Can meteorological data improve the short-term prediction of individual milk yield in dairy cows?

Many farms document daily milk yields of individual cows because these are a good indicator of cow well-being. It is established that extreme meteorological conditions influence the milk yields by causing heat and cold stress, whereas less is known about the effects of moderate changes in meteorological conditions. Thus, the aim of the present study was to evaluate whether individual daily milk yield predictions can be improved by considering such changes. We evaluated 8 years of milking and meteorological data from Eastern Switzerland with a total of 33,938 daily milkings from 145 Brown Swiss and 64 Swiss Fleckvieh cows. The cows were aged between 1.9 and 13.5 years at parturition. The data set was split into 7 periods according to the days in milk (DIM) and subsequently filtered into subsets by breed and parity. We applied Gaussian process regression to predict individual daily milk yield. We compared different models including DIM, lagged milk yield, and meteorological variables as features and found that models including the lagged milk yield performed best. Within the period of 5 to 90 DIM, we were able to predict individual next-day milk yield from the cow's last milkings with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.1 kg. In contrast, without information on the previous milk yield, accuracy of milk yield prediction was lower, with an RMSE close to 8 kg. The models holding information about previous milk yields showed a substantial increase in performance. Within a more homogeneous data subset filtered by breed or parity or both, predictions were even better, with a relative RMSE of 4.3% for first-parity Fleckvieh cows. However, we found that including meteorological features, such as temperature, rainfall, wind speed, temperature humidity index, cooling degree, and barometric pressure, did not improve the predictions in any of the evaluated periods. This finding indicates that considering meteorological features in daily milk yield prediction models is not useful in moderate climates; considering lagged milk yield is sufficient. We hypothesize that this meteorological information, among other influences, is indirectly contained in the lagged milk yield.

Effects of small milking stalls on stress responses in dairy cows during milking in group milking parlors.

Milking stall dimensions have not been adapted to the increase in cow body size caused by selection for better milking performance over the past decades. Improper milking stall dimensions might limit cow comfort, could lead to stress responses during milking and thus could negatively affect cow welfare. A crossover study was conducted in an experimental milking parlor that was converted from a herringbone (HB) to a side-by-side (SBS) parlor. The milking stall dimensions were modified in length and width and for HB also in depth (perpendicular distance between rump rail and breast rail). The stall dimensions applied during the experiments ranged from much smaller than common in European dairy farming to much larger. Treatments were applied for 2 wk per milking parlor type. In each milking parlor type, a total of 30 cows, kept in 2 groups were observed during milking for behavioral and physiological stress responses and for milking performance. In addition, milk cortisol levels and somatic cell counts were measured at the end of the 2-wk period. Outcome variables were selected based on a principal component analysis and analyzed using mixed effects models reflecting the experimental design. The results showed that the first cow per milking batch required more time (on average >40 s) to enter very small HB stalls than to enter small, large and very large stalls (<30 s). Also, cows yielded more milk per milking in very small and very large HB stalls than in the small and large milking stall dimensions [very small: 15.8 kg; 95% confidence interval (CI), 14.2-17.4 kg); small: 14.3 kg (95% CI, 12.8-15.9 kg); large: 14.6 kg (95% CI, 13.1-16.1 kg); very large: 16.1 kg (95% CI, 14.6-17.6 kg)]. The other behavioral, physiological and milk flow parameters as well as udder health were not affected by stall dimensions. For the SBS parlor, effects of milking stall dimensions were not detectable in any of the parameters. Despite the strong avoidance behavior to enter the milking parlor (measured as latency), no acute stress responses were found during milking. However, the study cannot exclude long-term effects of narrow stall dimensions on stress levels and possibly udder health, which should be investigated in future studies.

Residential mobility and childhood leukemia.

AIMS: Studies of environmental exposures and childhood leukemia studies do not usually account for residential mobility. Yet, in addition to being a potential risk factor, mobility can induce selection bias, confounding, or measurement error in such studies. Using data collected for California Powerline Study (CAPS), we attempt to disentangle the effect of mobility. METHODS: We analyzed data from a population-based case-control study of childhood leukemia using cases who were born in California and diagnosed between 1988 and 2008 and birth certificate controls. We used stratified logistic regression, case-only analysis, and propensity-score adjustments to assess predictors of residential mobility between birth and diagnosis, and account for potential confounding due to residential mobility. RESULTS: Children who moved tended to be older, lived in housing other than single-family homes, had younger mothers and fewer siblings, and were of lower socioeconomic status. Odds ratios for leukemia among non-movers living <50 meters (m) from a 200+ kilovolt line (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 0.72-3.65) and for calculated fields ≥ 0.4 microTesla (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 0.65-4.52) were slightly higher than previously reported overall results. Adjustments for propensity scores based on all variables predictive of mobility, including dwelling type, increased odds ratios for leukemia to 2.61 (95% CI: 1.76-3.86) for living < 50 m from a 200 + kilovolt line and to 1.98 (1.11-3.52) for calculated fields. Individual or propensity-score adjustments for all variables, except dwelling type, did not materially change the estimates of power line exposures on childhood leukemia. CONCLUSION: The residential mobility of childhood leukemia cases varied by several sociodemographic characteristics, but not by the distance to the nearest power line or calculated magnetic fields. Mobility appears to be an unlikely explanation for the associations observed between power lines exposure and childhood leukemia.

SunSmart: evaluation of a pilot school-based sun protection intervention in Hispanic early adolescents.

The incidence of melanoma is rising among Hispanic populations in the United States. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of a pilot sun safety educational intervention conducted from 2006 to 2012 on Hispanic early adolescents in a high ultraviolet environment. Nineteen schools with high Hispanic enrollment were recruited from urban neighborhoods in Los Angeles. The analytic sample was restricted to students identifying as Hispanic or Latino (n = 777). A mixed effects linear model was used to test mean changes from pre- to posttest on students' sun protection knowledge, attitudes and behaviors. Significant improvements were observed across several cognitive outcomes related to sun protection, including knowledge of and attitudes toward sun protection and self-efficacy to wear sunscreen. However, changes in sun protective behaviors were not achieved. Although some improvements were observed, future studies should identify the factors that motivate sun protection in this population and develop tailored prevention strategies, as improving the sun safe behaviors of Hispanic youths may aid in reducing the risk of melanoma in adulthood in this population.

Improving ergonomics in milking parlors: empirical findings for optimal working heights in five milking parlor types.

Milking postures have shifted from seated milking in tethered stalls to milking in a standing position in parlors. However, the musculoskeletal workload of dairy farmers remains high. Previous studies have shown that different working heights affect ergonomics, but they could not objectively evaluate and quantify the workload. The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of working height in different milking parlor types on the milker's workload during the task of attaching milking clusters. Computer-assisted recording and long-term analysis of movements were used to record positions of joints and body regions while performing certain tasks in terms of angular degrees of joints (ADJ) according to the neutral zero method. The 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles described the distribution of angular degree values measured for each joint. The ADJ were evaluated according to international standards and other scientific literature on the issue to assess the muscular load. The workload was compared between 5 parlor types (auto tandem, herringbone 30°, herringbone 50°, parallel, and rotary) on 15 farms with 2 subjects per parlor and 1 milking period per subject. The working height was defined as a coefficient based on the milker's body height, the floor level, and the cow's udder height. The data recorded during the attachment task were analyzed using generalized linear mixed-effects models taking into account the hierarchical experimental design. The results indicated that the interaction of the cow's udder height, the milker's body height, and the parlor type had a larger effect on ergonomics than each parameter had independently. The interaction was significant in at least 1 of the 3 percentiles in 28 out of 31 ADJ. The postural differences between parlor types, however, were minor. A milking health formula was created to calculate the ideal depth of pit by considering the parlor type, the milker's height, and the mean herd udder height. This formula can be used to develop individual recommendations for future parlor construction.

Birth weight and other perinatal factors and childhood CNS tumors: a case-control study in California.

AIMS: We conducted a large registry-based study in California to investigate the association of perinatal factors and childhood CNS tumors, with analysis by tumor subtype. METHODS: We linked California cancer and birth registries to obtain information on 3308 cases and 3308 controls matched on age and sex. We examined the association of birth weight, gestational age, birth order, parental ages, maternal conditions during pregnancy, newborn abnormalities and the risk of childhood CNS tumors using conditional logistic regression, with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: The odds ratio (OR) per 1000 g increase in birth weight was 1.11 (95% CI: 0.99-1.24) for total childhood CNS tumors, 1.17 (95% CI: 0.97-1.42) for astrocytoma and 1.28 (95% CI: 0.90-1.83) for medulloblastoma. Compared to average-for-gestational age, large-for-gestational age infants were at increased risk of glioma (OR=1.86, 95% CI: 0.99-3.48), while small-for-gestational age infants were at increased risk of ependimoma (OR=2.64, 95% CI: 1.10-6.30). Increased risk of childhood CNS tumors was observed for 5-year increase in maternal and paternal ages (OR=1.06, 95% CI: 1.00-1.12 and 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00-1.10 respectively). Increased risk of astrocytoma was detected for 5-year increase in paternal age (OR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.00-1.16) and increased risk of glioma for maternal age ≥ 35 years old (OR=1.87; 95% CI: 1.00-3.52). Maternal genital herpes during pregnancy was associated with a pronounced increase in risk of total CNS tumors (OR=2.74; 95% CI: 1.16-6.51). Other (non-sexually transmitted) infections during pregnancy were associated with decreased risk of total CNS tumors (OR=0.28, 95% CI: 0.09-0.85). Maternal blood/immune disorders during pregnancy were linked to increased risk of CNS tumors (OR=2.28, 95% CI: 1.08-4.83) and medulloblastoma (OR=7.13, 95% CI: 0.82-61.03). Newborn CNS abnormalities were also associated with high risk of childhood CNS tumors (OR=4.08, 95% CI: 1.13-14.76). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that maternal genital herpes, blood and immunological disorders during pregnancy and newborn CNS abnormalities were associated with increased risk of CNS tumors. Maternal infections during pregnancy were associated with decreased risk of CNS tumors. Advanced maternal and paternal ages may be associated with a slightly increased risk of CNS tumors. Factors associated with CNS tumor subtypes varied by subtype, an indicator of different etiology for different subtypes.

Birth weight and other perinatal characteristics and childhood leukemia in California.

AIMS: We conducted a large registry-based study in California to investigate the association of perinatal factors and childhood leukemia with analysis of two major subtypes, acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). METHODS: We linked California cancer and birth registries to obtain information on 5788 cases and 5788 controls matched on age and sex (1:1). We examined the association of birth weight, gestational age, birth and pregnancy order, parental ages, and specific conditions during pregnancy and risk of total leukemia, ALL and AML using conditional logistic regression, with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: The odds ratio (OR) per 1000 g increase in birth weight was 1.11 for both total leukemia and ALL. The OR were highest for babies weighing ≥ 4500 g with reference < 2500 g: 1.59 (95% CI: 1.05-2.40) and 1.70 (95% CI: 1.08-2.68) for total leukemia and ALL, respectively. For AML, increase in risk was also observed but the estimate was imprecise due to small numbers. Compared to average-for-gestational age (AGA), large-for-gestational age (LGA) babies were at slightly increased risk of total childhood leukemia (OR = 1.10) and both ALL and AML (OR = 1.07 and OR = 1.13, respectively) but estimates were imprecise. Being small-for-gestational age (SGA) was associated with reduced risk of childhood leukemia (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97) and ALL (OR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.63-0.94), but not AML. Being first-born was associated with decreased risk of AML only (OR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.53-0.93). Compared to children with paternal age <25 years, children with paternal age between 35 and 45 years were at increased risk of total childhood leukemia (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.04-1.40) and ALL (OR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.04-1.47). None of conditions during pregnancy examined or maternal age were associated with increased risk of childhood leukemia or its subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that high birth weight and LGA were associated with increased risk and SGA with decreased risk of total childhood leukemia and ALL, being first-born was associated with decreased risk of AML, and advanced paternal age was associated with increased risk of ALL. These findings suggest that associations of childhood leukemia and perinatal factors depend highly on subtype of leukemia.

Transitioning from a hospital rehabilitation programme to home: exploring the experiences of people with complex regional pain syndrome.

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is difficult to diagnose and is characterised by burning pain in one or more limbs. Treatment is palliative not curative and focuses on improving function. This requires patients to make long-term changes to their behaviour. As with all such regimens, adherence is often poor. This study explored the lived experience of 10 patients who had returned home after completing a two-week in-patient treatment programme. The interviews focused on how they coped with the transition from hospital to home, and on the things that they considered had facilitated or hindered this transition. Battling for control was an overarching theme that connected the four superordinate themes: 'gaining momentum' that facilitated the implementation of treatment advice, 'distance from the pool of expertise' that detailed the barriers to adherence experienced; 'It helped me realise it was not all in my head' that detailed a facilitative process, and the 'nag list' that was a technique patients' used to garner support. This article offers insights into the transition experience. A key outcome is the recognition of the need to better prepare patients for their transition back home.

Evidence of genetic susceptibility to infectious mononucleosis: a twin study.

Infectious mononucleosis is a clinical manifestation of primary Epstein-Barr virus infection. It is unknown whether genetic factors contribute to risk. To assess heritability, we compared disease concordance in monozygotic to dizygotic twin pairs from the population-based California Twin Program and assessed the risk to initially unaffected co-twins. One member of 611 and both members of 58 twin pairs reported a history of infectious mononucleosis. Pairwise concordance in monozygotic and dizygotic pairs was respectively 12·1% [standard error (s.e.)=1·9%] and 6·1% (s.e.=1·2%). The relative risk (hazard ratio) of monozygotic compared to dizygotic unaffected co-twins of cases was 1·9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·1-3·4, P=0·03], over the follow-up period. When the analysis was restricted to same-sex twin pairs, that estimate was 2·5 (95% CI 1·2-5·3, P=0·02). The results are compatible with a heritable contribution to the risk of infectious mononucleosis.

Ventricular mass index using magnetic resonance imaging accurately estimates pulmonary artery pressure.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can provide accurate anatomical measurements of the cardiac ventricles. This study investigated whether a calculated ventricular mass index (VMI) would provide an accurate means of estimating pulmonary artery pressure noninvasively, and compared the results with conventional Doppler echocardiography and invasive measurement. A total of 26 subjects referred for investigation of pulmonary hypertension were studied by MRI and echocardiography within 2 weeks of cardiac catheterisation. The correlations for mean pulmonary artery pressure were as follows: VMI (ratio of right ventricular mass over left ventricular mass) r=0.81; pulmonary artery systolic pressure (echocardiography) r=0.77. The confidence intervals for the VMI were narrower than for echocardiography. Sensitivity and specificity for pulmonary hypertension were 84 and 71% respectively for the VMI compared with 89 and 57% for echocardiography. The calculated ventricular mass index provides an accurate and practical means of estimating pulmonary artery pressure noninvasively in pulmonary hypertension and may provide a more accurate estimate than Doppler echocardiography. This may be because it reflects the right ventricular response to sustained pulmonary hypertension over a long period and is not influenced by short-term physiological variables affecting echocardiography, such as heart rate, posture, hydration status and oxygen supplementation.

Development and representativeness of a large population-based cohort of native Californian twins.

We have established a large cohort of twins to facilitate studies of the role of genetics and environment in the development of disease. The cohort has been derived from all multiple births occurring in California between 1908-82 (256,616 in total). We report here on our efforts to contact these twins and their completion of a detailed 16 page risk factor questionnaire. Addresses of the individuals were obtained by linking the birth records with the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) roster of licensees. To date this has been completed for twins born between 1908 and 1972 (200,589 individuals). The linkage has revealed 112,468 matches and, because of less complete DMV records in some years, was less successful in older females than in younger females and all males. Over 41,000 twins have participated by completing the questionnaire. Based on estimates of numbers of individuals receiving a questionnaire, we estimate our crude response rate to be between 42.2% and 49.6%, highest among females in their 40s (62.8%). We describe the representativeness of the twins in the original birth cohort, those identified by the linkage, and those completing the questionnaire. Compared to the 1990 resident population of California-born resident singletons, the respondents were of similar age, sex, race and residential distribution (for although we were able to locate fewer older females, they had a higher response rate), but were less likely to have been educated for more than 12 years. We provide a brief synopsis of studies nested within this cohort. We also elucidate our plans for expanding the cohort in the near future.

Determinants of melanoma in a case-control study of twins (United States).

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the relative contribution of environmental and genetic factors disposing towards the development of melanoma. METHODS: We investigated risk factors for melanoma in a case-control study conducted among 185 North American twin pairs in which one was diagnosed with melanoma and the other (the co-twin of the case) was not. We considered monozygous (MZ) and dyzygous (DZ) twins separately. RESULTS: While greater risk of melanoma was associated with number of large nevi in DZ twins (adjusted OR = 26.6 (4.2-170.8) for three or more large moles), this was not the case for MZ twins (adjusted OR = 1.4 (0.6-3.2) for three or more large moles). Elevated risks of developing melanoma with site-specific sun exposures resulting in sunburn also appeared to be confined to DZ twins. Despite the number of identical twins reporting a difference in mole prevalence, we observed only a modest and inconsistent increase in melanoma risk attributable to that factor, whereas the increase within fraternal twin pairs was larger by an order of magnitude. CONCLUSIONS: If confirmed, this indicates that the significance of mole prevalence as a risk factor for melanoma is largely as a genetic, rather than an environmental, factor. We noticed an increased risk of developing melanoma among DZ twins who drank moderate amounts of beer, but we believe this result may be due to the sun-exposure activities of those people most likely to drink moderate amounts of beer.

Trialkylphosphine-stabilized copper-phenyltellurolate complexes: from small molecules to nanoclusters via condensation reactions.

Reactions of CuCl with Te(Ph)SiMe3 and solublizing trialkylphosphine ligands afford a series of polynuclear copper-phenyltellurolate complexes that has been structurally characterized. The formation of the complexes is found to be highly dependent on the ancillary phosphine ligand used. The synthesis and structures of [Cu2(mu-TePh)2(PMe3)4] 1, [Cu4(mu3-TePh)4(PPr(i)3)3] 2, [Cu5(mu-TePh)3(mu3-TePh)3(PEt3)3][PEt3Ph] 3, and [Cu12Te3(mu3-TePh)6(PEt3)6] 4 are described. The telluride (Te(2-)) ligands in 4 arise from the generation of TePh2 in the reaction mixtures. The subsequent co-condensation of clusters 3 and 4 leads to the generation of the nanometer sized complex [Cu29Te9(mu3-TePh)10(mu4-TePh)2(PEt3)8][PEt3Ph] 5 in good yield, in addition to small amounts of [Cu39(mu3-TePh)10(mu4-TePh)Te16(PEt3)13] 6. These complexes are formed via the photo elimination of TePh2. The cyclic voltammogram of 5 in THF solution exhibits two oxidation waves, assigned to the oxidation of the Cu(I) centers.

Recall bias in self-reported melanoma risk factors.

The evidence implicating sun exposure in the etiology of melanoma derives largely from case-control studies in which the retrospective assessment of sun exposure suggests potential for significant recall bias. Previous attempts at characterizing and quantifying that bias have had significant methodological limitations. In the International Twin Study, a case-control study of melanoma risk factors in twins conducted from 1980 to 1991, the authors asked melanoma cases and their co-twins to quantify their own exposures and asked which twin had the greater exposure. Recall bias was investigated by assuming that, if bias had occurred, the odds ratio based on the case's response would differ significantly from the odds ratio based on the co-twin's response. Case-derived odds ratios were higher than the odds ratios for the controls for sunbathing in childhood and adulthood and for mole frequency and freckling in childhood, suggesting some recall bias. The odds ratios for ease of burning and tanning appeared unbiased. The belief that sunlight was a cause of melanoma appeared related to an increased odds ratio for sunbathing as a child. There is a continuing need to carefully assess recall bias in the study of melanoma risk factors.

Validation of the saliva-based H. pylori test, heliSAL, and its use in prevalence surveys.

The saliva-based H. pylori test, HeliSAL, is insufficiently accurate for use in the clinical setting. However, its ease of use and non-invasiveness make it attractive for population-based studies of the epidemiology of H. pylori. We validated HeliSAL, and comment here on its usefulness in prevalence surveys. One hundred and ninety-six patients receiving endoscopy at a clinic in New Zealand provided saliva samples for H. pylori assessment, which were compared to CLOtest (Delta West Pty Ltd, Western Australia) as a gold standard measure. Nineteen percent were truly H. pylori positive, 41% were positive according to HeliSAL. Test sensitivity was 74% and specificity was 67%. While HeliSAL is not well suited for the clinical diagnosis of H. pylori infection, it may be useful for large-scale prevalence surveys because, provided it is validated locally, mathematical adjustment can be made for misclassification. Being inexpensive, non-invasive, and easily stored and handled, HeliSAL may be a valuable tool for studies of the epidemiology of H. pylori.

The role of epidemiology in understanding the health effects of Helicobacter pylori.

Helicobacter pylori infects one-half or more of the world population and causes chronic gastritis, peptic ulcer, and probably gastric cancer as well. The public-health impact of this infection is far from trivial. Chronic gastritis and peptic ulcer disease are common across populations. Gastric cancer rates have declined during this century, but this cancer remains second among causes of cancer deaths worldwide. Much has been learned about biological and clinical aspects of H. pylori, but key epidemiologic questions have not been answered. How infection results in diverse diseases, the precise modes of transmission, and a comprehensive solution to H. pylori as a public-health problem remain elusive. In this paper, we highlight methodologic challenges and outline an agenda for future research. Challenges include improving validation of detection methods and considering the limitations of these methods when interpreting epidemiologic data. The role of cofactors in H. pylori-induced diseases requires extensive exploration. Many intriguing areas of H. pylori research require the skills of epidemiologists. The discovery of an infectious etiology of common chronic diseases presents a promising opportunity for improving public health.

Skin characteristics and risk of superficial spreading and nodular melanoma (United States).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk for melanoma associated with moles and pigmentary characteristics. METHODS: Representative melanoma cases (773) among non-Hispanic white residents under age 65 occurring between 1 June 1978 and I December 1983 in Los Angeles County were compared to controls (752) matched to cases by age, sex, race and neighborhood of residence. Factors considered include hair, eye, and skin color; numbers of freckles and moles; and propensity to burn and tan obtained during an in-person interview. RESULTS: Five hundred and fifty-one cases were classified as superficial spreading melanoma (SSM) and 110 as nodular melanoma (NM). For SSM, the important risk determinants were hair and skin color, freckling, and mole prevalence. Light skin and more freckles were found to be more highly associated with SSM for younger compared to older subjects, whereas the associations between SSM and both hair color and moles remained independent of age. NM showed patterns of risk similar to SSM with the exception of skin color. NM showed no evidence of increasing risk with lighter skin, as compared to the strong association seen for SSM. CONCLUSION: Hair and skin color, freckling and, especially, numbers and size of moles are important determinants of melanoma risk.