Testing for effects of growth rate on isotope trophic discrimination factors and evaluating the performance of Bayesian stable isotope mixing models experimentally: A moment of truth?

Discerning assimilated diets of wild animals using stable isotopes is well established where potential dietary items in food webs are isotopically distinct. With the advent of mixing models, and Bayesian extensions of such models (Bayesian Stable Isotope Mixing Models, BSIMMs), statistical techniques available for these efforts have been rapidly increasing. The accuracy with which BSIMMs quantify diet, however, depends on several factors including uncertainty in tissue discrimination factors (TDFs; Δ) and identification of appropriate error structures. Whereas performance of BSIMMs has mostly been evaluated with simulations, here we test the efficacy of BSIMMs by raising domestic broiler chicks (Gallus gallus domesticus) on four isotopically distinct diets under controlled environmental conditions, ideal for evaluating factors that affect TDFs and testing how BSIMMs allocate individual birds to diets that vary in isotopic similarity. For both liver and feather tissues, δ13C and δ 15N values differed among dietary groups. Δ13C of liver, but not feather, was negatively related to the rate at which individuals gained body mass. For Δ15N, we identified effects of dietary group, sex, and tissue type, as well as an interaction between sex and tissue type, with females having higher liver Δ15N relative to males. For both tissues, BSIMMs allocated most chicks to correct dietary groups, especially for models using combined TDFs rather than diet-specific TDFs, and those applying a multiplicative error structure. These findings provide new information on how biological processes affect TDFs and confirm that adequately accounting for variability in consumer isotopes is necessary to optimize performance of BSIMMs. Moreover, results demonstrate experimentally that these models reliably characterize consumed diets when appropriately parameterized.

Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of waterfowl productivity are synchronous across species, space, and time.

Knowledge of interspecific and spatiotemporal variation in demography-environment relationships is key for understanding the population dynamics of sympatric species and developing multispecies conservation strategies. We used hierarchical random-effects models to examine interspecific and spatial variation in annual productivity in six migratory ducks (i.e., American wigeon [Mareca americana], blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], gadwall [Mareca strepera], green-winged teal [Anas crecca], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos] and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) across six distinct ecostrata in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. We tested whether breeding habitat conditions (seasonal pond counts, agricultural intensification, and grassland acreage) or cross-seasonal effects (indexed by flooded rice acreage in primary wintering areas) better explained variation in the proportion of juveniles captured during late summer banding. The proportion of juveniles (i.e., productivity) was highly variable within species and ecostrata throughout 1961-2019 and generally declined through time in blue-winged teal, gadwall, mallard, pintail, and wigeon, but there was no support for a trend in green-winged teal. Productivity in Canadian ecostrata declined with increasing agricultural intensification and increased with increasing pond counts. We also found a strong cross-seasonal effect, whereby more flooded rice hectares during winter resulted in higher subsequent productivity. Our results suggest highly consistent environmental and anthropogenic effects on waterfowl productivity across species and space. Our study advances our understanding of current year and cross-seasonal effects on duck productivity across a suite of species and at finer spatial scales, which could help managers better target working-lands conservation programs on both breeding and wintering areas. We encourage other researchers to evaluate environmental drivers of population dynamics among species in a single modeling framework for a deeper understanding of whether conservation plans should be generalized or customized given limited financial resources.

Health Assessments of Koalas after Wildfire: A Temporal Comparison of Rehabilitated and Non-Rescued Resident Individuals.

Many koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) required rehabilitation after the 2019/20 Australian megafires. Little is known about how the post-release health of rehabilitated koalas compares to non-rescued resident koalas. We evaluated health parameters in rehabilitated koalas and resident koalas in burnt and unburnt habitat in southern New South Wales, Australia. Health checks were undertaken within six weeks of fire (rehabilitated group), 5-9 months post-fire and 12-16 months post-fire. Body condition improved significantly over time in rehabilitated koalas, with similar condition between all groups at 12-16 months. Rehabilitated koalas therefore gained body condition at similar rates to koalas who remained and survived in the wild. The prevalence of Chlamydia pecorum was also similar between groups and timepoints, suggesting wildfire and rehabilitation did not exacerbate disease in this population. While there was some variation in measured serum biochemistry and haematology parameters between groups and timepoints, most were within normal reference ranges. Our findings show that koalas were generally healthy at the time of release and when recaptured nine months later. Landscapes in the Monaro region exhibiting a mosaic of burn severity can support koalas, and rehabilitated koala health is not compromised by returning them to burnt habitats 4-6 months post-fire.

Spatial variation in the association between agricultural activities and bird communities in Canada.

Agriculture is one the main drivers of bird decline in both Europe and North America. While it is clear that agricultural practices and changes in the rural landscape directly and indirectly affect bird communities, we still do not know the extent to which these impacts might change across broad spatial and temporal scales. To address this question, we combined information on agricultural activities with occurrence and abundance of 358 bird species across five time periods spanning 20 years in Canada. As a proxy for agricultural impact, we used a combined index that included different agricultural metrics, such as cropland and tillage area and area treated with pesticides. We found that agriculture impact was negatively associated with bird diversity and evenness across all 20 years studied, but these associations seemed to vary by region. We found good support for an overall negative association between agriculture impact and bird diversity and evenness in the Eastern and Atlantic regions but weaker associations in the Prairies and Pacific. These findings suggest that agricultural activities result in bird communities that are less diverse and disproportionately benefit certain species. The spatial variation in the impact of agriculture on bird diversity and evenness we observed is likely a result of regional differences in the native vegetation, the type of crops and commodities produced, the historical context of agriculture, as well as the native bird community and the extent of their association with open habitat. Thus, our work provides support for the idea that the on-going agricultural impact on bird communities, while largely negative, is not uniform, and can vary across broad geographic regions.

Extensive regional variation in the phenology of insects and their response to temperature across North America.

Climate change models often assume similar responses to temperatures across the range of a species, but local adaptation or phenotypic plasticity can lead plants and animals to respond differently to temperature in different parts of their range. To date, there have been few tests of this assumption at the scale of continents, so it is unclear if this is a large-scale problem. Here, we examined the assumption that insect taxa show similar responses to temperature at 96 sites in grassy habitats across North America. We sampled insects with Malaise traps during 2019-2021 (N = 1041 samples) and examined the biomass of insects in relation to temperature and time of season. Our samples mostly contained Diptera (33%), Lepidoptera (19%), Hymenoptera (18%), and Coleoptera (10%). We found strong regional differences in the phenology of insects and their response to temperature, even within the same taxonomic group, habitat type, and time of season. For example, the biomass of nematoceran flies increased across the season in the central part of the continent, but it only showed a small increase in the Northeast and a seasonal decline in the Southeast and West. At a smaller scale, insect biomass at different traps operating on the same days was correlated up to ~75 km apart. Large-scale geographic and phenological variation in insect biomass and abundance has not been studied well, and it is a major source of controversy in previous analyses of insect declines that have aggregated studies from different locations and time periods. Our study illustrates that large-scale predictions about changes in insect populations, and their causes, will need to incorporate regional and taxonomic differences in the response to temperature.

Pre-fledging quality and recruitment in an aerial insectivore reflect dynamics of insects, wetlands and climate.

Wetland systems, including shallow palustrine ponds, are hotspots for emergent aquatic insects but are globally threatened by land-use practices and climate change. Loss of insects is hypothesized as a key driver of population declines in aerial insectivores, but studies of climate-driven fluctuations in pond abundance during wet-dry periods and aerial insects on nestling quality and apparent recruitment are lacking. Using tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) data spanning 14-28 years we evaluated: (1) whether nestling quality based on pre-fledging (~ 12 days old) body mass changed over the time series; (2) how annual estimates of aerial insect biomass and variability, temperature, and pond abundance influenced nestling mass; and (3) whether the annual number of recruits produced was related to the annual mean mass of nestlings, aerial insects, and pond abundance in their year of hatching. Average nestling body mass varied annually but no long-term temporal trends were detected. Nestlings were heavier when raised during periods of stable insect biomass, warmer temperatures, and higher pond abundance. Pond abundance consistently had strong effects on nestling mass and inter-annual apparent recruitment, suggesting that this metric provides a complementary index of either higher prey abundance or higher-quality aquatic prey. Overall, pre-fledging quality and annual recruitment of nestling tree swallows reflects dynamic interannual changes in climate, pond availability, and aerial insect food supply. Our findings further suggest the abundance of ponds in this semi-arid prairie landscape is likely a strong predictor of regional population stability in tree swallows and possibly other ecologically similar species.

Plasticity in timing of avian breeding in response to spring temperature differs between early and late nesting species.

Plasticity for breeding dates may influence population vulnerability to climate change via phenological mismatch between an organism's life cycle requirements and resource availability in occupied environments. Some life history traits may constrain plasticity, however there have been remarkably few comparisons of how closely-related species, differing in key traits, respond to common phenology gradients. We compared population- and individual-level plasticity in clutch initiation dates (CID) in response to spring temperature among five duck species with early- to late-season nesting life histories. Plasticity was strongest in females of the earliest breeding species (common goldeneye [Bucephala clangula], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], and gadwall [Mareca strepera]), whereas late-nesting lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) and white-winged scoter (Melanitta fusca deglandi) did not respond. These results contrast with previous work in other bird families that suggested late-breeders are generally more flexible. Nevertheless, late-breeding species exhibited annual variation in mean CID, suggesting response to other environmental factors unrelated to spring temperature. Goldeneye and gadwall females varied in their strength of individual plasticity ('individual × environment' interactions) and goldeneye and scoter females showed evidence of interannual repeatability of CID. Fitness consequences of CID plasticity in response to spring phenology, including trophic mechanisms and population consequences, warrant investigation.

Partial and complete dependency among data sets has minimal consequence on estimates from integrated population models.

Integrated population models (IPMs) are widely used to combine disparate data sets in joint analysis to better understand population dynamics and provide guidance for conservation activities. An often-cited assumption of IPMs is independence among component data sets within the combined likelihood. Dependency among data sets should lead to underestimation of variance and bias because individuals contribute data to more than one data set. In practice, studied individuals often occur in multiple data sets in IPMs (i.e., overlap), which is one way for the independence assumption to be violated. Such cases have the potential to dissuade practitioners and limit application of IPMs to solve emerging ecological problems. We assessed precision and bias of demographic rates estimated from IPMs using a complete gradient (0-100%) of overlap among data sets, wide ranges in demographic rates (e.g., survival 0.1-0.8) and sample sizes (100-1,200 individuals) and variable data sources. We compared results from our simulations with those from IPMs constructed using empirical data on tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) where data sets either had complete overlap or included different individuals. Contrary to previous investigators, we found no substantive bias or uncertainty in any demographic rate from IPMs derived from data sets with complete overlap. While variability in demographic rates was greater at low sample sizes (i.e., low capture, recapture, and survey probabilities), there were negligible differences in the posterior mean or root mean square error of demographic rates among IPMs with strong dependence vs. complete independence among data sets. Our simulations suggest IPMs can be designed using only capture-recapture data or harvest and capture-recovery data where population estimates are obtained from the same data as survival and productivity data. While we encourage researchers to carefully consider the modeling approach best suited for their data sets, our results suggest that dependence among data sets does not generally compromise IPM estimates. Thus, violation of the independence assumption should not dissuade researchers from the application of IPMs in ecological research.

The relative contribution of individual quality and changing climate as drivers of lifetime reproductive success in a short-lived avian species.

Animal populations are influenced strongly by fluctuations in weather conditions, but long-term fitness costs are rarely explored, especially in short-lived avian species. We evaluated the relative contributions of individual characteristics and environmental conditions to lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of female tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) from two populations breeding in contrasting environments and geographies, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, Canada. Female swallows achieved higher LRS by breeding early in the season and producing more fledglings. Other measures of female quality had virtually no influence on LRS. Genetic factors did not predict LRS, as there was no correlation between life-history components for sister pairs nor between mothers and their daughters. Instead, climate variability-indexed by spring pond density (i.e., abundance of wetland basins holding water) during years when females bred-had strong positive effects on female LRS in more arid Saskatchewan but only weak positive effects of moisture conditions were detected in wetter British Columbia. Overall, several life history trait correlates of LRS were similar between populations, but local environmental factors experienced by individuals while breeding produced large differences in LRS. Consequently, variable and extreme environmental conditions associated with changing climate are predicted to influence individual fitness of distinct populations within a species' range.

The distribution and abundance of an unusual resource for koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in a sodium-poor environment.

Environmentally available sodium tends to decrease with increasing elevation, and sodium resources in these sodium-poor environments are critical for the survival of herbivores. Eucalypt leaves in the subalpine Monaro region of NSW, Australia contain much less sodium than eucalypt leaves at lower elevations, and subalpine koalas obtain this much needed resource by eating the bark from some Eucalyptus mannifera trees. To better understand the availability of salty-barked trees, we searched for evidence of koala bark chewing at 100 randomly generated locations in the region. We found 318 E. mannifera trees with koala chew marks. We also analysed sodium concentrations in the bark of three unchewed E. mannifera trees from each site to determine whether there were trees with high bark sodium content that had not yet been utilized by koalas. Although 90% of unchewed trees had sodium concentrations less than 225.4 mg.kg-1 DM, some unchewed trees contained high sodium concentrations (up to 1213.1 mg.kg-1 DM). From the random survey, we can extrapolate that 11% of trees in this area have bark sodium above 300 mg.kg-1 DM, which is based on the concentration of bark sodium observed in at least moderately chewed trees. We would expect to find 0.24 of these trees per 200 m2, or 720,000 salty-barked trees in the 30 km by 20 km study area. Bark chewing by koalas is widespread in the area, and trees with salty bark are more common than initially thought. We discuss correlations with the occurrence of salty-barked trees and other landscape attributes; however, questions remain about why some E. mannifera trees have much more bark sodium than others. Studies such as this one should be expanded to identify sodium resources and their availability for other herbivorous species, since many are predicted to move to higher elevations in response to climate change.

Reproductive consequences of climate variability in migratory birds: evidence for species-specific responses to spring phenology and cross-seasonal effects.

Climate change is altering global temperature and precipitation regimes, and the ability of species to respond to these changes could have serious implications for population dynamics. Flexible species may adjust breeding dates in response to advances in spring phenology. Furthermore, in migratory bird species, conditions experienced during the non-breeding season may have cross-seasonal effects during the subsequent breeding season. We evaluated species-specific responses to antecedent non-breeding (winter) and current breeding (spring) conditions. We used a data set composed of 21,230 duck nests from 164 sites in the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region, 1993-2011, to determine how environmental conditions influenced timing of nesting and subsequent nest survival in eight duck species representing varying life-histories. We tested how species responded in timing of nesting and nest survival, respectively, to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions experienced during the preceding non-breeding season (winter; Dec-Feb), and spring (Mar-Jun) temperature and moisture conditions on the breeding grounds. Ducks tended to nest earlier in warmer springs; however, in El Niño winters, with warmer spring temperatures, nesting tended to be later. We did not find evidence for direct effects of environmental variables on nest survival; however, evidence of indirect effects of winter conditions on nest survival for some species via strong direct effects on timing of nesting provides new insights into mechanisms for cross-seasonal effects on reproductive success.

Land-use change increases climatic vulnerability of migratory birds: Insights from integrated population modelling.

Knowledge of land-use patterns that could affect animal population resiliency or vulnerability to environmental threats such as climate change is essential, yet the interactive effects of land use and climate on demography across space and time can be difficult to study. This is particularly true for migratory species, which rely on different landscapes throughout the year. Unlike most North American migratory waterfowl, populations of northern pintails (Anas acuta; hereafter pintails) have not recovered since the 1980s despite extended periods of abundant flooded wetlands (i.e. ponds). The mechanisms and drivers involved in this discrepancy remain poorly understood. While pintails are similar to other ducks in their dependence on ponds throughout their annual cycle, their extensive use of croplands for nesting differentiates them and makes them particularly vulnerable to changes in agricultural land use on prairie breeding grounds. Our intent was to quantify how changes in land use and ponds on breeding grounds have influenced pintail population dynamics by developing an integrated population model to analyse over five decades (1961-2014) of band-recovery, breeding population survey, land-use and pond count data. We focused especially on the interactive effects of pond counts and land use on pintail productivity, while accounting for density-dependent processes. Pintail populations responded more strongly to annual variation in productivity than survival. Productivity was positively correlated with pond count and negatively correlated with agricultural intensification. Further, a positive interaction between pond count and agricultural intensification was insufficient to overcome the strong negative effect of agricultural intensification on pintail productivity across nearly all pond counts. The interaction also indicated that pintail populations were more negatively impacted by the decrease in ponds associated with climate change under higher agricultural intensification. Our results indicate that pintail populations have become more vulnerable to climate change under intensified land use, which suggests that future conservation strategies must adapt to these altered relationships. The interactive effects of land use and climate on demography should be considered more frequently in animal ecology, and integrated population models provide an adaptable framework to understand vital rates and their drivers simultaneously.

A range-wide domino effect and resetting of the annual cycle in a migratory songbird.

Latitudinal differences in timing of breeding are well documented but how such differences carry over to influence timing of events in the annual cycle of migratory birds is not well understood. We examined geographical variation in timing of events throughout the year using light-level geolocator tracking data from 133 migratory tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor) originating from 12 North American breeding populations. A swallow's breeding latitude influenced timing of breeding, which then carried over to affect breeding ground departure. This resulted in subsequent effects on the arrival and departure schedules at autumn stopover locations and timing of arrival at non-breeding locations. This 'domino effect' between timing events was no longer apparent by the time individuals departed for spring migration. Our range-wide analysis demonstrates the lasting impact breeding latitude can have on migration schedules but also highlights how such timing relationships can reset when individuals reside at non-breeding sites for extended periods of time.

A blended link approach to relative risk regression.

A binary health outcome may be regressed on covariates using a log link, rather than more typical link functions such as the logit. This allows the exponentiated regression coefficient for each covariate to be interpreted as a relative risk conditional on the remaining covariates. Relative risks are simpler to interpret than the odds ratios which arise with a logit link. There are practical and conceptual challenges in log-link binary regression, mainly due to the requirement that probabilities are less than or equal to 1. Viable probabilities are now usually achieved by the imposition of a constraint on the parameter space, but the log link function is still more work to apply in practice. We propose instead a new smooth link function which is equal to the log up to a cutoff and a linearly scaled logit function above the cutoff. The new approach is conceptually clearer, simpler to implement and generally less biased, and it retains the relative risk interpretation for all but the highest risk individuals. Alternative binary regressions are compared using a simulation study and a diabetic retinopathy dataset.

Integrated population models reveal local weather conditions are the key drivers of population dynamics in an aerial insectivore.

Changes to weather patterns under a warming climate are complex: while warmer temperatures are expected virtually worldwide, decreased mean precipitation is expected at mid-latitudes. Migratory birds depend on broad-scale weather patterns to inform timing of movements, but may be more susceptible to local weather patterns during sedentary periods. We constructed Bayesian integrated population models (IPMs) to assess whether continental or local weather effects best explained population dynamics in an environmentally sensitive aerial insectivorous bird, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a transcontinental gradient from British Columbia to Saskatchewan to New York, and tested whether population dynamics were synchronous among sites. Little consistency existed among sites in the demographic rates most affecting population growth rate or in correlations among rates. Juvenile apparent survival at all sites was stable over time and greatest in New York, whereas adult apparent survival was more variable among years and sites, and greatest in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Fledging success was greatest in Saskatchewan. Local weather conditions explained significant variation in adult survival in Saskatchewan and fledging success in New York, corroborating the hypothesis that local more than continental weather drives the population dynamics of this species and, therefore, demographic synchrony measured at three sites was limited. Nonetheless, multi-population IPMs can be a powerful tool for identifying correlated population trajectories caused by synchronous demographic rates, and can pinpoint the scale at which environmental drivers are responsible for changes. We caution against applying uniform conservation actions for populations where synchrony does not occur or is not fully understood.

The ecology of avian influenza viruses in wild dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) in Canada.

Avian influenza virus (AIV) occurrence and transmission remain important wildlife and human health issues in much of the world, including in North America. Through Canada's Inter-Agency Wild Bird Influenza Survey, close to 20,000 apparently healthy, wild dabbling ducks (of seven species) were tested for AIV between 2005 and 2011. We used these data to identify and evaluate ecological and demographic correlates of infection with low pathogenic AIVs in wild dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) across Canada. Generalized linear mixed effects model analyses revealed that risk of AIV infection was higher in hatch-year birds compared to adults, and was positively associated with a high proportion of hatch-year birds in the population. Males were more likely to be infected than females in British Columbia and in Eastern Provinces of Canada, but more complex relationships among age and sex cohorts were found in the Prairie Provinces. A species effect was apparent in Eastern Canada and British Columbia, where teal (A. discors and/or A. carolinensis) were less likely to be infected than mallards (A. platyrhynchos). Risk of AIV infection increased with the density of the breeding population, in both Eastern Canada and the Prairie Provinces, and lower temperatures preceding sampling were associated with a higher probability of AIV infection in Eastern Canada. Our results provide new insights into the ecological and demographic factors associated with AIV infection in waterfowl.

Seasonal patterns in reproductive success of temperate-breeding birds: Experimental tests of the date and quality hypotheses.

For organisms in seasonal environments, individuals that breed earlier in the season regularly attain higher fitness than their late-breeding counterparts. Two primary hypotheses have been proposed to explain these patterns: The quality hypothesis contends that early breeders are of better phenotypic quality or breed on higher quality territories, whereas the date hypothesis predicts that seasonally declining reproductive success is a response to a seasonal deterioration in environmental quality. In birds, food availability is thought to drive deteriorating environmental conditions, but few experimental studies have demonstrated its importance while also controlling for parental quality. We tested predictions of the date hypothesis in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) over two breeding seasons and in two locations within their breeding range in Canada. Nests were paired by clutch initiation date to control for parental quality, and we delayed the hatching date of one nest within each pair. Subsequently, brood sizes were manipulated to mimic changes in per capita food abundance, and we examined the effects of manipulations, as well as indices of environmental and parental quality, on nestling quality, fledging success, and return rates. Reduced reproductive success of late-breeding individuals was causally related to a seasonal decline in environmental quality. Declining insect biomass and enlarged brood sizes resulted in nestlings that were lighter, in poorer body condition, structurally smaller, had shorter and slower growing flight feathers and were less likely to survive to fledge. Our results provide evidence for the importance of food resources in mediating seasonal declines in offspring quality and survival.

Assessing costs of carrying geolocators using feather corticosterone in two species of aerial insectivore.

Despite benefits of using light-sensitive geolocators to track animal movements and describe patterns of migratory connectivity, concerns have been raised about negative effects of these devices, particularly in small species of aerial insectivore. Geolocators may act as handicaps that increase energetic expenditure, which could explain reported effects of geolocators on survival. We tested this 'Energetic Expenditure Hypothesis' in 12 populations of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) and barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) from North America and Europe, using measurements of corticosterone from feathers (CORTf) grown after deployment of geolocators as a measure of physiology relevant to energetics. Contrary to predictions, neither among- (both species) nor within-individual (tree swallows only) levels of CORTf differed with respect to instrumentation. Thus, to the extent that CORTf reflects energetic expenditure, geolocators apparently were not a strong handicap for birds that returned post-deployment. While this physiological evidence suggests that information about migration obtained from returning geolocator-equipped swallows is unbiased with regard to levels of stress, we cannot discount the possibility that corticosterone played a role in reported effects of geolocators on survival in birds, and suggest that future studies relate corticosterone to antecedent factors, such as reproductive history, and to downstream fitness costs.

Experimental relationships between levels of corticosterone in plasma and feathers in a free-living bird.

Integrated measures of corticosterone (CORT), such as from feathers (CORTf), have intuitive appeal because they incorporate both the duration and amplitude of glucocorticoid secretion. An association between CORTf and plasma CORT has never been shown in wild birds, and it is unclear as to when and whether these measures should be correlated, given that they are fundamentally different yet related measures of physiology. We hypothesized that CORTf should correlate with instantaneous measurements of plasma CORT when the latter reflect sustained changes in the activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. To test this, we experimentally manipulated levels of plasma CORT in wild nestling tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) using 5 day time-release CORT pellets, and measured plasma CORT and growth parameters before, during and at the end of hormone manipulation (days 7, 9 and 11 post-hatch, respectively). CORTf and plasma CORT were significantly positively related only when the latter was at its highest and most variable among individuals (day 9). A similar relationship was expected at day 11, but plasma CORT had returned to near-original levels. Nestlings with higher CORTf were smaller, lighter and less likely to fledge, but we did not detect seasonal effects on CORTf. Our results clearly demonstrate that CORTf from free-living birds can reflect plasma CORT, but correlations may not always be expected, especially if elevations in plasma CORT are relatively modest and of short duration. Our work suggests that CORTf is best used to study the activity of the HPA axis over relatively long time frames and can be used effectively to advance avian ecology.