Robustly estimating the demographic contribution of immigration: Simulation, sensitivity analysis and seals.

Identifying important demographic drivers of population dynamics is fundamental for understanding life-history evolution and implementing effective conservation measures. Integrated population models (IPMs) coupled with transient life table response experiments (tLTREs) allow ecologists to quantify the contributions of demographic parameters to observed population change. While IPMs can estimate parameters that are not estimable using any data source alone, for example, immigration, the estimated contribution of such parameters to population change is prone to bias. Currently, it is unclear when robust conclusions can be drawn from them. We sought to understand the drivers of a rebounding southern elephant seal population on Marion Island using the IPM-tLTRE framework, applied to count and mark-recapture data on 9500 female seals over nearly 40 years. Given the uncertainty around IPM-tLTRE estimates of immigration, we also aimed to investigate the utility of simulation and sensitivity analyses as general tools for evaluating the robustness of conclusions obtained in this framework. Using a Bayesian IPM and tLTRE analysis, we quantified the contributions of survival, immigration and population structure to population growth. We assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to choice of multivariate priors on immigration and other vital rates. To do so we make a novel application of Gaussian process priors, in comparison with commonly used shrinkage priors. Using simulation, we assessed our model's ability to estimate the demographic contribution of immigration under different levels of temporal variance in immigration. The tLTRE analysis suggested that adult survival and immigration were the most important drivers of recent population growth. While the contribution of immigration was sensitive to prior choices, the estimate was consistently large. Furthermore, our simulation study validated the importance of immigration by showing that our estimate of its demographic contribution is unlikely to result as a biased overestimate. Our results highlight the connectivity between distant populations of southern elephant seals, illustrating that female dispersal can be important in regulating the abundance of local populations even when natal site fidelity is high. More generally, we demonstrate how robust ecological conclusions may be obtained about immigration from the IPM-tLTRE framework, by combining sensitivity analysis and simulation.

Recombinant multimeric dog allergen prevents airway hyperresponsiveness in a model of asthma marked by vigorous TH 2 and TH 17 cell responses.

BACKGROUND: Allergy to dogs affects around 10% of the population in developed countries. Immune therapy of allergic patients with dog allergen extracts has shown limited therapeutic benefit. METHODS: We established a mouse model of dog allergy by repeatedly administering dog dander and epithelium extracts via the intranasal route. We also assessed the efficacy of a recombinant multimeric protein containing Can f 1, f 2, f 4 and f 6 in preventing inflammatory responses to dog extracts. RESULTS: Repeated inhalation of dog extracts induced infiltration of the airways by TH 2 cells, eosinophils and goblet cells, reminiscent of the house dust mite (HDM) model of asthma. Dog extracts also induced robust airway hyperresponsiveness and promoted TH 17 cell responses, which was associated with a high neutrophilic infiltration of the airways. scRNA-Seq analysis of T helper cells in the airways pinpointed a unique gene signature for TH 17 cells. Analysis of T-cell receptors depicted a high frequency of clones that were shared between TH 17, TH 2 and suppressive Treg cells, indicative of a common differentiation trajectory for these subsets. Importantly, sublingual administration of multimeric Can f 1-2-4-6 protein prior to sensitization reduced airway hyperresponsiveness and type 2-mediated inflammation in this model. CONCLUSION: Dog allergen extracts induce robust TH 2 and TH 17 cell-mediated responses in mice. Recombinant Can f 1-2-4-6 can induce tolerance to complex dog allergen extracts.

Single-cell analysis pinpoints distinct populations of cytotoxic CD4+ T cells and an IL-10+CD109+ TH2 cell population in nasal polyps.

Chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) is characterized by a chronic inflammatory process often associated with comorbid asthma. In this study, we analyzed the transcriptomes of single T helper (TH) cells from nasal polyps of patients with CRSwNP and validated these findings using multiparameter flow cytometry. Polyp tissue contained suppressive T regulatory (Treg) cells, TH2 cells, type 2 innate lymphoid cells, and three transcriptionally distinct subsets of cytotoxic CD4+ T cells (CD4+ CTL). GATA3 expression was a feature of polyp Treg cells, whereas TH2 cells highly expressed TCN1, CD200R, and HPGDS and were enriched for genes involved in lipid metabolism. Only a portion of polyp TH2 cells expressed the prostaglandin D2 receptor CRTH2, whereas a subpopulation of CD109+CRTH2- TH2 cells expressed mRNA for common inhibitor receptors including LAG3 and TIM3 and produced IL-10. Together, we resolved the complexity of TH cells in patients with CRSwNP, identifying several distinct clusters of CD4+ CTL and a population of CD109+CRTH2- TH2 cells with putative regulatory potential.

Multianalyte serology in home-sampled blood enables an unbiased assessment of the immune response against SARS-CoV-2.

Serological testing is essential to curb the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most assays are still limited to single analytes and samples collected within healthcare. Thus, we establish a multianalyte and multiplexed approach to reliably profile IgG and IgM levels against several versions of SARS-CoV-2 proteins (S, RBD, N) in home-sampled dried blood spots (DBS). We analyse DBS collected during spring of 2020 from 878 random and undiagnosed individuals from the population in Stockholm, Sweden, and use classification approaches to estimate an accumulated seroprevalence of 12.5% (95% CI: 10.3%-14.7%). This includes 5.4% of the samples being IgG+IgM+ against several SARS-CoV-2 proteins, as well as 2.1% being IgG-IgM+ and 5.0% being IgG+IgM- for the virus' S protein. Subjects classified as IgG+ for several SARS-CoV-2 proteins report influenza-like symptoms more frequently than those being IgG+ for only the S protein (OR = 6.1; p < 0.001). Among all seropositive cases, 30% are asymptomatic. Our strategy enables an accurate individual-level and multiplexed assessment of antibodies in home-sampled blood, assisting our understanding about the undiagnosed seroprevalence and diversity of the immune response against the coronavirus.