Personalizing patient risk of a life-altering event: An application of machine learning to hemiarch surgery.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to assess a machine learning model's ability to predict the occurrence of life-altering events in hemiarch surgery and determine contributing patient characteristics and intraoperative factors. METHODS: In total, 602 patients who underwent hemiarch replacement at a high-volume aortic center from 2009 to 2022 were included. Patients were randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets with various eXtreme gradient boosting candidate models constructed to predict the risk of experiencing life-altering events, including stroke, mortality, or new renal replacement therapy requirement. A total of 64 input parameters from the index hospitalization were identified, including 24 demographic characteristics as well as 8 preoperative and 32 intraoperative variables. A SHapley Additive exPlanation beeswarm plot was generated to identify and interpret the impact of individual features on the predictions of the final model. RESULTS: A life-altering event was noted in 15% (90/602) of patients who underwent hemiarch replacement, including urgent/emergency cases and dissections. The final eXtreme Gradient Boosting model demonstrated a cross-validation accuracy of 88% on the testing set and was well calibrated as evidenced by a low Brier score of 0.12. The best performing model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76 and an area under the precision recall curve of 0.55. The SHapley Additive exPlanation beeswarm plot provided insights into key features that significantly influenced model prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning demonstrated superior accuracy in predicting hemiarch patients who would experience a life-altering event. This model may help to guide patients and clinicians in stratifying risk on an individual basis, which may in turn influence clinical decision-making.

Spinal cord protection for thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm repair: from bench to bedside.

This keynote lecture and corresponding presentation discuss the anatomy and pathophysiology surrounding spinal cord injury in aortic surgery. This article will discuss risk factors and mechanisms for spinal cord injury, including loss of direct and collateral spinal cord perfusion and ischemia-reperfusion injury. This review will examine these elements in both the laboratory and clinical setting, in addition to other neuroprotective strategies applied in clinical practice. Addressing spinal cord injury requires an integrated and considerate approach to simultaneously optimize spinal cord blood flow, promote collateralization and improve ischemic tolerance. Given the catastrophic clinical consequences for both the patient and their caregivers, continuing to investigate and examine spinal cord injury is of the utmost importance.

Frozen Elephant Trunk for Acute Type A Dissection: Is Risk from Procedure or Patient Characteristics?

BACKGROUND: The initial goal of acute Type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) repair remains to get the patient off the table safely. More extensive repair is being pushed at the index operation with the frozen elephant trunk (FET) operation, but outcomes are suggested to be worse. However, we hypothesize that the risk associated with the FET in ATAAD is from the patient presenting factors rather than the operation itself. METHODS: A retrospective review of a single institution prospective database from 2015 to 2021 was performed. Two cohorts were created based on the indication for FET: evidence of radiographic malperfusion (n = 44) or clinical malperfusion (n = 31). Data were analyzed for preoperative characteristics, intraoperative characteristics, and postoperative outcomes. Statistical univariate analysis was performed with chi-square analysis and t-tests with significance determined at an alpha level of 0.05. RESULTS: Preoperative characteristics were similar in each group, independent of malperfusion markers. The intraoperative characteristics were similar, except the clinical malperfusion group had more packed red blood cells and cryoprecipitate given. The clinical malperfusion group had longer intensive care unit length of stay (p < 0.001), more postoperative strokes (p < 0.001), more reoperations (p <0.0001), and higher mortality rate (p = 0.0003). CONCLUSION: These data suggest that clinical malperfusion increases the risk of major complications and death. However, full arch replacement with FET in the absence of clinical malperfusion does not appear to add risk to the operation for ATAAD. Patients with increased risk of distal degeneration should be considered for more aggressive replacement to avoid subsequent arch replacement.

Conditional Survival in Lung Transplantation: An Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Database Analysis.

Lung transplantation survival estimates are traditionally reported as fixed 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality rates. Alternatively, this study aims to demonstrate how conditional survival models can provide useful prognostic information tailored to the time a recipient has already survived from the date of transplantation. Recipient data was obtained from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database. Data from 24,820 adult recipients over age 18 who received a lung transplant between 2002 and 2017 were included in the study. Five-year observed conditional survival estimates were calculated by recipient age, sex, race, transplant indication, transplant type ( i.e. , single or double), and renal function at the time of transplantation. Significant variability exists in conditional survival following lung transplantation. Each specific recipient characteristic significantly impacted conditional survival during at least one time point in the first 5 years. Younger age and double lung transplantation were the two most positive predictors of improved conditional survival consistently throughout the 5-year study period. Conditional survival in lung transplantation recipients changes over time and across recipient characteristics. Hazards of mortality are not fixed and need to be dynamically evaluated as a function of time. Conditional survival calculations can provide more accurate prognostic predictions than unconditional survival estimates.

Comparison Study of Iliac Branch Endoprosthesis when Used on and off Label.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to compare how instructions for use (IFU) affected perioperative and intermediate term outcomes for common iliac artery aneurysms (CIAA) treated with the Gore Excluder iliac branch endoprosthesis (IBE). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed of all patients treated at two affiliated academic centers from September 2016 to May 2020. Outcomes were compared between IFU and nonIFU IBE cases. Criteria for nonIFU included: (1) use with a nonGore aortic endoprosthesis (n = 10), (2) isolated IBE (n = 3), and (3) requiring nondedicated covered stents for additional extension into a more suitable landing zone in the ipsilateral internal iliac artery or one of its branches (n = 11). Perioperative and intermediate term data were collected for both groups. The primary end points were free from the major adverse event (MAE) at 30 days and primary effectiveness at 1 year. RESULTS: A total of 51 CIAA (39 patients) were treated with an IBE. Overall, 15 patients were treated under IFU and 24 under nonIFU. The IFU group mean age was older (72 vs. 67 years, P = 0.03), and males (97%) were primarily treated. Comorbidities were similar except nonIFU had more patients with previous endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair on presentation (0 vs. 4 cases, P = 0.04). Procedure (178 vs. 264 min, P = 0.02) and fluoroscopy (52 vs. 74 min, P = 0.04) times were longer in the nonIFU group. Technical success was 100% for both groups, and there was no difference in device related reintervention at 30 days (0 vs. 1, P = 0.44). There was no MAE in either group at 30 days. Intervention for any endoleak was similar between the groups (2 vs. 3, P = 0.94). Percent CIAA sac regression was similar between the groups (19% vs. 18%, P = 0.21). There was no difference for primary effectiveness at 1 year (93% vs. 92%, P = 0.85). There was one death per group at one year not related to an aortic or iliac cause. CONCLUSIONS: In properly selected patients with complex anatomy, IBE can be used with nondedicated aortic and internal iliac components with good early term outcomes.

Survival following lung transplantation: A population-based nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Lung transplantation is the mainstay of treatment for patients with end-stage respiratory failure. This study sought to evaluate survival following transplantation compared to the general population and quantify standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) using a nested case-control study design. METHODS: Control subjects were nonhospitalized inhabitants of the United States identified through the National Longitudinal Mortality Study. Case subjects were adults who underwent lung transplantation between 1990 and 2007 and identified through the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Propensity-matching (5:1, nearest neighbor, caliper = 0.1) was utilized to identify suitable control subjects based on age, sex, race, and location of residency. The primary study endpoint was 10-year survival. RESULTS: About 14,977 lung transplant recipients were matched to 74,885 nonhospitalized US residents. The 10-year survival rate of lung transplant recipients was 28% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 27%-29%). The population expected mortality rate was 19 deaths/100 person-years while the observed ratio was 104 deaths/100 person-years (SMR = 5.39, 95% CI = 5.35-5.43). The largest discrepancies between observed and expected mortality rates were in females (SMR = 5.97), Hispanic (SMR = 10.70), and single lung recipients (SMR = 5.92). SMRs declined over time (1990-1995 = 5.79, 1996-2000 = 5.64, and 2001-2007 = 5.10). Standardized mortality peaks in the first year after transplant and decreases steadily over time. CONCLUSIONS: Lung transplant recipients experience a fivefold higher SMR compared to the nonhospitalized population. Long-term mortality rates have experienced consistent decline over time.

Appraisal of Donation After Circulatory Death: How Far Could We Expand the Heart Donor Pool?

BACKGROUND: the incidence of organ donation after circulatory death (DCD) is increasing; however, heart use has lagged behind other solid organs. Ex vivo perfusion devices are under United States Food and Drug Administration review for use in DCD heart recovery. This study sought to measure the potential increase in the donor pool if DCD heart donation becomes widely adopted. METHODS: DCD donor data were obtained from Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database. Selection criteria included donor age 18 to 49 years, donors meeting Maastricht III criteria, warm ischemia time ≤30 minutes, and donation between 2015 and 2020. Exclusion criteria were coronary disease, prior myocardial infarction, ejection fraction <0.50, significant valve disease, bacteremia, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure >15 mm Hg, and history of HIV/hepatitis C virus infections. RESULTS: There were 12 813 DCD donors during this period, of which 3528 met study criteria, and 70 hearts (2%) were transplanted. The use of DCD hearts would represent an additional 48 heart transplants per month, which corresponds to a 21% (3458 of 16 521) increase across the country. Median warm ischemia was 23 minutes, with no difference between hearts that were or were not transplanted (23 vs 22.5 minutes, P = .97). The frequency with which other organs were successfully transplanted was kidney, 92%; liver, 44%; lung, 7%; intestine, 0%; and pancreas, 2%. CONCLUSIONS: Wide adoption of DCD heart transplantation could yield a substantial increase in the donor pool size, with approximately 580 additional organs being available each year across the United States. This would represent the largest increase in the donor pool in the modern era of heart transplantation.

Measuring the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on solid organ transplantation.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has uniquely affected the United States. We hypothesize that transplantation would be uniquely affected. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, adult transplantation data were examined as time series data. Autoregressive-integrated-moving-average models of transplantation rates were developed using data from 1990 to 2019 to forecast the 2020 expected rates in a theoretical scenario if the pandemic did not occur to generate observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios. RESULTS: 32,594 transplants were expected in 2020, and only 30,566 occurred (O/E 0.94, CI 0.88-0.99). 58,152 waitlist registrations were expected and 50,241 occurred (O/E 0.86, CI 0.80-0.94). O/E ratios of transplants were kidney 0.92 (0.86-0.98), liver 0.96 (0.89-1.04), heart 1.05 (0.91-1.23), and lung 0.92 (0.82-1.04). O/E ratios of registrations were kidney 0.84 (0.77-0.93), liver 0.95 (0.86-1.06), heart 0.99 (0.85-1.18), and lung 0.80 (0.70-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a significant deficit in transplantation. The impact was strongest in kidney transplantation and waitlist registration.

Decision Support Needs for Patients with Severe Symptomatic Aortic Stenosis.

Social workers in healthcare settings often support patient decision-making processes for complex medical decisions. The objective of this study was to examine decision support needs for patients considering aortic valve replacement (AVR) for aortic stenosis. Seventeen qualitative interviews were conducted to explore treatment decision experiences of patients who accepted AVR. Analysis was conducted using a mixed inductive-deductive approach. Fear was a prevalent response for most participants in the face of AVR. Two general paths of decision making emerged: an "active" information seeking approach, or a "passive" simplicity seeking approach. Patients with unique clinical presentations felt alienated by the decision-making process. Acknowledging fear while understanding different decision-making styles provide opportunities for social workers and other members of multidisciplinary teams to support complex patient decisions.

Device Closure of Patent Foramen Ovale for Cryptogenic Stroke: Patient Selection and Outcomes According to New Randomized Trials.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review summarizes the most recent randomized clinical trials that studied the role of device-mediated patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure in patients after an ischemic stroke presumed to have been caused by a paradoxical embolism. RECENT FINDINGS: Three major randomized trials published in 2017 studied the strategy of using PFO closure for secondary prevention in patients between the ages of 18 and 60 who presented with an index stroke having characteristics of an embolic mechanism. All patients had a PFO that potentially could have enabled paradoxical embolism and other causes of stroke were excluded by a thorough neurologic and cardiac evaluation. Patients were randomized to PFO closure versus medical therapy alone using a variety of guideline-recommended medications. After multiple years of follow-up, all three trials showed superiority in the device arm versus the medical arm with a relative risk reduction of recurrent stroke from 46 to 100% and an absolute recurrent stroke reduction from 0.49 to 1.32% per year. Complications related to the procedure and the device were infrequent and mostly transient. These results have transformed the care of these patients, lead to FDA approval of two PFO closure devices, and started the process of updating guidelines. Patient selection is critically important since the presence of a PFO may be incidental. Therefore, both a neurologist and a cardiologist, who can also perform this procedure safely and effectively, should complete the initial evaluation and discuss their findings and recommendations with the patient as part of a shared decision-making process. There are remaining questions regarding how these trial results relate to older patients, patients with overt venothrombotic disease, and those with thrombophilia.

Test-retest reliability of the 40 Hz EEG auditory steady-state response.

Auditory evoked steady-state responses are increasingly being used as a marker of brain function and dysfunction in various neuropsychiatric disorders, but research investigating the test-retest reliability of this response is lacking. The purpose of this study was to assess the consistency of the auditory steady-state response (ASSR) across sessions. Furthermore, the current study aimed to investigate how the reliability of the ASSR is impacted by stimulus parameters and analysis method employed. The consistency of this response across two sessions spaced approximately 1 week apart was measured in nineteen healthy adults using electroencephalography (EEG). The ASSR was entrained by both 40 Hz amplitude-modulated white noise and click train stimuli. Correlations between sessions were assessed with two separate analytical techniques: a) channel-level analysis across the whole-head array and b) signal-space projection from auditory dipoles. Overall, the ASSR was significantly correlated between sessions 1 and 2 (p<0.05, multiple comparison corrected), suggesting adequate test-retest reliability of this response. The current study also suggests that measures of inter-trial phase coherence may be more reliable between sessions than measures of evoked power. Results were similar between the two analysis methods, but reliability varied depending on the presented stimulus, with click train stimuli producing more consistent responses than white noise stimuli.