Effectiveness of Wolbachia-mediated sterility coupled with sterile insect technique to suppress adult Aedes aegypti populations in Singapore: a synthetic control study.

BACKGROUND: Incompatible insect technique (IIT) coupled with sterile insect technique (SIT) via the release of sterile male Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is a promising tool for Aedes-borne disease control. Yet, real-world evidence on the suppressive effectiveness of IIT-SIT on mosquito abundance remains mostly limited to small semi-rural village and suburban localities over short trial durations. However, a large proportion of Aedes-borne diseases occur in dense, urban, and high-rise locations, limiting the applicability of previous studies for these settings with high disease burden. The sustainability and use of this technology over multiple years is also unknown. METHODS: In this synthetic control study, we conducted a large-scale, field trial of IIT-SIT targeting Aedes aegypti among high-rise public housing estates in Singapore, an equatorial city state. Routinely collected data from a large, nationwide surveillance system of 57 990 unique mosquito traps, combined with a high-dimensional set of anthropogenic and environmental confounders were collected to ascertain mosquito abundance and its key drivers. Four townships were selected as the intervention groups (approximate population size of 607 872 residents as of 2022), wherein interventions that combined ITT with SIT over the course of the study period were conducted. Townships were subject to releases of wAlbB-SG male A aegypti mosquitoes twice a week. Data were assessed over the course of epidemiological weeks (EWs), which provide the finest temporal resolution of recorded Wolbachia release schedule and mosquito abundance data. A novel synthetic control framework was then developed to account for the non-randomised and staggered adoption setting of the intervention across trial sectors to identify the direct suppressive effectiveness of IIT-SIT on female A aegypti populations, the spillover effects in non-release areas, and the effect of the intervention on other mosquito populations such as Aedes albopictus. Furthermore, we recalculated effectiveness in terms of calendar time, time since intervention, and over multiple sites to examine heterogeneities in IIT-SIT effectiveness. FINDINGS: Between EW27 2018 and EW26 2022, Wolbachia releases were conducted across 117 sectors, of which 97 had sufficient trap data, which were collected between EW8 2019 and EW26 2022. We found that Wolbachia-based IIT-SIT reduced wild-type female A aegypti populations by a mean of 62·01% (95% CI 60·68 to 63·26) by 3 months, 78·40% (77·56 to 79·18) by 6 months, and 91·32% (90·95 to 91·66) by at least 18 months of releases. We also found a smaller but non-negligible spillover suppression effect that gradually increased over time (mean spillover intervention effectiveness 61·02% [95% CI 57·89 to 63·72] in adjacent, non-intervention sectors). Although no consistent change in A albopictus populations was seen across the four intervention townships after Wolbachia releases, the average intervention effectiveness on the A albopictus population across all release sectors was -25·80% (95% CI -30·93 to -21·05), which was driven by increases in two towns. INTERPRETATION: Our results demonstrate the potential of IIT-SIT for strengthening long-term, large-scale vector control in tropical cities, where dengue burden is the greatest. The effect of these interventions in different geographical settings should be assessed in future work. FUNDING: Singapore's Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment, National Environment Agency, and National Robotics Program.

Assessing Wolbachia-mediated sterility for dengue control: emulation of a cluster-randomized target trial in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Matings between male Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with wAlbB strain of Wolbachia and wildtype females yield non-viable eggs. We evaluated the efficacy of releasing wAlbB-infected Ae. aegypti male mosquitoes to suppress dengue. METHODS: We specified the protocol of a two-arm cluster-randomized test-negative controlled trial (cRCT) and emulated it using a nationally representative test-negative/positive database of individuals reporting for febrile illness to any public hospital, general practitioner or polyclinic. We retrospectively built a cohort of individuals who reside in Wolbachia locations vs a comparator control group who do not reside in Wolbachia locations, using a nationally representative database of all individuals whom report for febrile illness and were tested for dengue at the Environmental Health Institute/hospital laboratories/commercial diagnostic laboratories, through general practitioner clinic, polyclinic or public/private hospital from epidemiological week (EW) 1 2019 to EW26 2022. We emulated a constrained randomization protocol used in cRCTs to balance dengue risk between intervention and control arms in the pre-intervention period. We used the inverse probability weighting approach to further balance the intervention and control groups using a battery of algorithmically selected sociodemographic, environmental and anthropogenic variables. Intention-to-treat analyses were conducted to estimate the risk reduction of dengue given Wolbachia exposure. RESULTS: Intention-to-treat analyses revealed that, compared with controls, Wolbachia releases for 3, 6 and ≥12 months was associated to 47% (95% confidence interval: 25-69%), 44% (33-77%) and 61% (38-78%) protective efficacy against dengue, respectively. When exposed to ≥12 months of Wolbachia releases, protective efficacies ranged from 49% (13-72%) to 77% (60-94%) across years. The proportion of virologically confirmed dengue cases was lower overall in the intervention arm. Protective efficacies were found across all years, age and sex subgroups, with higher durations of Wolbachia exposure associated to greater risk reductions of dengue. CONCLUSION: Results demonstrated that Wolbachia-mediated sterility can strengthen dengue control in tropical cities, where dengue burden is the greatest.

Update to: Assessing the efficacy of male Wolbachia-infected mosquito deployments to reduce dengue incidence in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: This trial is a parallel, two-arm, non-blinded cluster randomised controlled trial that is under way in Singapore, with the aim of measuring the efficacy of male Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti deployments in reducing dengue incidence in an endemic setting with all four dengue serotypes in circulation. The trial commenced in July 2022 and is expected to conclude in September 2024. The original study protocol was published in December 2022. Here, we describe amendments that have been made to the study protocol since commencement of the trial. METHODS: The key protocol amendments are (1) addition of an explicit definition of Wolbachia exposure for residents residing in intervention sites based on the duration of Wolbachia exposure at point of testing, (2) incorporation of a high-dimensional set of anthropogenic and environmental characteristics in the analysis plan to adjust for baseline risk factors of dengue transmission, and (3) addition of alternative statistical analyses for endpoints to control for post hoc imbalance in cluster-based environmental and anthropogenic characteristics. DISCUSSION: The findings from this study will provide the first experimental evidence for the efficacy of releasing male-Wolbachia infected mosquitoes to reduce dengue incidence in a cluster-randomised controlled trial. The trial will conclude in 2024 and results will be reported shortly thereafter. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT05505682. Registered on 16 August 2022. Retrospectively registered. Last updated 11 November 2023.

Efficacy of Wolbachia-mediated sterility to reduce the incidence of dengue: a synthetic control study in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Due to the absence of available therapeutics and good vaccines, vector control solutions are needed to mitigate the spread of dengue. Matings between male Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the wAlbB strain of Wolbachia and wildtype females yield non-viable eggs. We evaluated the efficacy of releasing wAlbB-infected A aegypti male mosquitoes to suppress dengue incidence. METHODS: In this synthetic control study, we conducted large-scale field trials in Singapore involving release of wAlbB-infected A aegypti male mosquitoes for dengue control via vector population suppression, from epidemiological week (EW) 27, 2018, to EW 26, 2022. We selected two large towns (Yishun and Tampines) to adopt an expanding release strategy and two smaller towns (Bukit Batok and Choa Chu Kang) to adopt a targeted-release approach. Releases were conducted two times a week in high-rise public housing estates. All intervention and control locations practised the same baseline dengue control protocol. The main outcome was weekly dengue incidence rate caused by any dengue virus serotype. We used incidence data collected by the Singapore Ministry of Health to assess the efficacy of the interventions. To compare interventions, we used the synthetic control method to generate appropriate counterfactuals for the intervention towns using a weighted combination of 30 control towns between EW 1, 2014 and EW 26, 2022. FINDINGS: Our study comprised an at-risk population of 607 872 individuals living in intervention sites and 3 894 544 individuals living in control sites. Interventions demonstrated up to 77·28% (121/156, 95% CI 75·81-78·58) intervention efficacy despite incomplete coverage across all towns until EW 26, 2022. Intervention efficacies increased as release coverage increased across all intervention sites. Releases led to 2242 (95% CI 2092-2391) fewer cases per 100 000 people in intervention sites during the study period. Secondary analysis showed that these intervention effects were replicated across all age groups and both sexes for intervention sites. INTERPRETATION: Our results demonstrated the potential of Wolbachia-mediated incompatible insect technique for strengthening dengue control in tropical cities, where dengue burden is the greatest. FUNDING: Singapore Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Sustainability, and the National Environment Agency, and the Singapore National Robotics Program.