Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the South African tobacco and alcohol industries: Experiences from British American Tobacco and Distell Group Limited.

South Africa declared a State of National Disaster due to the COVID-19 pandemic, instituting a nationwide lockdown on 26 March 2020. Sale of goods and services classified as non-essential, such as tobacco and liquor, were prohibited, leading to widespread concerns about viability, job losses and investment in these industries. The study highlighted the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the South African alcohol and tobacco industries, taking the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed British American Tobacco (BTI) and Distell Group Limited (DGH) as cases. The Chow Test was utilised to determine the presence of a structural break on the BTI and DGH share prices on both the pronouncement and enactment days of the COVID-19 lockdown. Furthermore, Threshold Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (TGARCH) (1,1) was also used to test for the effects of the COVID-19 lockdown. The sample data used was daily closing share prices from 9 May 2019 to 9 May 2020, from Google Finance. The results show a structural break on the share prices on the enactment of the 26 March 2020, COVID-19 lockdown. Furthermore, the lockdown had a negative effect on the share prices of BTI and DGH. The study concludes that the COVID-19 lockdown will have long-lasting impacts on the ability of the industries to attract financing for recovery and expansion, and existing shareholders will experience reduced earnings, if any. Policy makers should promote investment by increasing interest rates, promoting local demand and supply, and provide business support to mitigate job losses.

Farmers' preference and willingness to pay for a multivalent lumpy skin disease and Rift Valley fever novel vaccine: A discrete choice experiment in the Free State province, South Africa.

Rift Valley fever and lumpy skin disease are infectious ruminant diseases that are endemic in most African countries. The most cost-effective method of prevention and control is through annual vaccination. However, unlike lumpy skin disease, annual vaccination against Rift Valley fever is not practiced by many farmers due to its sporadic occurrences and shortcoming of the existing vaccines. This necessitates development of novel vaccines that would provide dual protection against a Rift Valley fever and a more prevalent disease. In this study, a discrete choice experiment was undertaken to guide vaccine development by examining the value smallholder livestock farmers place on different vaccine attributes and related attribute levels. The attributes considered are target-species, thermotolerance, nature of the vaccine, efficacy and price. The study was carried out with 164 smallholder livestock farmers in the Free State province. Results indicate that thermostaility is not a major deciding attribute to smallholder farmer's choice of vaccine. Farmers prefer multivalent vaccines, which are highly efficacious with about 90-100 % efficacy levels. Farmers were found to be heterogeneous in preference. The heterogeneity is explained by socio-economic factors such as type of livestock owned, income level, gender and perceived disease risk. Farmers were also willing to pay for preferred attribute levels. However, for less favourable levels such as multispecies, female farmers were willing to accept a lower compensation than males. These findings present a favourable potential for development of a novel multivalent vaccine and also provide vaccine research and development scientists with evidence based knowledge for development of vaccines that cater for the needs of smallholder farmers.

Yield gains larger in GM maize for human consumption than livestock feed in South Africa.

The majority of genetically modified (GM) crops are produced for livestock consumption, whereas minimal attention has been given to GM crops for direct human consumption. In South Africa, GM white maize has been grown for direct human consumption alongside GM yellow maize and conventional hybrid (CH) maize for livestock feed since 1999. Here we investigate yield differences between GM white, GM yellow and CH maize across 106 locations, 28 years, 491 cultivars, and 49,335 dryland and 9,617 irrigated observations in South Africa. GM maize increased mean yields over CH by 0.42 metric tons (Mt) ha-1 and reduced yield risk. We show that GM white maize increased yields by 0.60 Mt ha-1 and GM yellow maize by 0.27 Mt ha-1 compared with CH maize. GM yield gains were similar for dry and irrigated production. Our study highlights the potential impacts of growing GM grain crops for human consumption in African countries.

Yield reduction under climate warming varies among wheat cultivars in South Africa.

Understanding extreme weather impacts on staple crops such as wheat is vital for creating adaptation strategies and increasing food security, especially in dryland cropping systems across Southern Africa. This study analyses heat impacts on wheat using daily weather information and a dryland wheat dataset for 71 cultivars across 17 locations in South Africa from 1998 to 2014. We estimate temperature impacts on yields in extensive regression models, finding that extreme heat drives wheat yield losses, with an additional 24 h of exposure to temperatures above 30 °C associated with a 12.5% yield reduction. Results from a uniform warming scenario of +1 °C show an average wheat yield reduction of 8.5%, which increases to 18.4% and 28.5% under +2 and +3 °C scenarios. We also find evidence of differences in heat effects across cultivars, which suggests warming impacts may be reduced through the sharing of gene pools amongst wheat breeding programs.

Qualitative benefits of livestock development programmes. Evidence from the Kaonafatso ya Dikgomo (KyD) Scheme in South Africa.

The objective of the study was to develop an index which circumvents the need for quantitative measures in evaluating Livestock Development Programmes (LDPs). This was done through a conceptual framework which integrates indexing and the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) to attain qualitative benefits. The study utilised a cross-sectional survey of Kaonafatso ya Dikgomo (KyD) Scheme participants in KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Limpopo Provinces, South Africa, as a case. Data were collected through a questionnaire. Multiple sampling methods were used to identify 164 respondents. The results showed low benefits as exhibited by an index of 0.26. The Scheme showed highest benefits through social capital, followed by human, natural, financial and physical capital, respectively. The study concluded that concentrating on income proxies through conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) tends to mask the qualitative benefits exhibited by livestock improvement programmes. The theoretical lessons learnt included the exhibition and possibility of measuring qualitative benefits through indexing. Recommendations include further inquiry and refining the construction of the index to circumvent its subjectivity.

The role of public wheat breeding in reducing food insecurity in South Africa.

Although classified as an upper middle-income country, food insecurity is still a concern throughout South Africa, as was evident in 2014-2015 when a drought left 22% of households food insecure. Further, a range of domestic and international factors make the local currency unstable, leaving South Africa exposed to risk in global wheat and exchange rate markets and increasing its food insecurity vulnerability. As such, agricultural research in South Africa is needed specifically in plant breeding to increase yields and help mitigate future food insecurity. To foster scientific innovation for food security, the South African government funds the Agricultural Research Council (ARC), which conducts holistic research on wheat and other crops. This study estimates the proportions of increases in yield of ARC's wheat cultivars, which are attributable solely to genetic improvements. In total, 25,690 yield observations from 125 countrywide test plots from 1998 to 2014 were utilized to estimate the proportions of yield increases attributable to the ARC. We found that South African farmers who adopted the ARC's wheat varieties experienced an annual yield gain of 0.75%, 0.30%, and 0.093% in winter, facultative, and irrigated spring wheat types, respectively. Using observed area sown to ARC varieties, we estimated that wheat producers gained $106.45 million (2016 USD) during 1992-2015 via the adoption of ARC varieties. We estimated that every dollar invested in the ARC wheat breeding program generated a return of $5.10. Assuming the South African per capita wheat consumption is 60.9 kg/year, our results suggest that the ARC breeding program provided an average of 253,318 additional wheat rations from 1992-2015. Further, the net surplus (consumer plus producer) from the ARC breeding program was estimated at 42.64 million 2016 USD from 1992-2015. Public breeding programs, especially those focused on wheat and other staple foods, must continue if South Africa is to meet growing global food demand, decrease present global food insecurity, and maintain the genetic enhancements that directly enhances yield and benefits low-income consumers.