Serum sodium predicts prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND: End-stage liver disease is often complicated by hyponatremia. Cirrhotic patients with hyponatremia admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) have high mortality rates. This study analyzed the outcomes of critically ill cirrhotic patients and identified the prognostic value of serum sodium concentration. METHODS: One hundred twenty-six consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU of a tertiary center during a 1.5-year period were enrolled in this study. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables on the first day of ICU admission were prospectively recorded for post hoc analysis. RESULTS: Overall hospital mortality was 65.1%. Comparing with serum sodium >135 mmol/L, patients with serum sodium 135 mmol/L versus those with serum sodium

Outcome predictors and new score of critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute renal failure.

BACKGROUND: End-stage liver disease is often complicated by renal function disturbances. Cirrhotic patients with acute renal failure admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) have high mortality rates. This work seeks to identify specific predictors of hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute renal failure. METHODS: A total of 111 patients with cirrhosis and acute renal failure were admitted to ICU from March 2003 to February 2005. Twenty-six demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were prospectively gathered as predictors of survival on the first day of ICU admission. RESULTS: The overall hospital mortality rate was 81.1%. The univariate analysis identified 11 of the 32 variables as prognostically valuable. The multiple logistic regression analysis (excluding five scoring systems) indicates that the mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum bilirubin, respiratory failure and sepsis on the first day in ICU are significantly related to prognosis. The best Youden index (sensitivity + specificity - 1) yields cutoff points of 80 MAP (in mmHg) and 80 serum bilirubin (in micromol/L) (or 4.7 mg/dL) and indicates acute respiratory failure and sepsis. A simple model for mortality is developed on the basis of these four readily available parameters on Day 1 of ICU admission. The new score (MBRS score: MAP + bilirubin + respiratory failure + sepsis) displays an excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.898 +/- 0.031, P < 0.001). The mortality rate exceeds 90% when the MBRS (MAP + bilirubin + respiratory failure + sepsis) score is 2 or higher. CONCLUSION: The MBRS score is a straightforward, reproducible and easily adopted evaluative tool with good prognostic abilities, which generates objective data for patient families and physicians and supplements a clinical judgment of prognosis.

RIFLE classification can predict short-term prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients.

OBJECTIVE: End-stage liver disease is frequently complicated by renal function disturbances. Cirrhotic patients with renal failure admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) have high mortality rates. This study analyzed the outcomes of critically ill cirrhotic patients and identified the association between prognosis and RIFLE (risk of renal failure, injury to kidney, failure of kidney function, loss of kidney function, and end-stage renal failure) classification, in comparison with other five scoring systems. DESIGN: Prospective, clinical study. SETTING: Ten-bed specialized hepatogastroenterology ICU in a university hospital in Taiwan. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and thirty-four cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted to ICU during a 1.5-year period. INTERVENTIONS: Thirty-two demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were analyzed as predictors of survival. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Overall hospital mortality was 65.7%. There was a progressive and significant increase (chi2 for trend: p<0.001) in mortality based on RIFLE classification severity. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that RIFLE classification and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score on the first day of ICU admission were independent risk factors for hospital mortality. By using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), the RIFLE category and SOFA both indicated a good discriminative power (AUROC 0.837+/-0.036 and 0.917+/-0.025; p<0.001). Cumulative survival rates at 6-month follow-up differed significantly (p<0.05) for non-ARF vs. RIFLE-R, RIFLE-I, and RIFLE-F. CONCLUSION: Both SOFA and RIFLE category showed high discriminative power in predicting hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis. The RIFLE classification is a simple and easily applied evaluative tool with good prognostic abilities.

Role of serum creatinine and prognostic scoring systems in assessing hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: End-stage liver disease is frequently complicated by episodes of gastrointestinal hemorrhage that are often associated with multiple organ dysfunction and require intensive care. This study aimed to identify specific predictors of hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, and compare the prediction accuracy of the Child-Pugh score and two illness severity scoring systems frequently used for intensive care unit (ICU) patients. METHODS: 76 patients with liver cirrhosis and upper gastrointestinal bleeding were admitted to the ICU from April 2001 to March 2002. In addition, 27 demographic, clinical and laboratory variables, including parameters assessing liver and renal function and systemic hemodynamics, were analyzed as survival predicators. Finally, information required, calculating the Child-Pugh, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score on the 1st day of ICU admission, was gathered prospectively. RESULTS: Overall, hospital mortality was 68.4%. Liver disease was generally attributed to hepatitis B viral infection. Furthermore, multiple logistic regression analysis showed that mean arterial pressure (MAP), Child-Pugh points, and serum creatinine (Cr) were significantly related to prognosis. The SOFA and APACHE III models displayed good areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. CONCLUSION: The rise of serum Cr levels above 1.5 mg/dL is common, and indicates a poor prognosis for critically ill cirrhotic patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. SOFA is a straightforward approach with excellent prognostic abilities for this homogeneous patient subset.