Ten-Year Risk Equations for Incident Heart Failure in Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Populations.

BACKGROUND: Ten-year risk equations for incident heart failure (HF) are available for the general population, but not for patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is highly prevalent in HF cohorts. This study aimed to develop and validate 10-year risk equations for incident HF in patients with known ASCVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ten-year risk equations for incident HF were developed using the United Kingdom Biobank cohort (recruitment 2006-2010) including participants with established ASCVD but free from HF at baseline. Model performance was validated using the Australian Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute Biobank cohort (recruitment 2000-2011) and compared with the performance of general population risk models. Incident HF occurred in 13.7% of the development cohort (n=31 446, median 63 years, 35% women, follow-up 10.7±2.7 years) and in 21.3% of the validation cohort (n=1659, median age 65 years, 25% women, follow-up 9.4±3.7 years). Predictors of HF included in the sex-specific models were age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (treated or untreated), glucose (treated or untreated), cholesterol, smoking status, QRS duration, kidney disease, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation. ASCVD-HF equations had good discrimination and calibration in development and validation cohorts, with superior performance to general population risk equations. CONCLUSIONS: ASCVD-specific 10-year risk equations for HF outperform general population risk models in individuals with established ASCVD. The ASCVD-HF equations can be calculated from readily available clinical data and could facilitate screening and preventative treatment decisions in this high-risk group.

Imputation of plasma lipid species to facilitate integration of lipidomic datasets.

Recent advancements in plasma lipidomic profiling methodology have significantly increased specificity and accuracy of lipid measurements. This evolution, driven by improved chromatographic and mass spectrometric resolution of newer platforms, has made it challenging to align datasets created at different times, or on different platforms. Here we present a framework for harmonising such plasma lipidomic datasets with different levels of granularity in their lipid measurements. Our method utilises elastic-net prediction models, constructed from high-resolution lipidomics reference datasets, to predict unmeasured lipid species in lower-resolution studies. The approach involves (1) constructing composite lipid measures in the reference dataset that map to less resolved lipids in the target dataset, (2) addressing discrepancies between aligned lipid species, (3) generating prediction models, (4) assessing their transferability into the targe dataset, and (5) evaluating their prediction accuracy. To demonstrate our approach, we used the AusDiab population-based cohort (747 lipid species) as the reference to impute unmeasured lipid species into the LIPID study (342 lipid species). Furthermore, we compared measured and imputed lipids in terms of parameter estimation and predictive performance, and validated imputations in an independent study. Our method for harmonising plasma lipidomic datasets will facilitate model validation and data integration efforts.

Influence of Repeated Plaque Visualization on Cardiovascular Risk Reduction after 3 years; a randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: Helping people to understand their cardiovascular (CV) risk can influence the choices they make for risk reduction, including medication adherence and lifestyle modification. This study sought whether repeated visualization of coronary artery calcium (CAC) images was effective in sustaining long-term risk control in primary prevention, independent of a risk reduction program. METHODS: Asymptomatic, statin-naïve participants, 40-70 years, with a family history of premature coronary artery disease and a CAC score from 1-400 were randomised to a nurse-led CV risk reduction program or standard care with bi-annual reviews. Only the intervention group (220 of 449 participants) visualised their CAC image (with repeat exposure in the first 3 months) and were initiated on statin therapy. The primary outcome was change in Framingham Risk Score (FRS) at 36 months, and the impact of CAC image recall on CV risk was assessed. RESULTS: The reduction in FRS (difference in differences (DID): -3.4% [95%CI: -4.4% to -2.4%], p=<0.001 and low-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol -1.2mmol/L [95%CI: -1.4 to -1.0], p=<0.001)) over 36 months was greater in the intervention than the control group. Within the intervention group, sustained recall of CAC images at 24 months was associated with lower systolic blood pressure (DID -4.3mmHg [95%CI: -7.7 to-0.9], p=0.01) and waist circumference (DID -2.0cm [95% CI: -3.9 to -0.1], p=0.03) at 36 months compared to unsustained recall. CONCLUSION: A nurse-led program, combining personalized patient visualization of CAC imaging with statin therapy, is beneficial for improving CV risk. Recalling the presentation of CAC images through repeated visual exposure may influence risk reduction.

This trial sought to determine whether visualization of coronary artery calcium (CAC) images influences behaviour change and cardiovascular risk reduction within a structured nurse-led program versus standard care. Intervention participants visualized their personalized CAC images within the first three months and commenced statin therapy. Control participants were blinded to their CAC images and were not provided statin therapy. Intervention participants had a greater absolute reduction in the Framingham Risk Score (Difference in differences: -3.4% [95% CI: -4.4% to -2.4%], p=<0.001) compared to controls. Those with sustained recollection of their CAC images within the intervention group also had greater reductions in systolic blood pressure and waist circumference.

Use of Imaging-guided Decongestion for Reducing Heart Failure Readmission and Death in High-risk Patients: A Multi-site Randomized Trial of a Nurse-led Strategy at the Point of Care.

BACKGROUND: Nurse-led disease management programs (DMPs) decrease readmission after acute decompensated heart failure (HF). We sought whether readmissions could be further reduced by lung ultrasound (LUS)-guided decongestion before discharge and during DMP. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 290 patients hospitalized with acute decompensated HF, 122 at high risk for readmission or mortality were randomized to receive usual care (UC) (n = 64) or UC plus intervention (DMP-Plus) (n = 58), comprising LUS-guided management before discharge and during at-home follow-up. Residual congestion was identified by ≥10 B-lines detected in 8 lung zones. The outcomes included a composite of readmission and/or mortality at 30 and 90 days, and 90-day HF readmission. Residual congestion was detected equally among the patient groups. The 30-day composite outcome occurred in 28% DMP-plus patients and 22% UC patients (odd ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-3.1; P = .5) and the 90-day HF readmission outcome occurred in 22% and 31%, respectively (odds ratio, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.28-1.43; P = .3). Residual congestion, identified at predischarge LUS examination in high-risk patients, was associated with early (<14-day) HF readmission (relative risk, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.06-1.32; P = .002) and multiple (≥2) readmissions over 90 days of follow-up (relative risk, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.16; P = .012), independent of demographics and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Readmission in patients with incomplete decongestion before discharge occurs within the first 2 weeks. However, our DMP-plus strategy did not improve the primary outcome.

Optimising the implementation of digital-supported interventions for the secondary prevention of heart disease: a systematic review using the RE-AIM planning and evaluation framework.

BACKGROUND: mHealth technologies are now widely utilised to support the delivery of secondary prevention programs in heart disease. Interventions with mHealth included have shown a similar efficacy and safety to conventional programs with improvements in access and adherence. However, questions remain regarding the successful wider implementation of digital-supported programs. By applying the Reach-Effectiveness-Adoption-Implementation-Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework to a systematic review and meta-analysis, this review aims to evaluate the extent to which these programs report on RE-AIM dimensions and associated indicators. METHODS: This review extends our previous systematic review and meta-analysis that investigated the effectiveness of digital-supported programs for patients with coronary artery disease. Citation searches were performed on the 27 studies of the systematic review to identify linked publications that reported data for RE-AIM dimensions. All included studies and, where relevant, any additional publications, were coded using an adapted RE-AIM extraction tool. Discrepant codes were discussed amongst reviewers to gain consensus. Data were analysed to assess reporting on indicators related to each of the RE-AIM dimensions, and average overall reporting rates for each dimension were calculated. RESULTS: Searches found an additional nine publications. Across 36 publications that were linked to the 27 studies, 24 (89%) of the studies were interventions solely delivered at home. The average reporting rates for RE-AIM dimensions were highest for effectiveness (75%) and reach (67%), followed by adoption (54%), implementation (36%) and maintenance (11%). Eleven (46%) studies did not describe relevant characteristics of their participants or of staff involved in the intervention; most studies did not describe unanticipated consequences of the intervention; the ongoing cost of intervention implementation and maintenance; information on intervention fidelity; long-term follow-up outcomes, or program adaptation in other settings. CONCLUSIONS: Through the application of the RE-AIM framework to a systematic review we found most studies failed to report on key indicators. Failing to report these indicators inhibits the ability to address the enablers and barriers required to achieve optimal intervention implementation in wider settings and populations. Future studies should consider alternative hybrid trial designs to enable reporting of implementation indicators to improve the translation of research evidence into routine practice, with special consideration given to the long-term sustainability of program effects as well as corresponding ongoing costs. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO-CRD42022343030.

Differences in predictors of incident heart failure according to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease status.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality, related to a broad range of sociodemographic, lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and comorbidity risk factors, which may differ according to the presence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We assessed the association between incident HF with baseline status across these domains, overall and separated according to ASCVD status. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 5758 participants from the Baker Biobank cohort without HF at baseline enrolled between January 2000 and December 2011. The primary endpoint was incident HF, defined as hospital admission or HF-related death, determined through linkage with state-wide administrative databases (median follow-up 12.2 years). Regression models were fitted adjusted for sociodemographic variables, alcohol intake, smoking status, measures of adiposity, cardiometabolic profile measures, and individual comorbidities. During 65 987 person-years (median age 59 years, 38% women), incident HF occurred among 784 participants (13.6%) overall. Rates of incident HF were higher among patients with ASCVD (624/1929, 32.4%) compared with those without ASCVD (160/3829, 4.2%). Incident HF was associated with age, socio-economic status, alcohol intake, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), with non-linear relationships observed for age, alcohol intake, BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, SBP, LDL-C, and HDL-C. Risk factors for incident HF were largely consistent regardless of ASCVD status, although diabetes status had a greater association with incident HF among patients without ASCVD. CONCLUSIONS: Incident HF is associated with a broad range of baseline sociodemographic, lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and comorbidity factors, which are mostly consistent regardless of ASCVD status. These data could be useful in efforts towards developing risk prediction models that can be used in patients with ASCVD.

Association of cardiovascular health and risk prediction algorithms with subclinical atherosclerosis identified by carotid ultrasound.

Background: The requirement for laboratory tests to assess conventional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk may be a barrier to the early detection and management of atherosclerosis in some population groups. A simpler risk assessment could facilitate detection of CVD. Objectives: The association of the Fuster-BEWAT Score (FBS), Framingham Risk Score (FRS), and Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) with the presence of carotid plaque was investigated, with the intention of developing a stepped screening process for the primary prevention of CVD. Methods: Asymptomatic participants with a family history of premature CVD had an absolute cardiovascular disease risk (ACVDR) score calculated using the FBS, FRS, and PCE risk equations. This risk classification was compared with the presence or absence of carotid plaque on ultrasound. Prediction of carotid plaque presence by risk scores and risk factors was assessed by logistic regression and area under the curve (AUC) for discrimination and diagnostic performance. A classification and regression-tree (CART) model was obtained for stratification of risk assessment. Results: Risk score calculation and ultrasound scanning were performed in 1031 participants, of whom 51 had carotid plaques. Participants with plaque and male sex showed higher risk (higher PCE and FRS and lower FBS, as higher scores of FBS indicate better cardiovascular health). Participants ≤50 years of age showed the FBS was a significant predictor; there was a reduced likelihood of plaque presence with a higher score (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.75, P < .01). Higher ACVDR (evidenced by higher PCE and FRS scores and lower FBS score) was associated with an increased likelihood of carotid plaque; however, the FBS and the addition of risk factors not included in the equation showed the highest AUC (AUC = 0.76, P < .001). CART modeling showed that participants with FBS between 6 and 9 would be recommended for further risk stratification using the PCE, whereupon a PCE score ≥5% conferred an increased risk and greater possibility for plaque. Validation of the model using a different cohort showed similar risk stratification for plaque presence according to level of risk by CART analysis. Conclusion: FBS was able to identify the presence of carotid plaque in asymptomatic individuals. Its use for initial risk delineation might improve the selection of patients for more specific and complex assessment, reducing cost and time.

Long term all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality among women who undergo fertility treatment.

OBJECTIVES: To compare age-adjusted all-cause and CVD mortality, relative to the general female population, for women registered for fertility treatment who received it and those who did not. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study; analysis of Monash IVF clinical registries data, 1975-2018, linked with National Death Index mortality data. PARTICIPANTS: All women who registered for fertility treatment at Monash IVF (Melbourne, Victoria), 1 January 1975 - 1 January 2014, followed until 31 December 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for all-cause and CVD mortality, for women who did or did not undergo fertility treatment; SMRs stratified by area-level socio-economic disadvantage (SEIFA Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage [IRSD]) and (for women who underwent treatment), by stimulated cycle number and mean oocytes/cycle categories. RESULTS: Of 44 149 women registered for fertility treatment, 33 520 underwent treatment (66.4%), 10 629 did not. After adjustment for age, both all-cause (SMR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.54-0.62) and CVD mortality (SMR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.32-0.53) were lower than for the general female population. All-cause mortality was similar for women registered with Monash IVF who did (SMR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.50-0.60) or did not undergo fertility treatment (SMR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.56-0.70). The SMR was lowest for both treated and untreated women in the fifth IRSD quintile (least disadvantage), but the difference was statistically significant only for untreated women. CVD mortality was lower for registered women who underwent fertility treatment (SMR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.19-0.43) than for those who did not (SMR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.42-0.81). CONCLUSION: Fertility treatment does not increase long term all-cause or CVD mortality risk. Lower mortality among women registered for fertility treatment probably reflected their lower socio-economic disadvantage.

New Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Techniques for Primary Prevention: JACC Review Topic of the Week.

Risk factor-based models fail to accurately estimate risk in select populations, in particular younger individuals. A sizable number of people are also classified as being at intermediate risk, for whom the optimal preventive strategy could be more precise. Several personalized risk prediction tools, including coronary artery calcium scoring, polygenic risk scores, and metabolic risk scores may be able to improve risk assessment, pending supportive outcome data from clinical trials. Other tools may well emerge in the near future. A multidimensional approach to risk prediction holds the promise of precise risk prediction. This could allow for targeted prevention minimizing unnecessary costs and risks while maximizing benefits. High-risk individuals could also be identified early in life, creating opportunities to arrest the development of nascent coronary atherosclerosis and prevent future clinical events.

Nurse-Provided Lung and Inferior Vena Cava Assessment in Patients With Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Residual congestion detected using handheld ultrasound may be associated with increased risk of readmission and death after hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). However, effective application necessitates routine use by nonexperts delivering clinical care. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to determine the ability of heart failure (HF) nurses to deliver a predischarge lung and inferior vena cava (IVC) assessment (LUICA) to predict 90-day outcomes. METHODS: In this multisite, prospective, observational study, HF nurses scanned 240 patients with ADHF (median age: 77 years; 56% men) using a 9-zone LUICA protocol. Obtained images were reviewed by independent nurses who were blinded to clinical characteristics and outcomes. Based on a B-line cut-off of 10, patients were dichotomized as congested (n = 115) or not congested (n = 125). RESULTS: Congested patients were more likely to have previous cardiac operations, long-standing HF (>6 months), and renal impairment. At 90 days, HF readmission or mortality occurred in 42 congested patients (37%) compared with 18 noncongested patients (14%). Pulmonary congestion increased at 30-day (OR: 3.86; 95% CI: 1.65-8.99; P < 0.01) and 90-day (OR: 3.42; 95% CI: 1.82-6.4; P < 0.01) HF readmission or mortality risk and 90-day mortality (OR: 5.18; 95% CI: 1.44-18.69; P < 0.01). Pulmonary congestion increased the 90-day odds of HF readmission and/or death by 3.3- to 4.2-fold (P < 0.01), independent of demographics, HF characteristics, comorbidities, and event risk score. Over 90 days, days alive out of hospital were fewer (78.3 ± 21.4 days vs 85.5 ± 12.4 days; P < 0.01) in congested patients. CONCLUSIONS: LUICA can be a powerful tool for detection of predischarge residual congestion. HF nurses can obtain images and provide diagnostic reports that are predictive of ADHF outcomes.

Association between arthritis and cardiovascular risk factors in community-based adults: an opportunity to target cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND: Undertreated risk factors are major contributors to the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Those with arthritis have an increased prevalence of CVD risk factors. CVD risk factors are often asymptomatic, which may be a barrier their treatment. Arthritis causes pain and immobility, and is a common reason for individuals to seek healthcare. Our aims were to (1) examine the relationship between arthritis and CVD risk factors in Australian adults, and (2) calculate the proportion of CVD risk factors that could be reduced if individuals with arthritis were targeted. METHODS: This cross-sectional study uses data from the 2017-18 Australian National Health Survey which included 13,776 participants, categorised into young (18-39 years), middle aged (40-64 years) and older (≥ 65 years) adults. Hypertension, height and weight were measured. Arthritis, dyslipidemia and diabetes were self-reported. The associations between arthritis and CVD risk factors were examined using logistic regression, and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of arthritis for each CVD risk factor was calculated. RESULTS: Arthritis was reported by 4.0% of young adults, 28.8% of middle-aged adults and 54.5% of older adults. Those with arthritis were at increased odds of obesity (2.07 fold in young, 1.75 fold in middle-aged and 1.89 fold in older adults), increased odds of diabetes (5.70 fold in young, 1.64 fold in middle-aged and 1.37 fold in older adults), increased odds of hypertension (2.72 fold in young, 1.78 fold in middle-aged and 1.48 fold in older adults) and an increased odds of dyslipidaemia (4.64 fold in young, 2.14 fold in middle-aged and 1.22 fold in older adults) compared to those without arthritis. This elevated chance remained significant even after adjusting for obesity, with the exception of diabetes in the older population. This elevated chance remained significant even after adjusting for obesity, with the exception of diabetes in the older population. The PAF of the presence of arthritis for having at least one CVD risk factor was 30.7% in middle-aged adults and 70.4% in older adults. CONCLUSION: Australian adults of all ages with arthritis are at increased odds of having CVD risk factors. For young and middle-aged adults, this increased odds remains significant even when adjusted for obesity. Presentation to healthcare practitioners with arthritis is an opportunity to screen for asymptomatic CVD risk factors with the potential of improving outcomes for both diseases. By adopting an approach of managing arthritis and CVD risk factors in parallel, rather than in silos, we could reduce the burden of CVD risk factors by 20-30%.

Use of coronary computed tomography or polygenic risk scores to prompt action to reduce coronary artery disease risk: the CAPAR-CAD trial.

BACKGROUND: The traditional primary prevention paradigm for coronary artery disease (CAD) centers on population-based algorithms to classify individual risk. However, this approach often misclassifies individuals and leaves many in the 'intermediate' category, for whom there is no clear preferred prevention strategy. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and polygenic risk scoring (PRS) are 2 contemporary tools for risk prediction to enhance the impact of effective management. AIMS: To determine how these CAC and PRS impact adherence to pharmacotherapy and lifestyle measures in asymptomatic individuals with subclinical atherosclerosis. METHODS: The CAPAR-CAD study is a multicenter, open, randomized controlled trial in Victoria, Australia. Participants are self-selected individuals aged 40 to 70 years with no prior history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), intermediate 10-year risk for CAD as determined by the pooled cohort equation (PCE), and CAC scores >0. All participants will have a health assessment, a full CT coronary angiogram (CTCA), and PRS calculation. They will then be randomized to receive their risk presented either as PCE and CAC, or PCE and PRS. The intervention includes e-Health coaching focused on risk factor management, health education and pharmacotherapy, and follow-up to augment adherence to a statin medication. The primary endpoint is a change in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) from baseline to 12 months. The secondary endpoint is between-group differences in behavior modification and adherence to statin pharmacotherapy. RESULTS: As of July 31, 2021, we have screened 1,903 individuals. We present the results of the 574 participants deemed eligible after baseline assessment.

Nurse co-ordinated health and lifestyle modification for reducing multiple cardio-metabolic risk factors in regional adults: outcomes from the MODERN randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Nurse-led health and lifestyle modification programmes can prevent cardio-metabolic diseases and be advantageous where health disparities exist. AIMS: To assess the effectiveness of a nurse-driven health and lifestyle modification programme in improving cardio-metabolic risk parameters for higher-risk regional residing adults. METHODS: We conducted an open, parallel-group randomized controlled trial in two sites. Participants were aged 40-70 years with no prior cardiovascular disease who had any three or more of; central obesity, elevated triglycerides, reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, elevated blood pressure (BP) and dysglycaemia. Intervention participants received individual face-to-face and telephone coaching for improving cardio-metabolic risk. Control group participants received standard care and general information about risk factor management. The primary endpoint was the percentage of participants who achieved the target risk factor thresholds or clinically significant minimum changes for any three or more cardio-metabolic risk factors during 24 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Participant average age was 57.6 (SD 7.6) years, 61% were female and 71% were employed. The primary endpoint was achieved by 76% intervention (97 of 127) and 71% usual care (92 of 129) participants [adjusted risk ratio (RR): 1.08; 95% CI 0.94, 1.24; P = 0.298]. Improved BP in the intervention group was more likely than in the control group (84% vs. 65%) (adj. RR: 1.28; 95% CI 1.11, 1.48; P = 0.001) but no other cardio-metabolic component. CONCLUSION: Nurse intervention to modify cardio-metabolic risk parameters had no enhanced effectiveness compared with usual care. However, participation was associated with improvements in cardio-metabolic abnormalities, with particular emphasis on BP. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRN12616000229471).

Association of traditional risk factors with carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque in asymptomatic individuals with a family history of premature cardiovascular disease.

The use of imaging to detect subclinical atherosclerosis helps to inform decision-making in people classified as having intermediate risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study sought to use carotid plaque as an alternative to carotid intima media thickness (cIMT). Carotid ultrasound for assessment of cIMT and plaque was obtained in 1031 people (53 years, 61% female) with a family history of atherosclerotic CVD. The association of baseline characteristics and standard atherosclerotic risk factors (RFs) were sought with abnormal cIMT and plaque. The strongest association of plaque was a history of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 1.87 (1.02-3.42), followed by age (OR 1.08 [95% CI 1.02-1.13]). For cIMT, the strongest association was smoking history (OR 1.57 [1.13-2.19]). The area under the receiver operator curve for the presence of plaque was 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.81, p < 0.001) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.61-0.70, p < 0.001) for cIMT elevation. Isolated elevation of cIMT (n = 178) was associated with increased total cholesterol, body mass index (BMI) and systolic blood pressure (SBP). Plaque only (n = 29) was associated with hypertension, male sex and older age. The presence of both markers abnormal (n = 22) was associated with a history of smoking. The absence of either abnormal cIMT or plaque (n = 773), was inversely associated with current or past smoking, SBP and BMI. Abnormalities in carotid vessels are present in a minority of intermediate risk patients with familial premature disease. The associations with RFs differ and are more closely associated with plaque.

Imaging-guided evaluation of subclinical atherosclerosis to enhance cardiovascular risk prediction in asymptomatic low-to-intermediate risk individuals: A systematic review.

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), plaque quantification and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring have been suggested to improve risk prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD), particularly for asymptomatic individuals classified as low-to-intermediate risk. We aimed to compare the predictive value of cIMT, carotid plaque identification, and CAC scoring for identifying sub-clinical atherosclerosis and assessing future risk of CVD in asymptomatic, low-to-intermediate risk individuals. We conducted a comprehensive search of Ovid (Embase and Medline), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Medline complete (EBSCO health). A total of 30 papers were selected and data were extracted. Comparisons were made according to the cIMT measurement (mean, maximum), carotid plaque evaluation (presence or area), and CAC scoring. CVD event rates, hazard ratios (HR), net reclassification index (NRI), and c-statistic of the markers were compared. There were 27 studies that reported cIMT, 24 reported carotid plaque, and 6 reported CAC scoring. Inclusion of CAC scores yielded the highest HR ranging from 1.45 (95% CI, 1.11-1.88, p = 0.006) to 3.95 (95% CI, 2.97-5.27, p < 0.001), followed by maximum cIMT (HR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06-1.11, p < 0.001 to 2.58; 95% CI, 1.83-3.62, p < 0.001) and carotid plaque presence (HR 1.21; 95% CI, 0.5-1.2, p = 0.39 to 2.43; 95% CI, 1.7-3.47, p < 0.001). The c-statistic enhanced predictive value by a minimum increase of 0.7. Finally, the NRI ranked higher with CAC (≥11.2%), followed by carotid plaque (≥2%) and cIMT (3%). CAC scoring was superior compared to carotid plaque and cIMT measurements in asymptomatic individuals classified as being at low-to-intermediate risk.

The Gut Microbiome of Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

Background Risk factors for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) include hypertension, age, sex, and obesity. Emerging evidence suggests that the gut microbiota independently contributes to each one of these risk factors, potentially mediated via gut microbial-derived metabolites such as short-chain fatty acids. In this study, we determined whether the gut microbiota were associated with HFpEF and its risk factors. Methods and Results We recruited 26 patients with HFpEF and 67 control participants from 2 independent communities. Patients with HFpEF were diagnosed by exercise right heart catheterization. We assessed the gut microbiome by bacterial 16S rRNA sequencing and food intake by the food frequency questionnaire. There was a significant difference in α-diversity (eg, number of microbes) and ß-diversity (eg, type and abundance of microbes) between both cohorts of controls and patients with HFpEF (P=0.001). We did not find an association between ß-diversity and specific demographic or hemodynamic parameters or risk factors for HFpEF. The Firmicutes to Bacteroidetes ratio, a commonly used marker of gut dysbiosis, was lower, but not significantly so (P=0.093), in the patients with HFpEF. Compared with controls, the gut microbiome of patients with HFpEF was depleted of bacteria that are short-chain fatty acid producers. Consistent with this, participants with HFpEF consumed less dietary fiber (17.6±7.7 versus 23.2±8.8 g/day; P=0.016). Conclusions We demonstrate key changes in the gut microbiota in patients with HFpEF, including the depletion of bacteria that generate metabolites known to be important for cardiovascular homeostasis. Further studies are required to validate the role of these gut microbiota and metabolites in the pathophysiology of HFpEF.

Improved sleep efficiency is associated with reduced cardio-metabolic risk: Findings from the MODERN trial.

Poor sleep increases cardio-metabolic risk, but limited information on the impact of sleep for the improvement of cardio-metabolic health exists. This analysis examined the impact of sleep on a health and lifestyle modification programme to reduce cardio-metabolic disease risk factors. Secondary analysis of the MODERN randomised controlled trial to reduce cardio-metabolic risk was undertaken at baseline and 24-month follow-up. Participants aged 40-70 years (n = 121) with three or more cardio-metabolic risk factors were randomised to a health and lifestyle modification intervention (n = 59) or usual care (n = 62), and underwent 7 day/night actigraphy to assess total sleep time, sleep efficiency (%), number of awakenings/night and physical activity levels. Blood pressure, blood lipid and glycaemic levels, anthropometric and diet measures were collected. The mean age was 59 ± 7 years and 37% were male. Baseline sleep measures were not different between groups. At the 24-month follow-up, both groups showed improvements in cardio-metabolic risk factors, albeit the change in blood pressure was greater in the intervention compared with the usual care group (systolic blood pressure: -11 versus -4 mmHg, p = .014). There were no differences between groups for diet, physical activity or sleep parameters. An increase in sleep efficiency was independently associated with lower systolic blood pressure (ß = -2.117, p = .002) and higher high-density lipoprotein levels (ß = 0.040, p = .033); an increase in total sleep time was associated with lower low-density lipoprotein levels (ß = -0.003, p = .038) at 24 months. Overall, improvement in sleep quality over time was beneficial to reduce blood pressure and lipid levels. These findings highlight sleep as a potential target to reduce cardio-metabolic risk.

Sleep quantity and quality and cardiometabolic risk factors in Indigenous Australians.

Poor sleep is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Indigenous Australians have 1.3 times higher risk of CVD compared to non-indigenous Australians. However, there are limited data describing sleep problems and cardiometabolic risk in this population. This study aimed to investigate sleep quantity and quality in indigenous Australians and assess its association with cardiometabolic risk. Two hundred and forty-five indigenous Australians aged > 18 years were recruited via convenience sampling from communities in the Northern Territory and Queensland. Sleep quantity and quality was assessed subjectively with questionnaires including the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. In a sub-population (n = 46), objective sleep assessment was performed over three nights of actigraphy. Cardiometabolic risk measures included glycated haemoglobin, lipids, anthropometric measurements and sitting blood pressure. Sleep duration measured subjectively and objectively averaged 7.5 ± 2.0 hr/night; however, over one-third of participants (self-report 35%; actigraphy 39%) obtained < 7 hr/night. Overall, more than a third of participants experienced poor-quality sleep, with 27% reporting severe daytime sleepiness (ESS score > 10) and a high number of objectively measured awakenings/night (6 ± 4). Short sleep duration (<6 hr/night) measured both subjectively and objectively was an independent predictor of diastolic (ß = 5.37, p = .038) and systolic blood pressure (ß = 14.30, p = .048). More objectively measured night-time awakenings were associated with increased glycated haemoglobin levels (ß = 0.07, p = .020) and greater sleep fragmentation was associated with lower high-density lipoprotein levels (ß = -0.01, p = .025). A large proportion of indigenous Australians experienced short sleep durations and had significant sleep disruption. Poor sleep quantity and quality may contribute to heightened cardiometabolic risk in this population.

An m-Health intervention to improve education, self-management, and outcomes in patients admitted for acute decompensated heart failure: barriers to effective implementation.

Aims: Effective and efficient education and patient engagement are fundamental to improve health outcomes in heart failure (HF). The use of artificial intelligence (AI) to enable more effective delivery of education is becoming more widespread for a range of chronic conditions. We sought to determine whether an avatar-based HF-app could improve outcomes by enhancing HF knowledge and improving patient quality of life and self-care behaviour. Methods and results: In a randomized controlled trial of patients admitted for acute decompensated HF (ADHF), patients at high risk (≥33%) for 30-day hospital readmission and/or death were randomized to usual care or training with the HF-app. From August 2019 up until December 2020, 200 patients admitted to the hospital for ADHF were enrolled in the Risk-HF study. Of the 72 at high-risk, 36 (25 men; median age 81.5 years; 9.5 years of education; 15 in NYHA Class III at discharge) were randomized into the intervention arm and were offered education involving an HF-app. Whilst 26 (72%) could not use the HF-app, younger patients [odds ratio (OR) 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-0.97; P < 0.01] and those with a higher education level (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.09-2.28; P = 0.03) were more likely to enrol. Of those enrolled, only 2 of 10 patients engaged and completed ≥70% of the program, and 6 of the remaining 8 who did not engage were readmitted. Conclusions: Although AI-based education is promising in chronic conditions, our study provides a note of caution about the barriers to enrolment in critically ill, post-acute, and elderly patients.

Rationale and design of a risk-guided strategy for reducing readmissions for acute decompensated heart failure: the Risk-HF study.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) readmission commonly arises owing to insufficient patient knowledge and failure of recognition of the early stages of recurrent fluid congestion. In previous work, we developed a score to predict short-term hospital readmission and showed that higher-risk patients benefit most from a disease management programme (DMP) that included enhancing knowledge and education by a nurse. We aim to evaluate the effectiveness of a novel, nurse-led HF DMP in selected patients at high risk of short-term hospital readmission, using ultrasound-guided diuretic management and artificial intelligence to enhance HF knowledge in an outpatient setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: Risk-HF is a prospective multisite randomized controlled trial that will allocate 404 patients hospitalized with acute decompensated HF, and ≥33% risk of readmission and/or death at 30 days, into risk-guided nurse intervention (DMP-Plus group) compared with usual care. Intervention elements include (i) fluid management with a handheld ultrasound (HHU) device at point of care; (ii) post-discharge follow-up; (iii) optimal programmed drug titration; (iv) better transition of care; (v) intensive self-care education via an avatar-based 'digital health coach'; and (vi) exercise guidance through the digital coach. Usual care involves standard post-discharge hospital care. The primary outcome is reduced death and/or hospital readmissions at 30 days post-discharge, and secondary outcomes include quality of life, fluid management efficacy, and feasibility and patient engagement. Assuming that our intervention will reduce readmissions and/or deaths by 50%, with a 1:1 ratio of intervention vs. usual care, we plan to randomize 404 patients to show a difference at a statistical power of 80%, using a two-sided alpha of 0.05. We anticipate this recruitment will be achieved by screening 2020 hospitalized HF patients for eligibility. An 8 week pilot programme of our digital health coach in 21 HF patients, age > 75 years, showed overall improvements in quality of life (13 of 21), self-care (12 of 21), and HF knowledge (13 of 21). A pilot of the use of HHU by nurses showed that it was feasible and accurate. CONCLUSIONS: The Risk-HF trial will evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-guided intervention to improve HF outcomes and will evaluate the efficacy of trained HF nurses delivering a fluid management protocol that is guided by lung ultrasound with an HHU at point of care.