Cluster of differentiation-44 as a novel biomarker of lupus nephritis and its role in kidney inflammation and fibrosis.

Introduction: CD44 is a transmembrane glycoprotein implicated in tissue inflammation and fibrosis. We investigated its role in kidney inflammation and fibrosis in a murine model of lupus nephritis (LN), and the clinico-pathological association of serum CD44 level in patients with biopsy-proven Class III/IV ± V LN. Methods: NZB/W F1 mice were treated with control IgG or anti-CD44 monoclonal antibody for 4 weeks and disease parameters assessed. Serum CD44 level in LN patients was determined by ELISA. Control groups included healthy subjects and patients with non-renal SLE or non-lupus renal disease. Results: CD44 expression was absent in the normal kidney, but it was expressed in proximal and distal tubular epithelial cells and infiltrating cells in renal biopsies from patients with active proliferative LN. ScRNA-Seq datasets confirmed that CD44 was predominantly expressed in tubular cells and all immune cells identified in LN patients including tissue resident, inflammatory and phagocytic macrophages, Treg cells, effector and central memory CD4+ T cells, resident memory CD8+ T cells and naïve and activated B cells. Treatment of NZB/W F1 mice with anti-CD44 antibody preserved kidney histology and reduced proteinuria, tubulo-interstitial infiltration of CD3+, CD4+ and CD19+ immune cells, and mediators of kidney fibrosis compared to Control mice. Longitudinal studies showed that serum CD44 level increased prior to clinical renal flare by 4.5 months and the level decreased after treatment. ROC curve analysis showed that CD44 level distinguished patients with active LN from healthy subjects and patients with quiescent LN, active non-renal lupus, and non-lupus CKD (ROC AUC of 0.99, 0.96, 0.99 and 0.99 respectively). CD44 level correlated with leukocyte infiltration and interstitial inflammation scores in active LN kidney biopsies. Discussion: Our findings suggest that CD44 plays a pathogenic role in renal parenchymal inflammation and fibrosis in active LN and monitoring CD44 may facilitate early diagnosis of flare.

Alterations in exhausted and classical memory B cells in lupus nephritis - Relationship with disease relapse.

INTRODUCTION: B cell exhaustion is a functional abnormality of B lymphocytes observed in chronic infections and shows association with autoreactivity. The role of exhausted and classical memory B cells in maintaining disease stability of lupus nephritis (LN) remains unclear. METHODS: We measured classical memory (CD19+CD21+CD27+), exhausted B cells (CD19+CD21-CD27-), and related cytokines in LN patients with multiple relapses (MR) (n = 15) and no relapse (NR) (n = 15) during disease remission. The expression of inhibitory/adhesion molecules, cell proliferation and calcium mobilization in classical memory and exhausted B cells were also assessed. RESULTS: The MR group had higher proportion of circulating exhausted and classical memory B cells compared to the NR group and healthy controls (HC) (p all <0.05 for MR vs. NR or HC). Blood levels of IL-6, BAFF, IL-21, CD62L, CXCR3 and Siglec-6 were all higher in the MR group (p < 0.05, for all). Exhausted B cells from the MR group showed higher FcRL4, CD22, CD85j and CD183 but lower CD62L expression than NR and HC groups. Exhausted B cells from MR patients exhibited reduced proliferation compared to NR patients and HC, while classical memory B cell proliferation in MR group was higher than the other two groups. Exhausted B cells from both MR and NR patients showed impaired calcium mobilization. CONCLUSION: Alterations in exhausted and classical memory B cells are related to disease relapse in LN. These findings may help devise new strategies for monitoring disease activity and preventing relapse in LN.

Palliative care in kidney transplant recipients with graft failure.

Kidney transplantation is the best renal replacement therapy for patients with end stage kidney disease. It provides longer patient survival and better quality of life than dialysis. The clinical course after kidney transplantation could be complex and variable. Patients may develop various complications or even kidney graft failure. Symptom burden related to uraemia in patients with graft failure, and the side-effects of immunosuppression, cause psychological distress and adversely affect the quality of life of patients. Treatment decisions in patients with graft failure can be challenging to patients and their caregivers. Renal palliative care is an emerging field, but its adoption remains relatively low among kidney transplant recipients with progressive graft failure. In this context, timely consideration and referral for palliative care can improve symptom burden, reduce stress in patients and their caregivers, and facilitate treatment goal setting and advanced care planning. Common barriers to bring palliative care to suitable patients include: (I) misconception in patients, caregivers and healthcare providers that palliative care means abandonment of life sustaining treatment; (II) over-optimistic prognostic assessment and over-aggressive management approach; (III) insufficient awareness and training in palliative care of healthcare professionals; (IV) inadequate access to and insufficient resources in palliative care. Enhanced training and awareness, and further studies, would be needed to optimize the decision process and delineate the benefit of palliative care, and to guide evidence-based practice in the transplant population.

Immunogenicity and Safety of the Three-Dose COVID-19 Vaccine Regimen in Patients Receiving Renal Replacement Therapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: A three-dose regimen is the current standard for COVID-19 vaccination, but systematic data on immunogenicity and safety in chronic kidney disease patients remains limited. Objectives: We conducted a meta-analysis on the immunogenicity and safety of three-dose COVID-19 vaccination in patients on renal replacement therapy (RRT). Methods: Systematic literature search in four electronic databases yielded twenty eligible studies (2,117 patients, 94% of whom received mRNA vaccines) for meta-analysis. Results: The overall seropositivity rate of anti-SARS-CoV-2 was 74.2% (95% CI: 65.0-83.4%) after three-dose COVID-19 vaccination. The seropositivity rate of anti-SARS-CoV-2 in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) was 64.6% (95% CI: 58.7-70.5%), and 43.5% (95% CI: 38.5-48.6%) of non-responders after second dose became seropositive after third dose. The seropositivity rate of anti-SARS-CoV-2 was 92.9% (95% CI: 89.5-96.2%) in dialysis patients, and 64.6% (95% CI: 46.8-82.3%) of non-responders after second dose became seropositive after third dose. In KTRs, each year increase in transplant vintage was associated with 35.6% increase in anti-SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity (95% CI: 15.9-55.4%, p = 0.01). There were no serious adverse events attributed to vaccination in KTRs, and the commonest local and systemic adverse events were injection site pain and fatigue, respectively. Conclusion: Three-dose COVID-19 vaccination regimen in patients on RRT is associated with reduced immunogenicity, especially in KTRs. There are no adverse events associated with third-dose COVID-19 vaccine in KTRs.

Cardiovascular risk factors and complications in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus with and without nephritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: It remains unclear how the presence of renal involvement will affect the cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and complications in patients with SLE. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using PubMed, EMBASE, MEDLINE and Scopus to identify studies published between 1947 and 2022 that evaluate the CV risk factors and complications in patients with SLE with or without lupus nephritis (LN). RESULTS: 58 studies were evaluated, with 22 two-arm studies (n=8675) included in two-arm meta-analysis and 45 studies (n=385 315) included in proportional meta-analysis. Patients with SLE with LN showed significantly higher risk of hypertension (HT) (OR=4.93, 95% CI=3.17 to 7.65, p<0.00001, I2=56%), hyperlipidaemia (OR=11.03, 95% CI=4.20 to 28.95, p<0.00001, I2=0%) and diabetes mellitus (DM) (OR=1.88, 95% CI=1.09 to 3.25, p=0.02, I2=32%) compared with those without LN. Patients with LN showed numerically higher prevalence of myocardial infarction (OR=1.35, 95% CI=0.53 to 3.45, p=0.52, I2=78%) and cerebrovascular accident (OR=1.64, 95% CI=0.79 to 3.39, p=0.27, I2=23%) than general patients with SLE. The incidence rates of CV mortality are also increased in patients with SLE with LN compared with those without LN (11.7/1000 patient-years vs 3.6/1000 patient-years). CONCLUSION: Patients with SLE with LN show increased risk of CV risk factors including DM, HT and hyperlipidaemia. Early identification and optimal control of these CV risk factors may reduce the risk of CV disease and other non-CV complications. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022314682.

Consensus statement on the management of hyperkalaemia-An Asia-Pacific perspective.

Hyperkalaemia is an electrolyte imbalance that impairs muscle function and myocardial excitability, and can potentially lead to fatal arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. The prevalence of hyperkalaemia is estimated to be 6%-7% worldwide and 7%-10% in Asia. Hyperkalaemia frequently affects patients with chronic kidney disease, heart failure, and diabetes mellitus, particularly those receiving treatment with renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitors. Both hyperkalaemia and interruption of RAAS inhibitor therapy are associated with increased risks for cardiovascular events, hospitalisations, and death, highlighting a clinical dilemma in high-risk patients. Conventional potassium-binding resins are widely used for the treatment of hyperkalaemia; however, caveats such as the unpalatable taste and the risk of gastrointestinal side effects limit their chronic use. Recent evidence suggests that, with a rapid onset of action and improved gastrointestinal tolerability, novel oral potassium binders (e.g., patiromer and sodium zirconium cyclosilicate) are alternative treatment options for both acute and chronic hyperkalaemia. To optimise the care for patients with hyperkalaemia in the Asia-Pacific region, a multidisciplinary expert panel was convened to review published literature, share clinical experiences, and ultimately formulate 25 consensus statements, covering three clinical areas: (i) risk factors of hyperkalaemia and risk stratification in susceptible patients; (ii) prevention of hyperkalaemia for at-risk individuals; and (iii) correction of hyperkalaemia for at-risk individuals with cardiorenal disease. These statements were expected to serve as useful guidance in the management of hyperkalaemia for health care providers in the region.

Executive summary of the KDIGO 2024 Clinical Practice Guideline for the Management of Lupus Nephritis.

The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Clinical Practice Guideline for the Management of Glomerular Diseases was published in 2021. Since then, the pace of drug development for glomerular diseases has accelerated, due in large part to rapidly accumulating insights into disease pathogenesis from genetic and molecular studies of afflicted patients. To keep the Glomerular Diseases Guideline as current as possible, KDIGO made a commitment to the nephrology community to provide periodic updates, based on new developments for each disease. After the 2021 guideline was published, two novel drugs received regulatory approval for the management of lupus nephritis, leading to the first KDIGO guideline update. Herein, an executive summary of the most important guideline changes from the Lupus Nephritis chapter is provided as a quick reference.

A Phase 2 Trial of Sibeprenlimab in Patients with IgA Nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: A proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL) is implicated in the pathogenesis of IgA nephropathy. Sibeprenlimab is a humanized IgG2 monoclonal antibody that binds to and neutralizes APRIL. METHODS: In this phase 2, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial, we randomly assigned adults with biopsy-confirmed IgA nephropathy who were at high risk for disease progression, despite having received standard-care treatment, in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to receive intravenous sibeprenlimab at a dose of 2, 4, or 8 mg per kilogram of body weight or placebo once monthly for 12 months. The primary end point was the change from baseline in the log-transformed 24-hour urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio at month 12. Secondary end points included the change from baseline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at month 12. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: Among 155 patients who underwent randomization, 38 received sibeprenlimab at a dose of 2 mg per kilogram, 41 received sibeprenlimab at a dose of 4 mg per kilogram, 38 received sibeprenlimab at a dose of 8 mg per kilogram, and 38 received placebo. At 12 months, the geometric mean ratio reduction (±SE) from baseline in the 24-hour urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio was 47.2±8.2%, 58.8±6.1%, 62.0±5.7%, and 20.0±12.6% in the sibeprenlimab 2-mg, 4-mg, and 8-mg groups and the placebo group, respectively. At 12 months, the least-squares mean (±SE) change from baseline in eGFR was -2.7±1.8, 0.2±1.7, -1.5±1.8, and -7.4±1.8 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 in the sibeprenlimab 2-mg, 4-mg, and 8-mg groups and the placebo group, respectively. The incidence of adverse events that occurred after the start of administration of sibeprenlimab or placebo was 78.6% in the pooled sibeprenlimab groups and 71.1% in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with IgA nephropathy, 12 months of treatment with sibeprenlimab resulted in a significantly greater decrease in proteinuria than placebo. (Funded by Visterra; ENVISION ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04287985; EudraCT number, 2019-002531-29.).

Renal relapse in children and adolescents with childhood-onset lupus nephritis: a 20-year study.

OBJECTIVES: There is little data on renal relapse in childhood-onset LN (cLN). We investigate the incidence, predictive factors and outcomes related to renal relapse. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all cLN diagnosed at ≤18 years between 2001-2021 to investigate the incidence and outcomes related to renal relapse. RESULTS: Ninety-five Chinese cLN patients (91% proliferative LN) were included. Induction immunosuppression was prednisolone and CYC [n = 36 (38%)] or MMF [n = 33 (35%)]. Maintenance immunosuppression was prednisolone and MMF [n = 53 (54%)] or AZA [n = 29 (31%)]. The rates of complete remission/partial remission (CR/PR) at 12 months were 78.9%/7.4%. Seventy renal relapses occurred in 39 patients over a follow-up of 10.2 years (s.d. 5.9) (0.07 episode/patient-year). Relapse-free survival was 94.7, 86.0, 80.1, 71.2, 68.3, 50.3 and 44.5% at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 and 20 years, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that LN diagnosis <13.1 years [adjusted hazard ratio (HRadj) 2.59 995% CI 1.27, 5.29), P = 0.01], AZA maintenance [HRadj 2.20 (95% CI 1.01, 4.79), P = 0.05], PR [HRadj 3.9 (95% CI 1.03, 9.19), P = 0.01] and non-remission [HRadj 3.08 (95% CI 1.35, 11.3), P = 0.04] at 12 months were predictive of renal relapse. Renal relapse was significantly associated with advanced chronic kidney disease (stages 3-5) and end-stage kidney disease (17.9% vs 1.8%, P < 0.01). Furthermore, patients with renal relapse showed an increased incidence of infections (30.8% vs 10.7%, P = 0.02), osteopenia (38.5% vs 17.9%, P = 0.04) and hypertension (30.8% vs 7.1%, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Renal relapse is common among cLN, especially among young patients, and is associated with an increased incidence of morbidity and mortality. Attaining CR and the use of MMF appear to decrease the incidence of renal relapse.

Managing Lupus Nephritis in Children and Adolescents.

Lupus nephritis is an important manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus, which leads to chronic kidney disease, kidney failure, and can result in mortality. About 35%-60% of children with systemic lupus erythematosus develop kidney involvement. Over the past few decades, the outcome of patients with lupus nephritis has improved significantly with advances in immunosuppressive therapies and clinical management. Nonetheless, there is a paucity of high-level evidence to guide the management of childhood-onset lupus nephritis, because of the relatively small number of patients at each centre and also because children and adolescents are often excluded from clinical trials. Children and adults differ in more ways than just size, and there are remarkable differences between childhood- and adult-onset lupus nephritis in terms of disease severity, treatment efficacy, tolerance to medications and most importantly, psychosocial perspective. In this article, we review the 'art and science' of managing childhood-onset lupus nephritis, which has evolved in recent years, and highlight special considerations in this specific patient population.

Comparison of the Oral Calcimimetics Evocalcet and Cinacalcet in East Asian Patients on Hemodialysis with Secondary Hyperparathyroidism.

Introduction: Evocalcet is an oral calcimimetic agent with proven efficacy and safety in treating secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in Japanese patients on dialysis. Methods: This randomized, double-blind, intrapatient dose-adjustment, parallel-group, international multicenter study compared the efficacy and safety of evocalcet versus cinacalcet for 52 weeks in East Asian hemodialysis patients with SHPT. Results: In total, 203 and 200 patients were randomized to receive evocalcet or cinacalcet, respectively (overall, 70.1% had baseline intact parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels ≥500 pg/ml, with no between-group difference). Mean percentage changes in intact PTH levels from baseline were -34.7% and -30.2% in the evocalcet and cinacalcet groups at 52 weeks (between-group difference -4.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -13.1%, 4.3%, below the predefined 15% noninferiority margin). Overall, 67.3% and 58.7% of patients in the evocalcet and cinacalcet groups, respectively, achieved ≥30% decrease in intact PTH levels from baseline (between-group difference 8.6%; 95% CI -1.8%, 19.1%). No major safety concerns were observed. Gastrointestinal adverse events (AEs) were significantly less frequent with evocalcet compared with cinacalcet (33.5% vs. 50.5%, P = 0.001), whereas the incidence of hypocalcemia did not differ. Conclusion: Evocalcet might be a better alternative to cinacalcet for East Asian patients on hemodialysis with SHPT.

A PRoliferation-Inducing Ligand (APRIL) in the Pathogenesis of Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy: A Review of the Evidence.

A PRoliferation-Inducing Ligand (APRIL), the thirteenth member of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily, plays a key role in the regulation of activated B cells, the survival of long-lived plasma cells, and immunoglobulin (Ig) isotype class switching. Several lines of evidence have implicated APRIL in the pathogenesis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN). Globally, IgAN is the most common primary glomerulonephritis, and it can progress to end-stage kidney disease; yet, disease-modifying treatments for this condition have historically been lacking. The preliminary data in ongoing clinical trials indicate that APRIL inhibition can reduce proteinuria and slow the rate of kidney disease progression by acting at an upstream level in IgAN pathogenesis. In this review, we examine what is known about the physiologic roles of APRIL and evaluate the experimental and epidemiological evidence describing how these normal biologic processes are thought to be subverted in IgAN. The weight of the preclinical, clinical, and genetic data supporting a key role for APRIL in IgAN has galvanized pharmacologic research, and several anti-APRIL drug candidates have now entered clinical development for IgAN. Herein, we present an overview of the clinical results to date. Finally, we explore where more research and evidence are needed to transform potential therapies into clinical benefits for patients with IgAN.

Humoral and cellular immunity against different SARS-CoV-2 variants in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients are at higher risk of severe COVID-19. Humoral and cellular immunity from prior infection or vaccination are important for protection, but the neutralizing antibody (nAb) response against SARS-CoV-2 variants is impaired. We investigated the variant-specific nAb and T cell immunity among CKD patients. Adult CKD patients were recruited between August and October 2022. nAb against the SARS-CoV-2 (ancestral strains and four Omicron sublineages) and T cell response were measured using the live virus neutralization assay and interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). The correlation between nAb/T-cell response and subsequent infection after recruitment were also determined. Among the 88 recruited patients, 95.5% had prior infection or had completed the primary vaccine series. However, only 77.3% had detectable nAb against at least one SARS-CoV-2 strains, 59.1% tested positive in IGRA, and 52.3% had detectable nAb and tested positive in the IGRA. The nAb geometic mean titers (GMTs) against XBB.1, BA.5 and BA.2.3.20 were significantly lower than those against BA.2 and ancestral strain. Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with elevated nAb and T cell response. More kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) showed absent nAb and T cell response (36.8% vs. 10.1%), despite a higher prevalence of vaccine booster in this population (94.7% vs. 50.7%). Lower levels of nAb titer and T cell response were significantly associated with subsequent infection. A considerable proportion of CKD patients, especially KTRs, showed absence of humoral and cellular protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2. Strategies to improve immunogenicity in this population are urgently needed.

Endothelial cell activation and glycocalyx shedding - potential as biomarkers in patients with lupus nephritis.

Lupus nephritis (LN) is a common and severe manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus and an important cause of acute and chronic kidney injury. Early diagnosis of LN and preventing relapses are key to preserving renal reserve. However, due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease, clinical management remains challenging. Kidney biopsy remains the gold standard for confirming the diagnosis of LN and subsequent assessment of kidney histopathology, but it is invasive and cannot be repeated frequently. Current clinical indicators of kidney function such as proteinuria and serum creatinine level are non-specific and do not accurately reflect histopathological changes, while anti-dsDNA antibody and C3 levels reflect immunological status but not kidney injury. Identification of novel and specific biomarkers for LN is prerequisite to improve management. Renal function deterioration is associated with changes in the endothelial glycocalyx, a delicate gel-like layer located at the interface between the endothelium and bloodstream. Inflammation induces endothelial cell activation and shedding of glycocalyx constituents into the circulation. This review discusses the potential role of soluble glycocalyx components as biomarkers of active LN, especially in patients in whom conventional serological and biochemical markers do not appear helpful.

Risk and Factors associated with disease manifestations in systemic lupus erythematosus - lupus nephritis (RIFLE-LN): a ten-year risk prediction strategy derived from a cohort of 1652 patients.

Objectives: Lupus nephritis (LN) remains one of the most severe manifestations in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Onset and overall LN risk among SLE patients remains considerably difficult to predict. Utilizing a territory-wide longitudinal cohort of over 10 years serial follow-up data, we developed and validated a risk stratification strategy to predict LN risk among Chinese SLE patients - Risk and Factors associated with disease manifestations in systemic Lupus Erythematosus - Lupus Nephritis (RIFLE-LN). Methods: Demographic and longitudinal data including autoantibody profiles, clinical manifestations, major organ involvement, LN biopsy results and outcomes were documented. Association analysis was performed to identify factors associated with LN. Regression modelling was used to develop a prediction model for 10-year risk of LN and thereafter validated. Results: A total of 1652 patients were recruited: 1382 patients were assigned for training and validation of the RIFLE-LN model; while 270 were assigned for testing. The median follow-up duration was 21 years. In the training and validation cohort, 845 (61%) of SLE patients developed LN. Cox regression and log rank test showed significant positive association between male sex, age of SLE onset and anti-dsDNA positivity. These factors were thereafter used to develop RIFLE-LN. The algorithm was tested in 270 independent patients and showed good performance (AUC = 0·70). Conclusion: By using male sex, anti-dsDNA positivity, age of SLE onset and SLE duration; RIFLE-LN can predict LN among Chinese SLE patients with good performance. We advocate its potential utility in guiding clinical management and disease monitoring. Further validation studies in independent cohorts are required.

Clinico-pathological correlations and outcomes of de novo glomerular diseases in patients after haematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Background: Various glomerular pathologies have been reported in patients who have undergone haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), but the data on clinico-pathological correlations and clinical outcome remain limited. Methods: We analysed the clinical and histopathological data of patients who had biopsy-proven de novo glomerular diseases after HSCT since 1999. Results: A total of 2204 patients underwent HSCT during the period 1999-2021, and 31 patients (1.4%) developed de novo glomerular diseases after a mean duration of 2.8 ± 2.7 years after HSCT. Fifteen of these patients (48.4%) had graft-versus-host-disease prior to or concomitant with renal abnormalities. Proteinuria and eGFR at the time of kidney biopsy were 4.1 ± 5.3 g/day and 50.8 ± 25.4 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. Kidney histopathologic diagnoses included thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) (38.7%), membranous nephropathy (MN) (25.8%), mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis (12.9%), minimal change disease (9.7%), focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (9.7%) and membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (3.2%). Immunosuppressive treatment was given to patients who presented with nephrotic-range proteinuria and/or acute kidney injury, while renin-angiotensin-aldosterone blockade was given to all patients with proteinuria ≥1 g/day, with complete and partial response rates of 54.8% and 19.4%, respectively. One patient with TMA progressed to end-stage kidney disease after 24 weeks, and two patients, one with TMA and one with MN, (6.4%) progressed to chronic kidney disease (CKD) Stage ≥3. Kidney and patient survival rates were 96.6% and 83.5%, respectively, at 5 years. Conclusion: De novo glomerular diseases with diverse histopathologic manifestations affect 1.4% of patients after HSCT, and approximately 10% develop progressive CKD.

Change in Albuminuria and GFR Slope as Joint Surrogate End Points for Kidney Failure: Implications for Phase 2 Clinical Trials in CKD.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Changes in albuminuria and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression, and studies have demonstrated that each is associated with treatment effects on clinical end points. In this study, the authors sought to develop a conceptual framework that combines both surrogate end points to better predict treatment effects on clinical end points in Phase 2 trials. The results demonstrate that information from the combined treatment effects on albuminuria and GFR slope improves the prediction of treatment effects on the clinical end point for Phase 2 trials with sample sizes between 100 and 200 patients and duration of follow-up ranging from 1 to 2 years. These findings may help inform design of clinical trials for interventions aimed at slowing CKD progression. BACKGROUND: Changes in log urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression. Whether combining these surrogate end points might strengthen inferences about clinical benefit is unknown. METHODS: Using Bayesian meta-regressions across 41 randomized trials of CKD progression, we characterized the combined relationship between the treatment effects on the clinical end point (sustained doubling of serum creatinine, GFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , or kidney failure) and treatment effects on UACR change and chronic GFR slope after 3 months. We applied the results to the design of Phase 2 trials on the basis of UACR change and chronic GFR slope in combination. RESULTS: Treatment effects on the clinical end point were strongly associated with the combination of treatment effects on UACR change and chronic slope. The posterior median meta-regression coefficients for treatment effects were -0.41 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, -0.64 to -0.17) per 1 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year for the treatment effect on GFR slope and -0.06 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, -0.90 to 0.77) for the treatment effect on UACR change. The predicted probability of clinical benefit when considering both surrogates was determined primarily by estimated treatment effects on UACR when sample size was small (approximately 60 patients per treatment arm) and follow-up brief (approximately 1 year), with the importance of GFR slope increasing for larger sample sizes and longer follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In Phase 2 trials of CKD with sample sizes of 100-200 patients per arm and follow-up between 1 and 2 years, combining information from treatment effects on UACR change and GFR slope improved the prediction of treatment effects on clinical end points.