Dynamic learning of individual-level suicidal ideation trajectories to enhance mental health care.

There has recently been an increase in ongoing patient-report routine outcome monitoring for individuals within clinical care, which has corresponded to increased longitudinal information about an individual. However, many models that are aimed at clinical practice have difficulty fully incorporating this information. This is in part due to the difficulty in dealing with the irregularly time-spaced observations that are common in clinical data. Consequently, we built individual-level continuous-time trajectory models of suicidal ideation for a clinical population (N = 585) with data collected via a digital platform. We demonstrate how such models predict an individual's level and variability of future suicide ideation, with implications for the frequency that individuals may need to be observed. These individual-level predictions provide a more personalised understanding than other predictive methods and have implications for enhanced measurement-based care.

EMPOWERED trial: protocol for a randomised control trial of digitally supported, highly personalised and measurement-based care to improve functional outcomes in young people with mood disorders.

OBJECTIVES: Many adolescents and young adults with emerging mood disorders do not achieve substantial improvements in education, employment, or social function after receiving standard youth mental health care. We have developed a new model of care referred to as 'highly personalised and measurement-based care' (HP&MBC). HP&MBC involves repeated assessment of multidimensional domains of morbidity to enable continuous and personalised clinical decision-making. Although measurement-based care is common in medical disease management, it is not a standard practice in mental health. This clinical effectiveness trial tests whether HP&MBC, supported by continuous digital feedback, delivers better functional improvements than standard care and digital support. METHOD AND ANALYSIS: This controlled implementation trial is a PROBE study (Prospective, Randomised, Open, Blinded End-point) that comprises a multisite 24-month, assessor-blinded, follow-up study of 1500 individuals aged 15-25 years who present for mental health treatment. Eligible participants will be individually randomised (1:1) to 12 months of HP&MBC or standardised clinical care. The primary outcome measure is social and occupational functioning 12 months after trial entry, assessed by the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale. Clinical and social outcomes for all participants will be monitored for a further 12 months after cessation of active care. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This clinical trial has been reviewed and approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Sydney Local Health District (HREC Approval Number: X22-0042 & 2022/ETH00725, Protocol ID: BMC-YMH-003-2018, protocol version: V.3, 03/08/2022). Research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, presentations at scientific conferences, and to user and advocacy groups. Participant data will be deidentified. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12622000882729.

Digital Application of Clinical Staging to Support Stratification in Youth Mental Health Services: Validity and Reliability Study.

BACKGROUND: As the demand for youth mental health care continues to rise, managing wait times and reducing treatment delays are key challenges to delivering timely and quality care. Clinical staging is a heuristic model for youth mental health that can stratify care allocation according to individuals' risk of illness progression. The application of staging has been traditionally limited to trained clinicians yet leveraging digital technologies to apply clinical staging could increase the scalability and usability of this model in services. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to validate a digital algorithm to accurately differentiate young people at lower and higher risk of developing mental disorders. METHODS: We conducted a study with a cohort comprising 131 young people, aged between 16 and 25 years, who presented to youth mental health services in Australia between November 2018 and March 2021. Expert psychiatrists independently assigned clinical stages (either stage 1a or stage 1b+), which were then compared to the digital algorithm's allocation based on a multidimensional self-report questionnaire. RESULTS: Of the 131 participants, the mean age was 20.3 (SD 2.4) years, and 72% (94/131) of them were female. Ninety-one percent of clinical stage ratings were concordant between the digital algorithm and the experts' ratings, with a substantial interrater agreement (κ=0.67; P<.001). The algorithm demonstrated an accuracy of 91% (95% CI 86%-95%; P=.03), a sensitivity of 80%, a specificity of 93%, and an F1-score of 73%. Of the concordant ratings, 16 young people were allocated to stage 1a, while 103 were assigned to stage 1b+. Among the 12 discordant cases, the digital algorithm allocated a lower stage (stage 1a) to 8 participants compared to the experts. These individuals had significantly milder symptoms of depression (P<.001) and anxiety (P<.001) compared to those with concordant stage 1b+ ratings. CONCLUSIONS: This novel digital algorithm is sufficiently robust to be used as an adjunctive decision support tool to stratify care and assist with demand management in youth mental health services. This work could transform care pathways and expedite care allocation for those in the early stages of common anxiety and depressive disorders. Between 11% and 27% of young people seeking care may benefit from low-intensity, self-directed, or brief interventions. Findings from this study suggest the possibility of redirecting clinical capacity to focus on individuals in stage 1b+ for further assessment and intervention.