An Investigation of Age-Differentiated Conversations About Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems on Reddit.

Introduction: This study analyzes age-differentiated Reddit conversations about ENDS. Methods: This study combines 2 methods to (1) predict Reddit users' age into 2 categories (13-20 years [underage] and 21-54 years [of legal age]) using a machine learning algorithm and (2) qualitatively code ENDS-related Reddit posts within the 2 groups. The 25 posts with the highest karma score (number of upvotes minus number of downvotes) for each keyword search (i.e., query) and each predicted age group were qualitatively coded. Results: Of 9, the top 3 topics that emerged were flavor restriction policies, Tobacco 21 policies, and use. Opposition to flavor restriction policies was a prominent subcategory for both groups but was more common in the 21-54 group. The 13-20 group was more likely to discuss opposition to minimum age laws as well as access to flavored ENDS products. The 21-54 group commonly mentioned general vaping use behavior. Conclusions: Users predicted to be in the underage group posted about different ENDS-related topics on Reddit than users predicted to be in the of-legal-age group.

The EVALI outbreak and tobacco sales in the USA, 2014-2020.

BACKGROUND: The E-cigarette, or Vaping Product-Use Associated Lung Injury (EVALI) Outbreak of 2019 hospitalised thousands and killed dozens of people in the USA and raised perceptions of the dangers posed to health by electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). These illnesses along with continued increases in youth vaping rates lead to the passage of many state and federal laws intended to curtail the sale of flavoured e-cigarettes. Little is known about the impact of these events on US e-cigarette and cigarette retail sales. METHODS: Using Nielsen Scantrack sales data from January 2014 to January 2020 for 23 US states, we evaluate the effect of the EVALI outbreak. First-differenced state-panel regressions tracking unit sales of total-level and category-level e-cigarettes and cigarette sales controlling for price, Tobacco 21 policy coverage, product distribution, seasonality, EVALI-attributable deaths, and state-level e-cigarette policies affecting the availability of e-cigarettes (non-tobacco flavoured and total) were employed. RESULTS: Dollar sales of e-cigarettes declined 29% from their pre-EVALI peak by January 2020. Total sales of e-cigarettes declined in response to EVALI deaths and the total e-cigarette sales ban put in place in Massachusetts adopted in its wake. Cigarette sales were largely unchanged by either the direct or indirect policy effects of the EVALI outbreak, except for in Massachusetts, where cigarette sales-particularly those smoked by young people-rose temporarily after a total ban on e-cigarette sales. CONCLUSION: Sales of e-cigarettes declined in response to the EVALI outbreak and from the most restrictive regulatory policies that were adopted in response, while sales of cigarettes were affected less.

Tobacco 21 adoption decreased sales of cigarette brands purchased by young people: a translation of population health survey data to gain insight into market data for policy analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Policies raising the minimum age of sale of tobacco products to 21 (T21) proliferated at state and local levels across the USA before a federal policy was adopted. Evidence of the effectiveness of these policies is building and lags implementation. This study exploits demographic patterns of cigarette brand purchasing to evaluate the effectiveness of T21. METHODS: To capture the effect of T21 implementation on cigarette sales, we used universal product code-level data from Nielsen Scantrack data covering January 2015 to October 2019. We used the 2015 to 2018 National Survey on Drug Use and Health to identify cigarette brands where smokers under 21 comprised a disproportionately high (young) and low (old) share of consumption. We fit fixed-effects linear regressions in Nielsen designated market areas to test if sales of young or old cigarette brands were changed by T21. Unadjusted models controlled for time and T21 implementation date. Adjusted models controlled for price, seasonality and unemployment. A permutation test of 5000 randomised placebo T21 policies were fit to determine how well the true date of implementation fit sales data stratified by brand group. RESULTS: Sales of disproportionately young brands declined after T21 implementation. T21 policy implementation dates fit disproportionately young brand sales trends better than 99% of adjusted randomised placebo models. T21 implementation fit disproportionately old brand sales trends better than just 1% of adjusted randomised placebo models. CONCLUSION: This study adds compelling empirical evidence that T21 decreased purchases of the cigarette brands consumed disproportionately by young people, the policy's target demographic.

Applying the Population Health Standard to the Regulation of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems.

Regulatory authorities have devoted increasing attention and resources to a range of issues surrounding the regulation of novel nicotine and tobacco products. This review highlights the inherent complexity of evaluating prospective policies that pertain to products that heat solutions containing nicotine, but not tobacco leaf, sometimes referred to as electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is compelled to incorporate a set of public health criteria in their decision making, collectively referred to as the Population Health Standard. Adherence to this standard is necessary to estimate the impact of prospective ENDS policy decisions on net population harm associated with nontherapeutic nicotine products. For policies that are expected to decrease or increase ENDS use, application of the Population Health Standard requires a comprehensive assessment of the status quo impact of ENDS use on population health. Accordingly, this review first assesses the state of the evidence on the direct harms of ENDS and the indirect effects of ENDS use on smoking, particularly rates of initiation and cessation. After that, the example of flavor restrictions is used to demonstrate the further considerations that are involved in applying the Population Health Standard to a prospective ENDS policy. Implications: This narrative review aims to inform regulatory considerations about ENDS through the prism of the Population Health Standard. More specifically, this review (1) describes and explains the importance of this approach; (2) provides guidance on evaluating the state of the evidence linking ENDS to the net population harm associated with nontherapeutic nicotine products; and (3) illustrates how this framework can inform policymaking using the example of flavor restrictions.

Trends in E-Cigarette Use by Age Group and Combustible Cigarette Smoking Histories, U.S. Adults, 2014-2018.

INTRODUCTION: The trends in e-cigarette prevalence and population count of users according to cigarette smoking histories are unknown. These data are needed to inform public health actions against a rapidly changing U.S. e-cigarette market. METHODS: Data collected between 2014 and 2018 (analyzed in 2020) from cross-sectional, nationally representative National Health Interview Surveys were used to estimate current e-cigarette prevalence, adjusted prevalence differences (percentage points), and population counts of users. Analyses were stratified by age group (younger, 18-29 years, n=25,445; middle age, 30-49 years, n=47,745; older, ≥50 years, n=79,517) and cigarette smoking histories (current smokers, recent quitters [quit <1 year ago], near-term quitters [quit 1-8 years ago], long-term quitters [quit >8 years ago], never smokers). RESULTS: Among younger adults, e-cigarette use increased in all groups of smokers, with notable increases between 2014 and 2018 among never smokers (1.3%-3.3%, adjusted prevalence difference=2%, p<0.001) and near-term quitters (9.1%-19.2%, adjusted prevalence difference=8.8%, p=0.024). Conversely, the only substantial increase in e-cigarette use between 2014 and 2018 among middle-aged (5.8%-14.4%, adjusted prevalence difference=8.2%, p<0.001) and older (6.3%-9.5%, adjusted prevalence difference=3.3%, p=0.045) adults was among near-term quitters. The largest absolute population increase in e-cigarette users between 2014 and 2018 was among younger-adult never smokers (0.49-1.35 million), followed by near-term quitters among middle-aged (0.36-0.95 million), younger (0.23-0.57 million), and older (0.35-0.50 million) adults. CONCLUSIONS: The continuous increase among younger-adult never smokers suggests a rise in primary nicotine initiation with e-cigarettes. The concomitant increase among near-term quitters of all age groups suggests continuing e-cigarette use among smokers who may have switched from cigarettes previously.

Flavored E-Cigarette Sales in the United States Under Self-Regulation From January 2015 Through October 2019.

Objectives. To describe the evolution of flavored e-cigarette sales since the expansion of the JUUL brand, and to describe the effect of JUUL's November 2018 decision to self-regulate the flavors it sold in stores on flavored e-cigarette sales.Methods. We used Scantrack data on sales of e-cigarettes in the United States from January 2015 to October 2019 provided by The Nielsen Company. National sales values were aggregated monthly in 5 flavor categories (fruit, menthol/mint, sweet, tobacco, and other).Results. The expansion of JUUL sales coincided with an expansion in fruit-flavor sales through October 2018. Once JUUL withdrew fruit and sweet flavors from stores, menthol/mint came to dominate the e-cigarette market, but through 2019, a new surge in fruit-flavor sales by non-JUUL brands was observed.Conclusions. After a decline in sales following JUUL's decision to withdraw some flavored products from stores, JUUL sales recovered within weeks and surpassed their previous maximum in those same channels, as consumption shifted to the menthol/mint and tobacco flavors that remained on shelves.Public Health Implications. These trends suggest shortcomings of self-regulation and highlight the utility of government regulation.

Effect of IQOS introduction on cigarette sales: evidence of decline and replacement.

BACKGROUND: Philip Morris International, one of the largest transnational cigarette manufacturers, has heavily invested in its new heated tobacco product, IQOS, marketing it aggressively as a less harmful alternative to cigarette smoking. The company's assertions that the product replaces cigarettes in a market have never been independently tested. The objective of this study is to determine whether introduction of IQOS affected cigarette sales in a large economy. DATA AND METHODS: Using 2014 to 2018 monthly retailer panel data from Japan, we analyse whether different dates of IQOS introduction across Japan's regions are reflected in the patterns of cigarette sales in those regions. A series of placebo models are estimated to test if events other than IQOS introduction could have better explained the observed trends in cigarette sales. RESULTS: Cigarette sales begin to substantially decline at the time of the introduction of IQOS in each of 11 Japanese regions (Chow tests p<0.001). IQOS introduction, which varied across regions, better predicted the timing of cigarette sales decline than any one time applied to all regions simultaneously (a national-level exogenous shock) and than nearly all possible rearrangements of the true IQOS introduction months among the regions (exact permutation test's p value from 0.02 to 0.13, depending on the study approach). CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of IQOS likely reduced cigarette sales in Japan. The net population health impact, however, cannot be assessed without resolving several key uncertainties related to the direct harms of IQOS and the precise patterns of both smoking and IQOS use.

Examining e-cigarette purchases and cessation in a consumer panel of smokers.

OBJECTIVES: Examine correlates of initiation of e-cigarette use among smokers and determine the impact of e-cigarette use on cessation among smokers in a national U.S. consumer panel. METHODS: This study used the Nielsen Homescan Panel data from 2011 to 2013, augmented with state-specific measures of tobacco control activities, to examine 1) correlates of single and repeat e-cigarette purchasing among panelists currently purchasing cigarettes; and 2) correlates of "cessation". Participating panelists scanned all retail purchases, and Nielsen recorded over 3 million product types. The key explanatory variable for cessation was e-cigarette purchase. Parallel analysis was conducted for conventional nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) purchase. Cessation was defined as no purchases for at least 6 months and no subsequent purchases until the end of 2013. Analysis was conducted in 2015. E-cigarettes tracked by Nielsen during this period were cig-a-like products resembling tobacco cigarettes in appearance. RESULTS: Single e-cigarette purchase was associated with whether the panelist resided in a single person male household and bought a higher volume of cigarettes. Repeat purchase was associated with higher state cigarette taxes, less stringent state public smoke-free policies, lower cigarette prices, and more frequent cigarette purchasing. Cessation was associated with repeat e-cigarette purchasing, repeat NRT purchasing, younger age, lower monthly cigarette volume, less frequent purchasing of cigarettes, less recent cigarette purchase at baseline, and single e-cigarette purchase before baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Both individual and policy variables were associated with e-cigarette use. Repeat e-cigarette purchase was associated with cigarette purchase discontinuation, as were various smoking intensity measures.

Explaining the discontinuation of a non-tobacco nicotine project at Philip Morris: obstacles to innovation.

This paper investigates the fate of the Capillary Aerosol Generator (CAG), a nicotine aerosol device resembling modern e-cigarettes, developed by Philip Morris (PM) in 1994. A debate has emerged as to why this product never made it to market. In Donovan et al. v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., the sides presented opposing views in their arguments. To explore the reasons for CAG abandonment, we searched the Truth Tobacco Industry Documents database for key terms including 'Capillary Aerosol,' 'Project LEAP' (the project under which the CAG was housed), and 'Tony Howell' (CAG inventor). The results show that regulatory, legal, and political concerns deterred CAG development. A lack of progress even after these concerns had abated seems to reveal a larger reluctance to innovate non-tobacco products-perhaps due to concerns about competing against tobacco cigarettes. We also explored additional explanations such as technological barriers and lack of consumer interest.

Who's still smoking? Disparities in adult cigarette smoking prevalence in the United States.

The continuing high prevalence of cigarette smoking among specific subpopulations, many of them vulnerable, is one of the most pressing challenges facing the tobacco control community. These populations include individuals in lower education and/or socioeconomic groups; from certain racial/ethnic groups; in the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community; with mental illness; and in the military, particularly among those in the lowest pay grades. Although traditional tobacco control measures are having positive health effects for most groups, the effects are not sufficient for others. More attention to and support for promising novel interventions, in addition to new attempts at reaching these populations through conventional interventions that have proven to be effective, are crucial going forward to find new ways to address these disparities. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:106-115. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Key issues surrounding the health impacts of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) and other sources of nicotine.

Answer questions and earn CME/CNE Over the last decade, the use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), including the electronic cigarette or e-cigarette, has grown rapidly. More youth now use ENDS than any tobacco product. This extensive research review shows that there are scientifically sound, sometimes competing arguments about ENDS that are not immediately and/or completely resolvable. However, the preponderance of the scientific evidence to date suggests that current-generation ENDS products are demonstrably less harmful than combustible tobacco products such as conventional cigarettes in several key ways, including by generating far lower levels of carcinogens and other toxic compounds than combustible products or those that contain tobacco. To place ENDS in context, the authors begin by reviewing the trends in use of major nicotine-containing products. Because nicotine is the common core-and highly addictive-constituent across all tobacco products, its toxicology is examined. With its long history as the only nicotine product widely accepted as being relatively safe, nicotine-replacement therapy (NRT) is also examined. A section is also included that examines snus, the most debated potential harm-reduction product before ENDS. Between discussions of NRT and snus, ENDS are extensively examined: what they are, knowledge about their level of "harm," their relationship to smoking cessation, the so-called gateway effect, and dual use/poly-use. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:449-471. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

The Advertising Strategies of Early E-cigarette Brand Leaders in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: We examined differential advertising strategies used by 4 major United States e-cigarette companies with differential affiliations with the traditional tobacco industry (ie, Njoy - independent, Blu - acquired, Vuse and MarkTen - launched by cigarette companies) over time. METHODS: We conducted a mixed-methods study regarding e-cigarette adspend, adspend per media channel (eg, TV, print), and advertising messaging strategies among these 4 top e-cigarette brands from January 2013 through December 2015. RESULTS: E-cigarette adspend increased from $59 million in 2013 to $91 million in 2014, followed by a sharp decline to $37 million in 2015. These companies showed distinct spending trajectories overall and across media channels, with Njoy and Vuse spending a higher proportion of their dollars on TV and Blu and MarkTen spending more on print. Marketing messages were also different by company. Key themes included switching from cigarettes (particularly by Njoy and Blu), circumventing smoke-free policies (particularly by Blu), and technological advancement (particularly by Vuse and MarkTen). CONCLUSIONS: These e-cigarette brands have shifted their adspend, use of media channels, and advertising messaging strategies over time. Some differing strategies may reflect the different affiliations of each brand to the traditional cigarette industry.

An exploratory analysis of cigarette price premium, market share and consumer loyalty in relation to continued consumption versus cessation in a national US panel.

INTRODUCTION: Brand equity and consumer loyalty play a role in continued purchasing behaviour; however, this research has largely focused on non-addictive products without counter-marketing tactics. We examined the impact of brand equity (price premium, market share) and consumer loyalty (switching rates) on smoking cessation (discontinued cigarette purchases for 1 year) among smokers in a consumer panel. METHODS: In Spring 2015, we analysed 1077 cigarette-purchasing households in the Nielsen Homescan Panel. We analysed cessation in relation to brand equity, consumer loyalty, other purchasing behaviours (nicotine intake, frequency), sociodemographics and tobacco control activities (per state-specific data) over a 6-year period (2004-2009) using Cox proportional hazard modelling. RESULTS: The sample was 13.28% African-American; the average income was $52,334 (SD=31,445). The average price premium and market share of smokers' dominant brands were $1.31 (SD=0.49) and 15.41% (SD=19.15), respectively. The mean brand loyalty level was 0.90 (SD=0.17), indicating high loyalty. In our final model, a higher price premium and market share were associated with lower quit rates (p=0.039); however, an interaction effect suggested that greater market share was not associated with lower cessation rates for African-American smokers (p=0.006). Consumer loyalty was not associated with cessation. Other predictors of lower quit rates included a higher nicotine intake (p=0.006) and baseline purchase frequency (p<0.001). Tobacco control factors were not significantly associated. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers of high-equity cigarette brands are less likely to quit, perhaps due to strong brand-consumer relationships. Thus, continued efforts should aim to regulate tobacco marketing efforts in order to disrupt these relationships to promote cessation.

France acts on electronic cigarettes.

France is deciding how to regulate electronic cigarettes. I first consider the French approach and how it contrasts with other attempts at electronic cigarette regulation globally. Next, I critique the individual elements of the French proposal. The overall approach taken by France is a positive development, but banning indoor use appears unnecessary and banning advertising may be counterproductive.

Electronic cigarettes as a harm reduction strategy for tobacco control: a step forward or a repeat of past mistakes?

The issue of harm reduction has long been controversial in the public health practice of tobacco control. Health advocates have been reluctant to endorse a harm reduction approach out of fear that tobacco companies cannot be trusted to produce and market products that will reduce the risks associated with tobacco use. Recently, companies independent of the tobacco industry introduced electronic cigarettes, devices that deliver vaporized nicotine without combusting tobacco. We review the existing evidence on the safety and efficacy of electronic cigarettes. We then revisit the tobacco harm reduction debate, with a focus on these novel products. We conclude that electronic cigarettes show tremendous promise in the fight against tobacco-related morbidity and mortality. By dramatically expanding the potential for harm reduction strategies to achieve substantial health gains, they may fundamentally alter the tobacco harm reduction debate.