Antibody Duration After Infection From SARS-CoV-2 in the Texas Coronavirus Antibody Response Survey.

Understanding the duration of antibodies to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus that causes COVID-19 is important to controlling the current pandemic. Participants from the Texas Coronavirus Antibody Response Survey (Texas CARES) with at least 1 nucleocapsid protein antibody test were selected for a longitudinal analysis of antibody duration. A linear mixed model was fit to data from participants (n = 4553) with 1 to 3 antibody tests over 11 months (1 October 2020 to 16 September 2021), and models fit showed that expected antibody response after COVID-19 infection robustly increases for 100 days postinfection, and predicts individuals may remain antibody positive from natural infection beyond 500 days depending on age, body mass index, smoking or vaping use, and disease severity (hospitalized or not; symptomatic or not).

Case growth analysis to inform local response to COVID-19 epidemic in a diverse U.S community.

Early detection of new outbreak waves is critical for effective and sustained response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a growth rate analysis using local community and inpatient records from seven hospital systems to characterize distinct phases in SARS-CoV-2 outbreak waves in the Greater Houston area. We determined the transition times from rapid spread of infection in the community to surge in the number of inpatients in local hospitals. We identified 193,237 residents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 via molecular testing from April 8, 2020 to June 30, 2021, and 30,031 residents admitted within local healthcare institutions with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, including emergency cases. We detected two distinct COVID-19 waves: May 12, 2020-September 6, 2020 and September 27, 2020-May 15, 2021; each encompassed four growth phases: lagging, exponential/rapid growth, deceleration, and stationary/linear. Our findings showed that, during early stages of the pandemic, the surge in the number of daily cases in the community preceded that of inpatients admitted to local hospitals by 12-36 days. Rapid decline in hospitalized cases was an early indicator of transition to deceleration in the community. Our real-time analysis informed local pandemic response in one of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas, providing an operationalized framework to support robust real-world surveillance for outbreak preparedness.

Methodology to estimate natural- and vaccine-induced antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a large geographic region.

Accurate estimates of natural and/or vaccine-induced antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are difficult to obtain. Although model-based estimates of seroprevalence have been proposed, they require inputting unknown parameters including viral reproduction number, longevity of immune response, and other dynamic factors. In contrast to a model-based approach, the current study presents a data-driven detailed statistical procedure for estimating total seroprevalence (defined as antibodies from natural infection or from full vaccination) in a region using prospectively collected serological data and state-level vaccination data. Specifically, we conducted a longitudinal statewide serological survey with 88,605 participants 5 years or older with 3 prospective blood draws beginning September 30, 2020. Along with state vaccination data, as of October 31, 2021, the estimated percentage of those 5 years or older with naturally occurring antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas is 35.0% (95% CI = (33.1%, 36.9%)). This is 3× higher than, state-confirmed COVID-19 cases (11.83%) for all ages. The percentage with naturally occurring or vaccine-induced antibodies (total seroprevalence) is 77.42%. This methodology is integral to pandemic preparedness as accurate estimates of seroprevalence can inform policy-making decisions relevant to SARS-CoV-2.

Prevalence and Financial Burden of Digestive Diseases in a Commercially Insured Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Digestive diseases represent a diverse group of clinical conditions that impact the population. Their heterogeneity in classification, presentation, acuity, chronicity, and need for drug therapy presents a challenge when comparing and contrasting the burden associated with these conditions. Prior studies use an outdated classification system and aggregate costs at the population level or focus on specific diseases, limiting the ability to characterize the overall landscape. Our aim was to provide the most up-to-date assessment of cost, utilization, and prevalence associated with digestive diseases. METHODS: We examined digestive disease claims and payment data for a commercially insured adult population between 2016 and 2018 to provide a comprehensive summary of costs, utilization, and prevalence across 38 conditions. Outcome variables included point prevalence and relative prevalence, annualized all-cause medical and drug costs, digestive disease-specific average medical cost, digestive disease-specific cost per fill, and utilization by clinical setting and by clinical condition. RESULTS: A total of 7,297,435 individuals with a digestive disease diagnosis were included in the study. The point prevalence of having a digestive disease in the total population was 24%. Annualized total costs by clinical category ranged from $10,038 (eosinophilic esophagitis) to $107,007 (hepatitis C), with medical costs accounting for most of the expenditures in a majority of conditions. Annualized total costs for common conditions included $39,653 for alcoholic liver disease, $42,554 for acute pancreatitis, $62,735 for Crohn's disease, $13,948 for functional gastrointestinal disorders, $53,214 for nonalcoholic cirrhosis, and $36,441 for ulcerative colitis. Average cost of inpatient stays ranged from $12,218 (noninfectious gastroenteritis/colitis) to $78,259 (nonalcoholic steatohepatitis). Outpatient visits ranged from $784 (gastrointestinal infection) to $4629 (gallbladder and biliary tract disease). Average drug cost per fill ranged from $83 (gastroesophageal reflux disease) to $1458 (hepatitis C). A total of 27,429,046 clinical encounters occurred across all conditions during the study period, with 90% taking place as outpatient visits. Abdominal pain was the single largest contributor to outpatient visits and emergency department to home encounters. Inpatient stays were considerably more heterogeneous, with no condition accounting for more than 12% (gallbladder and biliary tract disease) of the total. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate digestive diseases are common, heterogeneous in cost and utilization, and collectively exact a significant financial burden on the U.S. adult population.

Disability Rating Scale in the First Few Weeks After a Severe Traumatic Brain Injury as a Predictor of 6-Month Functional Outcome.

BACKGROUND: An early acute marker of long-term neurological outcome would be useful to help guide clinical decision making and therapeutic effectiveness after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). We investigated the utility of the Disability Rating Scale (DRS) as early as 1 wk after TBI as a predictor of favorable 6-mo Glasgow Outcome Scale extended (GOS-E). OBJECTIVE: To determine the predictability of a favorable 6-mo GOS-E using the DRS measured during weeks 1 to 4 of injury. METHODS: The study is a sub analysis of patients enrolled in the Epo Severe TBI Trial (n = 200) to train and validate L1-regularized logistic regression models. DRS was collected at weeks 1 to 4 and GOS-E at 6 mo. RESULTS: The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.82 for the model with baseline demographic and injury severity variables and week 1 DRS and increased to 0.88 when including weekly DRS until week 4. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that week 1 to 4 DRS may be predictors of favorable 6-mo outcome in severe TBI patients and thus useful both for clinical prognostication as well as surrogate endpoints for adaptive clinical trials.