Translocated wild birds are predisposed to learn songs of their ancestral population.

Population differences in socially learned mating signals like oscine birdsong are particularly vulnerable to breakdown through dispersal.1 Despite this challenge, geographic variation in learned signals is ubiquitous.2 A proposed explanation for this pattern is that birds express predispositions to selectively learn and produce population-typical songs.3,4,5 While experimental studies on lab-reared birds have shown the existence of within-species learning predispositions,6,7,8,9,10 it remains unclear whether and how learning predispositions influence song acquisition in the wild. Here, we investigated innate song learning predispositions in wild pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) by measuring the songs of individuals translocated as eggs from a Dutch population to a breeding population in Sweden. We compared the songs of the adult males hatched from these translocated eggs with those from the ancestral and receiving populations. Songs of translocated males closely resemble the local Swedish songs to which they were exposed during development, supporting the importance of social learning. However, translocated males selectively learned those local Swedish song elements that sound the most "Dutch-like." As a result, their songs are significantly shifted toward those of the ancestral Dutch population. This suggests that innate learning predispositions track ongoing song evolution in wild populations of pied flycatchers. We propose that as songs continue to diverge over time, this coevolutionary relationship between song and learning predispositions may contribute to the emergence of incipient pre-mating barriers.

Individuals departing non-breeding areas early achieve earlier breeding and higher breeding success.

Conditions experienced by an individual during migration have the potential to shape migratory tactic and in turn fitness. For large birds, environmental conditions encountered during migration have been linked with survival and subsequent reproductive output, but this is less known for smaller birds, hindering our understanding of mechanisms driving population change. By combining breeding and tracking data from 62 pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) representing two breeding populations collected over 2016-2020, we determine how variation in migration phenology and tactic among individuals affects subsequent breeding. Departure date from West African non-breeding areas to European breeding grounds was highly variable among individuals and had a strong influence on migration tactic. Early departing individuals had longer spring migrations which included longer staging duration yet arrived at breeding sites and initiated breeding earlier than later departing individuals. Individuals with longer duration spring migrations and early arrival at breeding sites had larger clutches, and for males higher fledging success. We suggest that for pied flycatchers, individual carry-over effects may act through departure phenology from West Africa, and the associated spring migration duration, to influence reproduction. While our results confirm that departure date from non-breeding areas can be associated with breeding success in migratory passerines, we identify spring staging duration as a key component of this process.

Adaptation to climate change through dispersal and inherited timing in an avian migrant.

Many organisms fail to adjust their phenology sufficiently to climate change. Studies have concentrated on adaptive responses within localities, but little is known about how latitudinal dispersal enhances evolutionary potential. Rapid adaptation is expected if dispersers from lower latitudes have improved synchrony to northern conditions, thereby gain fitness and introduce genotypes on which selection acts. Here we provide experimental evidence that dispersal in an avian migrant enables rapid evolutionary adaptation. We translocated Dutch female pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) and eggs to Sweden, where breeding phenology is ~15 days later. Translocated females bred earlier, and their fitness was 2.5 times higher than local Swedish flycatchers. We show that between-population variation in timing traits is highly heritable, and hence immigration of southern genotypes promotes the necessary evolutionary response. We conclude that studies on adaptation to large-scale environmental change should not just focus on plasticity and evolution based on standing genetic variation but should also include phenotype-habitat matching through dispersal as a viable route to adjust.

Translocation of shorebird siblings shows intraspecific variation in migration routines to arise after fledging.

Although many recent tracking studies have uncovered considerable variation in the migratory routines of birds,1,2 the source of this variation is surprisingly poorly discussed.3 We hypothesize that a wealth of possible factors, including factors other than genetics, translate into these variable outcomes. To demonstrate how factors that are not inherited can shape migratory routine during development, we performed a translocation and delayed-release experiment with juvenile, hand-raised black-tailed godwits Limosa limosa limosa that were carefully matched for ancestral background, releasing siblings 1,000 km apart. Translocated juveniles adopted the spatiotemporal pattern of migration that is habitual for the population at the release location rather than the origin. This leads to the rejection of the hypothesis that the migration of inexperienced birds is only shaped by pre-release factors, including genes, maternal material in the eggs, and a common environment from hatching to fledging. Instead, these findings are consistent with inexperienced migrants also developing their knowledge and capacities through contextual individual learning,4 the precise nature of which now warrants study. The fact that hand-raised godwits, depending on the context in which they are released, can be induced to show different migratory routines, wintering sites, and breeding locations from their siblings indicates that processes during development offer the substrate for rapid adaptation of long-distance migration.

Eco-Evolutionary Consequences of Dispersal Syndromes during Colonization in a Passerine Bird.

AbstractIn most animal species, dispersing individuals possess phenotypic attributes that mitigate the costs of colonization and/or increase settlement success in new areas (dispersal syndromes). This phenotypic integration likely affects population dynamics and the direction of selection, but data are lacking for natural populations. Using an approach that combines population dynamics, quantitative genetics, and phenotypic selection analyses, we reveal the existence of dispersal syndromes in a pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population in the Netherlands: immigrants were larger, tended to have darker plumage, bred earlier, and produced larger clutches than local recruits, and some of these traits were genetically correlated. Over time, the phenotypic profile of the population gradually changed: each generation advanced arrival and breeding and exhibited longer wings as a result of direct and indirect selection on these correlated traits. Although phenotypic attributes of immigrants were favored by selection during the early phase of colonization, observed phenotypic changes were similar for immigrants and local recruits. We propose that immigrants facilitated initial population establishment but that temporal changes likely resulted from climate change-induced large-scale selection. This study highlights that newly established populations are of nonrandom composition and that phenotypic architecture affects evolutionary population trajectories.

DNA metabarcoding quantifies the relative biomass of arthropod taxa in songbird diets: Validation with camera-recorded diets.

Ecological research is often hampered by the inability to quantify animal diets. Diet composition can be tracked through DNA metabarcoding of fecal samples, but whether (complex) diets can be quantitatively determined with metabarcoding is still debated and needs validation using free-living animals. This study validates that DNA metabarcoding of feces can retrieve actual ingested taxa, and most importantly, that read numbers retrieved from sequencing can also be used to quantify the relative biomass of dietary taxa. Validation was done with the hole-nesting insectivorous Pied Flycatcher whose diet was quantified using camera footage. Size-adjusted counts of food items delivered to nestlings were used as a proxy for provided biomass of prey orders and families, and subsequently, nestling feces were assessed through DNA metabarcoding. To explore potential effects of digestion, gizzard and lower intestine samples of freshly collected birds were subjected to DNA metabarcoding. For metabarcoding with Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I (COI), we modified published invertebrate COI primers LCO1490 and HCO1777, which reduced host reads to 0.03%, and amplified Arachnida DNA without significant changing the recovery of other arthropod taxa. DNA metabarcoding retrieved all commonly camera-recorded taxa. Overall, and in each replicate year (N = 3), the relative scaled biomass of prey taxa and COI read numbers correlated at R = .85 (95CI:0.68-0.94) at order level and at R = .75 (CI:0.67-0.82) at family level. Similarity in arthropod community composition between gizzard and intestines suggested limited digestive bias. This DNA metabarcoding validation demonstrates that quantitative analyses of arthropod diet is possible. We discuss the ecological applications for insectivorous birds.

Unravelling the causes and consequences of dispersal syndromes in a wild passerine.

Evidence accumulates that dispersal is correlated with individual behavioural phenotype (dispersal syndrome). The evolutionary causes and consequences of such covariation depend on the degree of plasticity versus inheritance of the traits, which requires challenging experiments to implement in mobile organisms. Here, we combine a forced dispersal experiment, natural colonization and longitudinal data to establish if dispersal and aggression levels are integrated and to test their adaptive nature in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). We found that (forced) dispersers behaved more aggressively in their first breeding year after dispersal and decreased their aggression in following years. Strength of dispersal syndrome and direction of fecundity selection on aggression in newly colonized areas varied between years. We propose that the net benefits of aggression for dispersers increase under harsh conditions (e.g. low food abundance). This hypothesis now warrants further testing. Overall, this study provides unprecedented experimental evidence that dispersal syndromes can be remodelled via adaptive plasticity depending on the individuals' local breeding experience and/or year-specific ecological conditions. It highlights the importance of individual behavioural variation in population dynamics.

Age-dependent timing and routes demonstrate developmental plasticity in a long-distance migratory bird.

Longitudinal tracking studies have revealed consistent differences in the migration patterns of individuals from the same populations. The sources or processes causing this individual variation are largely unresolved. As a result, it is mostly unknown how much, how fast and when animals can adjust their migrations to changing environments. We studied the ontogeny of migration in a long-distance migratory shorebird, the black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa limosa, a species known to exhibit marked individuality in the migratory routines of adults. By observing how and when these individual differences arise, we aimed to elucidate whether individual differences in migratory behaviour are inherited or emerge as a result of developmental plasticity. We simultaneously tracked juvenile and adult godwits from the same breeding area on their south- and northward migrations. To determine how and when individual differences begin to arise, we related juvenile migration routes, timing and mortality rates to hatch date and hatch year. Then, we compared adult and juvenile migration patterns to identify potential age-dependent differences. In juveniles, the timing of their first southward departure was related to hatch date. However, their subsequent migration routes, orientation, destination, migratory duration and likelihood of mortality were unrelated to the year or timing of migration, or their sex. Juveniles left the Netherlands after all tracked adults. They then flew non-stop to West Africa more often and incurred higher mortality rates than adults. Some juveniles also took routes and visited stopover sites far outside the well-documented adult migratory corridor. Such juveniles, however, were not more likely to die. We found that juveniles exhibited different migratory patterns than adults, but no evidence that these behaviours are under natural selection. We thus eliminate the possibility that the individual differences observed among adult godwits are present at hatch or during their first migration. This adds to the mounting evidence that animals possess the developmental plasticity to change their migration later in life in response to environmental conditions as those conditions are experienced.

Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long-term avian studies.

Many organisms reproduce in seasonal environments, where selection on timing of reproduction is particularly strong as consumers need to synchronize reproduction with the peaked occurrence of their food. When a consumer species changes its phenology at a slower rate than its resources, this may induce a trophic mismatch, that is, offspring growing up after the peak in food availability, potentially leading to reductions in growth and survival. However, there is large variation in the degree of trophic mismatches as well as in its effects on reproductive output.Here, we explore the potential causes for variation in the strength of trophic mismatches in published studies of birds. Specifically, we ask whether the changes in the degree of mismatch that have occurred over time can be explained by a bird's (a) breeding latitude, (b) migration distance, and/or (c) life-history traits.We found that none of these three factors explain changes in the degree of mismatch over time. Nevertheless, food phenology did advance faster at more northerly latitudes, while shifts in bird phenology did not show a trend with latitude.We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability. We propose a pathway to improve the quantification of trophic mismatches, guided by a more rigorous understanding of links between consumers and their resources.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub.

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

Morph-dependent fitness and directional change of morph frequencies over time in a Dutch population of Common buzzards Buteo buteo.

How genetic polymorphisms are maintained in a population is a key question in evolutionary ecology. Previous work on a plumage colour polymorphism in the common buzzard Buteo buteo suggested heterozygote advantage as the mechanism maintaining the co-existence of three morphs (light, intermediate and dark). We took advantage of 20 years of life-history data collected in a Dutch population to replicate earlier studies on the relationship between colour morph and fitness in this species. We examined differences between morphs in adult apparent survival, breeding success, annual number of fledglings produced and cumulative reproductive success. We found that cumulative reproductive success differed among morphs, with the intermediate morph having highest fitness. We also found assortative mating for colour morph, whereby assortative pairs were more likely to produce offspring and had longer-lasting pair bonds than disassortative pairs. Over the 20-year study period, the proportion of individuals with an intermediate morph increased. This apparent evolutionary change did not just arise from selection on individual phenotypes, but also from fitness benefits of assortative mating. The increased frequency of intermediates might also be due to immigration or drift. We hypothesize that genetic variation is maintained through spatial variation in selection pressures. Further studies should investigate morph-dependent dispersal behaviour and habitat choice.

Weak effects of geolocators on small birds: A meta-analysis controlled for phylogeny and publication bias.

Currently, the deployment of tracking devices is one of the most frequently used approaches to study movement ecology of birds. Recent miniaturization of light-level geolocators enabled studying small bird species whose migratory patterns were widely unknown. However, geolocators may reduce vital rates in tagged birds and may bias obtained movement data. There is a need for a thorough assessment of the potential tag effects on small birds, as previous meta-analyses did not evaluate unpublished data and impact of multiple life-history traits, focused mainly on large species and the number of published studies tagging small birds has increased substantially. We quantitatively reviewed 549 records extracted from 74 published and 48 unpublished studies on over 7,800 tagged and 17,800 control individuals to examine the effects of geolocator tagging on small bird species (body mass <100 g). We calculated the effect of tagging on apparent survival, condition, phenology and breeding performance and identified the most important predictors of the magnitude of effect sizes. Even though the effects were not statistically significant in phylogenetically controlled models, we found a weak negative impact of geolocators on apparent survival. The negative effect on apparent survival was stronger with increasing relative load of the device and with geolocators attached using elastic harnesses. Moreover, tagging effects were stronger in smaller species. In conclusion, we found a weak effect on apparent survival of tagged birds and managed to pinpoint key aspects and drivers of tagging effects. We provide recommendations for establishing matched control group for proper effect size assessment in future studies and outline various aspects of tagging that need further investigation. Finally, our results encourage further use of geolocators on small bird species but the ethical aspects and scientific benefits should always be considered.

Adverse wind conditions during northward Sahara crossings increase the in-flight mortality of Black-tailed Godwits.

Long-distance migratory flights are predicted to be associated with higher mortality rates when individuals encounter adverse weather conditions. However, directly connecting environmental conditions experienced in-flight with the survival of migrants has proven difficult. We studied how the in-flight mortality of 53 satellite-tagged Black-tailed Godwits (Limosa limosa limosa) during 132 crossings of the Sahara Desert, a major geographical barrier along their migration route between The Netherlands and sub-Saharan Africa, is correlated with the experienced wind conditions and departure date during both southward and northward migration. We show that godwits experienced higher wind assistance during southward crossings, which seems to reflect local prevailing trade winds. Critically, we found that fatal northward crossings (15 deaths during 61 crossings) were associated with adverse wind conditions. Wind conditions during migration can thus directly influence vital rates. Changing wind conditions associated with global change may thus profoundly influence the costs of long-distance migration in the future.

Timing manipulations reveal the lack of a causal link across timing of annual-cycle stages in a long-distance migrant.

Organisms need to time their annual-cycle stages, like breeding and migration, to occur at the right time of the year. Climate change has shifted the timing of annual-cycle stages at different rates, thereby tightening or lifting time constraints of these annual-cycle stages, a rarely studied consequence of climate change. The degree to which these constraints are affected by climate change depends on whether consecutive stages are causally linked (scenario I) or whether the timing of each stage is independent of other stages (scenario II). Under scenario I, a change in timing in one stage has knock-on timing effects on subsequent stages, whereas under scenario II, a shift in the timing of one stage affects the degree of overlap with previous and subsequent stages. To test this, we combined field manipulations, captivity measurements and geolocation data. We advanced and delayed hatching dates in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) and measured how the timing of subsequent stages (male moult and migration) were affected. There was no causal effect of manipulated hatching dates on the onset of moult and departure to Africa. Thus, advancing hatching dates reduced the male moult-breeding overlap with no effect on the moult-migration interval. Interestingly, the wintering location of delayed males was more westwards, suggesting that delaying the termination of breeding carries over to winter location. Because we found no causal linkage of the timing of annual-cycle stages, climate change could shift these stages at different rates, with the risk that the time available for some becomes so short that this will have major fitness consequences.

Habitat selection can reduce effects of extreme climatic events in a long-lived shorebird.

Changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events (ECEs) can have profound impacts on individual fitness by degrading habitat quality. Organisms may respond to such changes through habitat selection, favouring those areas less affected by ECEs; however, documenting habitat selection in response to ECEs is difficult in the wild due to the rarity of such events and the long-term biological data required. Sea level rise and changing weather patterns over the past decades have led to an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding events, with serious consequences for ground nesting shorebirds. Shorebirds therefore present a useful natural study system to understand habitat selection as a response to ECEs. We used a 32-year study of the Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) to investigate whether habitat selection can lead to an increase in nest elevation and minimize the impacts of coastal flooding. The mean nest elevation of H. ostralegus has increased during the last three decades. We hypothesized that this change has been driven by changes in H. ostralegus territory settlement patterns over time. We compared various possible habitat selection cues to understand what information H. ostralegus might use to inform territory settlement. There was a clear relationship between elevation and territory settlement in H. ostralegus. In early years, settlements were more likely at low elevations but in more recent years the likelihood of settlement was similar between high and low elevation areas. Territory settlement was associated with conspecific fledgling output and conspecific density. Settlement was more likely in areas of high density and areas with high fledgling output. This study shows that habitat selection can minimize the effects of increasingly frequent ECEs. However, it seems unlikely that the changes we observe will fully alleviate the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Rates of nest elevation increase were insufficient to track current increases in maximum high tide (0.5 vs. 0.8 cm/year). Furthermore, habitat selection cues that rely on information from previous breeding seasons (e.g. conspecific fledgling output) may become ineffective as ECEs become more frequent and environmental predictability is diminished.

Scrutinizing assortative mating in birds.

It is often claimed that pair bonds preferentially form between individuals that resemble one another. Such assortative mating appears to be widespread throughout the animal kingdom. Yet it is unclear whether the apparent ubiquity of assortative mating arises primarily from mate choice ("like attracts like"), which can be constrained by same-sex competition for mates; from spatial or temporal separation; or from observer, reporting, publication, or search bias. Here, based on a conventional literature search, we find compelling meta-analytical evidence for size-assortative mating in birds (r = 0.178, 95% CI 0.142-0.215, 83 species, 35,591 pairs). However, our analyses reveal that this effect vanishes gradually with increased control of confounding factors. Specifically, the effect size decreased by 42% when we used previously unpublished data from nine long-term field studies, i.e., data free of reporting and publication bias (r = 0.103, 95% CI 0.074-0.132, eight species, 16,611 pairs). Moreover, in those data, assortative mating effectively disappeared when both partners were measured by independent observers or separately in space and time (mean r = 0.018, 95% CI -0.016-0.057). Likewise, we also found no evidence for assortative mating in a direct experimental test for mutual mate choice in captive populations of Zebra finches (r = -0.020, 95% CI -0.148-0.107, 1,414 pairs). These results highlight the importance of unpublished data in generating unbiased meta-analytical conclusions and suggest that the apparent ubiquity of assortative mating reported in the literature is overestimated and may not be driven by mate choice or mating competition for preferred mates.

Climate Change May Affect Fatal Competition between Two Bird Species.

Climate warming has altered phenologies of many taxa [1, 2], but the extent differs vastly between [3, 4] and within trophic levels [5-7]. Differential adjustment to climate warming within trophic levels may affect coexistence of competing species, because relative phenologies alter facilitative and competitive outcomes [8, 9], but evidence for this is scant [10, 11]. Here, we report on two mechanisms through which climate change may affect fatal interactions between two sympatric passerines, the resident great tit Parus major and the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, competing for nest sites. Spring temperature more strongly affected breeding phenology of tits than flycatchers, and tits killed more flycatchers when flycatcher arrival coincided with peak laying in the tits. Ongoing climate change may diminish this fatal competition if great tit and flycatcher phenologies diverge. However, great tit density increased after warm winters, and flycatcher mortality was elevated when tit densities were higher. Consequently, flycatcher males in synchronous and high-tit-density years suffered mortality by great tits of up to 8.9%. Interestingly, we found no population consequences of fatal competition, suggesting that mortality predominantly happened among surplus males. Indeed, late-arriving males are less likely to find a partner [12], and here we show that such late arrivers are more likely to die from competition with great tits. We conclude that our breeding population is buffered against detrimental effects of competition. Nevertheless, we expect that if buffers are diminished, population consequences of interspecific competition may become apparent, especially after warm winters that are benign to resident species. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Hatching failure and accumulation of organic pollutants through the terrestrial food web of a declining songbird in Western Europe.

Population growth in passerine birds is largely driven by fecundity. If fecundity is affected, for instance by hatching failure, populations may decline. We noted high hatching failure of up to 27% per year in relict populations of the Northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) in The Netherlands, a strongly declining, migratory passerine in Europe. This hatching failure itself can cause population decline, irrespective of other adverse factors. Additionally, we investigated the cause of hatching failure. Unhatched eggs showed egg yolk infections or embryonic malformations, part of which is associated with the actions of dioxin-like compounds (DLCs). Indeed, DLCs appear to bioaccumulate in the local foodweb, where the soil contained only background concentrations, similar to those found at many other locations. DLC concentrations in Dutch eggs were six-fold higher than those in a reference population in Sweden, where egg failure was only 6%. However, Northern wheatears appear to be only moderately sensitive to the actions of DLCs, because of their specific Ah-receptor type which may moderate the receptor mediated effects of DLCs. This indicates that the concentrations of DLCs, although elevated, may not have caused the embryo malformations or the low hatching rates. We discuss whether other toxins may be important or imbalances in the nutrition and if inbreeding may play a larger role than expected.

Reproductive effort and future parental competitive ability: A nest box removal experiment.

The life history trade-off between current and future reproduction is a theoretically well-established concept. However, empirical evidence for the occurrence of a fitness cost of reproduction is mixed. Evidence indicates that parents only pay a cost of reproduction when local competition is high. In line with this, recent experimental work on a small passerine bird, the Great tit (Parus major) showed that reproductive effort negatively affected the competitive ability of parents, estimated through competition for high quality breeding sites in spring. In the current study, we further investigate the negative causal relationship between reproductive effort and future parental competitive ability, with the aim to quantify the consequences for parental fitness, when breeding sites are scarce. To this end, we (a) manipulated the family size of Great tit parents and (b) induced severe competition for nest boxes among the parents just before the following breeding season by means of a large-scale nest box removal experiment. Parents increased their feeding effort in response to our family size manipulation and we successfully induced competition among the parents the following spring. Against our expectation, we found no effect of last season's family size on the ability of parents to secure a scarce nest box for breeding. In previous years, if detected, the survival cost of reproduction was always paid after midwinter. In this year, parents did pay a survival cost of reproduction before midwinter and thus before the onset of the experiment in early spring. Winter food availability during our study year was exceptionally low, and thus, competition in early winter may have been extraordinarily high. We hypothesize that differences in parental competitive ability due to their previous reproductive effort might have played a role, but before the onset of our experiment and resulted in the payment of the survival cost of reproduction.

Warming springs and habitat alteration interact to impact timing of breeding and population dynamics in a migratory bird.

In seasonal environments, increasing spring temperatures lead many taxa to advance the timing of reproduction. Species that do not may suffer lower fitness. We investigated why black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa limosa), a ground-breeding agricultural grassland shorebird, have not advanced timing of reproduction during the last three decades in the face of climate change and human-induced habitat degradation. We used data from an 11-year field study to parameterize an Integral Projection Model to predict how spring temperature and habitat quality simultaneously influence the timing of reproduction and population dynamics. We found apparent selection for earlier laying, but not a correlation between the laying dates of parents and their offspring. Nevertheless, in warmer springs, laying dates of adults show a stronger positive correlation with laying date in previous springs than in cooler ones, and this leads us to predict a slight advance in the timing of reproduction if spring temperatures continue to increase. We also show that only in landscapes with low agricultural activity, the population can continue to act as a source. This study shows how climate change and declining habitat quality may enhance extinction risk.