Safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of Ad26.COV2.S as homologous or heterologous COVID-19 booster vaccination: Results of a randomized, double-blind, phase 2 trial.

COVID-19 vaccine boosters may optimize durability of protection against variants of concern (VOCs). In this randomized, double-blind, phase 2 trial, participants received 3 different dose levels of an Ad26.COV2.S booster (5 × 1010 vp [viral particles], 2.5 × 1010 vp, or 1 × 1010 vp) ≥6 months post-primary vaccination with either single-dose Ad26.COV2.S (homologous boost; n = 774) or 2-dose BNT162b2 (heterologous boost; n = 758). Primary endpoints were noninferiority of neutralizing antibody responses at Day 15 post-boost versus Day 29 post-primary vaccination. Secondary endpoints included reactogenicity/safety and neutralizing antibody responses to VOCs. All primary endpoints passed prespecified hierarchical noninferiority criteria by Day 15 post-boost. Geometric mean increases in neutralizing antibody titers against the D614G reference strain ranged from 5.5 to 6.8 at Day 15 for homologous boosting and 12.6 to 22.0 for heterologous boosting. For VOCs, heterologous boosting elicited higher neutralizing antibody responses than homologous boosting. Neutralizing antibody responses were dose-dependent and durable for ≥6 months post-boost. More solicited systemic adverse events occurred following heterologous versus homologous boosting. Trial Registration:ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04999111.

Safety and immunogenicity of Ad26.COV2.S in adults: A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 2a dose-finding study.

BACKGROUND: A single dose of Ad26.COV2.S is well-tolerated and effective in preventing moderate-to-severe disease outcomes due to COVID-19. We evaluated the impact of dose level, number of doses, and dose interval on immunogenicity, reactogenicity, and safety of Ad26.COV2.S in adults. Anamnestic responses were also explored. METHODS: This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, Phase 2a study was conducted in adults aged 18-55 years and ≥ 65 years (NCT04535453). Four dose levels (1.25 × 1010, 2.5 × 1010, 5 × 1010, and 1 × 1011 viral particles [vp], single and 2-dose schedules, and dose intervals of 56 and 84 days, were assessed. Four or 6 months post-primary vaccination, Ad26.COV2.S 1.25 × 1010 vp was given to evaluate anamnestic responses. Humoral and cell-mediated immune responses were measured. Reactogenicity and safety were assessed in all participants. RESULTS: All Ad26.COV2.S schedules induced humoral responses with evidence of a dose response relationship. A single dose of Ad26.COV2.S (5 × 1010 vp) induced antibody and cellular immune responses that persisted for up to at least 6 months. In the 2-dose regimens, antibody responses were higher than 1-dose regimens at comparable dose levels, and the magnitude of the immune response increased when the interval between doses was increased (84 days vs 56 days). Rapid, marked immune responses were observed in all groups after vaccine antigen exposure indicating immune memory. Durable immune responses were observed in all groups for up to at least 6 months post-antigen exposure. Strong and consistent correlations between neutralising and binding antibodies were observed CD4 + and CD8 + T cell responses were similar after all regimens. Reactogenicity within 7 days post-vaccination tended to be dose-related. CONCLUSION: The study supports the primary, single dose schedule with Ad26.COV2.S at 5 × 1010 vp and homologous booster vaccination after a 6 month interval. Rapid and marked responses to vaccine antigen exposure indicate induction of immune memory by 1- and 2-dose primary vaccination.

Carbapenem resistance in Enterobacterales bloodstream infections among children with cancer or post-haematopoietic stem cell transplant: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for carbapenem resistance in Enterobacterales bloodstream infections among children with cancer or post-HSCT have not been thoroughly explored. METHODS: All children with cancer or post-HSCT who developed Enterobacterales bloodstream infections in two cancer referral centres in major Colombian cities between 2012 and 2021 were retrospectively examined. When the infection episode occurred, carbapenem resistance mechanisms were evaluated according to the available methods. Data were divided in a training set (80%) and a test set (20%). Three internally validated carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) prediction models were created: a multivariate logistic regression model, and two data mining techniques. Model performances were evaluated by calculating the average of the AUC, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values. RESULTS: A total of 285 Enterobacterales bloodstream infection episodes (229 carbapenem susceptible and 56 carbapenem resistant) occurred [median (IQR) age, 9 (3.5-14) years; 57% male]. The risk of CRE was 2.1 times higher when the infection was caused by Klebsiella spp. and 5.8 times higher when a carbapenem had been used for ≥3 days in the previous month. A model including these two predictive variables had a discriminatory performance of 77% in predicting carbapenem resistance. The model had a specificity of 97% and a negative predictive value of 81%, with low sensitivity and positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: Even in settings with high CRE prevalence, these two variables can help early identification of patients in whom CRE-active agents are unnecessary and highlight the importance of strengthening antibiotic stewardship strategies directed at preventing carbapenem overuse.

Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome: A database review of clinical trial and post-marketing experience with Ad26.COV2.S.

BACKGROUND: Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) is a very rare disorder described after vaccination with adenoviral vector-based COVID-19 vaccines. Co-occurring thrombosis with thrombocytopenia reported after vaccination can be a proxy for identification of TTS. METHODS: Descriptive database review of all cases of co-occurring (within 42 days) thrombosis with thrombocytopenia in participants in Ad26.COV2.S clinical trials or recipients of Ad26.COV2.S in real-world clinical practice. Cases were retrieved from Janssens' clinical trial and Global Medical Safety databases. RESULTS: There were 34 cases of co-occurring thrombosis with thrombocytopenia in Ad26.COV2.S recipients (46 per 100,000 person-years) and 15 after placebo (75 per 100,000 person-years) in clinical trials. Among Ad26.COV2.S recipients, mean age at the time of the event was 63 years (range 25-85), 82 % were male, mean time-to-onset 112 days (range 8-339) post-last Ad26.COV2.S dose, 26 events occurred post-dose-1, and 7 within a 28-day risk window post-vaccination. Diagnostic certainty was evaluated using Brighton Collaboration, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and European Medicines Agency Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee case definitions. One case met the highest level of diagnostic certainty for all 3 definitions. There were 355 spontaneous reports of co-occurring thrombosis with thrombocytopenia in the Global Medical Safety database, 47 % males, 85 % within 28-days after vaccination. Twenty-seven cases met the highest level of diagnostic certainty for all definitions, 21 female, 19 with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, age-range 18-68 years. Time-to-onset was 7-14 days post-vaccination in 20 cases. There were 8 fatalities. CONCLUSION: TTS induced by Ad26.COV2.S is very rare. Most co-occurring thrombosis with thrombocytopenia does not constitute TTS.

Safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of Ad26.COV2.S: Results of a phase 1, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled COVID-19 vaccine trial in Japan.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of a 2-month homologous booster regimen of Ad26.COV2.S in Japanese adults. METHODS: In this multicenter, placebo-controlled, Phase 1 trial, adults (Cohort 1, aged 20-55 years, N = 125; Cohort 2, aged ≥ 65 years, N = 125) were randomized 2:2:1 to receive Ad26.COV2.S 5 × 1010 viral particles (vp), Ad26.COV2.S 1 × 1011 vp, or placebo, followed by a homologous booster 56 days later. Safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity were assessed. RESULTS: Two hundred participants received Ad26.COV2.S and 50 received placebo. The most frequent solicited local adverse event (AE) was vaccination-site pain, and the most frequent solicited systemic AEs were fatigue, myalgia, and headache. After primary vaccination, neutralizing and binding antibody levels increased through Day 57 (post-prime) in both cohorts. Fourteen days after boosting (Day 71), neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers (GMTs) had almost reached their peak value in Cohort 1 (5 × 1010 vp: GMT = 1049; 1 × 1011 vp: GMT = 1470) and peaked in Cohort 2 (504; 651); at Day 85, GMTs had declined minimally in Cohort 2. For both cohorts, binding antibody levels peaked at Day 71 with minimal decline at Day 85. CONCLUSION: A single dose and homologous Ad26.COV2.S booster increased antibody responses with an acceptable safety profile in Japanese adults (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04509947).

Quantifying Antibody Persistence After a Single Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine Ad26.COV2.S in Humans Using a Mechanistic Modeling and Simulation Approach.

Understanding persistence of humoral immune responses elicited by vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is critical for informing the duration of protection and appropriate booster timing. We developed a mechanistic model to characterize the time course of humoral immune responses in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)-seronegative adults after primary vaccination with the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine, Ad26.COV2.S. The persistence of antibody responses was quantified through mechanistic modeling-based simulations. Two biomarkers of humoral immune responses were examined: SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies determined by wild-type virus neutralization assay (wtVNA) and spike protein-binding antibodies determined by indirect spike protein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (S-ELISA). The persistence of antibody responses was defined as the period of time during which wtVNA and S-ELISA titers remained above the lower limit of quantification. A total of 442 wtVNA and 1,185 S-ELISA titers from 82 and 220 participants, respectively, were analyzed following administration of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S (5 × 1010 viral particles). The mechanistic model adequately described the time course of observed wtVNA and S-ELISA serum titers and its associated variability up to 8 months following vaccination. Mechanistic model-based simulations show that single-dose Ad26.COV2.S elicits durable but waning antibody responses up to 24 months following immunization. Of the estimated model parameters, the production rate of memory B cells was decreased in older adults relative to younger adults, and the antibody production rate mediated by long-lived plasma cells was increased in women relative to men. A steeper waning of antibody responses was predicted in men and in older adults.

Durable antibody responses elicited by 1 dose of Ad26.COV2.S and substantial increase after boosting: 2 randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Ad26.COV2.S is a well-tolerated and effective vaccine against COVID-19. We evaluated durability of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies elicited by single-dose Ad26.COV2.S and the impact of boosting. METHODS: In randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2a and phase 2 trials, participants received single-dose Ad26.COV2.S (5 × 1010 viral particles [vp]) followed by booster doses of 5 × 1010 vp or 1.25 × 1010 vp. Neutralizing antibody levels were determined by a virus neutralization assay (VNA) approximately 8-9 months after dose 1. Binding and neutralizing antibody levels were evaluated by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and pseudotyped VNA 6 months after dose 1 and 7 and 28 days after boosting. RESULTS: Data were analyzed from phase 1/2a participants enrolled from 22 July-18 December 2020 (Cohort 1a, 18-55 years [y], N = 25; Cohort 2a, 18-55y, N = 17; Cohort 3, ≥65y, N = 22), and phase 2 participants from 14 to 22 September 2020 (18-55y and ≥ 65y, N = 73). Single-dose Ad26.COV2.S elicited stable neutralizing antibodies for at least 8-9 months and stable binding antibodies for at least 6 months, irrespective of age. A 5 × 1010 vp 2-month booster dose increased binding antibodies by 4.9- to 6.2-fold 14 days post-boost versus 28 days after initial immunization. A 6-month booster elicited a steep and robust 9-fold increase in binding antibody levels 7 days post-boost. A 5.0-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies was observed by 28 days post-boost for the Beta variant. A 1.25 × 1010 vp 6-month booster elicited a 3.6-fold increase in binding antibody levels at 7 days post-boost versus pre-boost, with a similar magnitude of post-boost responses in both age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Single-dose Ad26.COV2.S elicited durable antibody responses for at least 8 months and elicited immune memory. Booster-elicited binding and neutralizing antibody responses were rapid and robust, even with a quarter vaccine dose, and stronger with a longer interval since primary vaccination. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04436276, NCT04535453.

Final Analysis of Efficacy and Safety of Single-Dose Ad26.COV2.S.

BACKGROUND: The Ad26.COV2.S vaccine was highly effective against severe-critical coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), hospitalization, and death in the primary phase 3 efficacy analysis. METHODS: We conducted the final analysis in the double-blind phase of our multinational, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, in which adults were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive single-dose Ad26.COV2.S (5×1010 viral particles) or placebo. The primary end points were vaccine efficacy against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 with onset at least 14 days after administration and at least 28 days after administration in the per-protocol population. Safety and key secondary and exploratory end points were also assessed. RESULTS: Median follow-up in this analysis was 4 months; 8940 participants had at least 6 months of follow-up. In the per-protocol population (39,185 participants), vaccine efficacy against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 at least 14 days after administration was 56.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 51.3 to 60.8; 484 cases in the vaccine group vs. 1067 in the placebo group); at least 28 days after administration, vaccine efficacy was 52.9% (95% CI, 47.1 to 58.1; 433 cases in the vaccine group vs. 883 in the placebo group). Efficacy in the United States, primarily against the reference strain (B.1.D614G) and the B.1.1.7 (alpha) variant, was 69.7% (95% CI, 60.7 to 76.9); efficacy was reduced elsewhere against the P.1 (gamma), C.37 (lambda), and B.1.621 (mu) variants. Efficacy was 74.6% (95% CI, 64.7 to 82.1) against severe-critical Covid-19 (with only 4 severe-critical cases caused by the B.1.617.2 [delta] variant), 75.6% (95% CI, 54.3 to 88.0) against Covid-19 leading to medical intervention (including hospitalization), and 82.8% (95% CI, 40.5 to 96.8) against Covid-19-related death, with protection lasting 6 months or longer. Efficacy against any severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was 41.7% (95% CI, 36.3 to 46.7). Ad26.COV2.S was associated with mainly mild-to-moderate adverse events, and no new safety concerns were identified. CONCLUSIONS: A single dose of Ad26.COV2.S provided 52.9% protection against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19. Protection varied according to variant; higher protection was observed against severe Covid-19, medical intervention, and death than against other end points and lasted for 6 months or longer. (Funded by Janssen Research and Development and others; ENSEMBLE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04505722.).

Annual Tuberculosis Preventive Therapy for Persons With HIV Infection : A Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis preventive therapy for persons with HIV infection is effective, but its durability is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To compare treatment completion rates of weekly isoniazid-rifapentine for 3 months versus daily isoniazid for 6 months as well as the effectiveness of the 3-month rifapentine-isoniazid regimen given annually for 2 years versus once. DESIGN: Randomized trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02980016). SETTING: South Africa, Ethiopia, and Mozambique. PARTICIPANTS: Persons with HIV infection who were receiving antiretroviral therapy, were aged 2 years or older, and did not have active tuberculosis. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomly assigned to receive weekly rifapentine-isoniazid for 3 months, given either annually for 2 years or once, or daily isoniazid for 6 months. Participants were screened for tuberculosis symptoms at months 0 to 3 and 12 of each study year and at months 12 and 24 using chest radiography and sputum culture. MEASUREMENTS: Treatment completion was assessed using pill counts. Tuberculosis incidence was measured over 24 months. RESULTS: Between November 2016 and November 2017, 4027 participants were enrolled; 4014 were included in the analyses (median age, 41 years; 69.5% women; all using antiretroviral therapy). Treatment completion in the first year for the combined rifapentine-isoniazid groups (n = 3610) was 90.4% versus 50.5% for the isoniazid group (n = 404) (risk ratio, 1.78 [95% CI, 1.61 to 1.95]). Tuberculosis incidence among participants receiving the rifapentine-isoniazid regimen twice (n = 1808) or once (n = 1802) was similar (hazard ratio, 0.96 [CI, 0.61 to 1.50]). LIMITATION: If rifapentine-isoniazid is effective in curing subclinical tuberculosis, then the intensive tuberculosis screening at month 12 may have reduced its effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Treatment completion was higher with rifapentine-isoniazid for 3 months compared with isoniazid for 6 months. In settings with high tuberculosis transmission, a second round of preventive therapy did not provide additional benefit to persons receiving antiretroviral therapy. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: The U.S. Agency for International Development through the CHALLENGE TB grant to the KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation.

Safety and Efficacy of Single-Dose Ad26.COV2.S Vaccine against Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: The Ad26.COV2.S vaccine is a recombinant, replication-incompetent human adenovirus type 26 vector encoding full-length severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein in a prefusion-stabilized conformation. METHODS: In an international, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned adult participants in a 1:1 ratio to receive a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S (5×1010 viral particles) or placebo. The primary end points were vaccine efficacy against moderate to severe-critical coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) with an onset at least 14 days and at least 28 days after administration among participants in the per-protocol population who had tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: The per-protocol population included 19,630 SARS-CoV-2-negative participants who received Ad26.COV2.S and 19,691 who received placebo. Ad26.COV2.S protected against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 with onset at least 14 days after administration (116 cases in the vaccine group vs. 348 in the placebo group; efficacy, 66.9%; adjusted 95% confidence interval [CI], 59.0 to 73.4) and at least 28 days after administration (66 vs. 193 cases; efficacy, 66.1%; adjusted 95% CI, 55.0 to 74.8). Vaccine efficacy was higher against severe-critical Covid-19 (76.7% [adjusted 95% CI, 54.6 to 89.1] for onset at ≥14 days and 85.4% [adjusted 95% CI, 54.2 to 96.9] for onset at ≥28 days). Despite 86 of 91 cases (94.5%) in South Africa with sequenced virus having the 20H/501Y.V2 variant, vaccine efficacy was 52.0% and 64.0% against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 with onset at least 14 days and at least 28 days after administration, respectively, and efficacy against severe-critical Covid-19 was 73.1% and 81.7%, respectively. Reactogenicity was higher with Ad26.COV2.S than with placebo but was generally mild to moderate and transient. The incidence of serious adverse events was balanced between the two groups. Three deaths occurred in the vaccine group (none were Covid-19-related), and 16 in the placebo group (5 were Covid-19-related). CONCLUSIONS: A single dose of Ad26.COV2.S protected against symptomatic Covid-19 and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and was effective against severe-critical disease, including hospitalization and death. Safety appeared to be similar to that in other phase 3 trials of Covid-19 vaccines. (Funded by Janssen Research and Development and others; ENSEMBLE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04505722.).

Estimating the Impact of Tuberculosis Case Detection in Constrained Health Systems: An Example of Case-Finding in South Africa.

Mathematical models are increasingly being used to compare strategies for tuberculosis (TB) control and inform policy decisions. Models often do not consider financial and other constraints on implementation and may overestimate the impact that can be achieved. We developed a pragmatic approach for incorporating resource constraints into mathematical models of TB. Using a TB transmission model calibrated for South Africa, we estimated the epidemiologic impact and resource requirements (financial, human resource (HR), and diagnostic) of 9 case-finding interventions. We compared the model-estimated resources with scenarios of future resource availability and estimated the impact of interventions under these constraints. Without constraints, symptom screening in public health clinics and among persons receiving care for human immunodeficiency virus infection was predicted to lead to larger reductions in TB incidence (9.5% (2.5th-97.5th percentile range (PR), 8.6-12.2) and 14.5% (2.5th-97.5th PR, 12.2-16.3), respectively) than improved adherence to diagnostic guidelines (2.7%; 2.5th-97.5th PR, 1.6-4.1). However, symptom screening required large increases in resources, exceeding future HR capacity. Even under our most optimistic HR scenario, the reduction in TB incidence from clinic symptom screening was 0.2%-0.9%-less than that of improved adherence to diagnostic guidelines. Ignoring resource constraints may result in incorrect conclusions about an intervention's impact and may lead to suboptimal policy decisions. Models used for decision-making should consider resource constraints.

Application of provincial data in mathematical modelling to inform sub-national tuberculosis program decision-making in South Africa.

South Africa has the highest tuberculosis (TB) disease incidence rate in the world, and TB is the leading infectious cause of death. Decisions on, and funding for, TB prevention and care policies are decentralised to the provincial governments and therefore, tools to inform policy need to operate at this level. We describe the use of a mathematical model planning tool at provincial level in a high HIV and TB burden country, to estimate the impact on TB burden of achieving the 90-(90)-90 targets of the Stop TB Partnership Global Plan to End TB. "TIME Impact" is a freely available, user-friendly TB modelling tool. In collaboration with provincial TB programme staff, and the South African National TB Programme, models for three (of nine) provinces were calibrated to TB notifications, incidence, and screening data. Reported levels of TB programme activities were used as baseline inputs into the models, which were used to estimate the impact of scale-up of interventions focusing on screening, linkage to care and treatment success. All baseline models predicted a trend of decreasing TB incidence and mortality, consistent with recent data from South Africa. The projected impacts of the interventions differed by province and were greatly influenced by assumed current coverage levels. The absence of provincial TB burden estimates and uncertainty in current activity coverage levels were key data gaps. A user-friendly modelling tool allows TB burden and intervention impact projection at the sub-national level. Key sub-national data gaps should be addressed to improve the quality of sub-national model predictions.

Age-targeted tuberculosis vaccination in China and implications for vaccine development: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is the leading single-pathogen cause of death worldwide, and China has the third largest number of cases worldwide. New tools, such as new vaccines, are needed to meet WHO tuberculosis goals. Tuberculosis vaccine development strategies mostly target infants or adolescents, but given China's ageing epidemic, vaccinating older people might be important. We modelled the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines in China targeting adolescents (15-19 years) or older adults (60-64 years) with varying vaccine characteristics to inform strategic vaccine development. METHODS: A Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission model was calibrated to age-stratified demographic and epidemiological data from China. Varying scenarios of vaccine implementation (age targeting [adolescents or older adults] and coverage [30% or 70%]) and characteristics (efficacy [40%, 60%, or 80%], duration of protection [10 years or 20 years], and host infection status required for efficacy [pre-infection, post-infection in latency, post-infection in latency or recovered, or pre-infection and post-infection]) were assessed. Primary outcomes were tuberculosis incidence and mortality rate reduction in 2050 in each vaccine scenario compared with the baseline (no new vaccine) scenario and cumulative number needed to vaccinate (NNV) per case or death averted, 2025-50. FINDINGS: By 2050, results suggest that 74·5% (uncertainty interval [UI] 70·2-78·6) of incident tuberculosis cases in China would occur in people aged 65 years or older, and 75·1% (66·8-80·7) of all cases would be due to reactivation, rather than new infection. All vaccine profiles delivered to older adults had higher population-level impact (reduction of incidence and mortality rates) and lower NNV per case and per death averted than if delivered to adolescents. For an intermediate vaccine scenario of 60% efficacy, 10-year protection, and 70% coverage, the reduction of tuberculosis incidence rates with older adult vaccination was 1·9 times (UI 1·5-2·6) to 157·5 times (119·3-225·6) greater than with adolescent vaccination, and the NNV was 0·011 times (0·008-0·014) to 0·796 times (0·632-0·970) lower. Furthermore, with older adult vaccination, post-infection vaccines provided substantially greater mortality and incidence rate reductions than pre-infection vaccines. INTERPRETATION: Adolescent-targeted tuberculosis vaccines, the focus of many development plans, would have only a small impact in ageing, reactivation-driven epidemics such as those in China. Instead, an efficacious post-infection vaccine delivered to older adults will be crucial to maximise population-level impact in this setting and would provide an important contribution towards achieving WHO goals. Older adults should be included in tuberculosis vaccine clinical development and implementation planning. FUNDING: Aeras and UK MRC.

Incidence of tuberculosis and the influence of surveillance strategy on tuberculosis case-finding and all-cause mortality: a cluster randomised trial in Indian neonates vaccinated with BCG.

Introduction: Accurate tuberculosis (TB) incidence and optimal surveillance strategies are pertinent to TB vaccine trial design. Infants are a targeted population for new TB vaccines, but data from India, with the highest global burden of TB cases, is limited. Methods: In a population-based prospective trial conducted between November 2006 and July 2008, BCG-vaccinated neonates in South India were enrolled and cluster-randomised to active or passive surveillance. We assessed the influence of surveillance strategy on TB incidence, case-finding rates and all-cause mortality. Predefined criteria were used to diagnose TB. All deaths were evaluated using a verbal autopsy. Results: 4382 children contributed to 8164 person-years (py) of follow-up (loss to follow-up 6.9%); 749 children were admitted for TB evaluation (active surveillance: 641; passive surveillance: 108). The TB incidence was 159.2/100 000 py and the overall case-finding rate was 3.19 per 100 py (95% CI 0.82 to 18.1). Whereas, the case-finding rate for definite TB was similar using active or passive case finding, the case-finding rate for probable TB was 1.92/100 py (95% CI 0.83 to 3.78) with active surveillance, significantly higher than 0.3/100 py (95% CI 0.01 to 1.39, p=0.02) with passive surveillance. Compared to passive surveillance, children with active surveillance had decreased risk of dying (OR 0.68, 95%CI 0.47 to 0.98) which was mostly attributable to reduction of death from pneumonia/respiratory infections (OR 0.34, 95%CI 0.14 to 0.80). Conclusion: We provide reliable estimates of TB incidence in South Indian children <2 years of age. Active surveillance increased the case-finding rates for probable TB and was associated with reduced all-cause mortality.

Empirical estimation of resource constraints for use in model-based economic evaluation: an example of TB services in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the relative costs and effects of interventions that do not consider 'real-world' constraints on implementation may be misleading. However, in many low- and middle-income countries, time and data scarcity mean that incorporating health system constraints in priority setting can be challenging. METHODS: We developed a 'proof of concept' method to empirically estimate health system constraints for inclusion in model-based economic evaluations, using intensified case-finding strategies (ICF) for tuberculosis (TB) in South Africa as an example. As part of a strategic planning process, we quantified the resources (fiscal and human) needed to scale up different ICF strategies (cough triage and WHO symptom screening). We identified and characterised three constraints through discussions with local stakeholders: (1) financial constraint: potential maximum increase in public TB financing available for new TB interventions; (2) human resource constraint: maximum current and future capacity among public sector nurses that could be dedicated to TB services; and (3) diagnostic supplies constraint: maximum ratio of Xpert MTB/RIF tests to TB notifications. We assessed the impact of these constraints on the costs of different ICF strategies. RESULTS: It would not be possible to reach the target coverage of ICF (as defined by policy makers) without addressing financial, human resource and diagnostic supplies constraints. The costs of addressing human resource constraints is substantial, increasing total TB programme costs during the period 2016-2035 by between 7% and 37% compared to assuming the expansion of ICF is unconstrained, depending on the ICF strategy chosen. CONCLUSIONS: Failure to include the costs of relaxing constraints may provide misleading estimates of costs, and therefore cost-effectiveness. In turn, these could impact the local relevance and credibility of analyses, thereby increasing the risk of sub-optimal investments.

What We Know About Tuberculosis Transmission: An Overview.

Tuberculosis remains a global health problem with an enormous burden of disease, estimated at 10.4 million new cases in 2015. To stop the tuberculosis epidemic, it is critical that we interrupt tuberculosis transmission. Further, the interventions required to interrupt tuberculosis transmission must be targeted to high-risk groups and settings. A simple cascade for tuberculosis transmission has been proposed in which (1) a source case of tuberculosis (2) generates infectious particles (3) that survive in the air and (4) are inhaled by a susceptible individual (5) who may become infected and (6) then has the potential to develop tuberculosis. Interventions that target these events will interrupt tuberculosis transmission and accelerate the decline in tuberculosis incidence and mortality. The purpose of this article is to provide a high-level overview of what is known about tuberculosis transmission, using the tuberculosis transmission cascade as a framework, and to set the scene for the articles in this series, which address specific aspects of tuberculosis transmission.

Diferencias angiográficas y epidemiológicas entre hombres y mujeres que desarrollan síndrome coronario agudo / Angiographic and epidemiological differences between men and women who developacute coronary syndrome

Resumen Introducción: la enfermedad cardiovascular es la principal causa de muerte en Colombia. Se han demostrado peores resultados clínicos en las mujeres a pesar de ser más prevalente en hombres. Objetivo: describir las diferencias angiográficas y epidemiológicas entre género de pacientes con síndrome coronario agudo. Métodos: se hizo un estudio descriptivo retrospectivo entre 2013-2014, en el que se incluyeron pacientes con síndrome coronario agudo que fueron separados por género. Se describieron factores de riesgo cardiovascular, biomarcadores de isquemia, angiografía coronaria y mortalidad intrahospitalaria. Los datos se analizaron en SPSS 20.0 Resultados: se estudiaron 148 pacientes; 35% tenían infarto con elevación del ST, 42,9% sin elevación del ST y 21% angina inestable. La prevalencia de enfermedad renal crónica para hombres y mujeres fue de 18,9 vs. 4,1% (p = 0,004); ataque cerebrovascular 2,7% vs. 14,9% (p = 0,009), de predominio femenino, este último. El valor de troponina fue mayor en hombres, 71,6 vs. 56,8% (p = 0,043). Las mujeres requirieron mayor implante de stent, 72,6 vs. 58,1% (p = 0,002); sin embargo, en el género masculino la prevalencia de enfermedad multivaso con indicación de revascularización coronaria fue mayor, 25,7 vs. 6,8% (p = 0,002). La afectación simultánea de las arterias descendente anterior proximal y circunfleja como criterio de severidad, fue mayor en hombres, 5,4 vs. 16,4%, con diferencias significativas (p = 0,032). Conclusiones: este estudio plantea la posibilidad de que en nuestra población pueden existir diferencias clínicas y fisiopatológicas entre género, constituyéndose en un factor fundamental para posibles cambios en su diagnóstico e intervención.

Abstract Introduction: Cardiovascular disease is the primary cause of death in Colombia. Poorer results have been shown in women, despite it being more prevalent in males. Objective: To describe the between-gender angiographic and epidemiological differences in patients with acute coronary syndrome. Methods: Between the years 2013 and 2014, a retrospective descriptive study was performed on patients with acute coronary syndrome that were grouped according to gender. An analysis was made of cardiovascular risk factors, ischaemia biomarkers, coronary angiography, and hospital mortality. The data were analysed using the SPSS 20.0 statistics package. Results: Of the 148 patients studied, 35% had an infarction with an ST elevation, 42.9% an infarction with no ST elevation, and 21% with unstable angina. The prevalence of chronic kidney disease for men and women was 18.9% vs. 4.1% (P=.004), and stroke 2.7% vs. 14.9% (P=.009), with the latter predominantly female. The Troponin value was higher in males, 71.6% vs. 56.8% (P=.043). The women required more stent implants, 72.6% vs. 58.1% (P=.002). However, the prevalence of multivessel disease with a coronary re-vascularisation indication was higher in males, 25.7% vs. 6.8% (P=.002). The simultaneous involvement of the proximal anterior descending and circumflex arteries as a criterion of severity was higher in males, 16.4% vs. 5.4%, with significant differences (P=.032). Conclusions: This study establishes the possibility that there can be between-gender clinical and pathophysiological differences, which may be a fundamental factor for possible changes in its diagnosis and intervention.

Latent tuberculosis infection in rural China: baseline results of a population-based, multicentre, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prophylactic treatment of individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is an essential component of tuberculosis control in some settings. In China, the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection, and preventive interventions against this disease, have not been systematically studied. We aimed to assess the prevalence of latent tuberculosis and its associated risk factors in rural populations in China. METHODS: Between July 1, and Sept 30, 2013, we undertook a baseline survey of a population-based, multicentre, prospective cohort study of registered residents (≥5 years old) at four study sites in rural China. Eligible participants were identified by door-to-door survey with a household sampling design. We screened participants for active tuberculosis and history of tuberculosis then used a tuberculin skin test and an interferon-γ release assay (QuantiFERON [QFT]) to test for latent infection. We used odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs to assess variables associated with positivity of QFT and tuberculin skin tests. FINDINGS: 21,022 (90%) of 23,483 eligible participants completed a baseline survey. Age-standardised and sex-standardised rates of skin-test positivity (≥10 mm) ranged from 15% to 42%, and QFT positivity rates ranged from 13% to 20%. Rates of positivity for the tuberculin skin test and the QFT test were low in study participants younger than 20 years and gradually increased with age (p for trend <0·0001). Rates of latent tuberculosis infection were higher for men than women (p<0·0001). Overall agreement between the tuberculin skin test and the QFT test was moderate (81·06%; kappa coefficient 0·485), with skin-test-only positive results associated with the presence of BCG scar, male sex, and ages of 60 years and older, and QFT-only positive results associated with male sex and ages of 60 years and older. INTERPRETATION: On the basis of findings showing that the performance of the tuberculin skin test might be affected by various factors including BCG vaccination and age, our results suggest that the prevalence of latent tuberculosis in China might be overestimated by skin tests compared with interferon-γ release assays. FUNDING: The National Science and Technology Major Project of China, the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of China.

Influence of age and nutritional status on the performance of the tuberculin skin test and QuantiFERON-TB gold in-tube in young children evaluated for tuberculosis in Southern India.

BACKGROUND: Reliable identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection or tuberculosis (TB) disease in young children is vital to assure adequate preventive and curative treatment. The tuberculin skin test (TST) and IFNγ-release assays may supplement the diagnosis of pediatric TB as cases are typically bacteriologically unconfirmed. However, it is unclear to what extent the performance of TST and QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT; Cellestis' IFNγ-release assay test) depends on the demographic, clinical and nutritional characteristics of children in whom they are tested. METHODS: During a 2-year prospective observational study of 4382 neonates in Southern India, children with suspected TB were investigated and classified by a standard TB diagnostic algorithm. RESULTS: Clinical TB was diagnosed in 13 of 705 children referred for case verification with suspected TB. TST and QFT had a susceptibility for clinical TB of 31% and 23%, respectively, in this group. Children <2 years were more likely to test QFT indeterminate. A height-for-age Z score within the lowest quartile increased the odds ratio (OR) for a positive or indeterminate QFT result [OR 2.46 (1.19-5.06), OR 3.08 (1.10-8.58)], whereas the OR for a positive TST was reduced with a weight-for-height Z score within the lowest quartile [OR 0.17 (0.06-0.47)]. CONCLUSION: The sensitivities of the TST and QFT for clinical TB in children <3 years of age were equally poor in this population. Stunted children were more susceptible to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and more prone to indeterminate QFT results. TST was less reliable in children with wasting.

Modeling the public health impact of malaria vaccines for developers and policymakers.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to develop malaria vaccines show promise. Mathematical model-based estimates of the potential demand, public health impact, and cost and financing requirements can be used to inform investment and adoption decisions by vaccine developers and policymakers on the use of malaria vaccines as complements to existing interventions. However, the complexity of such models may make their outputs inaccessible to non-modeling specialists. This paper describes a Malaria Vaccine Model (MVM) developed to address the specific needs of developers and policymakers, who need to access sophisticated modeling results and to test various scenarios in a user-friendly interface. The model's functionality is demonstrated through a hypothetical vaccine. METHODS: The MVM has three modules: supply and demand forecast; public health impact; and implementation cost and financing requirements. These modules include pre-entered reference data and also allow for user-defined inputs. The model includes an integrated sensitivity analysis function. Model functionality was demonstrated by estimating the public health impact of a hypothetical pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine with 85% efficacy against uncomplicated disease and a vaccine efficacy decay rate of four years, based on internationally-established targets. Demand for this hypothetical vaccine was estimated based on historical vaccine implementation rates for routine infant immunization in 40 African countries over a 10-year period. Assumed purchase price was $5 per dose and injection equipment and delivery costs were $0.40 per dose. RESULTS: The model projects the number of doses needed, uncomplicated and severe cases averted, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and cost to avert each. In the demonstration scenario, based on a projected demand of 532 million doses, the MVM estimated that 150 million uncomplicated cases of malaria and 1.1 million deaths would be averted over 10 years. This is equivalent to 943 uncomplicated cases and 7 deaths averted per 1,000 vaccinees. In discounted 2011 US dollars, this represents $11 per uncomplicated case averted and $1,482 per death averted. If vaccine efficacy were reduced to 75%, the estimated uncomplicated cases and deaths averted over 10 years would decrease by 14% and 19%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The MVM can provide valuable information to assist decision-making by vaccine developers and policymakers, information which will be refined and strengthened as field studies progress allowing further validation of modeling assumptions.