lymph node positive at breast cancer diagnosis (P = 0.044) relative to major allele homozygote carriers. Heterozygote carriers and minor allele homozygote carriers for SNP rs3803662 near the TNCR9 gene were more likely to be diagnosed before the age of 60 years (P = 0.025) relative to major allele homozygote carriers. We also noted a correlation between the number of minor alleles of rs2981582 in FGFR2 and the average number of first-degree and second-degree relatives with breast cancer and/or ovarian cancer (P = 0.05). All other disease characteristics, including tumour size and grade, and oestrogen or progesterone receptor status, were not significantly associated with any of these variants. CONCLUSION: Some recently discovered genomic variants associated with a mildly increased risk of breast cancer are also associated with breast cancer characteristics or family history of breast cancer and ovarian cancer. These findings provide interesting new clues for further research on these low-risk susceptibility alleles.