Multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and prevalence estimates and projections, Australia, 1982-2043: a statistical modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates during 1982-2018, and to estimate its incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 2019-2043. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based statistical modelling study; analysis of and projections based on Australian Institute of Health and Welfare multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and survival data. SETTING: Australia, 1982-2018 (historical data) and projections to 2043. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates, 1982-2018, determined by joinpoint regression analysis (age-standardised to 2021 Australian population); projection of rates to 2043 based on age-period-cohort models; estimated 5- and 30-year prevalence of multiple myeloma (modified counting method). RESULTS: The incidence of multiple myeloma increased during 1982-2018 (eg, annual percentage change [APC], 2006-2018, 1.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-2.2%), but the mortality rate declined during 1990-2018 (APC, -0.4%; 95% CI, -0.5% to -0.2%). The age-standardised incidence rate was projected to increase by 14.9% during 2018-2043, from 8.7 in 2018 to 10.0 (95% CI, 9.4-10.7) new cases per 100 000 population in 2043; the mortality rate was projected to decline by 27.5%, from 4.0 to 2.9 (95% CI, 2.6-3.3) deaths per 100 000 population. The annual number of people newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma was estimated to increase by 89.2%, from 2120 in 2018 to 4012 in 2043; the number of deaths from multiple myeloma was projected to increase by 31.7%, from 979 to 1289. The number of people living with multiple myeloma up to 30 years after initial diagnosis was projected to increase by 163%, from 10 288 in 2018 to 27 093 in 2043, including 13 019 people (48.1%) diagnosed during the preceding five years. CONCLUSION: Although the decline in the mortality rate was projected to continue, the projected increases in the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma in Australia over the next 25 years indicate that investment in prevention and early detection research, and planning for prolonged treatment and care, are needed.

State-level disparities in cervical cancer prevention and impact on outcomes in the U.S.: A modeling study.

Background: Despite the availability of HPV vaccines for over a decade, coverage across the United States (US) is varied. While some states have made concerted efforts to increase HPV vaccination coverage, most model-based analyses have estimated vaccine impact on the US. We estimated the impact of hypothetical changes in HPV vaccination coverage at the state level for three states with varying levels of HPV vaccination coverage and cervical cancer incidence (California, New York, Texas) using a mathematical model. Methods: We developed a new mathematical model of HPV transmission and cervical cancer tailored to state-level cancer incidence and mortality. We quantified the public health impact of increasing HPV vaccination coverage to 80% by 2025 or 2030 and the effect on time to elimination in the three states. Results: Increasing vaccination coverage to 80% in Texas in 10 years could reduce cervical cancer incidence by 50.9% (95%-CrI: 46.6-56.1%) by 2100. In New York and California, achieving the same coverage could reduce incidence by 27.3% (95%-CrI: 23.9-31.5%) and 24.4% (95%-CrI: 20.0-30.0%), respectively. Achieving 80% coverage in 5 years will slightly increase the reduction. If 2019 vaccination coverage continues, cervical cancer elimination would be reached in the US by 2051 (95%-Crl: 2034-2064). However, the timeline by which individual states reach elimination could vary by decades. Conclusion: Achieving an HPV vaccination coverage target of 80% by 2030 will benefit states with low vaccination coverage and high cervical cancer incidence the most. Our results highlight the value of more geographically focused analyses to inform priorities.

Multiple myeloma survival in New South Wales, Australia, by treatment era to 2020.

OBJECTIVE: Australia has relatively high multiple myeloma (MM) incidence and mortality rates. Advancements in MM treatment over recent decades have driven improvements in MM survival in high-income countries; however, reporting in Australia is limited. We investigated temporal trends in population-wide MM survival across 3 periods of treatment advancements in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS: Individuals with an MM diagnosis in the NSW Cancer Registry between 1985 and 2015 with vital follow-up to 2020, were categorized into 3 previously defined treatment eras according to their diagnosis date (1985-1995, chemotherapy only; 1996-2007, autologous stem cell transplantation; and 2008-2015, novel agents including proteasome inhibitors and immunomodulatory drugs). Both relative survival and cause-specific survival according to Fine and Gray's competing risks cumulative incidence function were calculated by treatment era and age at diagnosis. RESULTS: Overall, 11,591 individuals were included in the study, with a median age of 70 years at diagnosis. Five-year relative survival improved over the 36-year (1985-2020) study period (31.0% in 1985-1995; 41.9% in 1996-2007; and 56.1% in 2008-2015). For individuals diagnosed before 70 years of age, the 5-year relative survival nearly doubled, from 36.5% in 1985-1995 to 68.5% in 2008-2015. Improvements for those > 70 years of age were less pronounced between 1985-1995 and 1996-2007; however, significant improvements were observed for those diagnosed in 2008-2015. Similar overall and age-specific patterns were observed for cause-specific survival. After adjustment for gender and age at diagnosis, treatment era was strongly associated with both relative and cause-specific survival (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Survival of individuals with MM is improving in Australia with treatment advances. However, older age groups continue to experience poor survival outcomes with only modest improvements over time. Given the increasing prevalence of MM in Australia, the effects of MM treatment on quality of life, particularly in older age, warrant further attention.

Impact of cancer diagnosis on life expectancy by area-level socioeconomic groups in New South Wales, Australia: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Improvement in cancer survival over recent decades has not been accompanied by a narrowing of socioeconomic disparities. This study aimed to quantify the loss of life expectancy (LOLE) resulting from a cancer diagnosis and examine disparities in LOLE based on area-level socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS: Data were collected for all people between 50 and 89 years of age who were diagnosed with cancer, registered in the NSW Cancer Registry between 2001 and 2019, and underwent mortality follow-up evaluations until December 2020. Flexible parametric survival models were fitted to estimate the LOLE by gender and area-level SES for 12 common cancers. RESULTS: Of 422,680 people with cancer, 24% and 18% lived in the most and least disadvantaged areas, respectively. Patients from the most disadvantaged areas had a significantly greater average LOLE than patients from the least disadvantaged areas for cancers with high survival rates, including prostate [2.9 years (95% CI: 2.5-3.2 years) vs. 1.6 years (95% CI: 1.3-1.9 years)] and breast cancer [1.6 years (95% CI: 1.4-1.8 years) vs. 1.2 years (95% CI: 1.0-1.4 years)]. The highest average LOLE occurred in males residing in the most disadvantaged areas with pancreatic [16.5 years (95% CI: 16.1-16.8 years) vs. 16.2 years (95% CI: 15.7-16.7 years)] and liver cancer [15.5 years (95% CI: 15.0-16.0 years) vs. 14.7 years (95% CI: 14.0-15.5 years)]. Females residing in the least disadvantaged areas with thyroid cancer [0.9 years (95% CI: 0.4-1.4 years) vs. 0.6 years (95% CI: 0.2-1.0 years)] or melanoma [0.9 years (95% CI: 0.8-1.1 years) vs. 0.7 years (95% CI: 0.5-0.8 years)] had the lowest average LOLE. CONCLUSIONS: Patients from the most disadvantaged areas had the highest LOLE with SES-based differences greatest for patients diagnosed with cancer at an early stage or cancers with higher survival rates, suggesting the need to prioritise early detection and reduce treatment-related barriers and survivorship challenges to improve life expectancy.

Global review of COVID-19 mitigation strategies and their impact on cancer service disruptions.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries adopted mitigation strategies to reduce disruptions to cancer services. We reviewed their implementation across health system functions and their impact on cancer diagnosis and care during the pandemic. A systematic search was performed using terms related to cancer and COVID-19. Included studies reported on individuals with cancer or cancer care services, focusing on strategies/programs aimed to reduce delays and disruptions. Extracted data were grouped into four functions (governance, financing, service delivery, and resource generation) and sub-functions of the health system performance assessment framework. We included 30 studies from 16 countries involving 192,233 patients with cancer. Multiple mitigation approaches were implemented, predominantly affecting sub-functions of service delivery to control COVID-19 infection via the suspension of non-urgent cancer care, modified treatment guidelines, and increased telemedicine use in routine cancer care delivery. Resource generation was mainly ensured through adequate workforce supply. However, less emphasis on monitoring or assessing the effectiveness and financing of these strategies was observed. Seventeen studies suggested improved service uptake after mitigation implementation, yet the resulting impact on cancer diagnosis and care has not been established. This review emphasizes the importance of developing effective mitigation strategies across all health system (sub)functions to minimize cancer care service disruptions during crises. Deficiencies were observed in health service delivery (to ensure equity), governance (to monitor and evaluate the implementation of mitigation strategies), and financing. In the wake of future emergencies, implementation research studies that include pre-prepared protocols will be essential to assess mitigation impact across cancer care services.

Out-of-pocket health care expenses for people with and without cancer, New South Wales, 2020: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate self-reported out-of-pocket health care expenses, both overall and by cost type, for a large population-based sample of Australians, by cancer status and socio-demographic and medical characteristics. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: New South Wales residents participating in the 45 and Up Study (recruited aged 45 years or older during 2005-2009) who completed the 2020 follow-up questionnaire; survey responses linked with New South Wales Cancer Registry data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions of respondents who reported that out-of-pocket health care expenses during the preceding twelve months exceeded $1000 or $10 000; adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for associations with socio-demographic and medical characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 267 357 recruited 45 and Up Study participants, 45 061 completed the 2020 survey (response rate, 53%); 42.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42.2-43.1%) reported that overall out-of-pocket health care expenses during the previous year exceeded $1000, including 55.4% (52.1-58.7%) of participants diagnosed in the preceding two years and 44.9% (43.7-46.1%) of participants diagnosed with cancer more than two years ago. After adjustment for socio-demographic factors, out-of-pocket expenses greater than $1000 were more likely to be reported by participants with cancer than by those without cancer (diagnosis in past two years: aOR, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.77-2.40]; diagnosis more than two years ago: aOR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.15-1.29]). The odds of out-of-pocket expenses exceeding $1000 increased with area-based socio-economic advantage and household income, and were higher for people with private health insurance (v people with Medicare coverage only: aOR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.53-1.75). Out-of-pocket expenses exceeding $10 000 were also more likely for participants diagnosed with cancer during the past two years (v no cancer: aOR, 3.30; 95% CI, 2.56-4.26). CONCLUSIONS: People diagnosed with cancer during the past two years were much more likely than people without cancer to report twelve-month out-of-pocket health care expenses that exceeded $1000. Out-of-pocket expenses for people with cancer can exacerbate financial strain at a time of vulnerability, and affect health care equity because some people cannot pay for all available treatments.

Building Capacity for Cervical Cancer Prevention in U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands: The Pacific Against Cervical Cancer Project.

The U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) have higher cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates and lower screening coverage compared with the United States. This is likely because of economic, geographical, health care delivery, and cultural barriers for women living in these resource-constrained, isolated regions. The most recent U.S. and World Health Organization cervical cancer screening guidelines recommended primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing as one screening option or the preferred screening modality. Primary HPV screening-based strategies offer several advantages over current screening methods in the USAPI. However, adoption of this newer screening modality has been slow in the United States and not yet incorporated into USAPI screening programs. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and partners initiated the Pacific Against Cervical Cancer (PACe) project in 2019 to evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, and cost-effectiveness of primary HPV testing-based strategies in Guam and in Yap, Federated States of Micronesia. This report provides an overview of the PACe project and outlines the approaches we took in implementing primary HPV testing as a new cervical cancer screening strategy (including the option of self-sampling in Yap), encompassing four core components: (1) community engagement and education, (2) medical and laboratory capacity building, (3) health information and system improvement, and (4) modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis. The PACe project provides examples of systematic implementation and resource appropriate technologies to the USAPI, with broader implications for never screened and under-screened populations in the United States and Pacific as they face similar barriers to accessing cervical cancer screening services.

Public Preferences for Genetic and Genomic Risk-Informed Chronic Disease Screening and Early Detection: A Systematic Review of Discrete Choice Experiments.

PURPOSE: Genetic and genomic testing can provide valuable information on individuals' risk of chronic diseases, presenting an opportunity for risk-tailored disease screening to improve early detection and health outcomes. The acceptability, uptake and effectiveness of such programmes is dependent on public preferences for the programme features. This study aims to conduct a systematic review of discrete choice experiments assessing preferences for genetic/genomic risk-tailored chronic disease screening. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, EconLit and Cochrane Library were searched in October 2023 for discrete choice experiment studies assessing preferences for genetic or genomic risk-tailored chronic disease screening. Eligible studies were double screened, extracted and synthesised through descriptive statistics and content analysis of themes. Bias was assessed using an existing quality checklist. RESULTS: Twelve studies were included. Most studies focused on cancer screening (n = 10) and explored preferences for testing of rare, high-risk variants (n = 10), largely within a targeted population (e.g. subgroups with family history of disease). Two studies explored preferences for the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) at a population level. Twenty-six programme attributes were identified, with most significantly impacting preferences. Survival, test accuracy and screening impact were most frequently reported as most important. Depending on the clinical context and programme attributes and levels, estimated uptake of hypothetical programmes varied from no participation to almost full participation (97%). CONCLUSION: The uptake of potential programmes would strongly depend on specific programme features and the disease context. In particular, careful communication of potential survival benefits and likely genetic/genomic test accuracy might encourage uptake of genetic and genomic risk-tailored disease screening programmes. As the majority of the literature focused on high-risk variants and cancer screening, further research is required to understand preferences specific to PRS testing at a population level and targeted genomic testing for different disease contexts.

Association of optimism and social support with health-related quality of life among Australian women cancer survivors - A cohort study.

AIM: Large-scale studies investigating health-related quality of life (HRQL) in cancer survivors are limited. This study aims to investigate HRQL and its relation to optimism and social support among Australian women following a cancer diagnosis. METHODS: Data were from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, a large cohort study (n = 14,715; born 1946-51), with 1428 incident cancer cases ascertained 1996-2017 via linkage to the Australian Cancer Database. HRQL was measured using the Short Form-36 (median 1.7 years post-cancer-diagnosis). Multivariable linear regression was performed on each HRQL domain, separately for all cancers combined, major cancer sites, and cancer-free peers. RESULTS: Higher optimism and social support were significantly associated with better HRQL across various domains in women with and without a cancer diagnosis (p < 0.05). Mean HRQL scores across all domains for all cancer sites were significantly higher among optimistic versus not optimistic women with cancer (p < 0.05). Adjusting for sociodemographic and other health conditions, lower optimism was associated with reduced scores across all domains, with greater reductions in mental health (adjusted mean difference (AMD) = -11.54, p < 0.01) followed by general health (AMD = -11.08, p < 0.01). Social support was less consistently related to HRQL scores, and following adjustment was only significantly associated with social functioning (AMD = -7.22, p < 0.01) and mental health (AMD = -6.34, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight a strong connection between optimism, social support, and HRQL among cancer survivors. Providing psychosocial support and addressing behavioral and socioeconomic factors and other health conditions associated with optimism and social support may improve HRQL.

COVID-related disruptions to colorectal cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment could increase cancer Burden in Australia and Canada: A modelling study.

COVID-19 disrupted cancer control worldwide, impacting preventative screening, diagnoses, and treatment services. This modelling study estimates the impact of disruptions on colorectal cancer cases and deaths in Canada and Australia, informed by data on screening, diagnosis, and treatment procedures. Modelling was used to estimate short- and long-term effects on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality, including ongoing impact of patient backlogs. A hypothetical mitigation strategy was simulated, with diagnostic and treatment capacities increased by 5% from 2022 to address backlogs. Colorectal cancer screening dropped by 40% in Canada and 6.3% in Australia in 2020. Significant decreases to diagnostic and treatment procedures were also observed in Australia and Canada, which were estimated to lead to additional patient wait times. These changes would lead to an estimated increase of 255 colorectal cancer cases and 1,820 colorectal cancer deaths in Canada and 234 cases and 1,186 deaths in Australia over 2020-2030; a 1.9% and 2.4% increase in mortality, respectively, vs a scenario with no screening disruption or diagnostic/treatment delays. Diagnostic and treatment capacity mitigation would avert 789 and 350 deaths in Canada and Australia, respectively. COVID-related disruptions had a significant impact on colorectal cancer screening, diagnostic, and treatment procedures in Canada and Australia. Modelling demonstrates that downstream effects on disease burden could be substantial. However, backlogs can be managed and deaths averted with even small increases to diagnostic and treatment capacity. Careful management of resources can improve patient outcomes after any temporary disruption, and these results can inform targeted approaches early detection of cancers.

Impact of weighting on the association between sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviours and cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the Australian 45 and Up Study.

BACKGROUND: Weighting can improve study estimate representativeness. We examined the impact of weighting on associations between participants' characteristics and cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort. METHODS: Raking weighted cohort data to the 2006 Australian population for seven sociodemographic characteristics. Deaths were ascertained via linkage to routinely collected data. Cox's proportional hazards regression quantified associations between 11 sociodemographic and health characteristics and cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The ratios of hazard ratios (RHRs) compared unweighted and weighted estimates. RESULTS: Among 195,052 included participants (median follow-up 11.4 years), there were 7200 cancer, 5912 cardiovascular and 21,840 all-cause deaths. Overall, 102/111 (91.9%) weighted HRs did not differ significantly from unweighted HRs (100%, 86.5% and 89.2% of 37 HRs for cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, respectively). Significant differences included a somewhat stronger association between single/widowed/divorced (versus married/de-facto) and cardiovascular mortality (unweighted HR=1.25 (95%CI:1.18-1.32), weighted HR=1.33 (95%CI:1.24-1.42), RHR=1.06 (95%CI:1.02-1.11)); and between no school certificate/qualification (versus university degree) and all-cause mortality (unweighted HR=1.21 (95%CI:1.15-1.27), weighted HR=1.28 (95%CI:1.19-1.38), RHR=1.06 (95%CI:1.03-1.10)). CONCLUSION: Our results support the generalisability of most estimates of associations in the 45 and Up Study, particularly in relation to cancer mortality. Slight distortion of a few associations with cardiovascular or all-cause mortality were observed.

The association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality: An umbrella review of systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume drinkers as a reference group.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality have reported different relative risk (RR) curves, possibly due to the choice of reference group. Results have varied from 'J-shaped' curves, where low-volume consumption is associated with reduced risk, to monotonically increased risk with increasing consumption. We summarised the evidence on alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality exclusively from systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers as the reference group. METHODS: We conducted a systematic umbrella review of systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality in prospective cohort studies using a reference group of lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers. Several databases (PubMed/Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/Cochrane Library) were searched to March 2022. Reviews were assessed for risk of bias, and those with reference groups containing former drinkers were excluded. RESULTS: From 2149 articles retrieved, 25 systematic reviews were identified, and five did not include former drinkers in the reference group. Four of the five included reviews had high risk of bias. Three reviews reported a J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality with significant decreased risk for low-volume drinking (RR range 0.84 to 0.95), while two reviews did not. The one review at low risk of bias reported monotonically increased risk with greater consumption (RRs = 1.02, 1.13, 1.33 and 1.52 for low-, medium-, high- and higher-volume drinking, respectively, compared with occasional drinking). All five reviews reported significantly increased risk with higher levels of alcohol consumption (RR range 1.28 to 3.70). Sub-group analyses were reported by sex and age; however, there were evidence gaps for many important factors. Conversely, 17 of 20 excluded systematic reviews reported decreased mortality risk for low-volume drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Over 70% of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published to March 2022 of all-cause mortality risk associated with alcohol consumption did not exclude former drinkers from the reference group and may therefore be biased by the 'sick-quitter effect'.

Trends and projections of cause-specific premature mortality in Australia to 2044: a statistical modelling study.

Background: Long-term projections of premature mortality (defined as deaths age <75 years) help to inform decisions about public health priorities. This study aimed to project premature mortality rates in Australia to 2044, and to estimate numbers of deaths and potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality overall and for 59 causes. Methods: We examined the past trends in premature mortality rates using Australian mortality data by sex, 5-year age group and 5-year calendar period up to 2019. Cigarette smoking exposure data (1945-2019) were included to project lung cancer mortality. Age-period-cohort or generalised linear models were developed and validated for each cause to project premature mortality rates to 2044. Findings: Over the 25-year period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, there was a 44.4% decrease in the overall age-standardised premature mortality rate. This decline is expected to continue, from 162.4 deaths/100,000 population in 2015-2019 to 141.7/100,000 in 2040-2044 (12.7% decrease). Despite declining rates, total numbers of premature deaths are projected to increase by 22.8%, rising from 272,815 deaths in 2015-2019 to 334,894 deaths in 2040-2044. This is expected to result in 1.58 million premature deaths over the 25-year period 2020-2044, accounting for 24.5 million PYLL. Of the high-level cause categories, cancer is projected to remain the most common cause of premature death in Australia by 2044, followed by cardiovascular disease, external causes (including injury, poisoning, and suicide), and respiratory diseases. Interpretation: Despite continuously declining overall premature mortality rates, the total number of premature deaths in Australia is projected to remain substantial, and cancer will continue to be the leading cause. These projections can inform the targeting of public health efforts and can serve as benchmarks against which to measure the impact of future interventions. They emphasise the ongoing importance of accelerating the prevention, early detection, and treatment of key health conditions. Funding: No funding was provided for this study.

Cancer screening programs in South-east Asia and Western Pacific.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cancer can be altered by screening. The field of cancer screening is constantly evolving; from the initiation of program for new cancer types as well as exploring innovative screening strategies (e.g. new screening tests). The aim of this study was to perform a landscape analysis of existing cancer screening programs in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. METHODS: We conducted an overview of cancer screening in the region with the goal of summarizing current designs of cancer screening programs. First, a selective narrative literature review was used as an exploration to identify countries with organized screening programs. Second, representatives of each country with an organized program were approached and asked to provide relevant information on the organizations of their national or regional cancer screening program. RESULTS: There was wide variation in the screening strategies offered in the considered region with only eight programs identified as having an organized design. The majority of these programs did not meet all the essential criteria for being organized screening. The greatest variation was observed in the starting and stopping ages. CONCLUSIONS: Essential criteria of organized screening are missed. Improving organization is crucial to ensure that the beneficial effects of screening are achieved in the long-term. It is strongly recommended to consider a regional cancer screening network.

Participation in the national cervical screening programme among women from New South Wales, Australia, by place of birth and time since immigration: A data linkage analysis using the 45 and up study.

OBJECTIVE: Equitable elimination of cervical cancer in Australia within the next decade will require high National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) participation by all subgroups of women. The aim of this study was to examine the participation of immigrants compared to Australian-born women. METHODS: Participation in the NCSP (≥1cytology test) over a 3-year (2010-2012) and 5-year (2008-2012) period, by place of birth and time since immigration was examined using individually linked data of 67,350 New South Wales (NSW) women aged ≥45 enrolled in the 45 and Up Study. RESULTS: Three-year cervical screening participation was 77.0% overall. Compared to Australian-born women (77.8%), 3-year participation was lower for women born in New Zealand (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.87), Oceania (0.67, 0.51-0.89), Middle East/North Africa (0.76, 0.60-0.97), South-East Asia (0.72, 0.60-0.87), Chinese Asia (0.82, 0.69-0.97), Japan/South Korea (0.68, 0.50-0.94), and Southern/Central Asia (0.54, 0.43-0.67), but higher for women from Malta (2.85, 1.77-4.58) and South America (1.33, 1.01-1.75). Non-English-speaking-at-home women were less likely to be screened than English-speaking-at-home women (0.85, 0.78-0.93). Participation increased with years lived in Australia but remained lower in immigrant groups compared to Australian-born women, even after ≥20 years living in Australia. Similar results were observed for 5-year participation. CONCLUSIONS: Women born in New Zealand, Oceania, and parts of Asia and the Middle East had lower NCSP participation, which persisted for ≥20 years post-immigration. The NCSP transition to primary HPV screening, and the introduction of the universal self-collection option in 2022, will offer new opportunities for increasing screening participation for these groups.

Benefits and harms of prostate specific antigen testing according to Australian guidelines.

Guidelines for prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing in Australia recommend that men at average risk of prostate cancer who have been informed of the benefits and harms, and who decide to undergo regular testing, should be offered testing every 2 years from 50 to 69 years. This study aimed to estimate the benefits and harms of regular testing in this context. We constructed Policy1-Prostate, a discrete event microsimulation platform of the natural history of prostate cancer and prostate cancer survival, and PSA testing patterns and subsequent management in Australia. The model was calibrated to pre-PSA (before 1985) prostate cancer incidence and mortality and validated against incidence and mortality trends from 1985 to 2011 and international trials. The model predictions were concordant with trials and Australian observed incidence and mortality data from 1985 to 2011. Out of 1000 men who choose to test according to the guidelines, 36 [21-41] men will die from prostate cancer and 126 [119-133] men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer, compared with 50 [47-54] and 94 [90-98] men who do not test, respectively. During the 20 years of active PSA testing, 32.3% [25.6%-38.8%] of all PSA-test detected cancers are overdiagnosed cases that is, 30 [21-42] out of 94 [83-107] PSA-test detected cancers. Australian men choosing to test with PSA every two years from 50 to 69 will reduce their risk of ever dying from prostate cancer and incur a risk of overdiagnosis: for every man who avoids dying from prostate cancer, two will be overdiagnosed with prostate cancer between 50 and 69 years of age. Australian men, with health professionals, can use these results to inform decision-making about PSA testing.

Benefits and harms of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies in women living with HIV.

To support a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reviewed its guidelines for screening and treatment of cervical pre-cancerous lesions in 2021. Women living with HIV have 6-times the risk of cervical cancer compared to women in the general population, and we harnessed a model platform ('Policy1-Cervix-HIV') to evaluate the benefits and harms of a range of screening strategies for women living with HIV in Tanzania, a country with endemic HIV. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that 3-yearly primary HPV screening without triage would reduce age-standardised cervical cancer mortality rates by 72%, with a number needed to treat (NNT) of 38.7, to prevent a cervical cancer death. Triaging HPV positive women before treatment resulted in minimal loss of effectiveness and had more favorable NNTs (19.7-33.0). Screening using visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) or cytology was less effective than primary HPV and, in the case of VIA, generated a far higher NNT of 107.5. These findings support the WHO 2021 recommendation that women living with HIV are screened with primary HPV testing in a screen-triage-and-treat approach starting at 25 years, with regular screening every 3-5 years.

Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies for women in the general population.

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To support the strategy, the WHO published updated cervical screening guidelines in 2021. To inform this update, we used an established modeling platform, Policy1-Cervix, to evaluate the impact of seven primary screening scenarios across 78 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) for the general population of women. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that primary human papillomavirus (HPV) screening approaches were the most effective and cost-effective, reducing cervical cancer age-standardized mortality rates by 63-67% when offered every 5 years. Strategies involving triaging women before treatment (with 16/18 genotyping, cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) or colposcopy) had close-to-similar effectiveness to HPV screening without triage and fewer pre-cancer treatments. Screening with VIA or cytology every 3 years was less effective and less cost-effective than HPV screening every 5 years. Furthermore, VIA generated more than double the number of pre-cancer treatments compared to HPV. In conclusion, primary HPV screening is the most effective, cost-effective and efficient cervical screening option in LMICs. These findings have directly informed WHO's updated cervical screening guidelines for the general population of women, which recommend primary HPV screening in a screen-and-treat or screen-triage-and-treat approach, starting from age 30 years with screening every 5 years or 10 years.

Cancer screening in China: a steep road from evidence to implementation.

Cancer screening has the potential to decrease mortality from several common cancer types. The first cancer screening programme in China was initiated in 1958 and the Cancer High Incidence Fields established in the 1970s have provided an extensive source of information for national cancer screening programmes. From 2012 onwards, four ongoing national cancer screening programmes have targeted eight cancer types: cervical, breast, colorectal, lung, oesophageal, stomach, liver, and nasopharyngeal cancers. By synthesising evidence from pilot screening programmes and population-based studies for various screening tests, China has developed a series of cancer screening guidelines. Nevertheless, challenges remain for the implementation of a fully successful population-based programme. The aim of this Review is to highlight the key milestones and the current status of cancer screening in China, describe what has been achieved to date, and identify the barriers in transitioning from evidence to implementation. We also make a set of implementation recommendations on the basis of the Chinese experience, which might be useful in the establishment of cancer screening programmes in other countries.

A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination.

COVID-19 disrupted school attendance in many countries, delaying routine adolescent vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in some settings. We used Policy1-Cervix, a dynamic model simulating HPV transmission, natural history, vaccination, cervical screening, and diagnosis of HPV-related cancers, to estimate the impact on HPV-related cancers from disruptions to HPV vaccination in a high-income setting. A baseline scenario of no disruption to HPV vaccination was modelled, which assumed uptake of the nonavalent vaccine at the age of 12 by 82.4% of females and 75.5% of males, as is the coverage in Australia. Additional lifetime HPV-related cancer cases were calculated for three disruption scenarios affecting one birth cohort (2008; aged 12 in 2020) compared to the baseline scenario: (1) 1-year delay (no doses missed); (2) 1- to 7-year delay (slow catch-up); (3) no catch-up (herd effects only). A fourth scenario assumed no catch-up HPV vaccination for two birth cohorts, that is all individuals born in 2008 and in 2009 missed vaccination (worst-case scenario). Compared to 1532 HPV-related cancer cases estimated for the baseline no disruption scenario, we found a 1-year delay could result in ≤0.3% more HPV-related cancers (n = 4) but the increase would be greater if catch-up was slower (5%; n = 70), and especially if there was no catch-up (49%; n = 750). Additional cancers for a single missed cohort were most commonly cervical (23% of the additional cases) and anal cancers (16%) in females and oropharyngeal cancers in males (20%). In the worst-case scenario of two birth cohorts missing vaccination, ≤62% more HPV-related cancers would be diagnosed (n = 1892). In conclusion, providing catch-up of missed HPV vaccines is conducted, short-term delays in vaccinating adolescents are unlikely to have substantial long-term effects on cancer.