Tuberculosis patients face high treatment support costs in Colombia, 2021.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the baseline to measure one of the three indicators of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB strategy (2015-2035), measure the costs incurred by patients affected by tuberculosis (TB) during a treatment episode and estimate the proportion of households facing catastrophic costs (CC) and associated risk factors, in Colombia, 2021. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A nationally representative cross-sectional survey was conducted among participants on TB treatment in Colombia, using telephone interviews due to the exceptional context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey collected household costs (direct [medical and non-medical out-of-pocket expenses] and indirect) over an episode of TB, loss of time, coping measures, self-reported income, and asset ownership. Total costs were expressed as a proportion of annual household income and analyzed for risk factors of CC (defined as costs above 20% annual household income). RESULTS: The proportion of TB-affected households incurring in costs above 20% annual household income (CC) was 51.7% (95%CI: 45.4-58.0) overall, 51.3% (95%CI: 44.9-57.7) among patients with drug-sensitive (DS) TB, and 65.0% (95%CI: 48.0-82.0) among drug-resistant (DR). The average patient cost of a TB case in Colombia was $1,218 (95%CI 1,106-1,330) including $860.9 (95%CI 776.1-945.7) for non-medical costs, $339 (95%CI 257-421) for the indirect costs, and $18.1 (95%CI 11.9-24.4) for the medical costs. The factors that influenced the probability of facing CC were income quintile, job loss, DR-TB patient, and TB type. CONCLUSION: Main cost drivers for CC were non-medical out-of-pocket expenses and income loss (indirect costs). Current social protection programs ought to be expanded to mitigate the proportion of TB-affected households facing CC in Colombia, especially those with lower income levels.

Análisis de interacciones de los actores de la red de conocimiento en salud ambiental del Observatorio Nacional de Salud de Colombia

Introducción: Las interrelaciones positivas y negativas entre el hombre y el medioambiente impactan en la salud general de la población, por esto, la gestión del conocimiento y la transformación social, orientadas a la prevención de la exposición a factores de riesgo ambiental y a la creación de ambientes propicios, deben realizarse a través de acciones multidisciplinares intersectoriales, como el trabajo colaborativo de redes del conocimiento. Objetivo: Describir las interacciones entre los actores de la Red de Conocimiento de Salud Ambiental del Observatorio Nacional de Salud de Colombia (ONS), con el fin de promover, mejorar y fortalecer la colaboración, intercambio de información y planificación conjunta de acciones. Metodología: Estudio descriptivo transversal de análisis de redes sociales mediante herramientas de minería de texto del lenguaje de programación R. Se analizaron las categorías de agua y saneamiento, clima, calidad del aire, radiaciones electromagnéticas e intoxicaciones químicas de un corpus documental de 99 textos de los actores de la red general de conocimiento en salud pública del ONS. Se calcularon medidas de centralidad y prestigio y se graficaron redes dirigidas multicapa con Power BI. Resultados: Los actores con mayor centralidad en la red fueron: Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social, Superintendencia de Salud, Profamilia, universidades de Antioquia y La Salle, ONS, Observatorio de Salud Ambiental de Bogotá, Organización Panamericana de la Salud y Organización Mundial de la Salud. Las cinco categorías analizadas presentaron bajas centralidades de grado, y las categorías de agua y clima mostraron mayor participación de los actores (más nodos e interacciones). Conclusiones: El análisis de redes sociales permitió identificar temas relevantes de salud ambiental entre los actores de la red del ONS, además de actores clave para desarrollar espacios de interacción y gestión del conocimiento. Acorde con las limitaciones del análisis, se sugiere la inclusión de aproximaciones bibliométricas para la actualización de las interacciones de la red.

Introduction: Positive and negative interactions between the human beings and the environment have an impact on the general health of the population. Therefore, it is necessary to use knowledge management and social transformation, in order to limit exposure to environmental risk factors by creating a favorable environment for healthcare. This should be carried out through multidisciplinary and intersectorial actions, such as the collaborative work of knowledge networks. Objective: To describe the interactions between the actors within the Environmental Health Knowledge Network Colombia's National Observatory of Health (ONS acronym in Spanish), in order to promote, improve and strengthen collaboration, information exchange and planning of collaborative actions. Methodology: Cross-sectional descriptive study to analyze social interactions through text mining tools by R, programmer language. Categories analyzed: Water and sanitation, climate, air quality, electromagnetic radiation and chemical poisoning. Data source: a documentary corpus of 99 texts done by actors of Environmental Health Knowledge Network of Colombia's ONS. We calculated centrality and prestige measures. We used Power BI in order to plot multi-layered directed networks. Results: Actors with greatest centrality in the network: Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Health Superintendency, Profamilia, Antioquia and La Salle universities, National Health Observatory, Bogota's Observatory of Environmental Health, the Pan American Health Organization and the World Health Organization. The five categories analyzed provides a low centrality degree, and water and climate categories presented greater participation by actors (more nodes and links). Conclusions: Social interactions analysis provides the identification of relevant environmental health issues in Colombia and key actors in order to develop interaction spaces for knowledge management. The analysis had limitations that suggest the inclusion of bibliometric approaches for updating the interactions within the network.

Indirect impact of PCV10 children vaccination on the serotype distribution and antimicrobial resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae causing invasive disease in adults over 50 in Colombia, 2005-2019: Observational analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into childhood vaccination programmes has reduced the prevalence of vaccine serotypes (VTs) that cause invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children. In the elderly population, an impact has also been seen through indirect protection (herd effect). The aim of this study was to estimate the changes in serotype distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility of Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates recovered from adult IPD and to evaluate the indirect effect of immunization with PCV10 based on laboratory records by analyzing the period from 2005 to 2019 for six years before and eight years after the universal PCV10 administration to Colombian children. METHODS: A total of 2204 S. pneumoniae isolates from adults (≥50 years) with IPD were analyzed. The analysis examined the percentage changes in proportions (prevalence) and percentage variations in population rates (annual reported rates - ARR) of VTs between the pre-PCV10 (2005-2009) and post-PCV10 (2015-2019) periods. RESULTS: The findings were (1) evidence of a significant percentage decrease of pneumococcal VT10 causing IPD in adults (50% pre-PCV10 and 16% post-PCV10); (2) significant increase of serotype 19A (from 1.6% to 14.8%) and less important increase of serotype 3 (from 10.5% to 14.5%) and non-vaccine serotypes (NVT) (from 21.4% to 38.4%) non-significant; and (3) meningitis and non-meningitis multidrug resistant isolates associated with serotype 19A. An improvement in the surveillance system is associated with the immunization of children, as noted by the increased ARRs across the analysis period. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show the indirect impact of PCV10 vaccination in children on the VT10 distribution and antimicrobial resistance of S. pneumoniae causing IPD in Colombian adults over 50 when comparing the pre-PCV10 (2005-2009) and post-PCV10 (2015-2019) periods.

Deliberación pública en el marco de la respuesta a la pandemia por COVID-19: un análisis de la respuesta temprana en Colombia / Public deliberation in the context of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of the early response in Colombia

RESUMO La deliberación es deseable en el campo de la salud pública, incluso en escenarios de emergencia sanitaria, donde se deben tomar decisiones de manera rápida y con un alto grado de incertidumbre. Se realizó un análisis del proceso de toma de decisiones en los primeros meses de la llegada de la pandemia de COVID-19 a Colombia y en los meses alrededor del inicio de la vacunación, a la luz del concepto de deliberación pública y con énfasis en las decisiones del Gobierno Nacional relacionadas con el sector salud. Se llevó a cabo un estudio cualitativo de análisis de contenido, usando como fuente documentos de las páginas web de la Presidencia de la República de Colombia, del Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social y del Congreso de la República y páginas de organizaciones sociales, particularmente representativas de población vulnerable y organizaciones no gubernamentales. Los espacios deliberativos para la toma de decisiones relacionadas con el sector salud durante la pandemia en Colombia se limitaron a escenarios formales donde se privilegió la participación de expertos biomédicos y técnicos de entidades gubernamentales del nivel central. Es necesario incluir en los futuros planes de preparación para este tipo de emergencia escenarios con capacidad de deliberación pública.

ABSTRACT Deliberation is desirable in the public health field, even in emergency scenarios, where decisions must be made quickly and with a high uncertainty degree. An analysis of the decision-making process in the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia and in the months around the start of vaccination was carried out, considering the concept of public deliberation and with emphasis on the decisions of the National Government related to the health sector. A qualitative study of content analysis was carried out, using as information source the documents from the web pages of the Presidency of the Republic of Colombia, the Ministry of Health, and the Congress of the Republic and pages of social organizations, particularly representative of the vulnerable population and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The deliberative spaces for decision-making related to the health sector during the pandemic in Colombia were limited to formal settings where the participation of biomedical experts and technicians from central government entities was privileged. It is necessary to include scenarios with a greater capacity for public deliberation in future preparedness plans for this type of emergency.

Maternal mortality in Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic: time series and social inequities.

OBJECTIVE: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic goes beyond morbidity and mortality from that disease. Increases in maternal mortality have also been described but have not been extensively studied to date. This study aimed to examine changes in maternal mortality and identify correlates and predictors of excess maternal mortality in Colombia during the pandemic. SETTING: Analysis of data from the national epidemiological surveillance databases of Colombia (Sivigila). PARTICIPANTS: Deaths among 6342 Colombian pregnant women who experienced complications associated with pregnancy, childbirth or the perperium during 2008-2020 were included in this study. For inequalities analysis, a subsample of 1055 women from this group who died in 2019 or 2020 years were analysed. METHODS: We collected data from the national surveillance system (Sivigila) on maternal mortality. Analysis was carried out in two stages, starting with a time series modelling using the Box-Jenkins approach. Data from Sivigila for 2008-2019 were used to establish a baseline of expected mortality levels. Both simple and complex inequality metrics, with the maternal mortality ratios (MMRs), were then calculated using the Multidimensional Poverty Index as a socioeconomic proxy. RESULTS: Maternal deaths in 2020 were 12.6% (95% CI -21.4% to 95.7%) higher than expected. These excess deaths were statistically significant in elevation for the months of July (97.4%, 95% CI 35.1% to 250.0%) and August (87.8%, 95% CI 30.5% to 220.8%). The MMR was nearly three times higher in the poorest municipalities compared with the most affluent communities in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic had considerable impact on maternal health, not only by leading to increased deaths, but also by increasing social health inequity. Barriers to access and usage of essential health services are a challenge to achieving health-related Sustainable Development Goals.

Educational inequalities in heart failure mortality and the cycles of the internal armed conflict in Colombia: An observational panel study of ecological data, 1999-2017.

Heart failure (HF) is a significant clinical problem and an important public health issue due to the morbidity and mortality that it causes, especially in a population that is aging and affected by social stressors such as armed conflict. We aim to describe the inequalities and trends of HF mortality by educational level in Colombia between 1999 and 2017 compared with the cycles of the internal armed conflict during the same period. An observational study of ecological data panels, with aggregates at the national level, was conducted. Information from death certificates with HF as the basic cause of death (COD) was used. Variables of the year of death, sex, age, department of residence, and educational level were considered. Mortality rates adjusted for age were calculated. A joinpoint regression was used to model the trend of rates by educational level. We found that both men and women with primary education had the highest adjusted mortality rates: among men, RR_primary = 19.06 deaths/100,000 inhabitants, SE = 0.13 vs. RR_tertiary = 4.85, SE = 0.17, and similar differences among women. Mortality rates tended to decrease at all educational levels, with a greater reduction in people with higher educational levels. In both sexes, the behavior of the relative index of inequality showed significant inequality, albeit with a strong reduction during the last decade. Mortality due to HF in Colombia shows inequalities by educational level. In the prevention of HF, education should be considered a structural social determinant. In addition, we analyzed the potential role of the Colombian long-term armed conflict in the observed trends. We highlighted the role of the health sector, together with other sectors (education, work, and housing), in developing intersectoral public policies that contribute to the reduction of cardiovascular mortality disparities.

Analysis of interactions of actors of the knowledge network on malaria in Colombia / Análisis de interacciones de actores de la red de gestión del conocimiento en malaria de Colombia

Introduction: Malaria is a disease with a high impact on Colombian population, which must be approached from the point of view of teamwork of institutions for knowledge exchange. Objective: To analyze the interactions of the Red de Gestión del Conocimiento, Investigación e Innovación en Malaria de Colombia. Materials and methods: An analysis of social networks was applied that allowed identifying the proximity between actors and the degree of knowledge between them. Indicators of density, diameter, average distance, and degree of centrality were observed. The documentary corpus for the study consisted of 193 technical documents published between 2016 and 2021, which were analyzed using text mining using the R programming language. The network was categorized based on five variables: comprehensive patient care, diagnosis, epidemiology and health information analysis systems, public policy and promotion and prevention. Results: The analysis of interactions indicated that the network was made up by 99 actors. The main interest in knowledge production was on epidemiology and health information analysis systems (98 % of the actors), followed by the integral patient care (80 % of the actors). On the contrary, the least approached category was malaria promotion and prevention practices (54 % of the actors). Conclusions: In general, this study contributes to the strengthening of key strategies in the dissemination of knowledge about malaria in Colombia.

Introducción. La malaria, o paludismo, es una enfermedad de gran impacto en la población colombiana, que debe ser abordada desde el punto de vista del trabajo en equipo de instituciones para el intercambio de conocimiento. Objetivo. Analizar las interacciones de la Red de Gestión del Conocimiento, Investigación e Innovación en Malaria de Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un análisis de redes sociales que permitió identificar la proximidad entre los actores y el grado de conocimiento entre ellos; se observaron indicadores de densidad, diámetro, distancia media y centralidad de grado. El corpus documental para el estudio estuvo constituido por 193 documentos técnicos publicados entre el 2016 y el 2021, que fueron analizados empleando técnicas de procesamiento de texto mediante el lenguaje de programación R. La categorización de la red se realizó a partir de cinco variables: atención integral a pacientes, diagnóstico, epidemiología y sistemas de análisis de información en salud, política pública, y promoción y prevención. Resultados. El análisis de las interacciones indicó que la red la conformaban 99 actores, de los cuales 97 (98 %), mostraron más interés en la producción de conocimientos en epidemiología y sistemas de análisis de información en salud, seguido de la categoría de atención integral a pacientes con 79 (80 %). El 54 % de los actores llevó a cabo estudios de promoción y prevención, siendo esta la categoría de menor abordaje. Conclusiones. Este estudio contribuye al fortalecimiento de estrategias clave en la divulgación del conocimiento sobre la malaria en Colombia.

Análisis de las interacciones entre los actores de la Red de Gestión del Conocimiento, Investigación e Innovación en Malaria de Colombia / Analysis of interactions between actors of the Red de Gestión del Conocimiento e Innovación en Malaria de Colombia

Introducción. La malaria, o paludismo, es una enfermedad de gran impacto en la población colombiana, que debe ser abordada desde el punto de vista del trabajo en equipo de instituciones para el intercambio de conocimiento. Objetivo. Analizar las interacciones de la Red de Gestión del Conocimiento, Investigación e Innovación en Malaria de Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un análisis de redes sociales que permitió identificar la proximidad entre los actores y el grado de conocimiento entre ellos; se observaron indicadores de densidad, diámetro, distancia media y centralidad de grado. El corpus documental para el estudio estuvo constituido por 193 documentos técnicos publicados entre el 2016 y el 2021, que fueron analizados empleando técnicas de procesamiento de texto mediante el lenguaje de programación R. La categorización de la red se realizó a partir de cinco variables: atención integral a pacientes, diagnóstico, epidemiología y sistemas de análisis de información en salud, política pública, y promoción y prevención. Resultados. El análisis de las interacciones indicó que la red la conformaban 99 actores, de los cuales 97 (98 %), mostraron más interés en la producción de conocimientos en epidemiología y sistemas de análisis de información en salud, seguido de la categoría de atención integral a pacientes con 79 (80 %). El 54 % de los actores llevó a cabo estudios de promoción y prevención, siendo esta la categoría de menor abordaje. Conclusiones. Este estudio contribuye al fortalecimiento de estrategias clave en la divulgación del conocimiento sobre la malaria en Colombia.

Introduction: Malaria is a disease with a high impact on Colombian population, which must be approached from the point of view of teamwork of institutions for knowledge exchange. Objective: To analyze the interactions of the Red de Gestión del Conocimiento, Investigación e Innovación en Malaria de Colombia. Materials and methods: An analysis of social networks was applied that allowed identifying the proximity between actors and the degree of knowledge between them. Indicators of density, diameter, average distance, and degree of centrality were observed. The documentary corpus for the study consisted of 193 technical documents published between 2016 and 2021, which were analyzed using text mining using the R programming language. The network was categorized based on five variables: comprehensive patient care, diagnosis, epidemiology and health information analysis systems, public policy and promotion and prevention. Results: The analysis of interactions indicated that the network was made up by 99 actors. The main interest in knowledge production was on epidemiology and health information analysis systems (98 % of the actors), followed by the integral patient care (80 % of the actors). On the contrary, the least approached category was malaria promotion and prevention practices (54 % of the actors). Conclusions: In general, this study contributes to the strengthening of key strategies in the dissemination of knowledge about malaria in Colombia.

How Expensive Are Hospitalizations by COVID-19? Evidence From Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the direct medical costs due to hospitalizations by COVID-19 in Colombia and to identify their cost drivers in Colombia. METHODS: This is a retrospective cost-of-illness study of COVID-19 in Colombia. We estimated direct medical costs using data from patients insured to a Benefit Plan Administrator Company, between March 15, 2020 and May 29, 2020. Absolute and relative frequencies, averages, medians, and interquartile ranges (IQRs) were used to characterize the population and estimate the costs of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We stratified the cost analysis by sex, age groups, comorbidities, and type of hospitalization (general ward and intensive care unit [ICU]). Cost drivers were calculated from a generalized linear model. RESULTS: We studied 113 confirmed patients, 51.3% men. On average, the hospital length of stay was 7.3 (± 6.2) days. A person hospitalized with COVID-19 reported median costs of $1688 (IQR 788-2523). In women, this cost was $1328 (IQR 463-2098); in men, this was 1.4 times greater. The median cost for ICU was $4118 (IQR 2069-5455), 3 times higher than those hospitalized only in the general ward. Admission to the ICU, having 1 comorbidity, length of stay, high blood pressure, having 5 comorbidities, and being treated in the city of Cartagena were statistically significant with direct medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides an idea of the magnitude of costs needed to hospitalize a COVID-19 case in Colombia. Other studies in Colombia have assessed the costs of hospitalization for infectious diseases such as influenza, costs significantly lower than those described here.

Economic costs of severe seasonal influenza in Colombia, 2017-2019: A multi-center analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic burden of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) in lab-confirmed influenza patients from a low-income country setting such as Colombia. METHODS: A bottom-up costing analysis, from both third payer and social perspectives, was conducted. Direct costs of care were based on the review of 227 clinical records of lab-confirmed influenza inpatients in six facilities from three main Colombian cities. Resources were categorized as: length of stay (LOS), diagnostic and laboratory tests, medications, consultation, procedures, and supplies. A survey was designed to estimate out-of-pocket expenses (OOPE) and indirect costs covered by patients and their families. Cost per patient was estimated with the frequency of use and prices of activities, calculating median and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) with bootstrapping. Total costs are expressed as the sum of direct medical costs, OOPE and indirect costs in 2018 US dollars. RESULTS: The media direct medical cost per SARI lab-confirmed influenza patient was US$ 700 (95% CI US$ 552-809). Diagnostic and laboratory tests correspond to the highest cost per patient (37%). Median OOPE and indirect costs per patient was US$ 147 (95% CI US$ 94-202), with the highest costs for caregiver expenses (27%). Total costs were US$ 848 (95% CI US$ 646-1,011), OOPE and indirect costs corresponded to 17.4% of the total. The median of direct medical costs per patient was three times higher in elderly patients. CONCLUSION: SARI influenza costs impose a high economic burden on patients and their families. The results highlight the importance of strengthening preventive strategies nationwide in the age groups with higher occurrence and incurred health costs.

Criteria for New Vaccine Introduction in a National Expanded Program on Immunization: A Survey of Expanded Program on Immunization Managers.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to critically review the decision-making (DM) processes for new vaccines introduction in Latin America's Expanded Program on Immunization (EPIs) and role of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). METHODS: An online survey was conducted between August and December 2019 to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) EPI managers, participants of the National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (NITAG). Information about criteria to introduce the most recent vaccine was asked. CEA role in that decision and technical knowledge of informants were investigated. Frequencies of categorical data were calculated. Bar plots and stacked bar plots were used to visualize the data. RESULTS: A total of 26 EPI managers and stakeholders participated in the survey from 14 LAC countries. Respondents worked at the Ministry of Health and the Pan American Health Organization. Most recent vaccines included were human papillomavirus (42.3%), injectable polio (26.9%), and varicella (15.4%). High burden of disease and cost-effectiveness/cost-utility were identified as the main a priori criteria used to new vaccine introduction, but not all inputs are available or good quality. Discussion about vaccine introduction was conducted at NITAG meetings, reported as independent by most countries. Nevertheless, NITAG members did not master the essential CEAs concepts. CONCLUSIONS: DM of vaccine introduction in LAC is reported by EPI managers as a process of discussion with participation of several actors where economic rationalities had a high role in the decision. It is necessary to strengthen the technical capacity to understand economical inputs to inform DM and advocate to include other rationalities as important in the discussion.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Strategies of COVID-19 Vaccination in Colombia: Comparison of High-Risk Prioritization and No Prioritization Strategies With the Absence of a Vaccination Plan.

OBJECTIVES: Our study compares two national COVID-19 vaccination plan strategies-high-risk prioritization and no prioritization-and estimates their cost-effectiveness compared with no vaccination, to generate possible recommendations for future vaccination plans. METHODS: We developed a Markov discrete-time, compartmental, deterministic model stratified by Colombian departments, healthcare workers, comorbidities, and age groups and calibrated to seroprevalence, cases, and deaths. The model simulates three scenarios: no vaccination, no prioritization of vaccination, and prioritization of high-risk population. The study presents the perspective of the health system of Colombia, including the direct health costs financed by the government and the direct health outcomes related to the infection. We measured symptomatic cases, deaths, and costs for each of the three scenarios from the start of the vaccination rollout to February 20, 2023. RESULTS: Both for the base-case and across multiple sensitivity analyses, the high-risk prioritization proves to be the most cost-effective of the considered strategies. An increment of US$255 million results in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$3339 per disability-adjusted life-year avoided. The simulations show that prioritization of high-risk population reduces symptomatic cases by 3.4% and deaths by 20.1% compared with no vaccination. The no-prioritization strategy is still cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$5223.66, but the sensitivity analysis the show potential risks of losing cost-effectiveness under the cost-effectiveness threshold (one gross domestic product per averted disability-adjusted life-year). CONCLUSIONS: The high-risk prioritization strategy is consistently more cost-effective than the no-prioritization strategy across multiple scenarios. High-risk prioritization is the recommended strategy in low-resource settings to reduce the burden of disease.

Substantial Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure on Prenatal Check-Ups: Estimates from a Sample of Pregnant Women in Cartagena, Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures and the indirect costs related to prenatal check-ups in pregnant women seen in a maternity hospital in the Colombian Caribbean region. METHODS: We described the economic costs of pregnant women, with no age limits, who attended prenatal check-ups in a maternity hospital. To estimate OOP and indirect costs owing to prenatal check-ups in pregnant women, a survey was constructed, where the woman was asked about some sociodemographic variables, to characterize those attending the prenatal check-ups. Absolute and relative frequencies, averages and confidence intervals were used to characterize the population and estimate OOP and indirect costs in pregnant women. The latter were estimated from the percentile method. A bootstrapping was performed to reduce the bias within the analysis. RESULTS: In total, 56 pregnant women were surveyed, with an average age of 25.9 years (±6.2). All women surveyed had OOP associated to the prenatal check-up in at least one cost-item, and the OOP ranged between $0.3 and $108.7. Transportation was the item with the highest frequency of expenses, followed by food, other expenses, and drugs. The mean of OOP expenditures was $24.3 (CI 95% $18.1-31.4) for women who attended their prenatal check-up. DISCUSSION: Considering the estimated OOP health expenditures caused by prenatal check-ups by household income, women living with <1 minimum wage spend 7% of their income in a prenatal check-up. In women with 1-2 and >2-3 minimum wages, these proportions were 5%, 3%, respectively. Unfortunately, this makes prenatal care a significant source of economic burden, impacting poor households in Cartagena.

The burden of the most common rheumatic disease in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the burden of rheumatic diseases (RDs) requires proper evaluation of its lethal and nonlethal consequences. In Colombia, it is possible to find local data and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) reports that collect information from varied contexts and apply complex statistical models, but no on-site estimations are available. METHODS: This was a descriptive study on the burden of RD based on occurrence and mortality data in the general population during 2015, including information and prevalence estimations from the Community Oriented Program for the Control of Rheumatic Diseases (COPCORD) study. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated by combining measures of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLDs). For disability weight estimations among cases, different COPCORD responses were mapped using flowcharts to show the severity distribution according to GBD. All model parameters and results were validated through an expert consensus panel. RESULTS: Low back pain (LBP) was the RD with the greatest burden of disease, costing 606.05 (95% CI 502.76-716.58) DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by osteoarthritis (292.11; 95% CI 205.76-386.85) and rheumatoid arthritis (192.46, 95% CI 109.7-239.69). CONCLUSIONS: The burden of RD is as high in Colombia as in other countries of the region. The results offer an interesting tool for optimizing healthcare system design as well as for planning the distribution of human and economic resources to achieve early diagnosis and adequate care of these diseases.

Indirect effects of the SARS CoV-2 pandemic on the prevalence of breastfeeding: Modeling its impact. / Efectos indirectos de la pandemia por SARS CoV-2 en la prevalencia de lactancia materna: modelación de su impacto

INTRODUCTION: Breastfeeding has a protective effect against acute respiratory and diarrheal infections. There are psychological and social effects due to physical isolation in the population in the mother-child group. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact on infant mortality due to a decrease in the prevalence of breastfeeding during 2020 due to the physical isolation against the SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic in Colombia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used the population attributable risk approach taking into account the prevalence of breastfeeding and its potential decrease associated with the measures of physical isolation and the relative risk (RR) of the association between exclusive breastfeeding and the occurrence of acute infection consequences in the growth (weight for height) of children under the age of five through a mathematical modeling program. RESULTS: We found an increase of 11.39% in the number of cases of growth arrest in the age group of 6 to 11 months with a 50% decrease in breastfeeding prevalence, as well as an increase in the number of diarrhea cases in children between 1 and 5 months of age from 5% (5.67%) on, and an increased number of deaths in children under 5 years (9.04%) with a 50% decrease in the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding. CONCLUSIONS: A lower prevalence of breastfeeding has an impact on infant morbidity and mortality in the short and medium-term. As a public health policy, current maternal and childcare strategies must be kept in order to reduce risks in the pediatric population.

Introducción. La lactancia materna tiene un efecto protector frente a infecciones respiratorias y diarreicas agudas. Hay efectos psicológicos y sociales por el aislamiento físico en la población en el grupo materno-infantil. Objetivo. Evaluar el eventual impacto en la mortalidad infantil de la disminución en la prevalencia de la lactancia materna durante el 2020 a causa del aislamiento físico por la pandemia del SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) en Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Se utilizó el enfoque de riesgo atribuible poblacional, teniendo en cuenta la prevalencia de la lactancia materna y su potencial disminución asociada con las medidas de aislamiento físico y el riesgo relativo (RR) de la asociación entre la lactancia materna exclusiva y el efecto de la aparición de infecciones agudas en el crecimiento (peso para la altura) de niños menores de cinco años mediante un programa de modelamiento matemático. Resultados. Se registró un aumento del número casos de detención del crecimiento en el grupo etario de 6 a 11 meses de 11,39 % al disminuir en 50 % la prevalencia de la lactancia materna, así como un mayor número de casos por diarrea en los cinco primeros meses a partir del 5 % (5,67 %), y un incremento en el número de muertes en menores de 5 años (9,04 %) al disminuirse en 50 % la prevalencia de la lactancia materna. Conclusiones. Se registró un impacto en la morbilidad y la mortalidad infantil a corto y mediano plazo al disminuir la prevalencia en la lactancia materna. Como política pública en salud, deben mantenerse las estrategias actuales de atención materno-infantil para disminuir riesgos en la población infantil.

Indirect effects of the SARS CoV-2 pandemic on the prevalence of breastfeeding: Modeling its impact / Efectos indirectos de la pandemia por SARS CoV-2 en la prevalencia de lactancia materna: modelación de su impacto

Abstract | Introduction: Breastfeeding has a protective effect against acute respiratory and diarrheal infections. There are psychological and social effects due to physical isolation in the population in the mother-child group. Objective: To assess the impact on infant mortality due to a decrease in the prevalence of breastfeeding during 2020 due to the physical isolation against the SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic in Colombia. Materials and methods: We used the population attributable risk approach taking into account the prevalence of breastfeeding and its potential decrease associated with the measures of physical isolation and the relative risk (RR) of the association between exclusive breastfeeding and the occurrence of acute infection consequences in the growth (weight for height) of children under the age of five through a mathematical modeling program. Results: We found an increase of 11.39% in the number of cases of growth arrest in the age group of 6 to 11 months with a 50% decrease in breastfeeding prevalence, as well as an increase in the number of diarrhea cases in children between 1 and 5 months of age from 5% (5.67%) on, and an increased number of deaths in children under 5 years (9.04%) with a 50% decrease in the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding. Conclusions: A lower prevalence of breastfeeding has an impact on infant morbidity and mortality in the short and medium-term. As a public health policy, current maternal and childcare strategies must be kept in order to reduce risks in the pediatric population.

Resumen | Introducción. La lactancia materna tiene un efecto protector frente a infecciones respiratorias y diarreicas agudas. Hay efectos psicológicos y sociales por el aislamiento físico en la población en el grupo materno-infantil. Objetivo. Evaluar el eventual impacto en la mortalidad infantil de la disminución en la prevalencia de la lactancia materna durante el 2020 a causa del aislamiento físico por la pandemia del SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) en Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Se utilizó el enfoque de riesgo atribuible poblacional, teniendo en cuenta la prevalencia de la lactancia materna y su potencial disminución asociada con las medidas de aislamiento físico y el riesgo relativo (RR) de la asociación entre la lactancia materna exclusiva y el efecto de la aparición de infecciones agudas en el crecimiento (peso para la altura) de niños menores de cinco años mediante un programa de modelamiento matemático. Resultados. Se registró un aumento del número casos de detención del crecimiento en el grupo etario de 6 a 11 meses de 11,39 % al disminuir en 50 % la prevalencia de la lactancia materna, así como un mayor número de casos por diarrea en los cinco primeros meses a partir del 5 % (5,67 %), y un incremento en el número de muertes en menores de 5 años (9,04 %) al disminuirse en 50 % la prevalencia de la lactancia materna. Conclusiones. Se registró un impacto en la morbilidad y la mortalidad infantil a corto y mediano plazo al disminuir la prevalencia en la lactancia materna. Como política pública en salud, deben mantenerse las estrategias actuales de atención materno-infantil para disminuir riesgos en la población infantil.

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease.

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

Inequalities in dental prenatal control in Colombia: An analysis based on the IV National Oral Health Study, 2013-2014 / [Desigualdades en el control odontológico prenatal en Colombia, un análisis a partir del IV Estudio Nacional de Salud Bucal 2013-2014].

Introduction: Dental care is essential in guaranteeing the right to healthy motherhood. In Colombia, prenatal care policies incorporate the promotion, prevention, and care in oral health as part of the comprehensive care that pregnant women must receive within the health system. However, there is no systematic monitoring of compliance with these guidelines. Objective: To explore effective care and social inequalities in the provision and use of prenatal dental control in Colombia. Materials and methods: This was a descriptive study with data on pregnant women reported in the Fourth National Oral Health Study, 2013-2014. Absolute and relative social inequalities were estimated according to the area of residence, ethnicity, education level, health affiliation regime, and socioeconomic stratum. Results: We analyzed the data from 1,050 pregnant women. In total, 88.37% received prenatal control and 57.19%, dental control. We observed a general pattern of social gaps in the effective use of the latter, mainly due to the health insurance regime. The pregnant women with the greatest possibility of having some prenatal dental control, were those with some health insurance (prevalence ratio [RP]=2.62; CI 95%: 2.12-3.12), residents in urban areas (RP= 1,37; CI95%: 1.18-1.56), with higher and/or technical education level (RP=1.20; CI95%: 1.02-1.38) or from mid-high social strata (RP=1.15; CI95%: 1.01-1.29). Conclusions: In Colombia, the effective provision of dental control to pregnant women as part of comprehensive prenatal care continues to be a challenge. Significant efforts are required to comply with regulations and reduce social inequalities in access to this service.

Introducción. La atención odontológica es esencial para garantizar el derecho a una maternidad saludable. En Colombia, las políticas de atención prenatal incorporan la promoción, prevención y atención en salud bucal como parte de la atención integral que deben recibir las mujeres gestantes en el sistema de salud, sin embargo, no se hace un seguimiento sistemático del cumplimiento de estas directrices. Objetivo. Explorar la atención efectiva y las desigualdades sociales en la prestación y el uso del control odontológico prenatal en Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Estudio descriptivo con datos de las mujeres gestantes reportadas en el Cuarto Estudio Nacional de Salud Bucal, 2013-2014. Se estimaron las desigualdades sociales absolutas y relativas, según zona de residencia, pertenencia étnica, nivel educativo, régimen de afiliación a los servicios de salud y estrato socioeconómico. Resultados. Se analizaron los datos de 1.050 mujeres gestantes. El 88,37 % recibió control prenatal y, el 57,19 %, control odontológico. Se observó un patrón general de brechas sociales en el uso efectivo de este último servicio, principalmente en función del aseguramiento. Las mujeres gestantes con mayor posibilidad de recibir atención odontológica prenatal fueron aquellas con algún aseguramiento en salud (razón de prevalencias, RP=2,62; IC95% 2,12-3,12), residentes en zonas urbanas (RP=1,37; IC95% 1,18-1,56), con nivel educativo técnico o superior (RP=1,20; IC95% 1,02-1,38) o de estratos sociales medios o altos (RP=1,15; IC95% 1,01-1,29). Conclusiones. En Colombia, la prestación efectiva del control odontológico a mujeres gestantes como parte de la atención prenatal integral, sigue siendo un reto. Se requieren importantes esfuerzos para cumplir las normas y reducir las desigualdades sociales en el acceso a este servicio.