The coordination of collective and individual solutions in risk-resistant scenarios.

Abstract: Human societies are constantly coping with global risks. In the face of these risks, people typically have two options, that is, to respond together as a whole (collective solution) or to respond independently (individual solution). Based on these two solutions, individuals have a variety of behavioral strategies. On the other hand, various regulatory bodies supported by the population limit people's choices and punish individuals who do not contribute to collective solutions. So with different risks, how do the two solutions, the various individual strategies, and the constraints from regulators affect the group's response to risk? This paper proposes an extended public goods game model involving opportunists and the regulator to explore the effectiveness of collective and individual solutions against risks. The results show that requiring individuals to invest more in the collective solution reduces the group' s success in resisting risk. To improve the group's ability to resist risk, investment in individual solution should be at least no less than that in collective solution. The establishment fund and punishment intensity of the regulatory agency have no significant effect on the success of collective and individual solutions. This inspires us to contemplate the role and measures of various types of authorities in coping with global risks.

Authority or Autonomy? Exploring Interactions between Central and Peer Punishments in Risk-Resistant Scenarios.

Game theory provides a powerful means to study human cooperation and better understand cooperation-facilitating mechanisms in general. In classical game-theoretic models, an increase in group cooperation constantly increases people's gains, implying that individual gains are a continuously varying function of the cooperation rate. However, this is inconsistent with the increasing number of risk-resistant scenarios in reality. A risk-resistant scenario means once a group does not successfully resist the risk, all individuals lose their resources, such as a community coping with COVID-19 and a village resisting a flood. In other words, individuals' gains are segmented about the collaboration rate. This paper builds a risk-resistant model to explore whether punishment still promotes collaboration when people resist risk. The results show that central and peer punishments can both encourage collaboration but with different characteristics under different risk-resistant scenarios. Specifically, central punishment constrains the collaboration motivated by peer punishment regardless of risk, while peer punishment limits the collaboration induced by central punishment only when the risk is high. Our findings provide insights into the balance between peer punishment from public autonomy and central punishment from central governance, and the proposed model paves the way for the development of richer risk-resistant models.

Improving Stock Closing Price Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network and Technical Indicators.

This study focuses on predicting stock closing prices by using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). A long short-term memory (LSTM) model, a type of RNN coupled with stock basic trading data and technical indicators, is introduced as a novel method to predict the closing price of the stock market. We realize dimension reduction for the technical indicators by conducting principal component analysis (PCA). To train the model, some optimization strategies are followed, including adaptive moment estimation (Adam) and Glorot uniform initialization. Case studies are conducted on Standard & Poor's 500, NASDAQ, and Apple (AAPL). Plenty of comparison experiments are performed using a series of evaluation criteria to evaluate this model. Accurate prediction of stock market is considered an extremely challenging task because of the noisy environment and high volatility associated with the external factors. We hope the methodology we propose advances the research for analyzing and predicting stock time series. As the results of experiments suggest, the proposed model achieves a good level of fitness.

Localized Ambient Solidity Separation Algorithm Based Computer User Segmentation.

Most of popular clustering methods typically have some strong assumptions of the dataset. For example, the k-means implicitly assumes that all clusters come from spherical Gaussian distributions which have different means but the same covariance. However, when dealing with datasets that have diverse distribution shapes or high dimensionality, these assumptions might not be valid anymore. In order to overcome this weakness, we proposed a new clustering algorithm named localized ambient solidity separation (LASS) algorithm, using a new isolation criterion called centroid distance. Compared with other density based isolation criteria, our proposed centroid distance isolation criterion addresses the problem caused by high dimensionality and varying density. The experiment on a designed two-dimensional benchmark dataset shows that our proposed LASS algorithm not only inherits the advantage of the original dissimilarity increments clustering method to separate naturally isolated clusters but also can identify the clusters which are adjacent, overlapping, and under background noise. Finally, we compared our LASS algorithm with the dissimilarity increments clustering method on a massive computer user dataset with over two million records that contains demographic and behaviors information. The results show that LASS algorithm works extremely well on this computer user dataset and can gain more knowledge from it.